Is Kerfoot Good Defensively?

[Gatorbait19]

They still have Reilly, Dermott, Muzzin, and Ceci to do P.K..

While those guys all played some PK last year, there were reasons they didn’t play more.

While Hainsey and Zaitsev weren’t world beaters, it’s not easy replacing 6 mins of PK time a game, particularly since Barrie doesn’t play PK.

 

[Sea Eagles]

Stazz as everyone knows was my favorite Av. Yeah, even before Sakic, Forsberg, Blake, Foote, Roy. But Kerfoot held a spot in my heart. Why? Not sure, I just loved the player more than I generally do. Not sure why he was much maligned here. 2 40+ point seasons, in his 1st 2 seasons. What more do people want? Apart from the top end players, not many do that.

Guy had wheels. Guy had great hands, and could pass on a dime. Okay, he could have shot more, but he will. Damn Toronto for getting a steal. In fact, he'd be a perfect right winger for a goal scoring and shooting Kadri funnily enough.

Defensively, I'd say he was good, to strong.

Come home Kerfy one day.

 

[Gatorbait19]

You can go far with an average penalty kill, you can't go far with a below-average to average powerplay. Not that Barrie is amazing on the PP either, but he's also entering a unique situation where Toronto definitely have weapons to help Barrie with the man-advantage as well.

While it’s possible to get by with a below average PK, TOR had a below average PK and their moves on exacerbate that.

So while the addition of Barrie will improve their 8th best (regular season) PP in the league, that wasn’t their issue. The Leafs issue really was the 7 PP goals out of 16 opportunities they gave up in the playoffs. Barrie’s not going to help with that.

 

[Gatorbait19]

That's fine if I have to be the house contrarian on this one. It wouldn't be the first time.



It is, and theirs wasn't that good to begin with. They're going to have to radically reshape how they do things...and with their current coach I have my doubts.

Overall, I don't love everything Dubas did from a Leafs fan standpoint. But they addressed their biggest need as the Avs addressed theirs--they finally have a dynamic puckmoving RHD who works well on the power play. But overall I'd say their defensive prowess took a hit with the departures of Kadri, Brown, and yes, even Gardiner. Add to that the facts that Hyman and Dermott won't be ready for the start of the season, Barrie and Andersen are notoriously slow starters, and the possibility that Marner won't be signed until late, and you have a Toronto team that may faceplant the first 10-15 games of the season. They also opted for a veteran playmaker to anchor their 4th line instead of a more steady defensive presence like Boyle, and last I checked both Harpur and Ceci were pretty bad defensively. I think the Leafs will be fine, but there's definitely reason for concern that they won't exactly come storming out the gate.

Kerf should be fine in a complementary/utility role. He's projected to be on a line with Moore and Kapanen and I think that line will be very solid defensively, though probably not that great in terms of production...but that's okay. I really don't know which forwards Babs likes to use on the PK, so I have no idea if Kerf will be on one of those units but we'll see.

I agree that the leafs addressed their needs and did a decent job plugging their holes... but only on paper.

As you said, their defensive capabilities took a real hit. For a team whose biggest issue was defense and had few offensive problems, Dubas’ moves don’t get them any closer to where they want to be.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Stazz as everyone knows was my favorite Av. Yeah, even before Sakic, Forsberg, Blake, Foote, Roy. But Kerfoot held a spot in my heart. Why? Not sure, I just loved the player more than I generally do. Not sure why he was much maligned here. 2 40+ point seasons, in his 1st 2 seasons. What more do people want? Apart from the top end players, not many do that.

Guy had wheels. Guy had great hands, and could pass on a dime. Okay, he could have shot more, but he will. Damn Toronto for getting a steal. In fact, he'd be a perfect right winger for a goal scoring and shooting Kadri funnily enough.

Defensively, I'd say he was good, to strong.

Come home Kerfy one day.

Love you but Kerfoot is not strong at anything least of all defense. Passable, yes. Would I have him out there to kill a penalty late in a game? No. Would I have him out there late to defend a lead? Hell no. You put strong defensive players or meat shields out in both those situations. Kerfoot doesn't check either of those boxes.

 

[The Kingslayer]

I agree that the leafs addressed their needs and did a decent job plugging their holes... but only on paper.

As you said, their defensive capabilities took a real hit. For a team whose biggest issue was defense and had few offensive problems, Dubas’ moves don’t get them any closer to where they want to be.

Leafs are gonna score their way out of trouble.

 

[Bender]

His defense is meh. Middle of the road at best. Kind of similar to Barrie, actually.

I don't know the exact numbers, but I surely don't recall him killing many penalties out there. Kind of similar to Barrie, actually.

In the end, Toronto upped their offensive capabilities with that trade, not their defense. The exact reverse of what Colorado did.

Ever wonder why you're the only Avs fan who thought Kerfoot was good defensively? That's because you're wrong.

He isn't good, he's extremely limited by his lack of size and never found a way around it unlike many other smaller players in the NHL. Physically stronger players do whatever they want with him at both sides of the ice.

I'm going to echo these sentiments here. We just finished watching 82 games + playoffs of Kerfoot - how many times does anyone remember "oh what a great defensive play by Kerfoot there" or "wow, what a great strip of the puck" or "lucky, Kerfoot was there or that would have been a sure-goal"??? I cannot remember one single time.

I'm not saying he's terrible defensively, I'm just saying that's not the role he was playing on the Avs. If you put that guy at center on a 3rd line and tell him that playing a sound defensive game is now his only focus, will he be able to fill that role?? I don't know the answer to that but based on what we've all seen over the past 2 years - the answer would have to be a resounding 'no'. It's not impossible though. I remember Yanic Perreault being strictly an offensive player coming out of junior and he adapted his role significantly.

I wish him the best but it kind of sucks that this is what the expectations seem to be for him. It's like no one has bothered to watch him play and they're going by what someone told them. (kind of like the Jeff Finger situation all over again lol)

 

[Pokecheque]

I agree that the leafs addressed their needs and did a decent job plugging their holes... but only on paper.

As you said, their defensive capabilities took a real hit. For a team whose biggest issue was defense and had few offensive problems, Dubas’ moves don’t get them any closer to where they want to be.

I believe this will be the final year of Babcock as head coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Dubas is doing everything he can to muster up one last run under the current core before some real changes take place. I imagine they will lose at least one of Muzzin/Barrie this offseason, but that might be okay since they have some promising blueline prospects almost ready to make the jump. I can't imagine Cody Ceci will be playing a major role, if a role at all, in Toronto when all the dust settles. Babs will get tired of his act very quickly, though I imagine he'll treat Harpur like Roman Polak 2.0.

For all the retooling Toronto has done, I think it'll once again come down to the goaltending. The Great Dane puts up some very impressive regular season numbers but he has yet to really take the postseason monkey of his back.

 

[henchman21]

Kerfoot isn't a liability defensively, but he isn't good either. This is a case where stats are not telling the full story. Leaf fans will realize this 15 games into the season.

 

[Pokecheque]

Kerfoot isn't a liability defensively, but he isn't good either. This is a case where stats are not telling the full story. Leaf fans will realize this 15 games into the season.

One, that's a ridiculously small sample size, and two, I just detailed the reasons why I think the Leafs might have a very poor start, none of which has to do with Kerfoot. I hope all the haters check in again near the midpoint and end of the season before pointing and laughing.

 

[henchman21]

One, that's a ridiculously small sample size, and two, I just detailed the reasons why I think the Leafs might have a very poor start, none of which has to do with Kerfoot. I hope all the haters check in again near the midpoint and end of the season before pointing and laughing.

What I mean by 15 games is they will have 5 games where they say he his great, 5 games where excuses get made, 5 games of denial.... then acceptance. It is a bit of a TIC statement, but it will be realized he isn't good defensively.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

If the charts say he is, he must be.

I certainly do not go along with what the Leafs' fans are blowing up people's ass with regard to Kerfoot but as I said before I do not think he is as bad as people here make it out to be. He is not that great defensively but I'd say he is passable. However I would caution people disregarding charts about a player when the same people use charts to argue about how good another player is. Some of those people being very trusted posters I might add. This is not directed at you specifically as I have no idea how you stood on the Barrie charts for example. I know people will come back at me with the "eye test" argument but I'm just arguing the use of or the rejection of charts to help someone's argument.

 

[Pokecheque]

If Moore and Kapanen do enough to create turnovers and dish it to Kerf to skate it out of the zone then that line will thrive. I just wonder how much actual finish it has.

I also think at some point some major shuffling will have to take place because you know Auston Matthews will get hurt at some point, which may necessitate them moving Nylander to center. I could see Kerf moving up to wing in that instance, but maybe not.

 

[Selzoons]

Kerfoot does drive possession (not outstandingly, but well) because he's a pretty smart player, which is valuable defensively.

He struggles at actually defending because he's weak and loses board battles. At 25, there's not too much hope for improvement.

I think the positives balance out the negatives. His overall defensive impact at even strength is slightly negative and I think the stats bear that out. However, he can't PK.

His offense at even strength is poor, even if he's a positive on the power play. Overall, a net negative at even strength.

The result is a player who is decent overall but not actually useful to a contending team unless he lands in the perfect spot.

 

[Iceberg]

Someone at The Athletic labled Kerfoot as a defensive center. That is so very wrong.

 

[ASmileyFace]

Ever since he was traded to Toronto, all I've been hearing from Toronto fans and media is that Kerfoot is a 200 foot center, an elite defensive center, even a potential Selke candidate. This appears to be based not on actually watching him play, but on statistical analysis of his play.

Here's an example: Analyzing the Toronto Maple Leafs New Third Line Centre

Now, I don't have time to really delve into this, but my question to you is this?

Am I crazy? Has Kerfoot really been a great defensive player all along? If not, why is he scoring so high on "defensive" stats?

I'm not making this thread to bash Kerfoot. I'm making it because I'm genuinely a bit mystified by the monolithic opinion I'm seeing about Kerfoot from Leafs fans.

This article

Holy shit. Leafs fans will do anything to make their players seem like the next coming of christ. Good luck in Toronto Kerfy.

 

[MarkT]

Okay thanks for all the answer guys. So it's not just me. What I'm curious about is what exactly is driving these statistics that show him to be good defensively. It's not even just one source either. I've seen multiple sources saying the same things - that his defense is at elite levels. I used to consider myself an advanced stats guy, but now that the stats community has moved to charts based on numbers the public has no access to, I've given up on it for the most part.

My suspicion is that a lot of these stats guys are going for a model that allows that to determine a players overall value based on stats alone. I know that Dom Luszczyszyn appears to be attempting that. I think EvolvingWild are doing the same. Both are combining a bunch of stats together to create a kind of super stat that tells you everything about a certain part of a player's game. Luszczyszyn's (what a name!) chart literally lists "Defense" as a stat.

So my thinking is that Kerfoot is a bit of a canary in the coal mine for these statistical models. I suspect these models are overvaluing certain stats and undervaluing others.

Also, Leafs fandom as a whole (and a bunch of hockey writers) seems to not realize that hockey is not baseball and that there will never be a way to judge a player's ability purely by stats. Where's the stat for ability to cover a guy so he doesn't receive passes. Where's the stat for body positioning that prevents a player from attempting a shot? Where's the stats for using your body to pin a guy against the boards so he loses possession of the puck? Where's the stat for blocked shots that would have otherwise been goals? I have yet to see a single stat that actually measures what most of us would call actual defensive ability. The best I've seen is zone entry stats, but even those don't take into account if player actively avoid trying to enter the zone when you're at or near the blue line.

 

[Pokecheque]

Hopefully this is the last post I have on this subject for a while.

I think it's a bit reductive to try and define good defensive play in black-and-white terms. Most people look at guys who block shots, throw checks, and find other ways to be useful away from the puck, and obviously players who cause turnovers either by an active stick or using their body. And FTR I'm not about to discount those factors, they're all important, even shot blocking.

But I think there's more to it than that. There's those forwards who work hard down low, assist the defense in battles for the puck, and are very adept at puck retrieval. I'm listening to a podcast now featuring Rachel Doerrie and Ian "Graph" Tulloch and both of them looooooove the moves the Avs made. She's very emphatic about the puck retrieval skills that Joonas Donskoi has. I'd argue Alex Kerfoot also has very good puck retrieval skills, which is a big reason behind those amazing zone exit numbers. He can get to loose pucks and skate them out of danger, but he also works hard to get to those pucks. That, to me, is a vital trait to have, especially when Colorado simply didn't have a lot of guys who could do that. Surely some of you see the logic in a big guy like Z knocking someone off the puck, and a guy like Kerf taking the resulting turnover and skating it out. Not everyone can do that.

I also absolutely think that those of you who think Kerf is "soft" are out to lunch. He's not. He was more than willing to skate into the dirty areas along the boards and in front of the net and battle for pucks. He may not have had the size to knock people around but I don't think that is the end-all-be-all of a good defensive player.

So I'll conclude with this: Alex Kerfoot is a very good defensive forward. Not elite, but very good. His offense is decent, and he provided an invaluable asset by being a guy who could assist the defense (especially guys like EJ and Z who can get stuck in their own zone) and retrieve pucks to skate them out of trouble. They needed that because they did not have the depth on the back end or up front. Now they do, and arguably they may have a better version of Kerfoot in Joonas Donskoi who is big, fast, more experienced, and also drives play and is very good defensively. He too is very good at puck retrieval and is able to skate it out of the zone, though he is not quite as good in that one specific trait as Kerfoot (at least last time I checked). Regardless, the Avs have acquired the depth and puckmoving ability that should allow them to improve defensively and make themselves an even more formidable offensive force. Kerf was a very good stopgap measure that shouldn't be needed any longer. I think he'll do well in Toronto.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Hopefully this is the last post I have on this subject for a while.

I think it's a bit reductive to try and define good defensive play in black-and-white terms. Most people look at guys who block shots, throw checks, and find other ways to be useful away from the puck, and obviously players who cause turnovers either by an active stick or using their body. And FTR I'm not about to discount those factors, they're all important, even shot blocking.

But I think there's more to it than that. There's those forwards who work hard down low, assist the defense in battles for the puck, and are very adept at puck retrieval. I'm listening to a podcast now featuring Rachel Doerrie and Ian "Graph" Tulloch and both of them looooooove the moves the Avs made. She's very emphatic about the puck retrieval skills that Joonas Donskoi has. I'd argue Alex Kerfoot also has very good puck retrieval skills, which is a big reason behind those amazing zone exit numbers. He can get to loose pucks and skate them out of danger, but he also works hard to get to those pucks. That, to me, is a vital trait to have, especially when Colorado simply didn't have a lot of guys who could do that. Surely some of you see the logic in a big guy like Z knocking someone off the puck, and a guy like Kerf taking the resulting turnover and skating it out. Not everyone can do that.

I also absolutely think that those of you who think Kerf is "soft" are out to lunch. He's not. He was more than willing to skate into the dirty areas along the boards and in front of the net and battle for pucks. He may not have had the size to knock people around but I don't think that is the end-all-be-all of a good defensive player.

So I'll conclude with this: Alex Kerfoot is a very good defensive forward. Not elite, but very good. His offense is decent, and he provided an invaluable asset by being a guy who could assist the defense (especially guys like EJ and Z who can get stuck in their own zone) and retrieve pucks to skate them out of trouble. They needed that because they did not have the depth on the back end or up front. Now they do, and arguably they may have a better version of Kerfoot in Joonas Donskoi who is big, fast, more experienced, and also drives play and is very good defensively. He too is very good at puck retrieval and is able to skate it out of the zone, though he is not quite as good in that one specific trait as Kerfoot (at least last time I checked). Regardless, the Avs have acquired the depth and puckmoving ability that should allow them to improve defensively and make themselves an even more formidable offensive force. Kerf was a very good stopgap measure that shouldn't be needed any longer. I think he'll do well in Toronto.

I shouldn’t have entered this thread because I was just saying the other day how I wish the conversations about players who don’t play for us would just die haha.

But, this is inflating a players value. I really don’t see how Kerfoot is good at puck retrieval, unless I’m misunderstanding what that means. I’ve never seen Kerfoot as a guy who’s separating a player from the puck and winning board battles. He can skate the puck out of the zone, I’ll give him that.

He has good vision out on the ice, but when he’s not producing I don’t see him making an impact on the game. That’s one of my issues with Kerfoot.

His success will likely be linked to how high he plays in the Leafs lineup. Hymen is inured to start the season, so if he starts on Matthews wing, I’m sure he’ll put up some points.

 

[Chileiceman]

He's OK in his own end I don't recall too many goals against that stemmed from him missing an assignment, refusing to backcheck, failing to clear the zone etc. I think why he's being lauded is because as @Pokecheque says he helps get pucks out of the zone with control. But I don't think he's particularly good at taking the puck away from the opponent which in my mind is the most importnat part of playing defense. He's not Landeskog or Soderberg, both of whom seem to excel at creating turnovers.

The problem with Leafs fans is that there are too many of them and the Canadian national hockey media spends like 50% of its resources covering them, so everything gets blown out of proportion, I live in Brantford ON so I listen to Toronto sports radio sometimes and it's kind of funny to listen to the talking heads talk about Alex Kerfoot, when I feel like they may have never seen him play before.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Tulloch: How Alexander Kerfoot can fill the third-line...

 

[Pokecheque]

I shouldn’t have entered this thread because I was just saying the other day how I wish the conversations about players who don’t play for us would just die haha.

But, this is inflating a players value. I really don’t see how Kerfoot is good at puck retrieval, unless I’m misunderstanding what that means. I’ve never seen Kerfoot as a guy who’s separating a player from the puck and winning board battles. He can skate the puck out of the zone, I’ll give him that.

He has good vision out on the ice, but when he’s not producing I don’t see him making an impact on the game. That’s one of my issues with Kerfoot.

His success will likely be linked to how high he plays in the Leafs lineup. Hymen is inured to start the season, so if he starts on Matthews wing, I’m sure he’ll put up some points.

Well that's why I think he has value when used alongside guys who do have the physicality to knock players off the puck, like Zadorov, but don't have the skill/speed to skate it out. Getting to loose pucks and doing something effective with them is a valuable skill.

I'll admit Kerf probably isn't a guy who's phenomenal at separating an opposing skater from the puck, but he has the speed/skill/wherewithal to snag it once it gets loose and get it out of the zone fast.

Another guy who didn't get near enough appreciation is Sheldon Dries. Unlike Kerfoot, he was extremely adept at getting his stick in passing lanes and creating turnovers. He also had enough speed to create breakaways off those turnovers, it's just unfortunate that he had next to no ability to finish.

 

[John Mandalorian]

He's a gerbil pretending to be a squirrel in a civil war re-enactment.

 

[henchman21]

He's a gerbil pretending to be a squirrel in a civil war re-enactment.

You say that like it isn’t awesome...

 

[flyfysher]

Was just reading James Tanner on HockeyBuzz stating Kerfoot should have been considered for the Selke. I don't begrudge Kerfoot but that's a definite alternate reality type of contention because it not reality in this universe or plain of existence.