Is this the "worst" year for rookies in a while?

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Don't get me wrong, there are some excellent rookies this year, but when you look back at the past 5 years, this one might be near the bottom.

I think we might start seeing the decline of the "super rookie" phase as the injection of young talent we saw from 2014 - 2018 is starting to really establish themselves, making it increasingly difficult for young players to take on dominant roles (as there are less aging vets around to take them from). Remember when MacKinnon came in and put up such a dominant rookie season (compared to prior years). Well since then there have been 13 other rookies to come in and score at a higher pace than him! That tells you how amazing the recent rookie classes have been.

For consideration, here are some of the top rookies from past classes.

2017-18:
Barzal
Keller
Hischier
Connor
Boeser
Sergachev
Debrincat
Dubois
Patrick

2016-17:
Matthews
Laine
Marner
Nylander
Werenski
Aho
Tkachuk
Point

2015-16:
McDavid
Eichel
Panarin
Ghost
Domi
Reinhart
Ehlers

2014-15
Gaudreau
Forsberg
Stone
Ekblad
Klingberg
Hoffman
Kuznetsov
Hayes

I don't think Petterson, Dahlin, and Tkachuk will end up comparing too favorably to the elites in these groups, and this year's rookie depth is . . . . mediocre.

Do you think we are going to start seeing a drop off in rookie impact over the next few years? And is this year the start of it?

Click to read more...

 

[42]

Don't get me wrong, there are some excellent rookies this year, but when you look back at the past 5 years, this one might be near the bottom.

I think we might start seeing the decline of the "super rookie" phase as the injection of young talent we saw from 2014 - 2018 is starting to really establish themselves, making it increasingly difficult for young players to take on dominant roles (as there are less aging vets around to take them from). Remember when MacKinnon came in and put up such a dominant rookie season (compared to prior years). Well since then there have been 13 other rookies to come in and score at a higher pace than him! That tells you how amazing the recent rookie classes have been.

For consideration, here are some of the top rookies from past classes.

2017-18:
Barzal
Keller
Hischier
Connor
Boeser
Sergachev
Debrincat
Dubois
Patrick

2016-17:
Matthews
Laine
Marner
Nylander
Werenski
Aho
Tkachuk
Point

2015-16:
McDavid
Eichel
Panarin
Ghost
Domi
Reinhart
Ehlers

2014-15
Gaudreau
Forsberg
Stone
Ekblad
Klingberg
Hoffman
Kuznetsov
Hayes

I don't think Petterson, Dahlin, and Tkachuk will end up comparing too favorably to the elites in these groups, and this year's rookie depth is . . . . mediocre.

Do you think we are going to start seeing a drop off in rookie impact over the next few years? And is this year the start of it?

Really? I think Petterson and Dahlin will end up among the best among all the players you've listed.

Did MacKinnon really put up a dominant rookie season? I wouldn't call 63 points in 82 games exactly dominant.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Really? I think Petterson and Dahlin will end up among the best among all the players you've listed.

Did MacKinnon really put up a dominant rookie season? I wouldn't call 63 points in 82 games exactly dominant.

His rookie season was dominant when compared to prior years. Go ahead and see for yourself.

I think Dahlin will be up in the top 5, Petterson probably 10-15. But this class also lacks depth.

 

[42]

His rookie season was dominant when compared to prior years. Go ahead and see for yourself.

I think Dahlin will be up in the top 5, Petterson probably 10-15. But this class also lacks depth.

Yeah, I agree about the lack of depth. But Pettersson and Dahlin will be in the conversation for top 10 player in the game.

 

[Drytoast]

Really? I think Petterson and Dahlin will end up among the best among all the players you've listed.

Did MacKinnon really put up a dominant rookie season? I wouldn't call 63 points in 82 games exactly dominant.

Not sure if serious.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think you're also forgetting Tkachuk for this year, I was surprised to see he was at 9 goals and 16 points in 17 games. I thought he had gigantic red flags about being a bust before the draft, shows how much I know

I do agree that the depth is for sure lacking this year. You have Petterson, Dahlin and Tkachuk at the top level, but then there's a drop off to guys like Batherson, Comtois (who was already sent back to juniors for reasons I don't understand), White and a bunch of sub-.5 PPG players. You had way more 50+ point rookies last year than you have rookies on pace for 50+ points this year. You have 4 this year (Petterson, Tkachuk, Batherson and Comtois), one of which was already sent back to juniors. Last year, you had 7 guys actually get over 50 points and 9 guys who were on pace for 50 or more points.

 

[Todd from Leduc]

McDavid was the best rookie of all time.

 

[Empoleon8771]

McDavid was the best rookie of all time.

lol no he wasn't

 

[pettersson]

You realize Pettersson is on pace to beat everyone but barzal on this list right (yes, despite his injury) and McDavid(give it to him cause he would have been 80+ if he played whole season)? And give dahlin a couple more seasons and he's gonna be one of the best d-men (yes, he's that good now)

 

[42]

Not sure if serious.

Surely I'm serious.

 

[Drytoast]

Surely I'm serious.

Ok...I don't see it just yet. But maybe they will pan out.

 

[kevsh]

I think you have to wait at least few years before assessing any rookie class. Just look at Domi as a prime example: Up until this year I doubt he'd have made your list. Some players take time to make an impact and others (like Morgan Reilly) take even longer.

 

[ForumNamePending]

I dunno... When the rookie class includes this dude I'd say it's pretty strong.

 

[Mathew Barzal]

I mean, are you asking us to predict how good the next couple of drafts will be?

Who knows how prospects will develop and play in their rookie seasons. This year's depth is shallow comparatively, but I'm not sure what you're trying to get at by stating so. None of us can predict the future, which is what one has to do to tell if we're in for more 'super rookie' seasons.

 

[Kcb12345]

Probably just appears that way because a lot of the best rookies this year are dmen

Dahlin, Heiskanen, Pettersson, and Tkachuk are all amazing rookies.

Those first 3 have franchise potential as well. This is like calling the 2017 draft class "weak". You'll realize later on down the line that it's not bad at all. 2 dmen that could win Norris's in their careers in 1 rookie class is pretty amazing if you ask me

 

[WingsMJN2965]

McDavid was the best rookie of all time.

Watch how quickly this argument gets shot down!

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think you have to wait at least few years before assessing any rookie class. Just look at Domi as a prime example: Up until this year I doubt he'd have made your list. Some players take time to make an impact and others (like Morgan Reilly) take even longer.

Domi had like 52 points in his rookie season . . .

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You realize Pettersson is on pace to beat everyone but barzal on this list right (yes, despite his injury) and McDavid(give it to him cause he would have been 80+ if he played whole season)? And give dahlin a couple more seasons and he's gonna be one of the best d-men (yes, he's that good now)

Petterson is still due for a good amount of statistical regression.

 

[Just Linda]

Two rookies are gunning at slightly less than a point per game pace.

Dahlin and Heiskanen are two of the best rookie prospects to have come around in quite a while. Dahlin is on pace for 40pts as an 18 year old dman, that's absurdly rare in this league.

Even players like Kotkaneimi could turn it up big in the second half.

It's not a worse year for rookies, it's just a less hyped one. AM was in Toronto, McDavid is generational donor course their year gets more press.

I'd say this year's class is much better than last year's.

 

[The Hockey Tonk Man]

you missed a lot of Bruin's rookies in your lists there bud. Just sayin.

 

[Djp]

Don't get me wrong, there are some excellent rookies this year, but when you look back at the past 5 years, this one might be near the bottom.

I think we might start seeing the decline of the "super rookie" phase as the injection of young talent we saw from 2014 - 2018 is starting to really establish themselves, making it increasingly difficult for young players to take on dominant roles (as there are less aging vets around to take them from). Remember when MacKinnon came in and put up such a dominant rookie season (compared to prior years). Well since then there have been 13 other rookies to come in and score at a higher pace than him! That tells you how amazing the recent rookie classes have been.


I don't think Petterson, Dahlin, and Tkachuk will end up comparing too favorably to the elites in these groups, and this year's rookie depth is . . . . mediocre.

Do you think we are going to start seeing a drop off in rookie impact over the next few years? And is this year the start of it?

First of all you are mixing apples and oranges. There is a sraft class, then there is a rookie class. In your grouping those were rookies who came in coming from different draft years.

Some of them may have had time in the AHL as an 18 or 18 year old.

the game is shifting to younger because of the need to balance costs.

What has happen in other sports with a salary cap is the stars get paid. The journeyman average player gets pushed aside.

Teams will say do I want to go with this player asking for $3M for what I know he can put up vs do I go with this ELC rookie who has a bigger potential but also has a risk of not matching this players performance.

You will see teams switch to doing ELC+ 2-3 yr bridge+ 7-8 yr contract taking them to 31-32. Then after it will be short contracts.

 

[authentic]

Surely I'm serious.

He'll be better than McDavid?

 

[authentic]

Two rookies are gunning at slightly less than a point per game pace.

Dahlin and Heiskanen are two of the best rookie prospects to have come around in quite a while. Dahlin is on pace for 40pts as an 18 year old dman, that's absurdly rare in this league.

Even players like Kotkaneimi could turn it up big in the second half.

It's not a worse year for rookies, it's just a less hyped one. AM was in Toronto, McDavid is generational donor course their year gets more press.

I'd say this year's class is much better than last year's.

Matthews finished 2nd in goals and McDavid was 3rd in points per game in his rookie season. Both were also better prospects than Dahlin and Pettersson.

 

[pettersson]

Matthews finished 2nd in goals and McDavid was 3rd in points per game in his rookie season. Both were also better prospects than Dahlin and Pettersson.

Pettersson has 3 more goals than Matthews did at the 24 game mark.

 

[pettersson]

Petterson is still due for a good amount of statistical regression.

Yeah? He already went through that. Now that he's playing with guys that can actually play hockey, I think he'll be doing better.