Is Patrick Roy a good coach or was last year a fluke?

[KPower]

Last year the avs had poor advanced stats and were expected to regress this season.

But nobody expected them to be this bad.

Every move he made last year seemed to work, like pulling the goalie in the second
down by 5 and they would come back to win.(relax kids it's an exaggeration.)

I didn't think he deserved the Jack Adams last season.

Good coach or No?

Click to read more...

 

[hisgirlfriday]

I haven't watched enough of the Avs to feel strongly one way or another about how good of a coach Roy is, but I think their problems this year have more to do with their roster changes from last year.

 

[Bee Sheriff]

I guess we'll find out.

 

[Liloldadyo*]

I think he is a good coach. He clearly amped his team up last year. This second year is as much of a learning process for him as it is for his team. Expect them to ramp it up next year.

 

[eklunds source]

Every move he made last year seemed to work, like pulling the goalie in the second down by 5 and they would come back to win.(relax kids it's an exaggeration.)

For what it's worth, coaches in the NHL are far too hesitant to pull the goalie, so good on Roy for going outside the norms and trying something new.

Strategies for pulling the goalie

In summary, the simulations suggest that NHL coaches are too conservative.

...an average team can increase its expected number of points by 1 over the course of an 82-game season by simply pulling the goalie when trailing by any number of goals with less than 3 minutes left.

The gain in terms of expected number of points might turn out to be 2-3 points per season. While that may not seem to be a major improvement at first glance, note that the seeding of 13 [playoff] teams would have been higher than their actual seeding had they obtained an extra 2.1 points during the 2007-2008 season.

In 2010-2011, when teams pulled their goalie, they scored 86 goals and allowed 204.

 

[TOML]

1. Pretty overrated coach last year.
2. Team is tanking a bit this year.
3. Next year they'll be back. With Hanifin?
4. Not worried for them. At all.

 

[SirPaste]

Too early to tell IMO, lots of coaches come in and have a great first year then fade away but like I said too early.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

2. Team is tanking a bit this year.

Do we have to use the word "tanking" to describe every single team that's underperforming?

And if one tanks "a bit", isn't that the worst possible way to tank?

The accusations of tanking around here are way too high (particularly considering that no one here has first-hand information regarding any team motives).

 

[rynryn]

too much credit was given Roy last year. good coach or no it's too early to tell IMO.

 

[deckercky]

Overperformed last year, roster got worse and almost everyone else in the division's roster got stronger, and they're underperforming this year. Perfect storm to plummet in the standings.

 

[beowulf]

Way too early to tell IMO.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Do we have to use the word "tanking" to describe every single team that's underperforming?

And if one tanks "a bit", isn't that the worst possible way to tank?

The accusations of tanking around here are way too high (particularly considering that no one here has first-hand information regarding any team motives).

Underperforming is an interesting word. In the few games I have seen there was a serious lack of effort from many of the Avalanche players.

 

[613Leafer]

The poor possession numbers last year suggest the coaching systems werent as good as advertised.

 

[avsfan09]

They are a young team and I think after last year it got to Roy and the players heads. Roy thought they were ready to compete hence the vets and the team thought winning would be easy. As long as he learns from his mistakes and keeps making positive improvements to the team(he revamped our system recently with good success) than he'll be a good coach.

Much too early to tell though.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Underperforming is an interesting word. In the few games I have seen there was a serious lack of effort from many of the Avalanche players.

And do you think that this is a deliberate tactic dictated by management?

Sometimes, professional athletes just mail it in.

 

[Savardian Spinorama]

A hot goalie is a coach's best friend.

 

[OzzyFan]

If you believe in advanced stats, he's not a good coach. If you don't believe in advanced stats, he's around average at best so far I'd say. Varlamov is/was huge last year and MacKinnon so was MacKinnon with a number of players having career years together. Everything just fell right for them last season. He wasn't nearly as good as he looked last year, probably slightly better than he looks so far, but could be this bad too honestly. Varlamov's injuries and mediocre start don't help either.

 

[Lord Moriarty007]

I don't blame him for the Avs sucking. The team is not playing with any heart like they did last year.

 

[Koized]

Only reason he was concerned good was because of Varlamov. Terrible coach.

 

[cgf]

The avs have struggled even more than they should be struggling this year because MacKinnon, Landeskog, O'Reilly, and now Duchene are all playing well below where they should be. Landy and ROR in particular have been awful this year, while MacK is going through the growing pains of learning to be a top 6 Center in the NHL after spending most of last year either on Landy-Stastny's right wing, or centering a sheltered third line. EJ and Barrie on the other hand are playing even better than last year, John Mitchell was playing even better than last year and cementing himself as a quality third line C, Redmond on the third pairing has been every bit as good as I expected for a third pairing PMD/PP-specialist, Pickard has filled in admirably while Varly's been hurt, and Patrick has managed to get even Stuart to play better than I've seen from him in the past 4 years before he got hurt.

My only gripes with Roy have been how long it took him to switch our defensive system at the start of the season, and his decision to buttbuddy Iginla with Landy-MacK rather than putting tanguay in that spot and having Iginla join ROR-Duchene. Maybe a couple of the call ups, but those aren't a big deal and I even like his decisions if they were made to let our top prospects stay focused on improving their play at a level they are comfortable at while less significant pieces to the long term puzzle dealt with being yanked around.

That said he seems to have a great relationship with our kids to keep them from getting too down on themselves, he's shown a real gift for squeezing the best out of dmen, and the work Allaire and Tourigny have been doing under him has been great stuff, see Pickard's development and our PK.

Only reason he was considered good was because of Varlamov. Terrible coach.

lol

[MOD]

I haven't watched enough of the Avs to feel strongly one way or another about how good of a coach Roy is, but I think their problems this year have more to do with their roster changes from last year.

It's not even the swap of Staz and Iggy, the biggest issue this year has been our best forwards not playing like our best forwards. Tanguay has been without question our best forward this season, and Briere's the only other guy who's having even just a good season, by his standards/expectations.

Underperforming is an interesting word. In the few games I have seen there was a serious lack of effort from many of the Avalanche players.

Our best forwards have been out of form this season, well Duchene was awesome for the first 15 games or so until Landy and MacK were put on his wings for a few games. But I don't think the problem is the effort, I think it's the pressure of expectations, frustration building up, confidence imploding, and the team just not playing as loose as they did last year all while dealing with some growing pains and the rest of the league being more aware of what our players can do. Add in a little sophomore slump for MacK, Varly getting hurt, Stuart getting hurt, the barrage of injuries to our bottom 6, plus I'm starting to suspect Landeskog is hiding an injury based on how much weaker he's been on his skates this year, and the things that are going wrong have just been snowballing to sap whatever confidence the team is able to generate.

 

[ForumNamePending]

As others have pointed out apparently the advanced stats really didn't line up with their record last year and it appears it might be catching up with them this year.

Roy also comes off as a pretty intense fella, maybe I am just buying into myth, but those types, at least according to stereotype, generally get results early and then tend to wear thin and lose 'the room' relatively quickly, especially when things aren't going well.

 

[Avelanche]

Last year it was the players making him look good, this year it is Roy making the players suck yada yada. Poor Holden, maybe him Yakapuv can get away from these coaches keeping them down.

 

[MacBradley]

The Avs are also 3rd in the league with man games lost to injury.

Varly, who is hands down the MVP of their miracle season last year, has been out with a recurring injury half the games.

And then, yes...the scorers aren't scoring. They look frustrated and like they're forcing things out there. I think the awful start against the Wild after losing to them in the playoffs last year probably ate at their confidence. Its not a coincidence that most of the players playing up to over over their expectations are vets (Tanguay, Briere, even Iggy somewhat).

 

[Meeqs]

Roy as a coach is phenomenal, that isnt to blame for this seasons struggles. This seasons struggles are pretty much all on the players and on upper mgmt(Which Roy is responsible for as he is a big part in personnel decisions.).

On Roy:

One of his best strengths is that he doesn't only coach 1 specific system and forces the team to fit to it, he allows the players to have a large say and caters how they play to the teams strengths. On the down side that is also why the team is struggling this season is because the players cant figure out how they want to play as a team.

Another one of his best qualities which goes unnoticed is that he is always positive and sticks with the team. Even with how awful they have been he still stays even keel and only focuses on ways to help the players improve.

He also has an incredible understanding of the game, which can be seen when he changed up the defense early in the season and saw a dramatic increase in the Avs play.

The real problems:
-The first problem is on mgmt. This past offseason they probably felt that all they had to do was add some veteran leadership and the team was set, at the same time not addressing large holes left by the departure of Stastny and they failed to address the needs on defense properly ( granted there wasnt really any solid options outside of Ehrhoff in UFA as the Avs needed a LHD and all UFA Dmen were primarily RHD).

-Many big players have been dreadful. On paper the top 6 should be stacked, however there is no chemistry at all and they just dont work well. RoR has been awful all year and has dragged the Duchene line down with him, however he hasnt played well anywhere else. Gabe started the season hurt but has gotten better since. While Iggy is a great and talented player, he just isnt a good fit for the Avs system. MAckinnon has had an insanely large sophomore slump and is struggling in his first season at center.

-The loss of Stastny left a HUGE hole that wasnt filled for a center that can primarily take defensive zone draws that has created big matchup issues for the Avs. Their bottom 6 doesnt have enough complete players and most players are very 1 dimensional which is an issue.

-Barrie and EJ have been AMAZING, which I cannot stress enough. I am talking Cup winning level of play, however every other Dman is AHL quality with the exception of Hejda(who has played well but is 36 or 37 I believe). This has caused the Avs to have to switch away from man defense which changes the dynamic and the Avs breakout of there own zone has been one of THE biggest problems of the year as they have had 0 transition game. However with that said it is important to note that THE AVS DEFENSIVE PLAY HASNT BEEN A PROBLEM, ITS HAS BEEN THE OFFENSE.

-Avs also have the 3rd highest man games lost to injury, however they havent played well when healthy and many key players have stayed healthy outside of Varly. What you do have to note is that they Avs have had 18 1 goal games and lost 12 of them, so realistically they arent as bad as they seem in the standings, however with how dreadful the offensive play it doesnt look well either.

 

[salsa man]

Hanifin sure would be a good addition to that roster.