Player Discussion Is Zack Smith the real deal?

[FlyingJ]

I was waiting for this.

We just had a perennial 4th liner break out, and now looks like a great capable 3rd liner and fill-in second liner. We better trade him now for a second round pick that may or may not ever become as good!

#assetmanagement

Well, it depends on A) what you can get for him, and B) what his asking price on his next contract will be. For the time being, keep him. Odds are, as you said, we wouldn't be able to get more than a 2nd round pick for him. But towards the trade deadline, I'd say see what the offers are.

At the very least, the Sens would be smart to wait most of the season out before trying to negotiate an extension, something which I'd be a bit more worried they wouldn't do if Murray were still in charge.

The fact is the guy was shooting over 20% when his career average isn't even 10. People here can harp on about how it was all "hard work" or "grit" or finally being put with more skilled players (and the last one did have a big impact), but even when he was shooting the puck more often he was benefitting from abnormally high percentages even relative to elite goal scorers. Odds are he goes back to getting the team 10-15 goals, which is quite good for a bottom 6 role player. Again, would depend on what his asking price on a contract extension is.

 

[OD99]

He's not a good candidate to take on a bigger role because he's slow. Worse for him, because we already have a few slower players in the top-6.

Smith isn't slow. Especially for a big man he has plenty of speed.

He is one of the few forwards who can actually pick up the puck in the defensive zone and carry it in to the offensive zone. Slow skaters can't do that.

Keep but obviously cost has to be a factor.

 

[bert]

Smith isn't slow. Especially for a big man he has plenty of speed.

He is one of the few forwards who can actually pick up the puck in the defensive zone and carry it in to the offensive zone. Slow skaters can't do that.

Keep but obviously cost has to be a factor.

Yeah i am not sure how anyone can confuse Smith for a slow player. Atleast recently, he really picked up his fitness in the offseason and lost some weight. You can see his speed this year after putting in the work in the last offseason. Lets hope Bobby and Zibby got the memo.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Well, it depends on A) what you can get for him, and B) what his asking price on his next contract will be. For the time being, keep him. Odds are, as you said, we wouldn't be able to get more than a 2nd round pick for him. But towards the trade deadline, I'd say see what the offers are.

At the very least, the Sens would be smart to wait most of the season out before trying to negotiate an extension, something which I'd be a bit more worried they wouldn't do if Murray were still in charge.

The fact is the guy was shooting over 20% when his career average isn't even 10. People here can harp on about how it was all "hard work" or "grit" or finally being put with more skilled players (and the last one did have a big impact), but even when he was shooting the puck more often he was benefitting from abnormally high percentages even relative to elite goal scorers. Odds are he goes back to getting the team 10-15 goals, which is perfectly fine for a bottom 6 role player. Again, would depend on what his asking price on a contract extension is.

Thing is, you look at some of his goals, and you see how opportunistic he is. Taking advantage of breakdowns in front of the net, driving hard to the paint, quick snipes...

I doubt he stays at 20% shooting percentage, but it's not like he got a ton of goals throwing lucky muffins from the blueline, either. When you know what points in the game to go hard to the net and force teams to make mistakes, good things happen. Being a selective shooter isn't a bad thing.

 

[OD99]

SH% is a great statistic and of course he won't keep up 20% however there are a few other factors when we try to make a historical comparison.

1. He played a checking role where their intent was to get the puck in deep and keep it there. Face-offs in the O zone were a victory so getting pucks to the net from anywhere to stop play was encouraged.

This is also (IMHO) how we created the darling Condra - his CORSI is AMAZING!!! All his "shots" were from the blueline or against the boards yet he is celebrated like a 30 goal (or should I say 25 ) goal scorer.

2. He is playing with offensive minded players who want to create legit scoring chances and have the patience to do it.

3. He is playing with one of the best passers the Senators have had in recent times so is getting the puck in very good positions. The key is that he is actually burying those chances and really if we extrapolate his prowess since he was paired with Stone he could pot 35.

4. He has a + shot for sure and these are bouncing in off him.

I just can't see not giving him a chance to keep this going and even IF he does need to play with Stone to be that effective who cares? Use the players we have in the most efficient way possible.

If Z. Smith can score 25 goals playing with Stone and Pageau while they both excel what is wrong with that? That leaves:

Mac - Turris - Ryan >> proven they can play well together
Hoff - Zibby - X >> that pair has proven they can play/score together and we have options for the RW spot to at least try
Neil - Paul - X >> very short time frame but this pair worked well together and we have a load of options (not saying they are all great) for 4th line RW duty

The more I wrote the more convinced I am that Smith should be given opportunity to really shine and that is without taking in to consideration his abilities in the dot and the physical/pest element he brings.

 

[FlyingJ]

SH% is a great statistic and of course he won't keep up 20% however there are a few other factors when we try to make a historical comparison.

1. He played a checking role where their intent was to get the puck in deep and keep it there. Face-offs in the O zone were a victory so getting pucks to the net from anywhere to stop play was encouraged.

I guess you forgot how he lobbied MacLean to give him a more offensive role and put him on the wing to start the 2014-15 season? And he was healthy to start that season, and got the chance. It didn't stick because he didn't produce, and then he got injured.

This is also (IMHO) how we created the darling Condra - his CORSI is AMAZING!!! All his "shots" were from the blueline or against the boards yet he is celebrated like a 30 goal (or should I say 25 ) goal scorer.

And apparently you also missed how Condra got great scoring chances and just couldn't finish. Or that when he was on the ice the play of Pageau and Lazar improved and they kept the puck in the opposition's end more often while generating decent chances. But sure, yeah, he and his line only really generated shots from the blueline or boards

2. He is playing with offensive minded players who want to create legit scoring chances and have the patience to do it.

Yep, good to know who the ones actually driving play are. Hell, you could argue it was more Stone's doing given how the first half of Pageau's season was actually not particularly good.

3. He is playing with one of the best passers the Senators have had in recent times so is getting the puck in very good positions. The key is that he is actually burying those chances and really if we extrapolate his prowess since he was paired with Stone he could pot 35.

4. He has a + shot for sure and these are bouncing in off him.

I just can't see not giving him a chance to keep this going and even IF he does need to play with Stone to be that effective who cares? Use the players we have in the most efficient way possible.

So you've decided to only look at this very small sample size with specific players and believe this proves something, as opposed to the 350+ games he played before where his goal scoring was completely unremarkable? This isn't some kid figuring out the game either, he's 28 years old now. What happens when this line has a cold streak, as happens to all lines, and they get split up, which also happens to lines regularly in this league? What becomes of Smith then? Back to his usual bottom 6 checking role and 10-15 goals tops I guess.

I could just as easily argue that several of Smith's goals as he started to get hot were actually quite flukey. Shots from bad angles that the opposing goalies should have had. They helped Smith's confidence, sure, but again what happens when he doesn't get those?

If Z. Smith can score 25 goals playing with Stone and Pageau while they both excel what is wrong with that? That leaves:

Mac - Turris - Ryan >> proven they can play well together
Hoff - Zibby - X >> that pair has proven they can play/score together and we have options for the RW spot to at least try
Neil - Paul - X >> very short time frame but this pair worked well together and we have a load of options (not saying they are all great) for 4th line RW duty

Again, lines aren't fixed. They'll change, often probably. And when Zack isn't tied to Stone's hip, which is the only situation where we've seen him able to score consistently, what then?

The more I wrote the more convinced I am that Smith should be given opportunity to really shine and that is without taking in to consideration his abilities in the dot and the physical/pest element he brings.

Sure, give him a chance to keep it going. But when his shooting percentage reverts back to 10 or lower, don't be shocked. If he scores 20+ for a second season in a row, and maintains that production over an entire season this time not just a hot streak with the right linemates in the last third, then we'll talk about him really emerging.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Agreed, except I think that if Lazar in his 3rd yr can find more offence to his game I think he has the potential to replace Pageau as the 3rd line centre. That would allow Ottawa to bring up Paul as their 4th line centre without losing a lot of speed & making the team bigger especially down the centre. Having said that though, Pageau is so popular in this town I just don't see it happening, Pageau may actually put too many bums in the seats to trade anytime soon.

I don't know about you but I have a hard time believing that Lazar could put up 0.5+ PPG anytime soon like Pageau did this year.

Also, Lazar was close to the worst defensive forward we had last year (stats wise), while Pageau was arguably our very best.

For the foreseeable future it sure looks like Lazar is a pretty big downgrade from Pageau as our #3 C.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Speaking of Smith I remember one incident where he and Karlsson were going at each other on the bench. Anyone remember or know what it was about?

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

Agreed, except I think that if Lazar in his 3rd yr can find more offence to his game I think he has the potential to replace Pageau as the 3rd line centre. That would allow Ottawa to bring up Paul as their 4th line centre without losing a lot of speed & making the team bigger especially down the centre. Having said that though, Pageau is so popular in this town I just don't see it happening, Pageau may actually put too many bums in the seats to trade anytime soon.

I don't understand how you can agree that we need to keep a gritty role player in Smith but you want to get rid of a gritty role player in Pageau. I know you always want Pageau to be moved off the team, but why would you want to get rid of our best PKer and is very much a playoff performer, to make room for a complete unknown in Paul (other than Pageau is small and Paul is big)?

To me, both are valuable parts of the team.

Pageau re: blocking Subban slappers:

"Whatever (Subban) says, I guess I'm not going to move. I've got equipment on and that's my job. I'm not going to move, for sure. I don't care if his shot gets harder, like he said. I'm not moving," Pageau said Saturday.

We need more of that, not less.

 

[PatrickEaves]

I don't understand how you can agree that we need to keep a gritty role player in Smith but you want to get rid of a gritty role player in Pageau. I know you always want Pageau to be moved off the team, but why would you want to get rid of our best PKer and is very much a playoff performer, to make room for a complete unknown in Paul (other than Pageau is small and Paul is big)?

To me, both are valuable parts of the team.

You know you are talking to aragorn right?

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

You know you are talking to aragorn right?

That's why I added that haha. To see if there is actually any reasoning other than the size thing.

 

[Xspyrit]

The same thing can be said of Pageau. Smith scored plenty before Stone joined them. Pageau and Smith have some serious chemistry. Both should start together on the third line and on the PK.

THIS.

Smith is the one player that I want to see how Boucher influences. He had a fantastic year, yeah he probably punched above his weight but I happen to think he is more valuable than most.

You have to let him try to keep going on one of the top two lines to see if he can keep doing it. How long though?

Interesting player, you don't fluke what he did last year but I think he might work well with Stone. When I see Stone at these World Champ games, he seems to be able to set up most players and just needs someone to be able to stand in front of the net, take punishment and direct it in.

I like Smith and am pulling for him to keep it up.

Zack Smith is very important to a team's success, he is exactly the type of player a coach wants to have in his line-up. I mean, he was put in a position to succeed half a season and he scored 25 freaking goals, despite many HFers mocking Cameron for that.

Unequivocally, no.

But he's a guy you want on your team if you make the playoffs. He will just throw his body at opposing players with a complete disregard for his own safety. You need that. Guys who don't even need sticks in their hands. There is a role for them.

Ridiculous comment. ZS proved once again that he exactly knows what to do with a stick in his hands... Only 48 guys in the whole league scored more goals than him last season for Christ's sake...

I was waiting for this.

We just had a perennial 4th liner break out, and now looks like a great capable 3rd liner and fill-in second liner. We better trade him now for a second round pick that may or may not ever become as good!

#assetmanagement

Yeah this is facepalm worthy. Well, double facepalm worthy

Zack Smith is worth a lot more than a 2nd to a hockey team

It's unbelieveable! This team is so easy to play against which is why they are so poor defensively & the one guy that is very hard to play against people want to trade. Just makes no sense but hey we should bring back Prince instead who can stick handle with the best of them but contributes almost nothing.

It's hard to be convinced that all fans really understand the sport of hockey... In fact, Shane Prince has probably be deemed expendable because of the emergence of Zack Smith in a 3rd line LW role... It didn't work for him on LW in the past but with Pageau it works, because Pageau is fast, tenacious and has a motor.

I know you don't believe much in Pageau, but if there's one small guy we can afford to have, it's him.

Cheap, and continues that same level of hustle we saw last year. Even if he never breaks 20 or even 15 goals again, that hustle and energy on the bottom six has good value.

Yeah but guys who bring all that Smith brings (or less) get PAID.

Curtis Glencross got a 2.55 cap hit in 2011. Today, it would be over 3.0 easily.
David Jones got a 4.0 cap hit in 2012
Leo Komarov got a 2.95 cap hit in 2014
Cody Eakin just got a 3.85 cap hit

We could go on...

Mac - Turris - Ryan >> proven they can play well together
Hoff - Zibby - X >> that pair has proven they can play/score together and we have options for the RW spot to at least try
Neil - Paul - X >> very short time frame but this pair worked well together and we have a load of options (not saying they are all great) for 4th line RW duty.

Neil is a RW

MacArhur-Turris-Ryan
Hoffman-Zibanejad-Dzingel
Smith-Pageau-Stone
Lazar-Paul-Neil
Puempel/McCormick/Robinson

Here you go, 3 lines that can really score. Give them around 16-18 minutes per game at ES (if no special teams)

* Chiasson and Wiercioch traded.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

That's why I added that haha. To see if there is actually any reasoning other than the size thing.

The sample size of his posts has proved that the size thing is all that he really cares about.

For example he wants to replace a player who:

• Scored 43 points this year
• Was the best PKing forward on the team
• Led the league in SHG and SHP
• Was a +17 on a trainwreck of a team
• Plays as hard as anybody on the team
• Is one of the fastest players on the team
• Is the second cheapest regular forward on the team ($ 0.9 M)

Is there any logically reason to want to replace this 23 year old player? The only reason is because he is 5'9. Logic does not apply here, only a fetish for tall players.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

The sample size of his posts has proved that the size thing is all that he really cares about.

For example he wants to replace a player who:

• Scored 43 points this year
• Was the best PKing forward on the team
• Led the league in SHG and SHP
• Was a +17 on a trainwreck of a team
• Plays as hard as anybody on the team
• Is one of the fastest players on the team
• Is the second cheapest regular forward on the team ($ 0.9 M)

Is there any logically reason to want to replace this 23 year old player? The only reason is because he is 5'9. Logic does not apply here, only a fetish for tall players.

Yeah Pageau blew me away this year. We know he's clutch in the playoffs, now he's finding consistency.

Teams need players like that to win. Pageau should be pretty close to untouchable, unless somebody knocks your socks off with an offer, or you're using him to upgrade in a big way.

 

[Samsquanch]

I don't understand how you can agree that we need to keep a gritty role player in Smith but you want to get rid of a gritty role player in Pageau. I know you always want Pageau to be moved off the team, but why would you want to get rid of our best PKer and is very much a playoff performer, to make room for a complete unknown in Paul (other than Pageau is small and Paul is big)?

To me, both are valuable parts of the team.

Pageau re: blocking Subban slappers:



We need more of that, not less.

QFT. Pageau isnt going anywhere, and if the rest of the team played half as big as he does, this team would be a contender.

You cant teach what he brings to the table.

 

[Ouroboros]

How tall do you think aragorn is?

 

[Boud]

How tall do you think aragorn is?

Must be Alex Chiasson. Joking mates.

 

[OD99]

I guess you forgot how he lobbied MacLean to give him a more offensive role and put him on the wing to start the 2014-15 season? And he was healthy to start that season, and got the chance. It didn't stick because he didn't produce, and then he got injured.

Since I don't think that happened, at all, I didn't forget anything. Any time he was on the wing it was begrudgingly but last year he found a good fit. Perhaps you have no idea how different W and C are and can't appreciate that you don't just move from one to the other seamlessly.

And apparently you also missed how Condra got great scoring chances and just couldn't finish. Or that when he was on the ice the play of Pageau and Lazar improved and they kept the puck in the opposition's end more often while generating decent chances. But sure, yeah, he and his line only really generated shots from the blueline or boards

Thanks for reinforcing my point. Condra would have finished with 5 goals being with Stone/JGP yet you want to make the fact Smith buried chances as a fluke or a negative? You go ahead and quote me Corsi about Condra and I will quote you 25 goals back.

Yep, good to know who the ones actually driving play are. Hell, you could argue it was more Stone's doing given how the first half of Pageau's season was actually not particularly good.

Again thanks for making my point. The idea that having players compliment other players to make your line-up better seems to appall you however I think it is good asset management. Nobody is saying Smith did it on his own anyway.

So you've decided to only look at this very small sample size with specific players and believe this proves something, as opposed to the 350+ games he played before where his goal scoring was completely unremarkable? This isn't some kid figuring out the game either, he's 28 years old now. What happens when this line has a cold streak, as happens to all lines, and they get split up, which also happens to lines regularly in this league? What becomes of Smith then? Back to his usual bottom 6 checking role and 10-15 goals tops I guess.

I decided to look at how that line played, how Smith played individually and how Smith was contributing. He played extremely well in that role. If they can continue to produce then great. Who said lines are never changed? Not me. They may not even start the season together and if Smith puts up 10-15 goals in a checking role then that isn't bad either. Personally I think the line that finished the season can be an extremely effective checking/scoring line.

I could just as easily argue that several of Smith's goals as he started to get hot were actually quite flukey. Shots from bad angles that the opposing goalies should have had. They helped Smith's confidence, sure, but again what happens when he doesn't get those?

Sure you go ahead and review all the goals in the NHL so we can know what players REAL totals are and then we can re-rank the scoring leaders.

Again, lines aren't fixed. They'll change, often probably. And when Zack isn't tied to Stone's hip, which is the only situation where we've seen him able to score consistently, what then?

Again, nobody said they were and nobody said that Stone is the sole reason for Smith being able to score so I guess we would see what happens.

Sure, give him a chance to keep it going. But when his shooting percentage reverts back to 10 or lower, don't be shocked. If he scores 20+ for a second season in a row, and maintains that production over an entire season this time not just a hot streak with the right linemates in the last third, then we'll talk about him really emerging.

One thing we agree on except the right linemates thing. Not sure why you want nobody to compliment one another just to prove they don't need chemistry or whatever but I find it very odd.

 

[FlyingJ]

Since I don't think that happened, at all, I didn't forget anything. Any time he was on the wing it was begrudgingly but last year he found a good fit. Perhaps you have no idea how different W and C are and can't appreciate that you don't just move from one to the other seamlessly.

Um:

http://senschirp.ca/news/zack-smith-centre-wing/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/senators-tinker-with-forward-lines-as-they-look-for-improvements-at-centre/article21658241/

From the second link:

“If we’re going to mix anything up that’s the place to mix it up,” said MacLean. “Zack Smith playing on the wing hasn’t been as productive a player as Zack Smith playing at centre ice so in order to get Zack back at centre ice somebody has to move to the wing."

For the record, on November 19, 2014, Smith had just 2 points, both goals, in 17 games. And as the other link showed, he wanted to be there to get more of an opportunity.

So he happened to find a good fit this year in the last third of the season. Small. Sample. Size. Combined with a ridiculous shooting percentage. I wouldn't be comfortable betting on it happening again.

I'll ask again: what happens when that line goes on a cold streak? Is the team really going to keep it's best right winger in Stone with a career bottom 6 guy like Smith? This whole thread is asking if Smith is "the real deal." I say he had a good stretch but hasn't proven anything concrete.

Thanks for reinforcing my point. Condra would have finished with 5 goals being with Stone/JGP yet you want to make the fact Smith buried chances as a fluke or a negative? You go ahead and quote me Corsi about Condra and I will quote you 25 goals back.

Wow, one season where he got hot. I'll take a guy who plays well consistently over a single season of 25 goals on a non-playoff team where production was dependent on being put with the team's best forward. You do realize that grinders having the occassional good offensive season out of the blue is not unheard of, right? Chris Clark had 30 goals one year. Or hey, so did David Clarkson. Man, what key cogs to their respective teams! Boy oh boy, did they go on to repeat that production

And originally, you made it seem that Condra was just firing pucks from anywhere, which wasn't the case. He, Pageau, and Lazar also formed a hell of a checking line. Go figure, with him gone, Lazar and Pageau never played as well together. And unlike Smith's 1/3 of a season miracle, Condra was known for playing consistently well over several seasons.

Again thanks for making my point. The idea that having players compliment other players to make your line-up better seems to appall you however I think it is good asset management. Nobody is saying Smith did it on his own anyway.

And do you think that's always going to be the case when they're together? So again, this third of a season of hot production and a high shooting percentage is enough proof?

I decided to look at how that line played, how Smith played individually and how Smith was contributing. He played extremely well in that role. If they can continue to produce then great. Who said lines are never changed? Not me. They may not even start the season together and if Stone puts up 10-15 goals in a checking role then that isn't bad either. Personally I think the line that finished the season can be an extremely effective checking/scoring line.

Wait, Stone?! Please tell me you're not supporting keeping the team's best forward on the third freakin' line for the majority of the season. You meant Smith, right? Because yeah, 10-15 for Smith in a checking role is good. It also suggests he's not a consistent 20 goal scorer, not the "real deal."

Sure you go ahead and review all the goals in the NHL so we can know what players REAL totals are and then we can re-rank the scoring leaders.

Oh FFS. The difference here is the likes of Crosby, Ovechkin, or even more two-way guys like Toews is that they've produced good goal totals for years. They don't need flukey goals to kickstart goal scoring runs unprecedented in their careers.

One thing we agree on except the right linemates thing. Not sure why you want nobody to compliment one another just to prove they don't need chemistry or whatever but I find it very odd.

And again, who's to say that will last? Why not put Stone, the team's best forward, with better players and see if we get even better production overall, not just from a completely replaceable player like Smith?

 

[OD99]

Neither of your links suggest Smith lobbied Mac to put him on wing. He just says they talked about it at the end of season meeting. He has always been a good team guy so he said whatever helps the team.

Condra in no way, shape or form could be considered and offensive catalyst. He shot from the wall all the time but yes of course that line did get some good opportunities, as infrequent as they were.

Obviously I meant Smith and if you want to call Stone's line the 3rd simply because Smith would be on it go ahead. They were our #1 line on many occasions last year.

If only scoring in the NHL was so easy...get a few flukey goals and then bingo! You now have 25. That is so short sighted.

Look we disagree - you are looking for every reason to suggest Smith is no good but I am of the opinion his skills were put in a position to be maximized last season and I would like to see that continue.

 

[FlyingJ]

Neither of your links suggest Smith lobbied Mac to put him on wing. He just says they talked about it at the end of season meeting. He has always been a good team guy so he said whatever helps the team.

Condra in no way, shape or form could be considered and offensive catalyst. He shot from the wall all the time but yes of course that line did get some good opportunities, as infrequent as they were.

Obviously I meant Smith and if you want to call Stone's line the 3rd simply because Smith would be on it go ahead. They were our #1 line on many occasions last year.

If only scoring in the NHL was so easy...get a few flukey goals and then bingo! You now have 25. That is so short sighted.

Look we disagree - you are looking for every reason to suggest Smith is no good but I am of the opinion his skills were put in a position to be maximized last season and I would like to see that continue.

Again, it was one year. One year. It happens with grinders. It does not make Smith or any them the "real deal." This is more similar to teams like the 2013-14 Avalanche, the 2012-13 Maple Leafs, or the 2014-15 Flames all making the playoffs by being dependent on very good shooting percentages and above average goaltending. What happened to each team in their respective follow-up seasons? Oh, right, missed the playoffs.

I'm not suggesting Smith is "no good," but rather that he's a bottom 6 guy who got lucky. And that we shouldn't expect similar production to be the norm from him, nor should we handicap the team's best forward in Stone just to make him look good even when his shooting percentage inevitably comes back down to Earth.

Also never said Condra was an offensive catalyst, but infrequent scoring chances for his line? The line with him, Lazar and Pageau was one of Ottawa's most consistent lines down the stretch last year providing quality play, scoring chances, and keeping the puck out of their own end. So why is Smith's streak to end this past season real but you dismiss what Condra's line did so easily to the point that most of his shots came from the wall according to you?

 

[Micklebot]

WRT to Smith playing wing to start 2014/15, and lobbying for a bigger role; That year we were going into the season with Turris, Zibanejad and Legwand ahead of him at Center. Smith saw himself as more of a 3rd liner, and wanted to continue in that role. He wasn't really lobbying for an offensive opportunity, he was lobbying to not be buried on the 4th line with Neil and Greening.

Moving him away from playing winger to Legwand isn't really an indictment of his ability to play an offensive role; he certainly wasn't playing a traditional top 6 role to start the season, and was getting mostly D zone starts. I'd hardly call Smith playing wing early in 2014-15 a failure of him to play an offensive role. It was more a failure in MacLean to put complimentary pieces together; Legwand and Smith really don't work.

As for whether he will continue to produce, or if last season was a flash in the pan; well, he certainly won't maintain the sh%. That said, the underlying numbers of the Smith-Pageau-Stone line are actually fantastic:

261:16 Mins 3.44 GF/60 1.38 GA/60 71.4 GF% 66.37 CF/60 52.82 CA/60 55.7 CF% in 42.5 OZ%

We can expect the GF/60 to drop, the GF/60 to rise 20% each and still have a fantastic line. Even if it drop/rises 40%, that line is still productive.

Now, 261 mins is a small sample, but it's getting close to where Corsi metrics stabilize, so while they may not maintain 55% + levels of CF%, they should be able to maintain good numbers.

 

[FlyingJ]

WRT to Smith playing wing to start 2014/15, and lobbying for a bigger role; That year we were going into the season with Turris, Zibanejad and Legwand ahead of him at Center. Smith saw himself as more of a 3rd liner, and wanted to continue in that role. He wasn't really lobbying for an offensive opportunity, he was lobbying to not be buried on the 4th line with Neil and Greening.

Moving him away from playing winger to Legwand isn't really an indictment of his ability to play an offensive role; he certainly wasn't playing a traditional top 6 role to start the season, and was getting mostly D zone starts. I'd hardly call Smith playing wing early in 2014-15 a failure of him to play an offensive role. It was more a failure in MacLean to put complimentary pieces together; Legwand and Smith really don't work.

As for whether he will continue to produce, or if last season was a flash in the pan; well, he certainly won't maintain the sh%. That said, the underlying numbers of the Smith-Pageau-Stone line are actually fantastic:

261:16 Mins 3.44 GF/60 1.38 GA/60 71.4 GF% 66.37 CF/60 52.82 CA/60 55.7 CF% in 42.5 OZ%

We can expect the GF/60 to drop, the GF/60 to rise 20% each and still have a fantastic line. Even if it drop/rises 40%, that line is still productive.

Now, 261 mins is a small sample, but it's getting close to where Corsi metrics stabilize, so while they may not maintain 55% + levels of CF%, they should be able to maintain good numbers.

Hey, you know who the right winger with Legwand and Smith was to start the year? Stone. And IIRC, MacLean essentially had Legwand playing 2nd line centre to start that year, or at least splitting it with Zibanejad.

And even if their numbers are good, as you mentioned, it's still a small sample size, and what happens when Smith's shooting percentage drops, as even you think it will? Even if it goes down to 12 (so still better than his norm), are we really going to stick the team's best forward in Stone with this guy regularly?

 

[OD99]

Also never said Condra was an offensive catalyst, but infrequent scoring chances for his line? The line with him, Lazar and Pageau was one of Ottawa's most consistent lines down the stretch last year providing quality play, scoring chances, and keeping the puck out of their own end. So why is Smith's streak to end this past season real but you dismiss what Condra's line did so easily to the point that most of his shots came from the wall according to you?

Because Smith and his line scored goals to win us games.

Condra's line wasn't nearly as effective as you imagine. They weren't bad at all but their Corsi numbers don't mean they were great.

 

[FlyingJ]

Because Smith and his line scored goals to win us games.

Condra's line wasn't nearly as effective as you imagine. They weren't bad at all but their Corsi numbers don't mean they were great.

And again, how is Smith's season any different from the likes of Chris Clark or David Clarkson or any other grinder who suddenly had a high goal total out of the blue?

And yeah, Condra's line having good Corsi numbers kinda suggests they were good. Goal scoring isn't the only way to be a good contributer in the NHL.