GDT: ISLANDERS @ HOUSE OF THE STORM

[Lempo]

I say we clone 2009 Cam Ward.

It's a Doctor Doom plan when as the phase one you need a time machine and the cloning technology.

 

[Svechhammer]

First of all, there's seriously a guy on the general discussion board complaining that the refs screwed the Isles in this one. Just wow.

Secondly, Williams is exactly what this team needs, and the kind of leader this team needs as captain. He works his ass off every shift. There was one moment where we went to dump the puck in at the end of one of his shifts and he chased it down to freeze NY in their zone until our defensive help could arrive. He was the only person who didn't peel off and immediately coast into a line change as the puck was dumped in. And I realized that kind of gritty play has been missing for a while.

 

[HisIceness]

The refs screwed the Isles in the shootout

 

[zman77]

 

[zman77]

 

[zman77]

 

[zman77]

 

[zman77]

 

[zman77]

 

[Negan4Coach]

Did not expect a storybook ending to Williams first game back. So great. I think this will go a long way to improve morale and momentum.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I liked Gardiner’s game again. The coaches did too, evidently. He played 3:25 more than Slavin at EV in regulation. Until a better solution is found next to 74, Gardiner - Pesce is basically the top pair. Hopefully it holds up against faster clubs.

I’d still like to see Bean at some point. The puck movement outside of that pair was ugly. The opposition just has to shade over to Slavin and force him to throw it off the glass or pass it over to Edmundson to exit the zone. Fleury - van Riemsdyk was pretty disappointing in that regard given how much they’ve played together over the years.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

I liked Gardiner’s game again. The coaches did too, evidently. He played 3:25 more than Slavin at EV in regulation. Until a better solution is found next to 74, Gardiner - Pesce is basically the top pair. Hopefully it holds up against faster clubs.

I’d still like to see Bean at some point. The puck movement outside of that pair was ugly. The opposition just has to shade over to Slavin and force him to throw it off the glass or pass it over to Edmundson to exit the zone. Fleury - van Riemsdyk was pretty disappointing in that regard given how much they’ve played together over the years.

HE LOOKED LIKE A DEFENSIVE BOON NOT A LIABILITY.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Side note: Ned has faced 8 shots in 33 minutes but only stopped 6.

Make that he has stopped 6 of 9.

5-3 checkers, end of 2.

Quotes from the Checker's thread and this thread.

I know that some have been clamoring for Ned to get a call-up, but from what I can tell, he's been as inconsistent and performing no better (or worse) in the AHL as Mrazek and Reimer have performed in the NHL. Maybe it's the team in front of him, but it seems he's taken a step back this year? I don't watch the Checkers often though, so going off other peoples feedback and stats only. Seems like the Checker's are dealing with some inconsistent goaltending from both tenders right now, but scoring enough to compensate for it.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Quotes from the Checker's thread and this thread.

I know that some have been clamoring for Ned to get a call-up, but from what I can tell, he's been as inconsistent and performing no better (or worse) in the AHL as Mrazek and Reimer have performed in the NHL. Maybe it's the team in front of him, but it seems he's taken a step back this year? I don't watch the Checkers often though, so going off other peoples feedback and stats only. Seems like the Checker's are dealing with some inconsistent goaltending from both tenders right now, but scoring enough to compensate for it.

Much like the back-up QB in football, the prospect is the most discussed.

 

[NotOpie]

Paid close attention to Fleury tonight and thought he played a pretty good game. One gaff that I recall, but several nice plays. Played the body well and generally made good decisions. I like seeing him get more minutes.

I continue to be underwhelmed by TVR. Sure he'll have a solid outing but usually follows it up with a couple of below average efforts.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Quotes from the Checker's thread and this thread.

I know that some have been clamoring for Ned to get a call-up, but from what I can tell, he's been as inconsistent and performing no better (or worse) in the AHL as Mrazek and Reimer have performed in the NHL. Maybe it's the team in front of him, but it seems he's taken a step back this year? I don't watch the Checkers often though, so going off other peoples feedback and stats only. Seems like the Checker's are dealing with some inconsistent goaltending from both tenders right now, but scoring enough to compensate for it.

I've watched a lot of Checkers games this year. Other than at the beginning of the year, Ned's looked quite good this year. In some ways, his and Forsberg's mediocre SV% is misleading because Charlotte is so good at shot suppression as a team, especially since the Kaski deal that fortified the 3rd pairing. A lot of times, it's more difficult for goaltenders to get really high SV% without seeing the usual barrage of shots, even if they're playing well.

To use an NHL example, I think it's part of the puzzle as to why Barry Trotz's teams always outperform the analytical math. Teams take a bunch of shots against them, but if you look at heat maps, Trotz has coached his players to really defend the center/slot portions. This means that even though teams may still get a bunch of shots on the goalie, they're all coming from the perimeter.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I've watched a lot of Checkers games this year. Other than at the beginning of the year, Ned's looked quite good this year. In some ways, his and Forsberg's mediocre SV% is misleading because Charlotte is so good at shot suppression as a team, especially since the Kaski deal that fortified the 3rd pairing. A lot of times, it's more difficult for goaltenders to get really high SV% without seeing the usual barrage of shots, even if they're playing well.

Thanks for the feedback.

The same thing apply with the Canes goalies as aren't the Canes the #1 shot suppression team in the league?

I just find it hard to think Ned, with a career AHL .905SV% and .905SV% this year is going to do better than that when he gets to the NHL against tougher competition. Hopefully he does if/when he gets here.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Thanks for the feedback.

The same thing apply with the Canes goalies as aren't the Canes the #1 shot suppression team in the league?

I just find it hard to think Ned, with a career AHL .905SV% and .905SV% this year is going to do better than that when he gets to the NHL against tougher competition. Hopefully he does if/when he gets here.

Yes, the same thing does apply to the Canes. I edited my comment before you replied to sort of explain my thinking at an NHL context, using Barry Trotz's Islanders as an example of a team with really high goaltender SV%. What I've seen is that his effectiveness as a coach is that he's able to take rosters that are theoretically not great at hockey and coach them a defensive system that bends but not breaks.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Thanks for the feedback.

The same thing apply with the Canes goalies as aren't the Canes the #1 shot suppression team in the league?

I just find it hard to think Ned, with a career AHL .905SV% and .905SV% this year is going to do better than that when he gets to the NHL against tougher competition. Hopefully he does if/when he gets here.

Not arguing the main point with you here (I don't think Ned is the answer right now), but AHL to NHL sv%s are very weird. Mainly because defenses aren't nearly as good and chances can be higher danger. I think AHL to NHL save percentage is not nearly a linear translation, and it's not unheard of for a guy's sv% to actually increase when getting to the NHL.

 

[GoldiFox]

Not arguing the main point with you here (I don't think Ned is the answer right now), but AHL to NHL sv%s are very weird. Mainly because defenses aren't nearly as good and chances can be higher danger. I think AHL to NHL save percentage is not nearly a linear translation, and it's not unheard of for a guy's sv% to actually increase when getting to the NHL.

Ilya Samsonov last year in 37 AHL starts: 0.898 sv%
Ilya Samsonov this year in Washington: 0.927 sv%

Tristan Jarry last year in 47 AHL starts: 0.915 sv%
Tristan Jarry this year in Pittsburgh: 0.929 sv%

Alex Georgiev last year in 11 AHL starts: 0.883 sv%
Alex Georgiev this year with the Rangers: 0.913 sv%

Pavel Francouz last year in 49 AHL starts: 0.918 sv%
Pavel Francouz this year in Colorado: 0.926 sv%

Seems almost like the rule rather than the exception, at least for guys who eventually become solid NHLers. You never know until you try.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Ilya Samsonov last year in 37 AHL starts: 0.898 sv%
Ilya Samsonov this year in Washington: 0.927 sv%

Tristan Jarry last year in 47 AHL starts: 0.915 sv%
Tristan Jarry this year in Pittsburgh: 0.929 sv%

Alex Georgiev last year in 11 AHL starts: 0.883 sv%
Alex Georgiev this year with the Rangers: 0.913 sv%

Pavel Francouz last year in 49 AHL starts: 0.918 sv%
Pavel Francouz this year in Colorado: 0.926 sv%

Seems almost like the rule rather than the exception, at least for guys who eventually become solid NHLers. You never know until you try.

This, right here, is why if I ever had the honor to work for an NHL team as a stat nerd, I would put the following input: "Invest in good goalie scouts, because we don't know jackshit."

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Ilya Samsonov last year in 37 AHL starts: 0.898 sv%
Ilya Samsonov this year in Washington: 0.927 sv%

Tristan Jarry last year in 47 AHL starts: 0.915 sv%
Tristan Jarry this year in Pittsburgh: 0.929 sv%

Alex Georgiev last year in 11 AHL starts: 0.883 sv%
Alex Georgiev this year with the Rangers: 0.913 sv%

Pavel Francouz last year in 49 AHL starts: 0.918 sv%
Pavel Francouz this year in Colorado: 0.926 sv%

Seems almost like the rule rather than the exception, at least for guys who eventually become solid NHLers. You never know until you try.

Some of those are still pretty small sample sizes though in either their AHL or NHL starts. Also, Samsonov and Froancouz had excellent KHL stats and Georgiev had good SM-liiga stats prior to the AHL so they had a track record in a men's league. Jarry is a good example though as he bounced back and forth from the NHL and AHL and had some good seasons in the AHL and some not so good and his first NHL stint wasn't great, but he seems to be putting it together now at 24 years old. That's probably how the Borg sees Ned and why they don't want to rush him to the NHL.

You make a good point about not being able to translate AHL numbers to the NHL for goalies, although I wouldn't say it's the "exception". I just did a quick look on a few guys and quickly found these 3. I'm sure there are many others.

Matt Murray: ~.935 in 72 AHL starts, .930 and .923 in his first 2 NHL seasons and .915 total in 188 NHL starts.
Kuemper: .924 in 66 AHL starts, .918 in 211 NHL starts
Gibson: .921 in 70 AHL starts, .919 in 272 NHL stats

Again, as I said earlier, I haven't seen much of Ned so I am questioning how he is playing and have doubts about how good he can be in the NHL with the limited info I have.

It's one of the reasons I trust that the organization knows what they are doing with him in terms of leaving him in the AHL to further his development vs. force feeding games to him now in a back-up role.

 

[Ole Gil]

Slavin's rough is a good game for everyone else. Elite is elite.

I only meant on the point of the Power play. He made a ton of his ridiculous stick plays defensively that he does so often, it's hard not to take for granted.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Ilya Samsonov last year in 37 AHL starts: 0.898 sv%
Ilya Samsonov this year in Washington: 0.927 sv%

Tristan Jarry last year in 47 AHL starts: 0.915 sv%
Tristan Jarry this year in Pittsburgh: 0.929 sv%

Alex Georgiev last year in 11 AHL starts: 0.883 sv%
Alex Georgiev this year with the Rangers: 0.913 sv%

Pavel Francouz last year in 49 AHL starts: 0.918 sv%
Pavel Francouz this year in Colorado: 0.926 sv%

Seems almost like the rule rather than the exception, at least for guys who eventually become solid NHLers. You never know until you try.

Don’t put Francouz in the mix.

He is older and way more experienced.

 

[geehaad]

The problem with Slavin filling the same role as Hamilton on the PP is that he doesn't approach his position like Hamilton does. He doesn't think shot-first, he thinks pass-first, which ruins whatever strategy the #1 PP unit had previously employed, and it makes TT less effective. If they want to use Slavin at the top of PP#1, they need to change the dynamic with the rest of the unit...like bring in Niederriter in TT's place, or swap Svech and TT.

However, if I were the coach who'd just lost Dougie, I would've brought Gardiner up to PP#1 and let Slavin figure out his place in PP#2. Actually, I would have made a shit-ton more changes than that...I'm just thinking in terms of changing as little of what their apparent ideal already was (I don't believe it to be ideal, at all).