Post-Game Talk: Islanders 3, Penguins 2 (SO) - Greiss Trolls the Penguins

[EightyOne]

Johnson was not signed to be a 6/7 fringe NHLer putting up fringe stats. Like, pointing to him doing better than an undrafted player direct out of Euro leagues and Chad Ruhwedel is not evidence of success.



If JR meant to sign him as a 6/7/HS plug, then he very much so overspent on years and money. 5 years and over 3mil is too much to even be mediocre, let alone bad.

If JR meant to sign him as a 3/4 defender, then JMFJ very much is failing at that capacity.

There is no other way to spin it.

I am not even one who is like ALL CAPS EXPLETIVE Jack Johnson. But I can see he hasn't changed yet. Maybe in a couple more months he will put it together. Right now, not all something you write home about.

 

[TooManyHumans]

JJ has been pretty much what I was lead to expect from what everyone was saying when he was signed. I am not sure why the collective freak out over what was expected. He's a bottom pairing guy with some physicality. He is overpaid but it isn't by enough to really freak out about it now.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Johnson was not signed to be a 6/7 fringe NHLer putting up fringe stats. Like, pointing to him doing better than an undrafted player direct out of Euro leagues and Chad Ruhwedel is not evidence of success.

The problem is that he hasn't been any worse than either Schultz or Maatta have been this year, so Johnson isn't only performing at the level of pure rookies or fringe NHLers. Dumoulin and Letang have been incredible this year, Oleksiak has been incredible offensively and basically everyone else has been thoroughly meh. None of Schultz, Maatta, Johnson, Riikola or Ruhwedel have been dramatically better or worse than anyone else in the group.

And at this point, it's not even about how Johnson has done. Personally, I think he has been fine and has suffered from getting bad goaltending when he's on the ice. It's just about the annoying circle-jerk by the same people over and over again about how bad Johnson. I'm not even going to say "anytime he does something wrong on the ice", because he doesn't have to do anything wrong for this group to start complaining about him. It's just annoying to read and brings absolutely nothing of value to the table. I find it ironic how pixies complained about the bashing Letang group that HFPens had last year, but he's one of the ringleaders for the bashing Johnson group this year.

 

[NMK11]

The save oerceperce while on ice is a bit of a chicken-egg argument, no? I mean, if someone allows the other team better looks at net they're going to get better shots off. Don't we always do this in reverse? Murray will give up a few gonna and have a bad save percentage, but then we say the defense left him out to dry so those stats are misleading if you're just watching the box score.

 

[Gurglesons]

The problem is that he hasn't been any worse than either Schultz or Maatta have been this year, so Johnson isn't only performing at the level of pure rookies or fringe NHLers. Dumoulin and Letang have been incredible this year, Oleksiak has been incredible offensively and basically everyone else has been thoroughly meh. None of Schultz, Maatta, Johnson, Riikola or Ruhwedel have been dramatically better or worse than anyone else in the group.

And at this point, it's not even about how Johnson has done. Personally, I think he has been fine and has suffered from getting bad goaltending when he's on the ice. It's just about the annoying circle-jerk by the same people over and over again about how bad Johnson. I'm not even going to say "anytime he does something wrong on the ice", because he doesn't have to do anything wrong for this group to start complaining about him. It's just annoying to read and brings absolutely nothing of value to the table. I find it ironic how pixies complained about the bashing Letang group that HFPens had last year, but he's one of the ringleaders for the bashing Johnson group this year.

But, Letang is a good defenseman.

Johnson is not. I don’t get why you are crusading for him?

Every other defenseman, but Riikola has been statistically better at limiting shots, possessing the puck, and preventing HDCA.

I’m really confused why Jack Johnson is a hill you want to die on. This isn’t criticism for routine goals against like Letang has a penchant for getting around here.

This is a player that effectively has made every d pairing he has been a part of the past ten years worse outside of a stretch with Savard.

I’d normally agree with you. I think Maatta gets a ton of crap around here for his actual play when he’s a solid D that just doesn’t fit in our system.

JJ fits in no system. He’s terrible and another stepping stone towards Rutherford arrogantly thinking we can rehab any player.

 

[billybudd]

2. Riikola having a .941 on ice save%, compared to a .857 on ice save% for Johnson
3. Riikola having a high danger on ice save% of .864, compared to a .737 on ice save% for Johnson

I know the stats people will often attribute on ice save% to randomness in a lot of situations, but when it's been like this for a decade with one guy, there's a causal relationship there.

What I see with my own eyes is that it takes Johnson twice as long to adjust to changing circumstances than the next slowest defenseman in that respect (probably Oleksiak). That is a devastating trait for a defenseman to have when he's on the wrong side of 30 and starting to lose some of his physical quickness, as well.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I wonder if:

1. Riikola playing in only half of the games this year and playing half as many minutes as Johnson
2. Riikola having a .941 on ice save%, compared to a .857 on ice save% for Johnson
3. Riikola having a high danger on ice save% of .864, compared to a .737 on ice save% for Johnson
4. Riikola getting easier assignments than Johnson
5. Riikola not playing at all on the PK, while Johnson playing among the most on the Penguins on the PK.

Have any impact on Riikola being on the ice for less goals against than Johnson this year. Nah, those probably don't have any impact. Just like Oleksiak being on the ice for less goals against last year than Letang means that Letang sucks.

I actually thought JJ had some strong games for us (like 5 out of 11). However, when he's been bad he's been a big-time liability.

Best way I can put it is I absolutely don't trust JJ in the defensive zone over Riikola. He's slower to adapt to developing situations, has a slower stick and just can't skate like Jusso. JJ just has poor defensive awareness. It's true that Riikola hasn't been thoroughly tested yet and has had easier minutes than JJ, however when he's been on the ice he's putting himself in positions to break up backdoor plays and clear rebound opportunities. He's been good at preventing the sure-goals. He just stays glued to his man and protects the house a lot better than Johnson. Just a significantly smarter player.

I'm not saying JR has been great because he hasn't. He has a lot to work on. He's getting hemmed in too much and not making good clearances. He's passing up obvious routes of advancement by being overly cautious. He's failing to land his shots on net...and some of the attempts were pretty good scoring chances.

However, Riikola's got a way higher ceiling than Johnson. He will improve and be a stud eventually. He gives us a better chance to win. Hope he doesn't sit too long.

 

[Peat]

I know the stats people will often attribute on ice save% to randomness in a lot of situations, but when it's been like this for a decade with one guy, there's a causal relationship there.

What I see with my own eyes is that it takes Johnson twice as long to adjust to changing circumstances than the next slowest defenseman in that respect (probably Oleksiak). That is a devastating trait for a defenseman to have when he's on the wrong side of 30 and starting to lose some of his physical quickness, as well.

Has it? Because Natural Stat Trick is being weird so I can't select all that big a sample, but between 14-15 and 16-17, Johnson had a 92.44% 5v5 save percentage behind him for Columbus, pretty much in the middle of the range for the dmen playing for Columbus in that time period. Was 92.07 at 5v5 last season, below average for the team but not unusual for the NHL as a whole.

If JR meant to sign him as a 6/7/HS plug, then he very much so overspent on years and money. 5 years and over 3mil is too much to even be mediocre, let alone bad.

If JR meant to sign him as a 3/4 defender, then JMFJ very much is failing at that capacity.

There is no other way to spin it.

I am not even one who is like ALL CAPS EXPLETIVE Jack Johnson. But I can see he hasn't changed yet. Maybe in a couple more months he will put it together. Right now, not all something you write home about.

What about if he was signed to be a 4/5 dman who could mainly be a useful part alongside stronger partners and pinch hit as a 2nd pairing dman for a while in times of need?

Because that would explain the cap hit (bit high but basically fine), the ice time (at least overall), and broadly speaking the performance (I don't think he's been lucky with goaltending at all, Empo's right there).


Not that I really wanted to defend Johnson a bunch, but there we go.

 

[billybudd]

Has it? Because Natural Stat Trick is being weird so I can't select all that big a sample, but between 14-15 and 16-17, Johnson had a 92.44% 5v5 save percentage behind him for Columbus, pretty much in the middle of the range for the dmen playing for Columbus in that time period. Was 92.07 at 5v5 last season, below average for the team but not unusual for the NHL as a whole.

Unfortunately, all the sites I used to use for this type of thing no longer exist and purged their own archives. My recollection is that his metrics have always been hideous, apart from a year or two in Columbus. I'm sure there are articles somewhere from his Kings and Canes years with statisticians suggesting he was one of the worst defensemen in the NHL and providing evidence, but I can't think of a name to give you off the top of my head who didn't delete all their stuff from the web.

I don't know that I would ever have gone that far, myself (in the past, I've compared Johnson to Brian Berard--great athlete who wanders and doesn't have hockey sense), but, suffice it to say, if he's not the stats community's least favorite player in the NHL over the past 10 years, he's certainly bottom 5 (yes, with Glass).

 

[Peat]

Unfortunately, all the sites I used to use for this type of thing no longer exist and purged their own archives. My recollection is that his metrics have always been hideous, apart from a year or two in Columbus. I'm sure there are articles somewhere from his Kings and Canes years with statisticians suggesting he was one of the worst defensemen in the NHL and providing evidence, but I can't think of a name to give you off the top of my head who didn't delete all their stuff from the web.

I don't know that I would ever have gone that far, myself (in the past, I've compared Johnson to Brian Berard--great athlete who wanders and doesn't have hockey sense), but, suffice it to say, if he's not the stats community's least favorite player in the NHL over the past 10 years, he's certainly bottom 5 (yes, with Glass).

Oh his possession metrics have always been fairly bad - just not the goaltending behind him as far as I can see.

 

[DegenX]

New game tonight, and this one isn't really being discussed so I'm closing this. You can move the discussion to the All Purpose Off Day thread or someone can start a thread to discuss the defense or JJ specifically if you'd like.