Is Mark Jankowski the most unlucky player in the last few seasons?

After scoring 32 points last season, Calgary Flames centre Mark Jankowski has scored zero points in 27 games so far this season. That sucks for him, but plenty of players have 0 points so far.

However, he also has not been on the ice for a single goal his team has scored all season. Cristoffer Ehn of the Red Wings is the only other player in the league to play over 150 minutes without getting to celebrate a goal.

Now this all sounds like he just sucks. But wait...

Jankowski also has an expected goals for rate of 55.8% - good enough to be at the 86th percentile in the entire league. That's especially impressive on the Flames - Jankowski's relative xGF% is 90th percentile. It's expected that Jankowski should have been on the ice for about 8 goals for this season, not zero.

Why? Because Jankowski has a PDO of 87, the lowest in the league. When he's on the ice, his goalies stop only 87% of the shots they face (CGY average is 91%), and obviously his teammates score on 0% of their shots (CGY average is 6%).

To summarize:

Mark Jankowski

• 0G, 0A, 0P in 27 games
• 2.3 expected goals (0 actual)
• 55.8 xGF% (0% actual)
• 7.2% xGF relative (-48% actual)
• 8 on-ice expected goals (0 actual)
• 87 PDO

 

He's bad. Last season was an aberration for him with all the shorthanded points

 

And of course we're not allowed to interpret this as saying something about the type of chances he allows vs. generates.

 

He's definitely better than 0 points. I think he'll bounce back.

 

I mean, you're allowed to interpret it that way. Based on xGF stats the chances he generates are quite a bit more dangerous than the ones he allows, but you are perfectly entitled to say the opposite.

These are the chances he "generates" (is on the ice for). Not very dangerous, you're right.

These are the chances he gives up. Almost nothing dangerous - that slot is a no-go zone when he's out there.

 

Based on location only, and ignoring all other factors.

Janko has definitely been unlucky offensively this year. Even playing below his ability, there have been enough quality chances that he's unlucky to not have a point. But defensively, he has been worse than in past seasons, and the lower goalie stats with him on the ice is unsurprising.

 

Gotta' be good to be lucky.

 

xGF numbers also take into account stuff like whether chances are rebounds or if they seem to be on the rush. But even if it is just location, his defensive impact on location is so extreme that I find it hard to believe those chances from far out are incredibly dangerous.

 

Almost like he's not a great hockey player.

 

Who cares. He's soft and lazy.

 

It's becoming a bit of a running joke.

He's had so many chances to score and he just can't put the puck in the net.

 

I'd say anyone who's had to play with Jankowski is the unluckiest player.

 

I know right. If Lucic and Rieder can't get you zooming offensively......no one can.

 

His shot makes Backlunds shot look like Ovie in the slot one timing it.

Chances to score means crap when you shoot like a little boy.

 

This looks like severe weather radar.

 

5 years from now people will look back at his draft year and he will be the one they remember

 

I mean... 17 goals last season.

 

Best player in his draft

 

He's definitely played even worse than these stats suggest. Doesn't deserve a point he is beyond awful and not an NHL player.

 

Anyone who has watched the Flames knows Janko has been the worst of any regular Flames forward. Unlucky to not be on the ice even for a goal? 100% true. Like the rest of the team, he's definitely been better under Ward though.

 

One of the Softest big man you can find in the history of the NHL.

Even if he scores a few goals, I dont like him. There is no compete in that boy.

 

Could he be the most unlucky player of his draft year?

As @Dube Dube Doo so eloquently put it, he couldn't score in a woman's prison with a fistful of pardons.

 

The whole team is unlucky. Shooting percentages are way down and every players point production is suffering.

The deal with Jankowski is that he is huge and has talent. The Flames were hoping he'd respond to their development the way Backlund did. However, Jankowski just can't put it together. His hockey iq looks low and although I'd say there is effort, there's no physical presence and energy. It's like watching a ghost play this year. The whole play just seems to move through him.

 

I mean, you can, but his PDO is far enough from 100 that you pretty much have to accept that this is mostly being driven by luck, random variance, or other factors outside of his control.

His PDO is 870. That means his combined shooting percentage and save percentage is 13% below league average.

There is not one skater in the NHL whose impact on the type of chances they allow vs. the type of chances they generate is large enough that they can reduce or increase their combine shooting percentage and save percentage by even 6.5%. (Or even close, really, but let's use 6.5% as a baseline.) Because Jankowski's individual impact on his PDO does not even approach half of the distance from average, we have to conclude that more than half of the distance from average is being driven mostly by factors out of his control.

 

just to anticipate the response you're gonna get:

nuh uh