Player Discussion: J.T. Miller

[Sky04]

Also - my guess is he let's Miller go to arbitration and lives with the one year deal awarded, then let's him walk in the off-season as a ufa. We can afford him for a year, but beyond that we have to use more ELCs.

Eh, kind of wary on Yzerman handing out term on contracts, he loves getting that annual average down by giving out more term, usually because he's good at maneuvering those contracts towards the end of it. Not sure Miller is a long term piece here so hopefully we go the arbitration path.

 

[More 2004]

My guess is SY offers him a 2-3 year deal, trading his rights is another option if he doesn't work out this season.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Also - my guess is he let's Miller go to arbitration and lives with the one year deal awarded, then let's him walk in the off-season as a ufa. We can afford him for a year, but beyond that we have to use more ELCs.

That's an absolutely dumb thing to do. Why let a 26 year old who has scored 20 goals a couple of times and over 50 points before just walk? Would be better to just trade his rights this offseason for a couple of picks then lose him for nothing. Sign a UFA vet to replace him for the year and let that guy walk.

 

[Todd1a]

That's an absolutely dumb thing to do. Why let a 26 year old who has scored 20 goals a couple of times and over 50 points before just walk? Would be better to just trade his rights this offseason for a couple of picks then lose him for nothing. Sign a UFA vet to replace him for the year and let that guy walk.

And that’s what is going to happen you know yzerman can’t stand not have all his draft picks he will want to recoup some

 

[Todd1a]

Given SFY MO I would guess he offers what he thinks is the right contract, and sticks to that. 3 or 4 year bridge deal @4.5m

He already had a bridge deal

 

[Rschmitz]

Yeah no way Yzerman let's Miller walk

 

[The Macho King]

Yeah no way Yzerman let's Miller walk

Same situation as Namestnikov (if not worse). After next season we have to re-sign Kucherov, Point, and Gourde, and decide what to do with McDonagh. We are deep at forward in our prospect pool - Miller seems to be the obvious candidate to let walk.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Same situation as Namestnikov (if not worse). After next season we have to re-sign Kucherov, Point, and Gourde, and decide what to do with McDonagh. We are deep at forward in our prospect pool - Miller seems to be the obvious candidate to let walk.

Those players are up when Coburn, Girardi and Stralman are up. We would be better off letting all them walk and free up 11.2 then a 26 year old Miller. You let 30+ year old defenders walk for free not in their prime top 6 or 9 forwards.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

i just want to say, i think that we either let him walk - or not let him walk, but we definitely choose one of those. probably

 

[Hoek]

Edit: Whoops missed earlier replies. Regardless I don't think we just do one year and then waste an asset if we can help it. He will have trade value even if he's not a long term piece.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

We might have to trade him this summer if anything.

 

[Rschmitz]

Same situation as Namestnikov (if not worse). After next season we have to re-sign Kucherov, Point, and Gourde, and decide what to do with McDonagh. We are deep at forward in our prospect pool - Miller seems to be the obvious candidate to let walk.

I don't disagree and I don't necessarily think he re-signs. I just don't think Yzerman would milk that last team controlled year and let him walk for nothing. A young NHLer producing like Miller is, Stevie is wise enough to leverage that into some assets he can maneuver later.

 

[Sky04]

Point, Gourde and Kucherov need to be re-signed the year after Miller while also being weary of Vasilevski and Sergachev needing a raise the following year.

Why would you want to lock in a forward who will be between our 5th-8th best at an upwards of 5m when half our cap will be allocated to 7 forwards before him? I mean just crunching numbers we'd be extremely tight to the cap IF it's going up as projected, I mean I guess it's fine as long as you don't hand him a NTC/NMC, then you could always sign him first and move him later.

 

[Rschmitz]

Point, Gourde and Kucherov need to be re-signed the year after Miller while also being weary of Vasilevski and Sergachev needing a raise the following year.

Why would you want to lock in a forward who will be between our 5th-8th best at an upwards of 5m when half our cap will be allocated to 7 forwards before him? I mean just crunching numbers we'd be extremely tight to the cap IF it's going up as projected, I mean I guess it's fine as long as you don't hand him a NTC/NMC, then you could always sign him first and move him later.

See above. If you can't sign him to a long term team friendly contract you trade him. Going to arbitration as a last resort.

 

[TampaJay]

Point, Gourde and Kucherov need to be re-signed the year after Miller while also being weary of Vasilevski and Sergachev needing a raise the following year.

Why would you want to lock in a forward who will be between our 5th-8th best at an upwards of 5m when half our cap will be allocated to 7 forwards before him? I mean just crunching numbers we'd be extremely tight to the cap IF it's going up as projected, I mean I guess it's fine as long as you don't hand him a NTC/NMC, then you could always sign him first and move him later.

You just described Namestnikov and since it was likely that we were going to move Vlady this summer, all the same applies to Miller: RFA after a bridge wanting around $5 mil long term. Miller will likely be a cap casualty, not because they couldn’t fit him in next year, but because his contract would hurt the ability to make future more important signings. He also provides a means to recoup a pick lost in the trade. The only logical reason to sign Miller long term is if you have made the decision to replace one of Palat, Johnson, or Killorn with Miller.

 

[These Are The Days]

I've never been super high on the NYR offense these last couple of years. Kreider, Miller, Vesey and Hayes are literally just USA versions of Alex Killorn but to Kreider's credit he's got more physical upside and better than Killorn is. I'd have taken him in a second here. But if Miller has to walk then so be it because we already have the actual Killorn to give us a headache 35 games a year. Not when Miller's money can be going to Gourde, Point, Vasy, Kucherov, McDonagh. The less flakes this offense has the better.

We've potentially got 5 main offensive pieces in Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Gourde and Killorn, a defense built around Hedman, McDonagh and Sergachev and the potential Vezina winner in net. That is a HELL of a nucleus.

Edit: Legitimately forgot about Drej LMAO it's been so long since he's been in the lineup.

Double edit: AND Johnson. Holy crap I'm getting a coffee before I post again

 

[waterboy65]

If the Bolts do win the Cup this year or make a deep playoff run, players like Miller and Killorn and Johnson are likely going to have to play well for us. Playoff exposure tends to blind other teams to the warts we see in these players during the regular season. I can easily see other teams taking on the Contracts of a Killorn or Johnson because they will be bringing that Cup experience to their teams. If that is the case then Miller could become affordable if the others are traded.

 

[HoseEmDown]

We have 19 players on the roster under contract for next year with about 6.25 in space. We can sign Koekkoek, Paquette and Erne to cheap deals under 1mil, we would need 1 more player to get to 23 with about 3.5 left. Miller wanting 5 is not ideal but the cap should go up more than 1.5 so we can fit him in. We can then look to see who we can get the most value on in Johnson, Palat, Killorn or Miller and move one for a top 4 RD who hopefully makes less, a cheaper top 9 forward + or picks and prospects. No need to just let him walk.

 

[Werewolf]

With McDonagh here we can trade Coburn to recoup some picks. With Masin ready for his cup of coffee we can also move Koekkoek. Sustr isn’t re-signed. Foote can play next to Hedman or McDonagh as soon as next year. Cernak is ready for his cup of coffee so we can move Dotchin as well.

Hedman - Stralman
McDonagh - Foote
Sergachev - Girardi
*cheap 7th D signing that can ride pine.

Masin - Cernak as Syracuse depth.

I think Yzerman can potentially move a lot of pieces on the defensive side that can give us some more cap flexibility.

 

[TampaJay]

We have 19 players on the roster under contract for next year with about 6.25 in space. We can sign Koekkoek, Paquette and Erne to cheap deals under 1mil, we would need 1 more player to get to 23 with about 3.5 left. Miller wanting 5 is not ideal but the cap should go up more than 1.5 so we can fit him in. We can then look to see who we can get the most value on in Johnson, Palat, Killorn or Miller and move one for a top 4 RD who hopefully makes less, a cheaper top 9 forward + or picks and prospects. No need to just let him walk.

That would make sense… to choose the one of the four who brought back the most value, but the problem is the NTCs because they eliminate the choice. Killorn can’t be moved until 2020, Palat not until 2021. Johnson can be moved at the draft, but after July 1 he has a full NTC for the next three years. So if Johnson stays, that leaves just Miller, and that is assuming he doesn’t get a full NTC in his next contract.

 

[HoseEmDown]

That would make sense… to choose the one of the four who brought back the most value, but the problem is the NTCs because they eliminate the choice. Killorn can’t be moved until 2020, Palat not until 2021. Johnson can be moved at the draft, but after July 1 he has a full NTC for the next three years. So if Johnson stays, that leaves just Miller, and that is assuming he doesn’t get a full NTC in his next contract.

You just ask them to waive. A NTC clause means you have to ask them to waive before you trade them. If they say no you ask the next, if they all say no then you have a problem but these guys are too young and haven't won anything to refuse to waive if asked.

 

[TampaJay]

You just ask them to waive. A NTC clause means you have to ask them to waive before you trade them. If they say no you ask the next, if they all say no then you have a problem but these guys are too young and haven't won anything to refuse to waive if asked.

That’s not a cap management plan, that’s a hope. The player has all the leverage. They paid in reduced salary for those NTCs because they are important to them. Just about any team they were moved to would mean a reduction in take home pay. If you are going into negotiations with Kuch and Point and you have to convince another player to waive to make it work, you’ve put yourself in a box.

 

[Sky04]

I've never been super high on the NYR offense these last couple of years. Kreider, Miller, Vesey and Hayes are literally just USA versions of Alex Killorn but to Kreider's credit he's got more physical upside and better than Killorn is. I'd have taken him in a second here. But if Miller has to walk then so be it because we already have the actual Killorn to give us a headache 35 games a year. Not when Miller's money can be going to Gourde, Point, Vasy, Kucherov, McDonagh. The less flakes this offense has the better.

We've potentially got 5 main offensive pieces in Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Gourde and Killorn, a defense built around Hedman, McDonagh and Sergachev and the potential Vezina winner in net. That is a HELL of a nucleus.

Edit: Legitimately forgot about Drej LMAO it's been so long since he's been in the lineup.

Double edit: AND Johnson. Holy crap I'm getting a coffee before I post again

Miller is barely worth more than Killorn if even given his playoff production, 5m is the most you give this guy, anything more is addition by subtraction with him off the team. Wah, wah assets - cap management is equally important. Already mentioned by 2020 we'll have nearly 45m tied up to forwards in Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Gourde, Palat, Johnson and Killorn, as of right now he'd be our 6th or 7th best foward - his value is driven down on the Lightning because we're already deep on offense, unless he can take it up to another level I don't see a point in signing him long term for little value especially if he becomes a roadblock in terms of cap down the line. I'll take a rookie or AHLer scoring 30-40 points at 1m than Miller at 5m+ scoring 50.

Palat-Stamkos-Kucherov
Gourde-Point-Johnson
Killorn-
-Cirelli-

We don't need so many players on long term contracts, lineups should be fluid there's a reason teams look so different after 3 years. Even Palat and Johnson who we thought we core a couple years ago have already been upped by Gourde and Point.

 

[HoseEmDown]

You don't have to sign him long term but you don't sign him for 1 year that takes him to UFA and just let him walk. You sign him to a 2 or 3 years, we can fit him next year, then we look to move him or one of the other forwards before Kucherov and Point are due.

 

[Sky04]

You don't have to sign him long term but you don't sign him for 1 year that takes him to UFA and just let him walk. You sign him to a 2 or 3 years, we can fit him next year, then we look to move him or one of the other forwards before Kucherov and Point are due.

How would it make sense for him to only take a 2 year deal? He doesn't owe us anything and has enough consistency in his production to warrant term, hence why the arbitration argument was brought up, it's either that or 5-7 years.

He just signed a 2 year prove it contract with the rangers last year and he's going to do another one heading into ufa? Don't think so.