Ivan Provorov and the Transition Game

[LastWordArmy]

A look at Ivan Provorov's transition game metrics.

Philadelphia Flyers: Ivan Provorov in Transition - Last Word on Hockey

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[Ghosts Beer]

Interesting info. Gudas comes up looking really bad by these metrics.

 

[Magua]

Gudas never grades out that well by entry/exit data. There’s correlation with possession numbers but not always. Mattias Ekholm usually doesn’t grade out well either. Many examples of defensemen who overcome it by other means.

 

[TB87]

Philadelphia Flyers: Ivan Provorov in Transition - Last Word on Hockey

 

[TB87]

Interesting info. Gudas comes up looking really bad by these metrics.

I can't speak to how he graded out by these metrics in Tampa. As for his time in Philadelphia, I can attest to his troubles here. His outlet passes tend to be extremely inaccurate. Which is why he has so many icings. You'd think he'd see that as a problem that needs fixing.

 

[Rebels57]

Good stuff. Provy and Ghost are both beasts at both ends of the ice.

MacDonalds Entry Defense numbers are f***ing hilarious

 

[TB87]

Good stuff. Provy and Ghost are both beasts at both ends of the ice.

MacDonalds Entry Defense numbers are ****ing hilarious

Yep! MacDonald rolls out the red carpet for opponents on zone entries.

 

[Rebels57]

Yep! MacDonald rolls out the red carpet for opponents on zone entries.

It's something we all know and bring up when discussing him all the time, but those numbers are still shocking lol

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I can't speak to how he graded out by these metrics in Tampa. As for his time in Philadelphia, I can attest to his troubles here. His outlet passes tend to be extremely inaccurate. Which is why he has so many icings. You'd think he'd see that as a problem that needs fixing.

True, Gudas does seem to ice the puck an awful lot.

Yep! MacDonald rolls out the red carpet for opponents on zone entries.

AMac has always been known (and rightly criticized) for how much he backs in on opponents' offensive carry-ins. The funny thing is I thought he did a better job this season, and he still conceded like crazy according to the stats.

I will say that AMac's zone exits at least grade out as average.

 

[Lindberg]

Gudas never grades out that well by entry/exit data. There’s correlation with possession numbers but not always. Mattias Ekholm usually doesn’t grade out well either. Many examples of defensemen who overcome it by other means.

Gudas is a player that concerns me. If he can't play his intimidating hitting game he's just not very good.

 

[Tripod]

I am impressed seeing where Sanheim is in those rankings.....4 times top 3, other 3 times top 4....never lower.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Behold, a visual representation of why it was incredibly stupid to sit Sanheim for Hagg.

 

[deadhead]

I thought Sanheim was sat for Manning.
Whose numbers aren't that different, but who actually scored real points instead of Corsi phantom points. (0.98 PP/60 5x5 v 0.75 for Sanheim).

Sanheim's talent is undeniable, but he wasn't a good player last year, rather, a mediocre player who flashed talent but couldn't close the deal on offense and made too many mistakes. Looking good isn't the same as playing good.

Hopefully, like Lindblom, with some experience under his belt, Sanheim will be able to finish plays this year.
This is why many players make big jumps after a year or two, the difference between making plays and failing to do so is often small, a tenth of a second, a better feel for the flow of the game. With experience, the game slows down and players know when to rush and to wait.

Last year, we had two marginal 1st pair defensemen (Provorov and Ghost played well but are still works in progress) 4 3rd pair defensemen and Hagg.
The difference between Gudas and Hagg is "veteranosity," Gudas is as limited but knows how to be effective within his limitations most of the time.
But it also suggests that Hagg can improve with experience, because Gudas has been generally effective with the same limited skills.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Sanheim was better than Gudas, MacD, Manning, and Hagg. Do you think it is good coaching to play so many inferior players over a superior player?

 

[Magua]

Gudas is a player that concerns me. If he can't play his intimidating hitting game he's just not very good.

He had a slightly down year, but he still did fine by most every metric, certainly in the positive. I think a lot of it is narrative based, combined with Gudas playing a very hot and cold, visibly good or ugly game to begin with. He was no less physical in the trenches, and it's not like he just lights people up in the NZ every rush attempt. I think playing with Manning hurt him more than a suspension. I also expect a good year next year.

 

[Harhis]

It's something we all know and bring up when discussing him all the time, but those numbers are still shocking lol

I can imagine Hak looking at AMac's stats and thinking "That's the guy I want to put on the ice with minute left in a one goal game. And #53 needs to sit because... Yea, because."

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Sanheim was better than Gudas, MacD, Manning, and Hagg. Do you think it is good coaching to play so many inferior players over a superior player?

To be fair, it is not an even comparison. All four of those defensemen had far more difficult assignments than Sanheim, who was deployed with kid gloves. If it were a scientific study, it would be completely invalidated by that.

 

[Beef Invictus]

To be fair, it is not an even comparison. All four of those defensemen had far more difficult assignments than Sanheim, who was deployed with kid gloves. If it were a scientific study, it would be completely invalidated by that.

Yet he was paired with several of them and while paired with them, outperformed them. Against the same competition.

 

[Cootsfanclub]

None of this is very surprising, I'd be interested in context of who they have as forwards to aid the transition game.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

174 defensemen played at least 49 games. Sanheim was 156/174 in quality of competition, and 157/174 in defensive zone start percentage.
By comparison, MacDonald was 57/174 in quality of competition and 13/174 in defensive zone start percentage.
Hagg was 81/174 in QoC and 18/174 in d zone start %.
You can't simply compare their metrics as if they were used in the same manner.

 

[Lindberg]

He had a slightly down year, but he still did fine by most every metric, certainly in the positive. I think a lot of it is narrative based, combined with Gudas playing a very hot and cold, visibly good or ugly game to begin with. He was no less physical in the trenches, and it's not like he just lights people up in the NZ every rush attempt. I think playing with Manning hurt him more than a suspension. I also expect a good year next year.

I hope you're right but when I see Gudas play I see a low IQ player that relies on his physical presence to give him the space and time he needs.

 

[deadhead]

I don't think Gudas is a low IQ player, the last playoff games skews perceptions when he tried to do too much.
Most of the time he plays like a guy who understands his physical limitations.

My problem with Gudas was after his suspension he played tentatively, until close to the end of the season.
And Gudas and Hagg have no future as finesse defensemen.
There's a role for a physical, stay at home defensemen in this league, but you have to be smart, play with good anticipation, and play it safe.
Gudas has learned how to do that, he regressed last year, but was very good the previous season.

But if you look at Gudas as a rookie and Hagg as a rookie, they're pretty similar.

 

[TB87]

I don't think Gudas is a low IQ player, the last playoff games skews perceptions when he tried to do too much.
Most of the time he plays like a guy who understands his physical limitations.

My problem with Gudas was after his suspension he played tentatively, until close to the end of the season.
And Gudas and Hagg have no future as finesse defensemen.
There's a role for a physical, stay at home defensemen in this league, but you have to be smart, play with good anticipation, and play it safe.
Gudas has learned how to do that, he regressed last year, but was very good the previous season.

But if you look at Gudas as a rookie and Hagg as a rookie, they're pretty similar.

Hagg is a frustrating player. Once in possession of the puck in the defensive zone, he’d get rid of it as quickly as possible. He’d treat the puck as if it were a grenade that needed to be tossed from danger. Here’s a visual for what I’m talking about. He has a lot of work to do when it comes to the transition game. Hopefully he improves because that’s an ugly picture.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

To be fair, it is not an even comparison. All four of those defensemen had far more difficult assignments than Sanheim, who was deployed with kid gloves. If it were a scientific study, it would be completely invalidated by that.

We don't know enough about quantifying the effects of QoC (or QoT) to say it would invalidate anything. Of course in a perfect world, we should factor it in, as you said. I just don't like to put the proverbial cart before the horse when we're talking so broadly.

I would point to QoT more than QoC for this roster, especially Defensemen, given how useless so many line combinations were.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

We don't know enough about quantifying the effects of QoC (or QoT) to say it would invalidate anything. Of course in a perfect world, we should factor it in, as you said. I just don't like to put the proverbial cart before the horse when we're talking so broadly.

I would point to QoT more than QoC for this roster, especially Defensemen, given how useless so many line combinations were.

I think putting the cart before the horse is using the same metrics to rate players against each other who were deployed in completely different manners. You can't rate a horse's performance in graded stakes vs. another horse's performance in cheap claiming races because they are being used in completely different manners against different levels of competition. Just my opinion. (And I think MacDonald and Hagg are nothing more than 3rd pairing caliber defensemen, for the record, as I've said many times, but I'm sure their metrics would look better if they were selectively deployed like Sanheim was).