I am a high functioning autistic who has presented most of my base hockey theories on TSN1260 Alan Mitchell’s “Lowetide” blog and HF boards.
My father and friend were the lead minds for Aerospace industry greatest practical minds of last 150 years.
Father development of:1. Canadian Avro Arrow - basis for the entire American fighter jet industry, 2. Nuclear powered rocket program in Jackass flats NV, 3.for Apollo service module and lunar lander, 4. Retro fit of Hawk SAM to make it functional from late 60,s to 2000, 5. Landsat satellite development and tracking program, 6. first Motorola home satelite dish, 7. Exocet missle, 8. Designing & commisioning many of the worlds satelite tracking programs for NATO partner countries................
These minds lead me to reject (@ 13yr) Academic linear binary aproach looking for formulaic solutions In forward/ reverse binary variable (T/F & +/-) linear path confirmation.
I used a Boolean multivarible Sequence of event (SOE) mapping of outcomes for machines/sport robot/human actions allowing Identification of the 40-500% affects to create my theories. We now see the leading binary linear academic theorists reject thier work by using my approach.
I have used two two observations (to 100% break down GA portion of hockey) that date back
1. 50 yr (flin Flon bombers violence about attack defend net) that lead to the entire high danger shot density portion of analytic tree.
-Shot density (12 yr)
-Home plate/ perimeter Ratio. (12yr)
-Elite HD dmen
- Dpairs establish save% avg baseline goalies perform around
- Goalies are measured +/- versus Dpair Save% baseline.
- Off dmen are rovers who create a 3F-1R-1D-1G who occupy forward zone space on offence and abandon def of HD area must be measured against Dmen.
2. 44 yr ago Playing with 7 yr old Ron Gunville (Player Personel Director of P.A. Raiders) I observed him moving like a table hockey goalie. The shots hit him at a high %. The have 0% chance off going in ( closed shot). Driver of a whole other collection of def affect.
- Table hockey goalie ( creates closed shots)
- open / closed SH: only open sh need accelerated goalie movement to make SV.
- 0% Corsi = ( blocks + misses + closed sh)
- elite 0% corsi Men (subject goalies to lowest % of storable Corsi)
= 0% corsi/CA ( #1 Russell, #2 DeHaan) 12 year old theory
My two ( 2 kinds of ZS) player Situation usage 3d matrix ( 3 axis multi variable) based on team, comp, ZS (60% Face Off & 40% coach bench change w/ or w/o pocession) establishes expected baseline and +/- performance ranges for the 258 or 512 situations.
When I looked at cup success:
1. Who wins championships (2 teams 1conf & 1 Cup/conf)
Top 5 GA teams can win a championship with bottom 30GF
Top 5 GF teams need top 15 GA to win championships
GA teams make/ advance in playoffs 20-40% more than GF teams.
GA drives championships
2. What is a repetitive cup core roster:
I have discussed this theory on HF boards for many years.
Vegas 100% copied it.
1. HD coach
Gallant
2. Top 10 HD goalie ( 1 available in exp draft)
Fluery
3. 3+ top,60 HD dmen (4 last 3 seasons) (9 available in exp)
Vegas took all 9
3 top 10 Mcnabb, Stoner, Schmidt
2 top 25 Methot, TVR
2 top 45 C. Miller,
Sbisa
2 top 60 Engelland, Garrison
4. Top 8 team Cummulative Top 125 fwd ( 16g 39p) production. ( 5 avail)
185 groups of 16/39 absilble from top 125 fwds.
Mcdavid = 2.65
Neal, Perron, Eakin, Smith, Marschesault,
With Increased TOI prospects Karlsson, Haula, Tuch
5. +ve goal diff special team.
A team that puts emphasis on 2D-1G HD sys and has parts 1,2,3 is Conf final competative every yr.
2. Griess Top 10 last 3 yr
3. Sbisa top 45 HD, boychuk used to be top 30.
CHL scouts I talk to agree with the Rover structure theory
When HD perimeter ratio was (1.5/2):1 rovers offensive performance had more value than def.
Now that it is 5:1 the Def is much more important.
Rovers establish save % baselines of .897 to .907
Since Top 5 rovers generate ev off at #6 to #9 fwd and #6 rovers on down generate at #10 (4 th line) to AHL level. You want it in the 270 to 360 forward superipr at generating offence.
NYI Def establishes brutal save% baselines.
But you now have
2/4-5 GA cup core
Griess
Sbisa
If you see a rover skating up the puck that allows opp to set up NZ traps that greatly reduce zone entry. Often leading to,pout,and situations in front of thier own net.