Is Nylander a Power Play specialist?

Walshy7

Registered User
Sep 18, 2016
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Toronto
ah 666 and his vendetta against Nylander is back. PP points, as we all know only count for half compared to regular points and you cant win the game if you score a PP goal
 

Mess

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Feb 27, 2002
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They do when an agenda is trying to be pushed.

They count the same, but 5v5 production is more reliable, because PP time/opportunities are not consistent and depend on Refs.

There are 60 minutes of 5v5 in a game except for specialty time (penalties called) but that is not consistent nor reliable. What happens if a Ref doesn't call any penalties in a game, and thus impact PP points by players that are most productive when a man up?

So while PP points are great, even strength points are more dependable in that regard and therefore ideally ES > PP.

Matthews scoring 32 ES goals (only 8 PP) makes him a more effective than a player that relies more heavily on PP time to be productive. Naz scored 12 of his 32 goals on the PP last year so that leaves 20 at ES.
 
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Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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No, what you see is what happens when Nylander and Matthews help generate Hyman one of the highest danger chances 5 on 5 in the league and he only shoots 4% 5 on 5. Nylander'(Matthews too but specifically Nylander's) on ice sh% was in the toilet, despite generate a lot of high danger chances.

Don't get me wrong he's great on the PP too, but that likely gets slightly worse next year while his 5 on 5 production grows exponentially.
 

lifelonghockeyfan

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Dec 18, 2015
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So, the underlining thought is that Nylander isn't really that good a player is because he gets so many points on the PP.

Who are the first two players on the list?....Backstrom and Hedman. Gee, they must be worse players than Nylander.
 

biotk

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Jan 3, 2017
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Nylander and Matthews combined for no PP points in the playoffs. Are Nylander and Matthews regular season specialists??
 

LeafingTheWay

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May 31, 2014
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No.

- His oish% at even-strength was unlucky 1st half of the season --> thus less points overall at even-strength.
- He lead the team in even-strength points 2nd half of the season.
- Expect his PP totals to go down a bit and even-strength point totals to sky-rocket.
 

oooooooooohCanada

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Jan 14, 2017
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Nylander October-January:
48 games
10 goals - 5 on the PP
22 assists - 10 on the PP
31 points - 15 of on the PP (48%)
0.64 points per game (53 / 82 games)

Nylander February-April + playoffs
39 games
13 goals - 4 on the PP
20 assists - 7 on the PP
34 points - 11 on the PP (35%)
0.87 points per game (71.4 / 82 games)
 
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slozo

Registered User
Aug 28, 2011
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Newmarket, ON
Someone posted this the other day:

ljm9g0ti3egz.png


At first glance it looks pretty impressive but what do things look like if we don't count the power play?

To make a long story short of the top 50 scorers in the league Nylander is 3rd in power play scoring per minute but 42nd in even strength scoring per minute.

If we divide the pp rate by the even strength rate Nylander is the 3rd best power play specialist in the league which isn't really a good thing.

Sorry, you lost me at . . . being 3rd best in the league at power play points per minute in the league is a BAD thing. As a rookie.

Nylander has immense skill, and Babcock sheltered him in some ways, let him out in others. If Nylander worst case scenario develops into a power play specialist winger that is top three in the league at ppp's and getting 70+ pts a year . . . I'm very happy.

But that does seem like the worst case scenario, seeing as he's already in the top 50 players in the entire league at even strength points (albeit playing with Matthews , which obviously helps). I really fail to see the downside here . . .
 

slozo

Registered User
Aug 28, 2011
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730
Newmarket, ON
Nylander October-January:
48 games
10 goals - 5 on the PP
22 assists - 10 on the PP
31 points - 15 of on the PP (48%)
0.64 points per game (53 / 82 games)

Nylander February-April + playoffs
39 games
13 goals - 4 on the PP
20 assists - 7 on the PP
34 points - 11 on the PP (35%)
0.87 points per game (71.4 / 82 games)

Now there's an interesting statistical analysis . . . wow.
Pretty crazy learning curve, in the correct direction.

Honestly, the kid has the ability to put up numbers like his other two compatriots . . . we really do have an impressive three-headed hydra in the making.
 

Raym11

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Oct 6, 2009
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Having someone as good on the PP as Nylander is important. All those powerplays that get squandered can shape seasons
 

4thline

Registered User
Jul 18, 2014
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Waterloo
Nylander as a PP specialist as a forward is much like a neurosurgeon as a specialist as a Doctor. Fine as a general practitioner, but he can do things others in the field can't.

Great new light to see Willy in, thanks OP! :D
 

666

Registered User
Jun 27, 2005
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So the chart showed Willie had more PP points than Crosby despite Crosby had played more than 100PP mind. That's pretty good

Can I turn this into a Kessel thread? :sarcasm:

Just 4 less points in 100 less minutes. He easily replaces Kessel. :laugh:

As to the question, not basing this on anything but my old eye test, but yes I think he will be our power play specialist in that I think his game changing abilities benefit with more room. Not selling his Even strength play short, but his shot is deadly from anywhere and his play making, skating explode with the extra room.

Give him more ice time on the PP. but who do you take it away from?

They count the same, but 5v5 production is more reliable, because PP time/opportunities are not consistent and depend on Refs.

There are 60 minutes of 5v5 in a game except for specialty time (penalties called) but that is not consistent nor reliable. What happens if a Ref doesn't call any penalties in a game, and thus impact PP points by players that are most productive when a man up?

So while PP points are great, even strength points are more dependable in that regard and therefore ideally ES > PP.

Matthews scoring 32 ES goals (only 8 PP) makes him a more effective than a player that relies more heavily on PP time to be productive. Naz scored 12 of his 32 goals on the PP last year so that leaves 20 at ES.

I try to stay away from numbers as it confuses a lot of people around here but Mess gets it.

The reality is that Nylander scores at a RATE of 4.3 times on the PP vs even strength, that's not a good thing. Here are some other notables (unfortunately we need numbers).

Nylander 4.3
Kessel 3.0
Draisitl 2.9
Matthews 2.7
Kadri 2.5
Ovetchkin 2.4
McDavid 2.1
Malkin 1.9
Crosby 1.7
Laine 1.6

I hope that you can all see that the great forwards can score any time while some others appear to excel only on the power play.
 

billius

Registered User
Aug 19, 2017
13
0
Niagara
Hi guys, I'm the one that created that chart a couple days ago because I was wondering how Willie ranked on the PP.

Right now I see 666 raises an interesting point about Willie's PP/EV points ratio, I would just say that my eye test and Nylander's 5x5 possession stats point in the direction of him developing at even strength as well but time will tell. (Anyone who saw him play in the World Cup knows what I mean. :laugh:)

BTW, I just joined HF Boards TODAY, looking forward to getting to know everyone.
 

biotk

Registered User
Jan 3, 2017
7,091
5,520
Buffalo
The reality is that Nylander scores at a RATE of 4.3 times on the PP vs even strength, that's not a good thing. Here are some other notables (unfortunately we need numbers).

I think that it is simply an abuse of statistics using small sample sizes. Nylander produced well on the PP, but didn't get a lot of minutes and that can easily skew things in one direction or the other.

But just because he produced exceptionally well on the PP during a small number of minutes doesn't mean that he didn't produce well at ES:

Pts/60 ES
Nylander 1.92
Eichel (year 1) 1.66
Eichel (year 2) 1.94

Quick! Someone call 911! We have a real emergency!
 

dominicmoore19

Registered User
Jun 8, 2010
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59
All I got from this is that Willy is a top 3 player on the powerplay, elite at 5on5 and Kadri needs to keep drawing penalties.
 

4thline

Registered User
Jul 18, 2014
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Waterloo
I try to stay away from numbers as it confuses a lot of people around here but Mess gets it.

Absolutely hilarious considering the bastardized monstrosity of an argument that followed.
 
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Moncherry

Registered User
Feb 5, 2010
5,845
1,055
The **** is with this guy and his blind hatred of Nylander? He doesn't even get that he's presenting stats that harm his own pathetic agenda. :laugh:

Can't wait for his next thread, "Why Nylander belongs in the AHL".
 

TorMapleJays

Registered User
Jun 24, 2012
3,627
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The **** is with this guy and his blind hatred of Nylander? He doesn't even get that he's presenting stats that harm his own pathetic agenda. :laugh:

Can't wait for his next thread, "Why Nylander belongs in the AHL".

Why nylander only scores 5 v 5 or on the p.p. his underlying numbers on the p.k. are awful. Should look to trade him for hanzel
 

billius

Registered User
Aug 19, 2017
13
0
Niagara
About Willie's ES play:

He ranked 5th among rookies in points at ES with 35.
Possession: His CF% was 53.7% (PuckIQ) which led the regular team forwards. He was also +2.2 adjusted for QoC and QoT.

Thought I would zoom in because Corsi stats can be quirky unless controlled. So I looked at only close game situations (within 1 goal), ES TOI >700 minutes, and looked at quality shots. Controlling for those, when Willie was on the ice, his side generated 12.8 "High Danger" shot attempts per 60 minutes. That ranks him 24th in the NHL among forwards on that stat.

(Obviously playing with Matthews helps but he played a big chunk of the season on a shut down line too. His OZ FO starts were 54% but many ahead of him were higher on that stat too.)
 
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Daisy Jane

everything is gonna be okay!
Jul 2, 2009
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so being third best in the powerplay is not a good thing, because he produces 42nd on even strength?

so. okay - if we're going to work with just that statement. just a few things

1: is the NHL going to start awarding wins to teams who don't produce on the powerplay? because then I can see a problem.

2: do you only get 1/2 a goal if you score on the powerplay? because then again I can see a problem, because Nylander can't compensate.

but if the NHL is going to continue to recognize the value of a PP goal as 1, and victories garnered from a PP as 1, then there isn't a problem that Nylander can thrive in a situation that when short handed he can take advantage of the time and space, and let the Leafs win.


as that's the point.
 

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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Leafs Home Board
A player that relies too heavily on PP production could see their points from year to year fluctuate more than a ES 5v5 productive player.

In Willie's case 28 of his 61 points came on the PP in 2016-17 & if PP opportunities decrease (since they're not guaranteed), then to maintain last years pace he will have to compensate by increasing his ES 5v5 time accordingly.

Ideally he continues to score at a high rate on the PP keeping special teams firing on all cylinders converting those chances and in turn also becomes more dangerous at ES at the same time.
 

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