LaxSabre
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Player Discussion - Jack Eichel - Part 3 - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2180021&page=40
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It would be great if some posters understood that Eichel' deal, just like McDavid's and Draisatl's, is based largely on potential and that they will be going forward. They are not based on a player "earning" them with just their play to date as the basis for them.
Projections are based on results to date, so it's a mix of both.
He's "earned" a deal that assumes he can put up 60 points a year, play mediocre in his end, put up half the ES PPG of McDavid and thrive off of being on the #1PP in the league. $6M player.
He projects to be able to keep up his better pace from last year, put up 75 points (improving his ES scoring marginally, and probably not enjoy being on the #1PP two years in a row), improve his play away from the puck enough to be considered our #1C, and take this team to the playoffs if the D dramatically improves. $8M player.
Then, in some poster's minds, he also projects to dramatically improve his even-strength scoring, by like 66%, compete for the Hart, and be the #1C on a team that advances in the playoffs. $10M player, accounting for the long-term nature of the deal and the cap rising.
I think I and everybody else are already building in a safe degree of projection into what we're comfortable paying him. It's just that the $10M+ figure might incorporate projections that just aren't this player.
He is the most important part of the #1PP, you seem to be implying he's freeloading easy points. The Sabres PP was 11th in the league when Eichel was out until nearly December. When he came back the PP improved 32% to go to #1.
He is absolutely frightening on the PP.
Projections are based on results to date, so it's a mix of both.
He's "earned" a deal that assumes he can put up 60 points a year, play mediocre in his end, put up half the ES PPG of McDavid and thrive off of being on the #1PP in the league. $6M player.
He projects to be able to keep up his better pace from last year, put up 75 points (improving his ES scoring marginally, and probably not enjoy being on the #1PP two years in a row), improve his play away from the puck enough to be considered our #1C, and take this team to the playoffs if the D dramatically improves. $8M player.
Then, in some poster's minds, he also projects to dramatically improve his even-strength scoring, by like 66%, compete for the Hart, and be the #1C on a team that advances in the playoffs. $10M player, accounting for the long-term nature of the deal and the cap rising.
I think I and everybody else are already building in a safe degree of projection into what we're comfortable paying him. It's just that the $10M+ figure might incorporate projections that just aren't this player.
Wow. The idea that there is any argument to be made for Eichel getting 6mil per on a 8yr deal is just....... Even the argument for 8mil per, with the market reset by McDavid and Draisaitl, doesn't make any sense either. It comes down to where you think Eichel falls between McDavid and Draisaitl. 8mil is not in that range.
They're getting paid for their future production, too. Not that it matters so much, since they both may have just hit their career highs for points.
And I would argue they are overpaid.
If Draisaitl set the market, Eichel is worth $10M, for sure. So is ROR, and Reinhart's over $7M.
He benefits the players around him and they benefit him. I don't think it matters whether you give him 100% credit for the PP or what, the point is that part of his production has hit its ceiling.
He scored 33 ESP, and 24 PPP. The PPP aren't going to improve except as a product of playing a full season. McDavid only got 27 last year. If he's going to be, say, a 90 point forward, it's going to be from improving his even strength points per game by, like, 40%.
That's the kind of paying him for his future production I wouldn't assume.
They're getting paid for their future production, too. Not that it matters so much, since they both may have just hit their career highs for points.
And I would argue they are overpaid.
If Draisaitl set the market, Eichel is worth $10M, for sure. So is ROR, and Reinhart's over $7M.
Where did you get the idea that if our PP isn't #1 that means Eichel's PP production automatically goes down?
Yeah I know, thats why I said that in the post you initially quoted.
Eichel's production probabilistically goes down, is that better?
What I really said: His PP points overall are not going up substantially more than you would expect from just playing more games, and his PPP/gm may even go down. I'm not saying he's getting 23 PPP or less guaranteed. I'm saying that if posters are projecting him getting to, say, 90 points, the vast majority of the difference is coming from ES.
Where does his even strength points per game rank in the league?
Where did the team's ES PPG rank? With their effectiveness on the power play, I think it's logical to assume that they would see significant offensive improvement with a better 5 on 5 system, in which Eichel doesn't spend minutes at a time in his own zone.
If it's gonna improve his ESP/g by like, 40% over last year, that's the kind of thing I'd like to test out before paying for it.
“They’re still going back and forth,†said NHL Insider Darren Dreger during a Friday morning conversation on Buffalo’s WGR 550. “I wouldn’t say that it’s a strained negotiation by any sense. Obviously Jack and his representatives feel that based on what the market has proven in this off-season that he’s a key piece and needs to be shown that market value. So there has to be an understanding here that they haven’t quite reached. But I don’t think that we should read into that in a negative fashion either.
“My sense a week or even two weeks ago was that they were still very hopeful that they would get a settlement done here, they would reach an agreement prior to the start of the season. There’s still that possibility, but I’m now getting the sense that – certainly from the player’s perspective – he’s okay starting the season without this contract extension in place. I know that that’s not best case for a lot of guys because who wants to talk about it through training camp and obviously a good part of the regular season. And it’s not just the questions that you face in Buffalo. I mean, you face that in pretty much every city that you visit. Every reported wants to hear the same thing: ‘Is the contract negotiation a distraction?’
“So because of all of those things, I think it would be preferred to get a contract extension done prior to the start of the year. But as I said, I don’t get – from the player’s perspective – that he’s losing any sleep over it at this point. So that just means that it’s still a healthy dialog going back and forth between the club and the player.â€
Projections are based on results to date, so it's a mix of both.
He's "earned" a deal that assumes he can put up 60 points a year, play mediocre in his end, put up half the ES PPG of McDavid and thrive off of being on the #1PP in the league. $6M player.
He projects to be able to keep up his better pace from last year, put up 75 points (improving his ES scoring marginally, and probably not enjoy being on the #1PP two years in a row), improve his play away from the puck enough to be considered our #1C, and take this team to the playoffs if the D dramatically improves. $8M player.
Then, in some poster's minds, he also projects to dramatically improve his even-strength scoring, by like 66%, compete for the Hart, and be the #1C on a team that advances in the playoffs. $10M player, accounting for the long-term nature of the deal and the cap rising.
I think I and everybody else are already building in a safe degree of projection into what we're comfortable paying him. It's just that the $10M+ figure might incorporate projections that just aren't this player.
He benefits the players around him and they benefit him. I don't think it matters whether you give him 100% credit for the PP or what, the point is that part of his production has hit its ceiling.
He scored 33 ESP, and 24 PPP. The PPP aren't going to improve except as a product of playing a full season. McDavid only got 27 last year. If he's going to be, say, a 90 point forward, it's going to be from improving his even strength points per game by, like, 40%.
That's the kind of paying him for his future production I wouldn't assume.
I know, so why ignore it when I'm clearly agreeing with your own argument to say we should look forward? Everybody gets paid based on what they're expected to do going forward. My $6M figure is just the result you'd get if you got what you're accusing me of: nonsense analysis where one only pays Eichel based on a career year of 57 points.
My point is, if I were doing THAT kind of nonsense analysis, as you're saying I am, I'dd be getting a much lower figure than what I'd even like to see here.
But yeah, $8M already ****ing factors in that he's going to improve. $9M factors in that he can ask for more than he's worth because he's got the franchise over the barrel. $10M is just paying for a different player.
With Eichel being OK with a deal not being in place to start the season, it sure seems to me that there is a sizable gap between team and player on the money side of the equation.
Nailed it.
$2M savings on a 2018-19 $75M cap with ~half or ~$37M tied up with 7 skaters, with Eichel and Reinhart due, and expecting </= $6M total in goal. Yes, I'd prefer to save the $2M per.Nailed what? Nitpicking over a couple million? The scale for franchise players is already $4m wide with an $8m floor. Arguing about $10m being too much because they'd be "paying for different player" is a waste of breath. There's no list of qualifications or expectations that declares a players value- he's worth what the market has determined for his situation. McDavid set the high end, Johansen set the floor, and Eichel benefits from the rising tide.
"Now" lasts for at least another month.I think the Sabres are going to regret not locking him up now. He's going to put up stupid numbers this year and make them pay for it.
They'll be happy to shell out the cash then because he "earned it". Still could be had for less now though.