Is Ovechkin's 07/08 season among the very best goalscoring campaigns in history?

[daver]

The may be the only thing holding him back from being accepted the consensus "greatest" goalscorer; his peak season is not among the Top 3 or 5 all-time.

Where do you rate his 07/08 season among the best goalscoring seasons ever? IMO, it is Top 10 but not Top 3 or 5.

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[Nadal On Clay]

I personally consider Stamkos 60 goals campaign to be more impressive/better from a goalscoring standpoint given the lead be had over his peers.

What propels OV to be the best goalscorer of all time is his goalscoring consistency.

 

[bobholly39]

Imo it's behind Gretzky's seasons of 92 and 87 goals, behind Lemieux's season of 85 goals and his 2 seasons of 69 goals, and also behind Hull's season of 86 goals.

So - at the absolute most, it can be in argument for 7th best. You also have some of Bobby Hull's seasons, some of Howe's seasons, maybe Rocket's 50 in 50, or even Esposito's 76 goal season. It's somewhere in that group I'd say. Might be forgetting 1 or 2.

So i'd say it's top ~10-15 best goal-scoring season ever.

As for holding him back of being accepted as the 'greatest goal scorer ever' - not at all. If anything, Gretzky's very steep decline in goal-scoring holds him back from "greatest goal scorer ever" moreso than this peak season would hold Ovi back.


Ovi's prime and career is strong enough that he has the strongest argument for greatest goal-scorer.

 

[jigglysquishy]

In my mind, the best "goal-scoring" season in Bobby Hull's 1965-66. He dominated everyone in the league that year in both goals and points.

His 97 points are 24% more than next highest (Mikita and Rousseau at 78)

His 54 goals are 69% more than the next highest (Frank Mahovlich at 32). There were 6 30-goal scorers that year. Getting 54 in that environment is the most dominant single-season goal scoring in the NHL. In comparison, Ovechkin's 65 goals was in a season of 28 30-goal scorers.

Ovechkin has the highest goal-scoring peak of anyone since Mario Lemieux. His three season peak of 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10 is the best healthy three year stretch of any goal-scorer besides the Big Four (and Espo), and the Hulls. If you look at complete play as a player, it's better than anything Phil Esposito or Brett Hull did. Rocket's peak is in the same category as well.

I don't think he peaked as high as Gretzky, Lemieux, or either Hull as a goal-scorer. But he has put together nearly 15 years of goal-scoring dominance. He easily has my "prime" vote for a goal-scorer.

If I had to rank goal-scorers overall, I would put them in tiers of

1) Bobby Hull
2) Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Gordie Howe, Alex Ovechkin
3) Rocket Richard, Brett Hull, Charlie Conacher, Phil Esposito

I don't think Ovechkin>Gretzky is too controversially as a goal-scorer. Gretzky had 3 seasons better than anything Ovechkin did, but Gretzky only really had six truly elite goal-scoring seasons. Ovechkin is something around ten now.

The crown still sits on Bobby Hull's head. Similar length goal-scoring prime, but Hull had the higher peak. If Ovechkin keeps racking up Rockets, I could see the argument. But when you have comparable primes, with differing peaks it's hard to argue against Bobby Hull.

 

[Midnight Judges]

The may be the only thing holding him back from being accepted the consensus "greatest" goalscorer; his peak season is not among the Top 3 or 5 all-time.

^^^You've been corrected on this multiple times, therefore, this is a blatant lie.

Era Adjusted: Greatest NHL goal-scoring seasons of all-time - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Midnight Judges]

I think some of you don't even know you're doing it, and some of you do, but the history revisions on this forum are pretty over the top at times.

Not sure what it's being driven by but I can't help but wonder. Nativism? Nationalism? Whatever "ism" it is, it's quite ugly.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Imo it's behind Gretzky's seasons of 92 and 87 goals, behind Lemieux's season of 85 goals and his 2 seasons of 69 goals, and also behind Hull's season of 86 goals.

So - at the absolute most, it can be in argument for 7th best. You also have some of Bobby Hull's seasons, some of Howe's seasons, maybe Rocket's 50 in 50, or even Esposito's 76 goal season. It's somewhere in that group I'd say. Might be forgetting 1 or 2.

So i'd say it's top ~10-15 best goal-scoring season ever.

As for holding him back of being accepted as the 'greatest goal scorer ever' - not at all. If anything, Gretzky's very steep decline in goal-scoring holds him back from "greatest goal scorer ever" moreso than this peak season would hold Ovi back.


Ovi's prime and career is strong enough that he has the strongest argument for greatest goal-scorer.

Ovechkin's season clearly stands above all others during a two decade stretch. Most of the seasons you listed didn't stand for 1 decade.

Adjusted stats don't back you up. But you knew that, and so you ignore them.

Your agenda is to pimp Crosby and downplay Ovie. Your opinion is indefensible.

 

[Dingo]

refusing to adjust for era is simply embarrassing to read at this point.

Ill admit that Stamkos’s 60 was nearly the same ratio over second place as Ovechkin’s 65, and he also had great seasons surrounding it.

Ovechkin’s 3 yr in a row run is as good as any and comes in an era where it doesnt seem likely to happen again

 

[YippieKaey]

Yeah adjusted for era Ovi´s 65 goals is the second highest ever after Brett Hull´s 90-91 season.

 

[jigglysquishy]

The direct HR adjusted goals has more problems than successes.

Unless you believe that half the elite goal scoring seasons ever are from 1917-1930. That 4 of the top 17 goal scoring seasons ever were all in 1929-30.And that the most popular vote for best goal scorer ever peaked at 45th best season.

 

[Dingo]

The direct HR adjusted goals has more problems than successes.

Unless you believe that half the elite goal scoring seasons ever are from 1917-1930. That 4 of the top 17 goal scoring seasons ever were all in 1929-30.And that the most popular vote for best goal scorer ever peaked at 45th best season.

they were playing an entirely different game, then. yes, you cant just use it at face value, but you cant just go raw, either.


we cant just take league scoring averages, either, as i think that parity plays a huge part in this. playing on a stacked team vs weak expansion teams is not the same as playing in a levelled league. also, a fully integrated league from all available countries is harder, too

 

[JackSlater]

I'm quite high on Ovechkin's 2008 season, though I often don't think of seasons specifically in terms of goal scoring or passing. In terms of goals he smoked some solid if not all time strong competition, and as I'm not particularly high on Backstrom (2008 or later) I give credit for having done it without a noteworthy amount of help. I like that he was able to do it as the player unquestionably carrying the offensive load on his line, which wasn't the case in Stamkos' season for example. There's a group of seasons that are in contention for most impressive in terms of goals and Ovechkin's best belongs right there with them.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I've long desired to "update" VsX for seasons where the math doesn't quite jive with my perception.

Goals in 2007-08 is one of them. Normally, Kovalchuk's 52 goals is the benchmark. But I think him, Ovi, and Iginla all had "better than benchmark seasons". Malkin's 47 goals "should" be the benchmark. He's not quite 7% behind Iginla or above Zetterberg, but I think fits the intent of the 7% rule.

If so, it pushes Ovi to a VsX goals of 1.38. Not at a Bobby Hull level, but far more dominant than the original 1.25 purports.

Alas, I don't have the time to update everything. VsX isn't perfect. Hockey reference adjusted is worse. But neither accurately capture the Bobby Hull vs Ovechkin debate.

 

[Midnight Judges]

refusing to adjust for era is simply embarrassing to read at this point.

Ill admit that Stamkos’s 60 was nearly the same ratio over second place as Ovechkin’s 65, and he also had great seasons surrounding it.

Ovechkin’s 3 yr in a row run is as good as any and comes in an era where it doesnt seem likely to happen again

There is no rational basis to look at seasons in isolation.

Surrounding seasons provide context - particularly in instances where league wide scoring trends were consistent (as is often the case). Whatever second place does in a given year is highly volatile - an unreliable basis. This is why VsX is garbage for 1 year comparisons, and pretty lame overall. It needlessly eliminates the context of surrounding seasons in favor of arbitrary arguments - which are deployed at the convenience of a poster's agenda.

You can look at Ovie's season, 10 years prior and 10 years after, and that provides plenty of context. In that greater context, Ovie's season stacks up far superior to many of the seasons from the Canadian players mentioned in his thread - who for reasons not being admitted, are being favored.

 

[Midnight Judges]

The direct HR adjusted goals has more problems than successes.

Unless you believe that half the elite goal scoring seasons ever are from 1917-1930. That 4 of the top 17 goal scoring seasons ever were all in 1929-30.And that the most popular vote for best goal scorer ever peaked at 45th best season.

I agree hockey reference's adjusted stats aren't all that great prior to 1950 or so.

So what? All the greatest players were after that anyway.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Esposito's 76 goal season gets overlooked.

He broke Hull's record by 18 goals (33% more)

He beat 2nd by 50% (Bucyk with 51)

 

[GlitchMarner]

I think some of you don't even know you're doing it, and some of you do, but the history revisions on this forum are pretty over the top at times.

Not sure what it's being driven by but I can't help but wonder. Nativism? Nationalism? Whatever "ism" it is, it's quite ugly.

I'm sure Daver thinks Crosby has an argument for being a top five or six player all-time (and to be fair, he probably does or will by the time his career is over). Is his peak season even top 20 all-time? Top 30? It doesn't exactly hold him back because he's been consistently elite for ages.

Even if Ovechkin's best goal scoring season is "only" top ten all-time (not that I necessarily agree), that shouldn't disqualify him from having a good argument for being the greatest goal scorer ever.

 

[filinski77]

I personally consider Stamkos 60 goals campaign to be more impressive/better from a goalscoring standpoint given the lead be had over his peers.

What propels OV to be the best goalscorer of all time is his goalscoring consistency.

1) Ovechkin had a higher goal total from a raw perspective, and from an adjusted perspective
2) Ovechkin and Stamkos actually both had relatively the same dominance over their peers, so your point is not true.
3) Ovechkin had less team-help compared to Stamkos
4) You could also argue that Ovechkin had harder competition in his year (Stamkos had peak Malkin who missed GP, a huge down year for Ovi, Gaborik and Neal - Ovechkin had peak Malkin/Kovalchuk/Iginla)

Based on #1 and #2, Ovechkin is ahead (before even considering #3 and #4)

	Goals	% lead			Goals	% lead
Stamkos	60			Ovechkin	65
2nd	50	20%		2nd	52	25%
5th	38	58%		5th	43	51%
10th	36	67%		10th	40	63%
20th	31	94%		20th	32	103%
	TBL points	% lead			WAS points	% lead
Stamkos	97			Ovechkin	112
2nd	74	31%		2nd	69	62%
3rd	65	49%		3rd	56	100%
4th	49	98%		4th	54	107%
5th	48	102%		5th	42	167%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Midnight Judges]

I'm sure Daver thinks Crosby has an argument for being a top five or six player all-time (and to be fair, he probably does or will by the time his career is over). Is his peak season even top 20 all-time? Top 30? It doesn't exactly hold him back because he's been consistently elite for ages.

Even if Ovechkin's best goal scoring season is "only" top ten all-time (not that I necessarily agree), that shouldn't disqualify him from having a good argument for being the greatest goal scorer ever.

It is a statistical fact that Ovie's best goal scoring season adjusts quite well relative to others.

In politics, you try to attack your opponent's strength and turn it into a weakness. That's what Bob Holly and Daver are doing here - politicking. Peak is Ovie's strength, obviously. Unfortunately for them, so is prime and longevity.

 

[Dingo]

somehow, everyone seems to understand this context when talking Crosby’s only two art rosses, with relative-to-history low raw totals.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The direct HR adjusted goals has more problems than successes.

Unless you believe that half the elite goal scoring seasons ever are from 1917-1930. That 4 of the top 17 goal scoring seasons ever were all in 1929-30.And that the most popular vote for best goal scorer ever peaked at 45th best season.

Oh yes, at this point, I don't think anyone serious thinks that adjusting to league average is a good idea. The role of depth players has just changed too much over time.

Compare him to the other top scorers (as you did in your excellent earlier post), not the league average.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I've long desired to "update" VsX for seasons where the math doesn't quite jive with my perception.

Goals in 2007-08 is one of them. Normally, Kovalchuk's 52 goals is the benchmark. But I think him, Ovi, and Iginla all had "better than benchmark seasons". Malkin's 47 goals "should" be the benchmark. He's not quite 7% behind Iginla or above Zetterberg, but I think fits the intent of the 7% rule.

If so, it pushes Ovi to a VsX goals of 1.38. Not at a Bobby Hull level, but far more dominant than the original 1.25 purports.

Alas, I don't have the time to update everything. VsX isn't perfect. Hockey reference adjusted is worse. But neither accurately capture the Bobby Hull vs Ovechkin debate.

VsX was always intended to be a rough formula that really only applies to ranges of seasons.

For looking at an individual result, it's easy enough to look into it in more depth.

 

[filinski77]

In my mind, the best "goal-scoring" season in Bobby Hull's 1965-66. He dominated everyone in the league that year in both goals and points.

His 97 points are 24% more than next highest (Mikita and Rousseau at 78)

His 54 goals are 69% more than the next highest (Frank Mahovlich at 32). There were 6 30-goal scorers that year. Getting 54 in that environment is the most dominant single-season goal scoring in the NHL.

Ovechkin has the highest goal-scoring peak of anyone since Mario Lemieux. His three season peak of 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10 is the best healthy three year stretch of any goal-scorer besides the Big Four (and Espo), and the Hulls. If you look at complete play as a player, it's better than anything Phil Esposito or Brett Hull did. Rocket's peak is in the same category as well.

I don't think he peaked as high as Gretzky, Lemieux, or either Hull as a goal-scorer. But he has put together nearly 15 years of goal-scoring dominance. He easily has my "prime" vote for a goal-scorer.

If I had to rank goal-scorers overall, I would put them in tiers of

1) Bobby Hull
2) Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Gordie Howe, Alex Ovechkin
3) Rocket Richard, Brett Hull, Charlie Conacher, Phil Esposito

I don't think Ovechkin>Gretzky is too controversially as a goal-scorer. Gretzky had 3 seasons better than anything Ovechkin did, but Gretzky only really had six truly elite goal-scoring seasons. Ovechkin is something around ten now.

The crown still sits on Bobby Hull's head. Similar length goal-scoring prime, but Hull had the higher peak. If Ovechkin keeps racking up Rockets, I could see the argument. But when you have comparable primes, with differing peaks it's hard to argue against Bobby Hull.

As far as comparing goal leads and peer dominance, you must consider the fact that Hull's season was in a Canadian-only league. That fact alone very obviously makes it easier to attain a higher goal lead over your peers.

I quickly went and removed non-Canadian players for 07/08, and the primary difference is due to a couple higher-end seasons for places 2-5 in Ovechkin's case. Overall however it's much much closer than you make it out to be.

Hull	54	% lead		Ovechkin	65	% lead
2	32	69%		2	50	30%
3	31	74%		3	43	51%
5	30	80%		5	38	71%
10	28	93%		10	32	103%
20	22	145%		20	27	141%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It's also weird to say he didn't peak as high as Gretzky or Lemieux, considering that one of the links above proved that Ovi's 65 adjusts to better than anything Gretzky or Lemieux did (yes, I understand that adjusting isn't perfect, but not adjusting is miles worse). But given Gretzky's % lead over #2 in his best season, I would tend to agree that for a 1 or 2 year peak-season, I would give you that Gretz's seasons were better - but the gap is not crazy big or anything.

 

[jigglysquishy]

VsX is a way to adjust for goal-scoring by era. And passes the smell test far better than HR's simple GPG/GPG adjustment.

Neither is perfect, but if VsX is a 7/10 (with no better option), HR is maybe a 3/10.

HR's stats claim that Stamkos peaked higher for goals than Gordie Howe, Phil Esposito, or Bobby Hull. Do people seriously think that?

HR's stats claim that Brett Hull peaked a couple tiers above Bobby Hull.

 

[sr edler]

and as I'm not particularly high on Backstrom (2008 or later) I give credit for having done it without a noteworthy amount of help.

Since Ovechkin became a pretty static player beyond 2010 Bäckström (and later also Kuznetsov) been loads of help.