Is Thomas Greiss Toast?

[MBH]

You probably saw Greiss smash his stick after that seventh Chicago goal yesterday. I remember thinking, wow, Greiss really got lit up this period. The losing must be getting to him.
In my head, I'd kind of assumed Greiss was playing well but having very little fortune.
And then I actually looked at his stats.
1 win
11 losses
3 OTL.
3.46 GAA
.882 sv%
Barf.
Jimmy Howard last year.
2 wins
23 losses.
2 OTL
4.20 GAA
.882 save percentage.
Outside the GAA - those numbers are awfully similar. Similarly awful.
Greiss is 35. And that's about the age the wheels fell off for Jimmy Howard.
Starting to make me wonder if Yzerman can afford to trade Bernier or let him walk away. You need one passable goalie, right?

Click to read more...

 

[Tetsuo]

The old "goalies are voodoo" adage probably applies but at this point if I'm Steve Yzerman I'm extending and protecting Bernier over Greiss.

 

[Bondurant]

Greiss is a good player yet there is a reason that he has been on 5 teams in 12 years.

 

[jaster]

I tried to warn of the strong possibility of this outcome before the season. You had suggested Greiss was the clearly superior goalie and that Detroit should consider waiving Bernier in order to acquire some other goalie who was waived.

Waiving Bernier would be moronic. Even trading him might be, depending on how he and Greiss perform this year. I like Greiss, but he's stepping to a team that is near the complete opposite of where he's coming from. Bernier proved that he could be an outstanding goalie on one of the worst teams of the century. Greiss has proven nothing of the sort. It should shock no one if Greiss turns in a real shitty season.

I put a lot more stock in last season than I do in a couple scrimmages after a massive layoff. Much larger sample size and much more meaningful games. Bernier should start Thursday night. I expect him to not be as good as last season simply because that performance was probably not sustainable and he'll be due for some regression. Greiss I give a 50% chance of having a good-to-ok season that matches or could slightly exceed Bernier's season, and a 50% of being completely dummied.

Greiss sucking is no surprise to me. Bernier has been here. He's proven himself with this miserable squad. He was a top-10 goalie down the stretch last season with the worst team in the league. Greiss is coming from a much better defensive structure, where his acrobatics weren't so easily exposed. Him getting lit up here is disappointing, but not shocking.

That said, he's not toast. Still got 30-some games to go, he'll get plenty of chances to rebound. Starting to become clear that Bernier should be re-signed (if he's willing) and protected though.

 

[YpsiWings]

I thought Greiss played well first half of the season or so, was real impressed with his positioning. Then it seemed like when he realized if he let in more then two goals Detroit would lose he started pressing and the best part of his game went in the dumpster. He has obviously had some stinkers recently, but that is to be expected with this awful roster. I’m not ready to throw the towel in on him, he is not as bad as the stats would suggest.

 

[MBH]

I tried to warn of the strong possibility of this outcome before the season. You had suggested Greiss was the clearly superior goalie and that Detroit should consider waiving Bernier in order to acquire some other goalie who was waived.




Greiss sucking is no surprise to me. Bernier has been here. He's proven himself with this miserable squad. He was a top-10 goalie down the stretch last season with the worst team in the league. Greiss is coming from a much better defensive structure, where his acrobatics weren't so easily exposed. Him getting lit up here is disappointing, but not shocking.

That said, he's not toast. Still got 30-some games to go, he'll get plenty of chances to rebound. Starting to become clear that Bernier should be re-signed (if he's willing) and protected though.

I never suggested Greiss was superior.
And I never wanted to waive Bernier. I said the only way to claim the goalie, Nedwhatever, would be to waive another goalie - and i said Bernier because he was a UFA and Greiss has another year left.
But I still didn't think it was feasible.
"I think I'd keep Bernier and trade him at the deadline."
Which would still be my plan if Greiss was giving us passable goaltending.

 

[bedtime20]

I think we keep Bernier and try to trade greiss. I think we could get away with running a Bernier/Pickard tandem next year because hopefully we have new coaching and Seider to help our goalies.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

You probably saw Greiss smash his stick after that seventh Chicago goal yesterday. I remember thinking, wow, Greiss really got lit up this period. The losing must be getting to him.
In my head, I'd kind of assumed Greiss was playing well but having very little fortune.
And then I actually looked at his stats.
1 win
11 losses
3 OTL.
3.46 GAA
.882 sv%
Barf.
Jimmy Howard last year.
2 wins
23 losses.
2 OTL
4.20 GAA
.882 save percentage.
Outside the GAA - those numbers are awfully similar. Similarly awful.
Greiss is 35. And that's about the age the wheels fell off for Jimmy Howard.
Starting to make me wonder if Yzerman can afford to trade Bernier or let him walk away. You need one passable goalie, right?

One stat you should post up there is goal support. Another worth finding (if you can) is how many penalties we take when Greiss is in, and what our PK percentage is in those games.

I think his confidence is shaken, for sure. He was really good in his few starts this season. The team has not been nearly as supportive in front of him as they are Bernier. Much sloppier defensive play, a lot more high danger chances, and unfavorable matchups on the ice. I think 3 of the goals he let in against Chicago he had Djoos/Biega on ice with Frans Nielsen, for crying out loud.

One of the big differences I've noticed between goalies is how much more the team clears the front of the net when Bernier plays versus when Greiss plays. If someone is in front of Bernier they get bumped. When Greiss is in, our defense stand around and pick their noses.

I'm not ready to say that Greiss is the second coming of Howard just yet. When we play a string of solid defensive games in front of him and he's still giving up 4+ a game, then I think it's a discussion worth having. As of now our very inconsistent team does not put together consistent efforts between games. We have won 2 or more in a row this season ONCE. Both times Bernier got the start. And we didn't win those games because Bernier. We won those 2 games because the team was gifted a game by Rinne, and another by Subban.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I thought Greiss played well first half of the season or so, was real impressed with his positioning. Then it seemed like when he realized if he let in more then two goals Detroit would lose he started pressing and the best part of his game went in the dumpster. He has obviously had some stinkers recently, but that is to be expected with this awful roster. I’m not ready to throw the towel in on him, he is not as bad as the stats would suggest.

Agreed.

Greiss was better than his stats indicate for the first half of the season behind this dumpster fire of a team, but he has definitely not been good recently. Maybe all the losing got him rattled.

 

[Kronwalled55]

Greiss has given the team a chance to win many of his starts, Howard was routinely giving up 3 goals by the 10 minute mark of games. Even if the numbers at the end of the day are similar, it's the context.

Also, look at the quality of competition Greiss has faced so far. Not an easy sample size by any means, only CBJ and NSH technically have losing records.

TB x2
DAL x2
FLA x5
CHI x3
CAR
CBJ
NSH

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Greiss has given the team a chance to win many of his starts, Howard was routinely giving up 3 goals by the 10 minute mark of games. Even if the numbers at the end of the day are similar, it's the context.

Also, look at the quality of competition Greiss has faced so far. Not an easy sample size by any means, only CBJ and NSH technically have losing records.

TB x2
DAL x2
FLA x5
CHI x3
CAR
CBJ
NSH

Wow, yeah. Those are the big ones.

That helps put things into perspective. And it also makes it seem really unfair to the guy.

 

[DetroitRed]

He had a number of good games this season, so I don't write him off completely. But going forward, after this season, I wouldn't be interested in him.

He is approaching average retirement age for a goalie anyway, certainly next season it's a question he will face.

Back to this season though, at the start, he was playing about on par with Bernier. Granted, he wasn't winning, but to me, that had to do with goal support. Recently, I was thinking that maybe he felt a little more competitive at the start of the season because starting goalie for the Wings wasn't set in stone yet, plus the team wasn't so out of the playoff picture.

He's played badly lately, but I think he's got enough left to make it through the season and maybe even have mostly decent performances during the remaining stretch.

 

[Dotter]

His confidence is toast.

 

[TheMule93]

# parentheses define redox/valence state Howard was routinely giving up 3 goals by the 10 minute mark of games. Even if the numbers at the end of the day are similar, it's the context.

Also, look at the quality of competition Greiss has faced so far. Not an easy sample size by any means, only CBJ and NSH technically have losing records.

TB x2
DAL x2
FLA x5
CHI x3
CAR
CBJ
NSH

Not really. Hes statistically the worst goalie in the league taking into consideration expected goals saved above/below average.

Bernier gives us the opportunity to win on any given night

 

[sepster]

I never suggested Greiss was superior.
And I never wanted to waive Bernier. I said the only way to claim the goalie, Nedwhatever, would be to waive another goalie - and i said Bernier because he was a UFA and Greiss has another year left.
But I still didn't think it was feasible.
"I think I'd keep Bernier and trade him at the deadline."
Which would still be my plan if Greiss was giving us passable goaltending.

As Greiss' numbers have sunk over the past month and then he smashed his stick Sunday, I definitely recalled you arguing to move Bernier in favor of Greiss. I think your take here is a little bit of revisionist history.

 

[MBH]

As Greiss' numbers have sunk over the past month and then he smashed his stick Sunday, I definitely recalled you arguing to move Bernier in favor of Greiss. I think your take here is a little bit of revisionist history.

Yeah. Of course. Bernier is a free agent with trade value.
Greiss is signed (and at the time was playing well).

But my plan was to trade him, not waive him.

 

[DetroitRed]

I would still say he's better than Howard and the difference is the GAA.

Almost every team in the league can score 3 goals a game, very few can score 4, but no team averages 5 goals a game. So, Greiss is typically giving the team a reasonable chance at getting at least an OT loss. Can't say that looking at Howard's GAA last year.

 

[RedMenace]

Greiss is not toast.

He's almost certainly a human male, not a piece of sightly burned bread.

 

[Gniwder]

The whole point of signing Greiss was because Bernie can't handle a full starter workload. WHile Bernie is playing great, there's nothing that indicates he'll be able to handle a full season workload by himself next season. Just re-sign Bernie, expose Greiss, keep both next season. The team doesn't have a prospect ready to play anyways.

Greiss needs a couple games of to cool down, he'll be fine.

Also, steal the Capitals goaltending coach. That's the key move. Their goalies do better in the NHL than AHL.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Scapegoat.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Not Toast. Slightly sun-burned & lightly toasted Toaster Strudel at worst.

Adjustment period to a quasi-dumpster fire.

He went from a deep state of insulation (NYI's D/system) to facing our enemies point blank on the front lines.

 

[GMR]

Greiss is a good player yet there is a reason that he has been on 5 teams in 12 years.

Because he's German?

 

[MBH]

On another board, someone made the point that his numbers were inflated by Trotz... and between that and his age, I don't see why red flags didn't go up for me earlier.

 

[golffuul]

On another board, someone made the point that his numbers were inflated by Trotz... and between that and his age, I don't see why red flags didn't go up for me earlier.

Because his decent numbers pre-dated Trotz and it's not like he's ever been as remotely horrible as he has been with Detroit. And even then, aside from two or three games, he hasn't been that horrible. Is he a #1 goaltender? No. But he's, normally, a very competent backup who can play long stretches when injuries occur. I honestly think the team's "issues" effect more then the players/coaches are willing to admit.

 

[MBH]

Because his decent numbers pre-dated Trotz and it's not like he's ever been as remotely horrible as he has been with Detroit. And even then, aside from two or three games, he hasn't been that horrible. Is he a #1 goaltender? No. But he's, normally, a very competent backup who can play long stretches when injuries occur. I honestly think the team's "issues" effect more then the players/coaches are willing to admit.

First 4 games.
0-3-1 2.53 .917 sv%

Next 11
1-8-2 .866 3.88 sv%


9 of 15 games under .900.
That's rough.