Is Stamkos a HOF lock?

[MVP of West Hollywd]

I feel like after his first four seasons he hasn't been at HOF level. But in those first four he has two Rockets including a 60 goal season.

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[Zuluss]

Career-wise, Stamkos is a modern-day healthier Bure. His peak was always good enough for HOF (though Bure was much better in big games), but not extraordinary enough to be inducted on 4-5 full seasons. Bure got in on his only 5 healthy seasons, but he had to wait. The more good seasons like the one just passed Stamkos adds, the shorter his waiting time is going to be. A few more top10 finishes in points/goals, some compiling to get past 600 goals and 1200 points, and he might even be first-ballot or close.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Career-wise, Stamkos is a modern-day healthier Bure. His peak was always good enough for HOF (though Bure was much better in big games), but not extraordinary enough to be inducted on 4-5 full seasons. Bure got in on his only 5 healthy seasons, but he had to wait. The more good seasons like the one just passed Stamkos adds, the shorter his waiting time is going to be. A few more top10 finishes in points/goals, some compiling to get past 600 goals and 1200 points, and he might even be first-ballot or close.

Please don't insult Pavel Bure like that.

 

[Zuluss]

Please don't insult Pavel Bure like that.

That's no insult.

Top-10 finishes in points
Stamkos 2, 2, 5, 5, 9
Bure 2, 3, 5, 7

Top-10 finishes in goals
Stamkos 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4, 7
Bure 1, 1, 1, 3, 5

Hart voting
Stamkos 2, 6, 8, 11, 11
Bure 3, 9, 12

In fact, Bure is getting all possible credit for his talent and the time he missed when compared with Stamkos. Looking at career numbers, it begins to feel as if Stamkos had a better career.

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

If Ovechkin wasnt in the league, Stamkos would he considered the best goal scorer of the past 10 years by far and wide.

I know people dont like that sort of argument,but that's usually people who also use that about the Gretz era (if gretz and lemieux weren't there...). Thet said not comparing him to people like Yzerman

Idk. You either get my point or you dont. But hes lost I think 4 rockets to Ovechkin. Or maybe 3, not sure.

 

[Zuluss]

If Ovechkin wasnt in the league, Stamkos would he considered the best goal scorer of the past 10 years by far and wide.

I know people dont like that sort of argument,but that's usually people who also use that about the Gretz era (if gretz and lemieux weren't there...). Thet said not comparing him to people like Yzerman

Idk. You either get my point or you dont. But hes lost I think 4 rockets to Ovechkin. Or maybe 3, not sure.

Stamkos lost two Rockets to Ovechkin, 12/13 and 14/15, and one to Perry, 10/11.
He also stole one of Ovechkin's Richards (09/10), when he edged Ovechkin by a goal only because Ovechkin missed 10 games that year.

On the other hand, looking at Stamkos' goal leads over the field (say, #10 in goals) it seems that he had five seasons when he led the field just as much or more than Ovechkin did in the past two years. So Stamkos has 5 "Richard-worthy" seasons.

 

[bobholly39]

Stamkos lost two Rockets to Ovechkin, 12/13 and 14/15, and one to Perry, 10/11.
He also stole one of Ovechkin's Richards (09/10), when he edged Ovechkin by a goal only because Ovechkin missed 10 games that year.

On the other hand, looking at Stamkos' goal leads over the field (say, #10 in goals) it seems that he had five seasons when he led the field just as much or more than Ovechkin did in the past two years. So Stamkos has 5 "Richard-worthy" seasons.

"Richard-worthy"? Lol. It's one thing to be "Hart-worthy" or "Conn Smythe Worthy" as those are subjective - the Rocket is not. You're only worth if you score more goals than everyone else and he did that twice, not 5x

I don't think Stamkos is a HOF lock yet. But if he continues with expected longevity he should make it quite easily. Not the same as being a lock though.

 

[Zuluss]

"Richard-worthy"? Lol. It's one thing to be "Hart-worthy" or "Conn Smythe Worthy" as those are subjective - the Rocket is not. You're only worth if you score more goals than everyone else and he did that twice, not 5x

Many players finishing 2nd and 3rd in a strong year actually had better seasons than someone who finished 1st in a weak year. Ovechkin was a better goal-scorer in 09/10 than he was this season - but in 09/10 he finished 3rd in goals, and this year he got the Richard trophy. Yet, by any reasonable metric of dominance over the field he was more deserving to win in 09/10 than this season - he was just out of luck in 09/10.
Likewise, with more luck (e.g., not overlapping with Ovechkin's prime, as the previous poster said), Stamkos could have had 4-5 Rockets.
Suppose we use 30% lead over #10 in goals as a watermark (Ovechkin won his last two Rockets with 26% and 24% margin over #10).
Stamkos cleared that watermark 5 times. Bure, Selanne, Bossy did it 4 times. Jagr did it 3 times. Bondra, Kovalchuk, Dionne did it twice.

I don't think Stamkos is a HOF lock yet. But if he continues with expected longevity he should make it quite easily. Not the same as being a lock though.

If he hangs them up tomorrow, he will get in - he will have to wait just as Bure did, but he will get in eventually.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Some people are over thinking this way too much. Dude has 2 rockets, multiple top 10 goal, pt and hart finishes. He is easily a HOFer right now, he has a better resume than 90% of the hall. 1st ballot.

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

Some people are over thinking this way too much. Dude has 2 rockets, multiple top 10 goal, pt and hart finishes. He is easily a HOFer right now, he has a better resume than 90% of the hall. 1st ballot.

My thoughts exactly. Top that off with a PPG career in an era where only 4 (5-6 if you want to count Kucherov, McDavid but I'm more thinking older guard) are at that mark. Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin.

Stamkos has been at least a top 5 forward in the league across his career. He's had down years. So has Ovechkin. And while the points didn't pile up every single season, he's come back and redefined his passing game, while this season bringing his shooting game back on top.

At several points in his career, Stammer was the clear 2nd best forward in the league, behind Crosby or Malkin. In a few of his injury seasons he was tied with Crosby in points and leading in goals when injured.

 

[kmo429]

Tiis is always a dumb question. What if he has some more major injuries and only plays 200 mor egames? At his trajectory he could eb a 600 goal/1300* point guy, but which would make him a sure-fire HOFer.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

At his trajectory he could eb a 600 goal/130 point guy, but which would make him a sure-fire HOFer.

600 goals and 130 points would make him one of the rarest Hall of Famers ever.

 

[kmo429]

600 goals and 130 points would make him one of the rarest Hall of Famers ever.

My bad.

I mean if seconday assists should be half points then goals should be quarter points!

 

[The Macho King]

He's a lock. Depending on when he retires, an easy first ballot as well.

Y'all seriously overrated what is required to get in the Hall. Two Rockets, numerous top 10 point finishes. PPG in a low scoring era (one of like 7 players).

 

[Buf fan in Nash]

Some people are over thinking this way too much. Dude has 2 rockets, multiple top 10 goal, pt and hart finishes. He is easily a HOFer right now, he has a better resume than 90% of the hall. 1st ballot.

This, hes only 29 and should have several more productive seasons under his belt with how much offensive talent is on that team. If his career somehow ended after this season he still gets in.

 

[justafan22]

He's a lock. Depending on when he retires, an easy first ballot as well.

Y'all seriously overrated what is required to get in the Hall. Two Rockets, numerous top 10 point finishes. PPG in a low scoring era (one of like 7 players).

He's not a lock if he retired today, but a decent chance.

If he plays at least 5 more years, he'll be around 550+ goals maybe another rocket, and a lock.

 

[The Macho King]

He's not a lock if he retired today, but a decent chance.

If he plays at least 5 more years, he'll be around 550+ goals maybe another rocket, and a lock.

He's a lock if he never plays another shift. Find one player with a similar resume that isn't in.

I'll wait.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

hes a lock

had a great 18-19 too especially considering he was glued to ondrej "my wrister cant go an inch off the ice" palat for much of the season

 

[Dellstrom]

Two Rockets along with the statistics Zuluss posted make him as close to a lock as you can get.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

since entering the league, among guys with at least 5000 mins in that span, stamkos is 3rd in p1/60. only behind the two pittsburgh centers.

 

[bobholly39]

Many players finishing 2nd and 3rd in a strong year actually had better seasons than someone who finished 1st in a weak year. Ovechkin was a better goal-scorer in 09/10 than he was this season - but in 09/10 he finished 3rd in goals, and this year he got the Richard trophy. Yet, by any reasonable metric of dominance over the field he was more deserving to win in 09/10 than this season - he was just out of luck in 09/10.
Likewise, with more luck (e.g., not overlapping with Ovechkin's prime, as the previous poster said), Stamkos could have had 4-5 Rockets.
Suppose we use 30% lead over #10 in goals as a watermark (Ovechkin won his last two Rockets with 26% and 24% margin over #10).
Stamkos cleared that watermark 5 times. Bure, Selanne, Bossy did it 4 times. Jagr did it 3 times. Bondra, Kovalchuk, Dionne did it twice.



If he hangs them up tomorrow, he will get in - he will have to wait just as Bure did, but he will get in eventually.

I disagree strongly with your last sentence. If he hangs them up tomorrow - it's plausible he makes it in, but it's very possible he does not.

If he retires at age 36-38 and has the usual back half to a career with expected decline? Yes he'll 100% make it.

But to be a lock you have to be able to retire tomorrow and make it. Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin...few others. I wouldn't call Stamkos that. Absolutely not.

Bure is a good comparable - but I feel as though the hype/legend surrounding Bure is greater than Stamkos. So Bure > Stamkos is Stamkos retires tomorrow quite easily.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I disagree strongly with your last sentence. If he hangs them up tomorrow - it's plausible he makes it in, but it's very possible he does not.

If he retires at age 36-38 and has the usual back half to a career with expected decline? Yes he'll 100% make it.

But to be a lock you have to be able to retire tomorrow and make it. Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin...few others. I wouldn't call Stamkos that. Absolutely not.

Bure is a good comparable - but I feel as though the hype/legend surrounding Bure is greater than Stamkos. So Bure > Stamkos is Stamkos retires tomorrow quite easily.

stamkos isnt as far behind ovi career wise as most people think tbh

 

[severian]

If his career ended tomorrow, I’d say he probably gets in after a waiting a few years. Since he’s only 29 and he’s probably going to play 400-500 more games, his career body of work will get him in.

 

[sr edler]

That's no insult.

Top-10 finishes in points
Stamkos 2, 2, 5, 5, 9
Bure 2, 3, 5, 7

Top-10 finishes in goals
Stamkos 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4, 7
Bure 1, 1, 1, 3, 5

Hart voting
Stamkos 2, 6, 8, 11, 11
Bure 3, 9, 12

In fact, Bure is getting all possible credit for his talent and the time he missed when compared with Stamkos. Looking at career numbers, it begins to feel as if Stamkos had a better career.

You can post all the numbers you want but the fact is still that Bure (especially at his VAN peak which means circa 92–95) was amazing at driving the play and creating his own chances from nothing, crashing the net for a goal and often flying into the end board as a result of it. Stylistically Bure and Stamkos are not similar at all, Stamkos is more like Brett Hull.

A better career you say? What in the world has Stamkos ever won except the 2016 World Cup where he had 2 points in 6 games on a veritable All-Star team? Stamkos has been a consistent playoff failure. Bure has one of the best non-Smythe signature playoff runs ever. He had a 16 game long point streak in 94 (second best ever in a single playoffs behind Bryan Trottier's 18 games on the 1981 dynasty Islanders), scored the game winning OT goal in game 7 against Calgary (plus two assists, one of them tying up the game with 2 minutes to go) and then bulldozed Dallas (literally, ask Churla) and Toronto on his way to the SC finals where he helped VAN to game 7 against a heavily favored Presidents' Trophy winning team (not against an expansion team as in last years playoffs).

Bure was also voted best forward (with 9 goals in 6 games) at the first NHL including best-on-best Olympics in 1998 in front of players like Selänne, Jagr, Lindros, Forsberg, Sundin, Sakic, Yzerman, Fedorov, Modano, Roenick, Lafontaine and Steven Stamk... sorry, I mean Brett Hull.

As for Hart voting I can't take it too seriously when Adam Graves gets the most Hart votes of all wingers in the whole league in 1993–94 after having scored 79 points in 84 games on a team with prime Messier, Leetch, Zubov running a clock work power play (Graves didn't outscore any of these guys), et cetera, while Bure had 60 goals/107 points and 37 more points than the next best forward on his team while missing a handful of games. Rangers won the Presidents' Trophy already two years prior (1991–92) with Graves scoring 26 goals and 59 points....

 

[sr edler]

stamkos isnt as far behind ovi career wise as most people think tbh

He absolutely is.