Player Discussion Isac Lundestrom

[branmuffin17]

Jones had some major attitude problems in junior. That hurt his stock a lot.

Good, we need that attitude up here XD Seen almost no piss and vinegar. Waiting to see what Perry's attitude is like when he comes back, but Kesler has seemed extremely meek.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

Sounds like you think he has a chance to be a Patrice Bergeron-esque player. Which if he is and we end up with another prospect with a chance to be an elite center, we have a shot to be a cup contender relatively quickly with the right coach.

So...let’s delete this and start over since I’ve seemingly started something that might have ruined the social fabric of this board

 

[AngelDuck]

Lundestrom will never reach the lofty heights that Kossilla will, right?

Hahah

Nice

 

[eternalbedhead]

I like how the numbers are meaningless and I'm just providing anecdotes, even though that is exactly what you are running on. That is what we're all running on. Because these are prospects, and speculation is all that we have to work with.

To the points that haven't been diced over the last few pages, Bergeron wasn't having to make an adjustment to a completely different ice sheet and style of play the way that Lundestrom was. Further, his offensive output was equally out of step with his peers as Bergeron was with his. His elite prospects page has a draft profile that points to him being more than a primarily defensive center, and that shouldn't be controversial seeing as the reports that set this most recent discussion into motion were discussing exactly that. I'll just reiterate what I said earlier that they don't just hand out first line center jobs to 19 year olds in the SHL any more than that is casually done in the NHL. Those jobs have to be earned through demonstration, not promise. Finally, the year that someone makes the league does not in and of itself indicate anything. There are no shortage of players in and bound for the Hall Of Fame for whom that was true.

The nature of speculation isn't an excuse to substantiate bold claims. Of course, your claim is unfalsfiable at this point.

Please read my impromptu scouting report again. I'll dial back on the numbers (I was merely saying that even from the position of point totals, Bergeron was much better at this age) but I'm still not seeing this offensive upside you're talking about. Lundestrom is a great passer, but everything else in his offensive repertoire is just good. And that's good - he's a well rounded player - but he has a ways to go if he wants to go from a Jordan Staal to a Patrice Bergeron.

No, they don't hand out first line center jobs to anybody. Again, it's great that Lundestrom is receiving such a responsibility at this age -- obviously his coach in Lulea trusts his skill. But you took down your own point one sentence later -- the year that someone makes the league does not in and of itself indicate anything. An early bloom doesn't guarantee a vibrant flower. Compare someone like Tyler Johnson with someone like Nail Yakupov, and the entire spectrum of players that exist in between. Just because Lundestrom has done the things he has this early on in his career doesn't mean that he will continue onto become one of the NHL's premier centers.

I don't think anyone will disagree with you that Lundestrom's ceiling is a Bergeron-esque player. He's been on a steep growth curve so far in his career and if that continues, our scouting reports now could become obsolete. He's a very cerebral player with a high level of hockey IQ on both sides of the puck. It's not impossible at all for him to become a very special player.

But it's an obscenely bold prediction to claim that Lundestrom's expectation is a Bergeron, and even moreso to claim that his ceiling is above Bergeron, which puts him in some sort of league with Datsyuk. Again, the burden of proof is on you, and you can't dial back and claim unfalsifiability as a defense.

 

[Static]

We kind of have a test case for great forward prospects who developed traits in Rakell. He was never a big goal scorer either; a high of 28 in the OHL, and was thought to be more of a two way guy who can chip in.

We will see with lundestrum, but nobody really has the ammo to prove/disprove anything just yet other than he is a very promising prospect.

 

[Exit Dose]

The nature of speculation isn't an excuse to substantiate bold claims. Of course, your claim is unfalsfiable at this point.

Please read my impromptu scouting report again. I'll dial back on the numbers (I was merely saying that even from the position of point totals, Bergeron was much better at this age) but I'm still not seeing this offensive upside you're talking about. Lundestrom is a great passer, but everything else in his offensive repertoire is just good. And that's good - he's a well rounded player - but he has a ways to go if he wants to go from a Jordan Staal to a Patrice Bergeron.

No, they don't hand out first line center jobs to anybody. Again, it's great that Lundestrom is receiving such a responsibility at this age -- obviously his coach in Lulea trusts his skill. But you took down your own point one sentence later -- the year that someone makes the league does not in and of itself indicate anything. An early bloom doesn't guarantee a vibrant flower. Compare someone like Tyler Johnson with someone like Nail Yakupov, and the entire spectrum of players that exist in between. Just because Lundestrom has done the things he has this early on in his career doesn't mean that he will continue onto become one of the league's premier centers.

I don't think anyone will disagree with you that Lundestrom's ceiling is a Bergeron-esque player. He's been on a steep growth curve so far in his career and if that continues, our scouting reports now could become obsolete. He's a very cerebral player with a high level of hockey IQ on both sides of the puck. It's not impossible at all for him to become a very special player.

But it's an obscenely bold prediction to claim that Lundestrom's expectation is a Bergeron, and even moreso to claim that his ceiling is above Bergeron, which puts him in some sort of league with Datsyuk. Again, the burden of proof is on you, and you can't dial back and claim unfalsifiability as a defense.

I was referring to their ability to show up down the road, not that making the league early wasn't an indication of the degree of innate talent, just that there is no singular set of portents for players like that emerging. As for Nail Yakupov, what you're leaving out, I'm not getting across, or you're missing is that I wasn't just pointing to his making the league at that age but that he had the ability to put up points at a high clip for someone not only of that age but older.

Yes, it's a bold prediction. So f***ing what? You're acting like I came here and said, 'he's the next Bergeron, and y'all are idiots.' It's a prediction. There's no burden of proof to be had, seeing as it's a counterfactual statement. This is my estimation. I have pointed to the things that led me to that estimation. Neither of us has proof to solidify that the personal guesses that we're making are true. You're just going to have to wait on that just as I am going to have to do. There's no need to fall apart because of that.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Everyone: this player has a ceiling.
Exit Dose, "obscenely bold"-ly: I think this player will come close to his ceiling.

 

[JohnnyDrama]

Everyone: this player has a ceiling.
Exit Dose, "obscenely bold"-ly: I think this player will come close to his ceiling.

People are disagreeing that the ceiling is above Bergeron

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

People are disagreeing that the ceiling is above Bergeron

Not the people doing most of the arguing. Not so bold as that.

 

[eternalbedhead]

I was referring to their ability to show up down the road, not that making the league early wasn't an indication of the degree of innate talent, just that there is no singular set of portents for players like that emerging. As for Nail Yakupov, what you're leaving out, I'm not getting across, or you're missing is that I wasn't just pointing to his making the league at that age but that he had the ability to put up points at a high clip for someone not only of that age but older.

Nail Yakupov put up 10 goals in 22 games as a 19 year old. For comparison, Ovechkin at the same age posted 13 in 37. That was my point. Lundestrom is still very young and at the same age in which Yakupov looked like the next coming of Ovechkin.

As for the rest of it, I agree.

Yes, it's a bold prediction. So ****ing what? You're acting like I came here and said, 'he's the next Bergeron, and y'all are idiots.' It's a prediction. There's no burden of proof to be had, seeing as it's a counterfactual statement. This is my estimation. I have pointed to the things that led me to that estimation. Neither of us has proof to solidify that the personal guesses that we're making are true. You're just going to have to wait on that just as I am going to have to do. There's no need to fall apart because of that.

What things have you pointed to? Yes, Lundestrom's production is well above the norm for his age. What else? What in his toolset rings "certain franchise center" to you?

I'm sorry if I'm coming across pedantic or finicky with my responses because there's a large difference between "expectation" and "ceiling", but the thing is... predictions, despite literally being unprovable, are not immune from criticism. I could say that I expect that the U.S. men's soccer team will qualify for and reach the quarterfinals at the 2022 World Cup. It's happened before and it's not an impossibility that it will happen, but it's highly unlikely nonetheless. Most reputable soccer fans, especially American ones, would laugh me off if I made that statement with such a degree of confidence.

No, you did not come in here and state your opinion as absolute fact. But the certainty you displayed with that prediction fully entitles you to a thread full of people laughing you off or otherwise challenging your opinion. There's no falling apart on my part. I just think your prediction, while not impossible by any means, is not realistic.

I mean... far be it from me to defend Ducks Nation in anything, but for all the flak you give him for the whole Sekac fail, that was kinda the same thing.

And we both can wait to see who eats crow later.

 

[Exit Dose]

Do not ask me about this crap anymore. This is tedious. Everything that you need to know should be over the last few pages, refer to that.

 

[eternalbedhead]

Do not ask me about this crap anymore. This is tedious. Everything that you need to know should be over the last few pages, refer to that.

....okay? I wasn't asking.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Never expect great things, and you will never risk being laughed at by randos.
--Ghandi, probably.

 

[Exit Dose]

....okay? I wasn't asking.

What things have you pointed to? Yes, Lundestrom's production is well above the norm for his age. What else? What in his toolset rings "certain franchise center" to you?

Would you like to edit your post after this to omit the above, and then pretend I'm crazy for responding to that; like Ducks Nation did earlier?

 

[nbducksfan19]

I was referring to their ability to show up down the road, not that making the league early wasn't an indication of the degree of innate talent, just that there is no singular set of portents for players like that emerging. As for Nail Yakupov, what you're leaving out, I'm not getting across, or you're missing is that I wasn't just pointing to his making the league at that age but that he had the ability to put up points at a high clip for someone not only of that age but older.

Yes, it's a bold prediction. So ****ing what? You're acting like I came here and said, 'he's the next Bergeron, and y'all are idiots.' It's a prediction. There's no burden of proof to be had, seeing as it's a counterfactual statement. This is my estimation. I have pointed to the things that led me to that estimation. Neither of us has proof to solidify that the personal guesses that we're making are true. You're just going to have to wait on that just as I am going to have to do. There's no need to fall apart because of that.

So what are you’re estimations for other prospects: Terry, Steel Comtois and especially Max Jones who you just ranked higher than Lunderstom?

 

[Exit Dose]

Never expect great things, and you will never risk being laughed at by randos.
--Ghandi, probably.

Ghandi just didn't have the likes needed to defeat the Raj. Tragic.

 

[eternalbedhead]

Would you like to edit your post after this to omit the above, and then pretend I'm crazy for responding to that; like Ducks Nation did earlier?

'Twas a rhetorical question. I've scanned your responses a million times and your entire argument is predicated on the fact that Lundestrom has achieved far more than an average player his age would have; I just want you to provide more than just the simple "look at what he's done for his age" gig. Here's a list of your relevant responses. (in a spoiler so it doesn't spam up the page)

Spoiler

I have little doubt that Lundestrom ends up being an elite forward in the NHL. People will wonder why he didn't go in the top five. I'll eat the crow if it's ever served to me.

Claim, no evidence provided.

I didn't say that I expected him to be better. I said he has a shot at it. At this point probability factors into it, and I think there are plausible scenarios in which he does better(worse too, but this is about ceiling). Bergeron is where I'm placing my expectations at the moment.

Claim, although I realized at this point that we just have different definitions of the word "ceiling".

I believe that a player's ceiling is unmalleable; that is, it is a set level of potential that cannot be topped. You clearly view a ceiling as a high-end projection, but one that is not necessarily at the maximum of possible outcomes for the player's skill. That's fine. Agree to disagree on that matter, I guess.

That's the sort of center that I imagine him being, even with a shot at being a little better on offense.

Claim.

I said 'elite' for a reason.

Claim.

Correct. I think his ceiling could be above that, but at the moment, Bergeron is an accurate description of the player that I expect him to be.

Claim.

He was not projected to be the player that he became.

He also came out of Canadian junior. The numbers comparison is going to be meaningless.

A point made in defense -- player projections are ultimately meaningless. To that, I agree, but they're usually fairly accurate -- players like Bergeron who far outdo their projections are the anomaly.

How the hell have you completely missed that his stats in that league, during those years, were well above the norm? I wasn't even the only one to talk about that. He made the league, stuck in the league, and put up offensive numbers that most people would be happy about with a 20 year old, first round prospect. He's a 19 year old that's being handed a first line center job. The SHL isn't a feeder league like the AHL. That is not a normal thing at all. Staying competitive and winning the title is the ultimate goal there. Developing the younger players is done entirely for their sake. Unlike our lower leagues, players have to provide a reason to play them over veterans. Training the younger players is done solely to that end, not to train them for our leagues. My logic is that he has done things that only handful of prospects manage, both current and past.

More points in defense. 1) Lundestrom is a 1st line center in the SHL at an extremely young age, 2) His numbers are also far ahead of his peers, and 3) The SHL is competitive and doesn't give young players ice time for the purpose of giving young players ice time.

All valid points, but as I asked for a skill profile from you, this is missing it.

You have no idea what those numbers mean. The reality is, if he was achieving to the same extent in the CHL as he is in the SHL, you would not be raising a fuss about those predictions. You see what you think are low numbers, and that is the root of your skepticism. It is a low scoring league. The very top scorer in the league right now has 29 points in 33 games. 15 points in 42 games is very high for a young player there. They aren't just above average.

Another point made: the low scoring of the SHL can mute player achievements compared to the CHL. See: Sam Steel.

I like how the numbers are meaningless and I'm just providing anecdotes, even though that is exactly what you are running on. That is what we're all running on. Because these are prospects, and speculation is all that we have to work with.

To the points that haven't been diced over the last few pages, Bergeron wasn't having to make an adjustment to a completely different ice sheet and style of play the way that Lundestrom was. Further, his offensive output was equally out of step with his peers as Bergeron was with his. His elite prospects page has a draft profile that points to him being more than a primarily defensive center, and that shouldn't be controversial seeing as the reports that set this most recent discussion into motion were discussing exactly that. I'll just reiterate what I said earlier that they don't just hand out first line center jobs to 19 year olds in the SHL any more than that is casually done in the NHL. Those jobs have to be earned through demonstration, not promise. Finally, the year that someone makes the league does not in and of itself indicate anything. There are no shortage of players in and bound for the Hall Of Fame for whom that was true.

You provide a bit of a skill evaluation here, but only regarding his general level of offensive/defensive skill in a vague statement that indicates he has some level of offensive ability, which was never disputed. Otherwise, you still rely on the fact that Lundestrom is well above his peers for his age.

You're well within your rights to have an opinion and I'm well within my rights to debate you for it. Though the whole Kopitar/Hossa hybrid thing is an excellent example of what I'm talking about, and it rightly deserved the response it got (much more so than your claim), I'm going to go with another example to illustrate my point here. Let's go back to the lockout plagued 2012-13 season. Imagine your reaction if I told you that I expected Kevin Roy to become a perennial 30-40-goal scorer. We know now that that won't happen because Kevin Roy lacks the explosiveness and overall creativity to carve a 1st-line career as a small player, but what would you have told me then?

It wasn't impossible for Kevin Roy to become that good, but it certainly wasn't likely. For my defense, I could have pointed to the fact that Kevin Roy ranked (and still sits) 2nd all-time in U19 scoring for the USHL. Depending on what point of the season we were discussing this in, I could also have some of his freshman college performance, too -- he broke out the same year, development-wise, that Troy Terry did.

__________________________________________________________________________
​

Let's drop all that, though, and look at your claim that Lundestrom has achieved something special at his age, because I've mostly ignored that up until now.

In terms of U18 SHL seasons, he is tied for 25th (35th if PPG is used as a tiebreaker) in points. Some of the notable names above him? In increasing order of point production (lowest first) of players whose seasons fell in the last 10 years: William Nylander, Tim Erixon, Mika Zibanejad, Anton Lander, Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, David Gustafsson (2018, #60th overall), Jacob Josefson, Adam Larsson, Magnus Paajarvi, and Rasmus Dahlin.

Quite the mixed bag. With the exception of Dahlin, who's too young to tell, nobody here, forward or defenseman, is of Bergeron's caliber. There's a few borderline 1st-liners in there, and some garbage, and pretty much everyone else is a middle-6er. (or equivalent defenseman role)

In terms of U19 SHL seasons, he's down to a tie for 46th. In addition to the aforementioned players, joining the club are Lucas Elvenes, Carl Grundstrom, Lias Andersson, Axel Holmstrom, Victor Hedman, Jakub Vrana, and Elias Lindholm.

More of a mixed bag. Outside of Hedman, whose production as a defenseman topped Lundestrom at the same age, nobody is at Bergeron's caliber. Elias Lindholm has broken out this year so I'll include him as well, but he doubled Lundestrom's point totals in the same development year and was only a month younger at the time.

Lundestrom's achievements are noteworthy, especially considering his defensive skill and the ways he contributes off the scoresheet. But, as you can see, there's not a whole lot of room for hyperbole.

Now, these are only points -- it doesn't include ice time or utilization. But when the bulk of his point-based contemporaries are top 9 forwards at the NHL level -- and rarely elite -- then there's some added evidence that's needed.

 

[Exit Dose]

I'm not reading that wall of text. I'll reiterate what has been said before since it doesn't seem to have sunk in. Me thinking that he's going to hit his ceiling does not require an inquest. And my last reply on this subject was pretty clear, I'm done with this discussion. Stop pestering me with this shit. If you disagree with what I think is going to happen, then that is fine. That comment shouldn't have required hiring a lawyer.

You need to stop. This is bordering on sickness.

 

[dracom]

No, you did not come in here and state your opinion as absolute fact. But the certainty you displayed with that prediction fully entitles you to a thread full of people laughing you off or otherwise challenging your opinion. There's no falling apart on my part. I just think your prediction, while not impossible by any means, is not realistic.

Or people could just not make it such a big deal in the first place? Prospect predictions are a crap shoot, thinking one player may end up being similar to another (Bergeron or whoever) is also a crap shoot. He may do it, he may not, he may be better than his expected ceiling, he may get hurt and never play a game again, it doesn't matter right now. This argument has been one of the weirdest and most pointless ones I've seen on this board.

 

[bumperkisser]

i don't mind the discussion about lundestrom. i think it's been an interesting discussion back and forth to view both points. I've learned more information about the SHL and how they handle their youngins' then I knew before so thats a plus

That said it's pretty clear that Exit Dose is done discussing this so let's drop it and move forward

 

[eternalbedhead]

I'm not reading that wall of text. I'll reiterate what has been said before since it doesn't seem to have sunk in. Me thinking that he's going to hit his ceiling does not require an inquest. And my last reply on this subject was pretty clear, I'm done with this discussion. Stop pestering me with this ****. If you disagree with what I think is going to happen, then that is fine. That comment shouldn't have required hiring a lawyer.

You need to stop. This is bordering on sickness.

Soary. I just enjoy debating, even on trivial pieces of crap. Lol.

 

[alcolol]

I watched the first half of today's Lulea game against Skelleftea. Once Skelleftea went up 3-0, I figured the game was a mulligan and closed the tab. Lundestrom got the primary assist on Lulea's first goal minutes later. He finished the game with two SOG, 60% in faceoffs, and 22:32 TOI (a full 3 minutes more than the next highest TOI for forwards).

Playing on the larger ice surface in the SHL definitely plays into Lundestrom's biggest strength, which is puck possession and transition. He still looks to pass first, and nearly set up a goal from behind the net early in the first period, but it's not like his shot is weakness (think Getzlaf and his reluctance to shoot). Overall, Lundestrom is developing nicely in the SHL.

 

[mightyquack]

Locking this thread and cleaning this up since people can't stay on topic and/or civilised.

When this is unlocked later when everyone has cooled off I hope we can stop acting like children and bring it down a notch and keep the thread on topic.

Thank you.

 

[FLpanthers16]

Ruled a kick lol. The league is a joke when it comes to getting it right.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Ruled a kick lol. The league is a joke when it comes to getting it right.

Damn, that's some amazing multitasking and coordination if that's what Lundestrom meant to do with his kneeing the puck into the goal. Fight a defenseman, see the puck coming to him, keep upright with one leg, angle the other leg to redirect a long cross ice pass, and know it will definitively head towards the net!

Or the league is a joke. Those are the only two options. We either have a superstar on our hands or player got a lucky bounce. LoL

 

[Jagge11]