Is Our Best Shot At Winning With McDrai Gone?

[Lacaar]

The Champs got knocked out because they were a much weaker team than they had been. And that probably continues next year with McKinnon's big deal kicking in.

Boston is very likely to take a major step back next year. They probably loose both Bergeron and Krejci and they will have $4.5M in carry-overs on the cap. At $86.5M they will have $9M in cap space with 14 spots filled. Orlov alone probably gets 2/3 of that or more and Swayman might get the rest. So all of sudden their very deep team has lost its top 2 centers, is at the cap with a 16 man roster. I expect Toronto and Tampa to both be weaker.

Looking forward to next year I think it is reasonable to assume that LA might be about the same. Vegas and Colorado are possibly worse. Dallas about the same. Seattle is hard to say. They don't have space to add to what they have and they could easily take a step back.

The one team that may get better that is a serious contender is Carolina.

I still think the Oilers biggest opponent is themselves. Not sure there are personal changes that make any difference. It's the attitude of the team that's the issue. They need to grow up and learn some real gamesmanship. Learn when to provoke another team and when to shut up and go to work. They're terrible at this.. absolutely awful.

This year they came out of the gates like a horse conserving its energy in a race. They didn't pay attention to the details of the game.. especially defensively. Made their goalies (who aren't innocent by any means either) job much harder. They then went super sonic in the second half of the season and burnt themselves out come second round of the playoffs. When things got hard those details disappeared and the first half team came back. They didn't have those instincts to fall back on.

I guess the defensive game just doesn't come naturally to them. So when it's needed they can do it. But not when there's pressure to do it. Game 66 of the year.. no pressure.. lock it down. Game 5 of a playoff series when the other team gets some momentum. They can't do it under pressure.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I don't believe with certainty our best shot is over but looking at the happenings of the past in order to predict the impending, it's definitely challenging to be optimistic for the future.

The outlook of winning a championship is based on faith. The probability of further failures is persuasively rationalistic.

Our prospects of improving enough to reach that next stage and win a Cup is not in a vacuum. It's relative in comparisons to what Las Vegas, Colorado and other franchises do. They seemingly improve their teams with ease while giving up little futures to do so.

I'm not going to vote.

Vegas was an elite #1C and #1D short of being a serious cup contender.

Pietrangelo would only sign with 1 team, and gave St.L zero other options.

Eichel was a MASSIVE MASSIVE gamble that luckily panned out, but the cost was still enormous despite the massive risk.


Those massive massive risks also cost them a playoff berth last year.

 

[SwedishFire]

I still think we're just a few minor pieces away. Last year everyone knew it was Colorado year. Many guys in my pool picked Tampa Colorado to make the finals.

It sucks because this year is wide open but imagine if we have a hellebuyck and a Devon Toews.

A lot of problems in the back end are solved.


I agree entirely. Now is the time to be bold and move nuge when he's got his 100 pts recency bias. Guy will never be able to stat pad like that again on a pp.

They need one more right handed center that has a rough playing style. Our centers are very cute ; Nuge, McDavid , McLeod, even Bjugstad and Ryan are not famous for being though guys - at all. McDavid is the thoughest of em. Draisaitl is the meanest center we have. One more "rough, though, center in top 6 would be great. Thats what i think is missed. And Yamamoto out.

Nuge helps the team to playoff, but in playoff, he shoyld be a 3C max!! He should carrie a secondary scoring line in playoff. Like Kostin Nuge Bjugstad.
And Nurse playing style is a problem. Is Ceci or even VD enough?

 

[ManofSteel55]

I think this was our first legitimate shot at the cup, not the last.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Pietrangelo would only sign with 1 team, and gave St.L zero other options.

where did you hear that he would only sign with Vegas? I don't remember that at all and was canvassing trading Nurse that offseason so we could make a pitch for him.

 

[tfwnogf]

Have a few more chances at least. The team is good but needs to find an extra gear. Playoffs can be hard to predict. Who knew Tkachuk and Bob would go on a tear like that. I don't see Campbell/Skinner doing what he did but McDrai are gamebreakers. All they need is support and adequate goaltending.

I also don't know if McDrai are willing to jump ship as soon as their contracts are up. What teams have a better chance than the Oilers they would want to play with? I think up and comers like Chicago is a possibility for Drai but McDavid could be an Oiler for life. These guys will be able to claim 13-15 million easily which is not easy for any contending team to shell out for. The optimist in me wants to say their bromance is too strong and they will take Crosby-esque discounts to stay together.

For now just have to enjoy the ride and see what happens.

 

[Hemsky4pm2]

I think the Oilers will be in potential Cup Winning territory for the next 5+ years IF:

Draisaitl and McDavid are retained
Drafting is reasonably decent - like TBL's ability to backfill vacancies with homegrown talent
Skinner proves to be a 50th percentile or better goalie

Sports betting odds next season will have the Oilers as one of the top 5 favorites to win the Cup in 2024- especially if Vegas wins the Cup this season.

 

[bucks_oil]

Before I screw off and enjoy my summer, I figured this might be an interesting discussion to have. I figure we blew it for a couple of reasons:

1) All our toughest competition has been eliminated and the path would have been wide opened for us if we got past Vegas. The Avs will be healthy and the Kings are likely going to be upgraded.

2) We need to sign Bouchard and will have to lose some of our depth to make that possible. The roster will most certainly be worse than this year (or at least on paper) because we will have no cap. Unless a massive is made at some point I just don't see how we can win a cup before the contracts of Connor & Leon expire.

Thoughts?

Short answer no.

1) The path to the cup will always be difficult. Vegas was legit this year and was the #1 seed in the west. Not only that, they played games with the cap and added at the deadline with Stone miraculously coming back for the playoffs. I don't understand the narrative that this was our "easy path" year. It makes no sense. Reputational "strength" of Colorado is irrelevant, Vegas were/are the best team in the west this year.

2) The big positives here are that all of our core are under contract and soon Bouchard will be too. We have guys on ELC (Broberg, Holloway) that have been afforded slow development and can contribute in the near term. Most importantly we have dead cap coming off the books AND are finally out of LTIR. Every dollar we save by icing a team under the cap is $3-4 dollars available to spend at the deadline. This is the first year we can make a meaningful addition at the deadline without sending talent and salary out the door. Plus our "deadline add" last season just happens to be a #2 defenseman that we still have under contract for 3 years (and it only cost us a 1st).

This year (actually this and next) were always going to be our best chances to pull together a championship roster.

Holland just needs to be patient this off season and focus on trades rather than half-measure UFAs. We need to start the season $2-3M under the cap which is easily accomplished if we trade out 2 to 3 of our $3M guys who can be replaced internally with $1M salaries.

 

[Lacaar]

where did you hear that he would only sign with Vegas? I don't remember that at all and was canvassing trading Nurse that offseason so we could make a pitch for him.

I'd be shocked if Pietrangelo would have considered Edmonton. Players like him just never appear to have much interest in returning to Canada. Not after already wining. I doubt any Canadian franchise was considered beyond increasing the bidding.

Vegas is very fortunate in that players line up in droves to play there... regardless of how others are treated. Let's face it a Canadian franchise would have a stigma put on them if they treated coaches and players that don't perform like Vegas does. Like they lose the cup final. Tell half the team to f*** off. and 12 more Free agents would be drooling to sign there. And not a single player would add them to their NTC/NMC. It's a bigger advantage then most think imo.

Canada isn't as competitive in general because we lose access to a not so insignificant amount of the player base.. plain and simple.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

where did you hear that he would only sign with Vegas? I don't remember that at all and was canvassing trading Nurse that offseason so we could make a pitch for him.

Ahh

I went off of a bad source on that one.


But he was in the situation Tkachuk. A full NTC with 1 more year on his contract and could dictate to which team he would re-sign with.

 

[DrDrai]

Best chance at winning the draft lottery.

 

[McFlash97]

Our chances for a cup without McDrai is "0". Hopeless. We aint winning a cup without them in our lifetime. Book it. Our chance to win it is with them and now. I want to see a cup in my lifetime. Im sure we all do. To have two players like this comes around once a century. Go all in all the time every season.

 

[McShogun99]

I think this was our first legitimate shot at the cup, not the last.

I think so. Last year everyone knew that Colorado was going to win. I was just happy we got to the final 4. The previous years we had to many holes in the roster. This year was our most complete team since 2016-17 but with more experience. I'd like to believe we can win it in the next few years.

 

[OddManRush]

I’d say yes.

This season was easily the best roster of the McDrai era and we still only got 6 of the 16 required wins to win the Cup. Hard to imagine an even better lineup next year. Not only that, going through Vegas and LA in the first two rounds of the playoffs will be incredibly tough year over year.

The Kings had at us at the brink of elimination last year and were a Korpisalo save on Kane late in game 4 away from going up 3-1 this year.

Not even going to touch on the Knights as they are a much better team than us. Man, the Oilers have me so jaded, lol. Incredible to think that the closest this team has got to to the Cup in the McDrai era is halfway (8 playoff wins in 2022).

 

[Broberg Speed]

This must be a real horrorshow film if you're so keen on my viddying it.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Crying over what happened doesn't fix anything.
Letting Woodcroft pilot this once more shouldn't be tolerated.

 

[russ99]

Not very concerned about McDavid and Draisiatl leaving.

What teams can handle their salaries now much less increases under the cap with a competitive team? They can't really be traded, either. Even with multiple teams eating cap, not sure this can happen legally under the cap.

They're not leaving to go to bottom feeders, and it's easiest to give them the increases they need here by moving some cap out.

 

[NegativeNelly]

We need an established goalie. Not one that might bounce back or a rookie trying to figure things out. Colorado couldn't get over the hump and then Patrick Roy arrived. We are in the same scenario as Colorado was back then. Pinning our hopes on Skinner and/or Campbell is a losing bet.

 

[McShogun99]

I’d rather have McDrai for 8 more years taking up 50% of the cap then a team of castoffs that couldn’t get a contract anywhere else so they picked Edmonton as their last choice. This was the Oiler between 1993 to 2015.

 

[BlackDogg]

Woodcrofts play-off performance was certainly not a good sign.