Blue Jays Discussion: It's the off-season. Stuff might happen. Or it might not.

[showtime8]

I might be in the minority here, but I'd love to bring back Shoemaker. When he was healthy, he was very solid.

 

[Battle Lin]

ray is a great add, i really want to bring back walker more...going hard after bauer is pretty much a must with our payroll, we need another potential ace like bauer more than any position right now

this rotation looks great enough to win with, considering how scary our offense can be even without moves

bauer
ryu
walker
ray
pearson

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I don't see a world where Lindor signs a 2 year extension anywhere. Also Gurriel has 4 more years of control. 3 on his contract and then he's arbitration eligible for 1 more year.

I'd be down on Gurriel+ for Lindor with an extension, but like you said with an extension I think the Indians aim higher.

And that’s where it’s hard to gauge the value. The Indians window is like 60/40 right now (a good upcoming season can change that), so the Dolens would spend if that’s the case. The Jays is opening. So finding the balance is the tricky part. Lindor is a superstar right now, so Cleveland losing him hurts their chances, unless they can replace him with 75-80% of what he brings and hope they can handle the other back or more with the secondary (possibly tertiary) piece. At the same time, they have to think if it’s “nah not next year but two years from now let’s go for it”.

I guess Grichuk could go back as a “cap dump” seeing he can play the OF at the MLB level (seriously other than Naquan who may not even play they have no MLB level OF currently) but it will cost the Jays more. Like probably Groshans and a “may or may not pitch at the MLB level” pitching prospect. Lower the fielder prospect and up the pitching prospect as necessary.

With an extension given, obviously up one of the prospects as necessary, or add one.

 

[pylon17]

I thought about it. I didn't think people would be ready for that conversation

People still have this irrational attachment to vladdy. Personally I prefer rowdy at first base. I'm well aware that Vladdy is a fair amount younger but Rowdy is 26 right? I mean first base isn't physically demanding wouldn't he technically still be able to play at a high level at 34-36?

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Maybe I'm just higher on him than others, but I see Gurriel as roughly a 3 WAR player. Three years of that for $15 million total is worth a LOT.

No I am with you there. Moving Gurriel in a Lindor trade just kind of seems counter intuitive to a team that should be trying to start competing. If the price for Lindor gets to the point we are having to subtract a already valuable part of our core...It probably makes sense to look in other places at that point.

 

[Puckstuff]

Vlad for Lindor is hilariously bad. Just a really, really terrible idea in every way.

Vlad for signed Lindor is a reasonable ask he’s a young top 15 player in the game. It’s going to take a big piece going back like Hernandez, Gurriel Jr., Biggio or Vlad (or a haul of futures) and Vlad’s value is more in line with those 3 rather then substantially higher. Vlad’s stock is down.

If Lindor was even possible maybe you flip Hernandez or Gurriel Jr. instead or futures but if their asking for a big piece like Gurriel, Hernandez, Biggio or Vlad who would you trade?

 

[weems]

People still have this irrational attachment to vladdy. Personally I prefer rowdy at first base. I'm well aware that Vladdy is a fair amount younger but Rowdy is 26 right? I mean first base isn't physically demanding wouldn't he technically still be able to play at a high level at 34-36?

This is one of those takes that will almost certainly not age very well.

Vlad is 21 years old.

Do you understand how young that really is in baseball terms?

 

[Discoverer]

Vlad for signed Lindor is a reasonable ask he’s a young top 15 player in the game. It’s going to take a big piece going back like Hernandez, Gurriel Jr., Biggio or Vlad (or a haul of futures) and Vlad’s value is more in line with those 3 rather then substantially higher. Vlad’s stock is down.

If Lindor was even possible maybe you flip Hernandez or Gurriel Jr. instead or futures but if their asking for a big piece like Gurriel, Hernandez, Biggio or Vlad who would you trade?

If they're demanding Gurriel, Teoscar, Biggio, or Vlad, I wouldn't trade for Lindor.

And Vlad for a signed Lindor is not in any way a reasonable ask, even though his stock is down.

 

[pylon17]

This is one of those takes that will almost certainly not age very well.

Vlad is 21 years old.

Do you understand how young that really is in baseball terms?

Yes, I do.

Can you answer my question?

 

[Scion]

Pretty sure they would be pretty happy once they see Lindor.

If the front office ever did something that stupid they would be fired. You don't trade a controllable 21 year old with star potential for a player that is one year removed from FA. Even if that player was Mike Trout the value doesn't make sense. The whole appeal of a player like Lindor is that he should be relatively cheap to acquire because of his lack of control beyond this season. And no, Lindor with an extension doesn't make sense either. You never give up young star talent for the right to pay a player top dollar on the FA market.

 

[Discoverer]

Man, I thought the Gurriel discussion was a bit over the top. How did we start talking about Vlad for Lindor? Yikes.

 

[weems]

Yes, I do.

Can you answer my question?

Yes Rowdy is still young.

That doesnt mean he's anywhere close to as talented.

I think you're vastly underrating Vlad because he didnt dominate right out of the gate.

It would be akin to the Leafs calling up Amirov right now and being dissapointed when he didnt light it up right away.

These are Vlad's stats thru 183 games (which is slightly more than one season)

.269 BA
24 HR
102 RBI
.778 OPS

Those are pretty solid numbers and this kid is so green its not even funny.

He has also acknowleged that he needs to lose weight and already has lost around 15lbs.

Rowdy was in like AA at Vlad's age.

 

[Puckstuff]

If they're demanding Gurriel, Teoscar, Biggio, or Vlad, I wouldn't trade for Lindor.

And Vlad for a signed Lindor is not in any way a reasonable ask, even though his stock is down.

and that's perfectly reasonable! Keeping those 4 players and getting a LaMahieu, Turner or Bauer or someone of that calibre would be a good bit of business as well.

This is one of those takes that will almost certainly not age very well.

Vlad is 21 years old.

Do you understand how young that really is in baseball terms?

I don't want to trade Vlad at almost all costs but even if you project him to be a .300 avg, .400 OBP 30 hr, 100 RBI guy at 1B/DH, there are players you may consider moving him for even with the knowledge he will be a middle of the order bat and Lindor is probably one of those guys (value wise).

Not stating we should make that trade I'm just logically breaking it down that with Tellez/Hernandez as 1B/DH options it's perfectly reasonable to explore moving a piece where we have a surplus for a better overall player. Maybe it's Hernandez for Lindor or Tellez+Groshans for Lindor.

Again not saying we should do that i'm just having the conversation and exploring options

 

[Scion]

Vladdy for Lindor? Lindor would have to come with an extension for me to even consider that TBH. Even looking at prospect deals, given we have Bo at Short I'm not too anxious to get Lindor as a 1 year rental unless it's a deal you can't say no to. Martin, Groshans and SWR are all untouchables for any rental from my end. We're not there yet, and I don't really loive the idea of shoehorning Bo or Biggio into 3rd base or the outfield. Though if Bo could be a solid defensive center fielder that would intrigue me. Martinez is likely a no as well, and I'd only listen on Manoah because the bust rate of pitching prospects. I just don't see this year as the go for it year.

Lindor with an extension however, my ears are perking up.

Trading high end prospect capital for the right to pay a player the most money is generally a poor way of doing business. If I were inclined to acquire Lindor I would rather take my chances that he would re-sign after a year than pay more in dollars and assets to guarantee it.

None of this is to mention that there is no real incentive for Lindor to agree to a sign and trade.

 

[Puckstuff]

Man, I thought the Gurriel discussion was a bit over the top. How did we start talking about Vlad for Lindor? Yikes.

You don't think management has these types of conversations? It's literally their job to explore every possibility. Having a discussion about scenario's doesn't mean your committing to anything.

 

[Scion]

Yes Rowdy is still young.

That doesnt mean he's anywhere close to as talented.

I think you're vastly underrating Vlad because he didnt dominate right out of the gate.

It would be akin to the Leafs calling up Amirov right now and being dissapointed when he didnt light it up right away.

These are Vlad's stats thru 183 games (which is slightly more than one season)

.269 BA
24 HR
102 RBI
.778 OPS

Those are pretty solid numbers and this kid is so green its not even funny.

He has also acknowleged that he needs to lose weight and already has lost around 15lbs.

Rowdy was in like AA at Vlad's age.

I think it is fair to be down on Vlad given his production relative to the hype. It is also not entirely fair to write off his defensive and base running shortcomings due to age, those are real flaws that will likely always compromise his total value. That said, Rowdy Tellez is likely a replacement level player and anyone who prefers him to Vlad needs to have their account perma-banned.

 

[Discoverer]

You don't think management has these types of conversations? It's literally their job to explore every possibility. Having a discussion about scenario's doesn't mean your committing to anything.

No, I don't think management would have serious internal discussions about moving 5 years of Vlad for 1 year of Lindor.

 

[Cor]

No, I don't think management would have serious internal discussions about moving 5 years of Vlad for 1 year of Lindor.

It's pretty much the exact opposite of what Shapiro/Atkins have done, both here and in Cleveland.

 

[Puckstuff]

No, I don't think management would have serious internal discussions about moving 5 years of Vlad for 1 year of Lindor.

What about a signed Lindor ?

 

[Advanced stats]

You don't think management has these types of conversations? It's literally their job to explore every possibility. Having a discussion about scenario's doesn't mean your committing to anything.

No. In no way has management thought about moving Vlad for anyone, Lindor included. I'd bet serious cash on that. I think you're seriously underselling Guerrero's potential. He could legitimately become the best player in the game and no one would be surprised. It's almost expected that he's going to become a top 15-20 player.
Now add in the years of control and financial savings and it becomes ridiculous.

 

[Puckstuff]

No. In no way has management thought about moving Vlad for anyone, Lindor included. I'd bet serious cash on that. I think you're seriously underselling Guerrero's potential. He could legitimately become the best player in the game and no one would be surprised. It's almost expected that he's going to become a top 15-20 player.
Now add in the years of control and financial savings and it becomes ridiculous.

ok bud

Because Vlad for Trout is something management wouldn't even be willing to discuss right?

I can assure you they explore every possibility. Anyone can be traded for the right player.

 

[Discoverer]

What about a signed Lindor ?

Is he signing for significantly below market value or are they paying him whatever they would have to pay in free agency?

The ability to sign a player to an extension is a small bonus in a trade, as it takes away the uncertainty of waiting until free agency, but it doesn't significantly increase the value unless they're getting a really team-friendly deal. So they're not getting, say, ten years of Lindor in a trade - they're getting one year of Lindor and the ability to negotiate an extension early. The alternative is to wait until free agency and sign him (or Correa or Baez or Story or Bryant or whoever) and give up a draft pick instead of trading a huge part of their future.

 

[Puckstuff]

Is he signing for significantly below market value or are they paying him whatever they would have to pay in free agency?

The ability to sign a player to an extension is a small bonus in a trade, as it takes away the uncertainty of waiting until free agency, but it doesn't significantly increase the value unless they're getting a really team-friendly deal. So they're not getting, say, ten years of Lindor in a trade - they're getting one year of Lindor and the ability to negotiate an extension early. The alternative is to wait until free agency and sign him (or Correa or Baez or Story or Bryant or whoever) and give up a draft pick instead of trading a huge part of their future.

I'm fine with the argument and I'd lean to that option.

I just find it comical that people can't have a conversation without getting emotional.

There's nothing unreasonable about discussing trading a 0.5 WAR player with elite potential for a 6 WAR player signed long term. Every possibility should be explored and discussed.

 

[Discoverer]

I'm fine with the argument and I'd lean to that option.

I just find it comical that people can't have a conversation without getting emotional.

There's nothing unreasonable about discussing trading a 0.5 WAR player with elite potential for a 6 WAR player signed long term. Every possibility should be explored and discussed.

I find it kind of comical that some people see an almost entirely analytical discussion of the issue as "getting emotional".

 

[kb]

Man, I thought the Gurriel discussion was a bit over the top. How did we start talking about Vlad for Lindor? Yikes.

Yeah, that is kinda dim....well, a lot actually.