Is Draft position overated when it comes to NHL success?

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Mess, Jun 18, 2005.

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  1. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    Threw together a Quick list of NHL players and their success that were not drafted in the TOP 2 ROUNDS .

    If you traded away your 1st and 2nd rounders in the past 15 years this is what you would have had to pick from ..

    Goalies
    Eddie Belfour - Undrafted
    Curtis Joseph - Undrafted
    Marty Turco - G - Selected by Dallas Stars round 5 #124 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft
    Tomas Vokoun - G - Selected by Montreal Canadiens round 9 #226 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft
    Nikolai Khabibulin - G - Selected by Winnipeg Jets round 9 #204 overall 1992 NHL Entry Draft
    Miikka Kiprusoff - G - Selected by San Jose Sharks round 5 #116 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft
    Evgeny Nabokov - G - Selected by San Jose Sharks round 9 #219 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft
    Robert Esche - G - Selected by Phoenix Coyotes round 6 #139 overall 1996 NHL Entry Draft
    Dominik Hasek - G - Selected by Chicago Blackhawks round 10 #199 overall 1983 NHL Entry Draft
    Andrew Raycroft - G - Selected by Boston Bruins round 5 #135 overall 1998 NHL Entry Draft
    Pasi Nurminen - G - Selected by Atlanta Thrashers round 6 #189 overall 2001 NHL Entry Draft
    Patrick Lalime - G - Selected by Pittsburgh Penguins round 6 #156 overall 1993 NHL Entry Draft

    Defense
    Nicklas Lidstrom - D - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 3 #63 overall 1989 NHL Entry Draft ... (726 points)
    Zdeno Chara - D - Selected by New-York Islanders round 3 #56 overall 1996 NHL Entry Draft ... (132 points)
    Rob Blake - D - Selected by Los-Angeles Kings round 4 #70 overall 1988 NHL Entry Draft - (586 points)
    Sergei Zubov - D - Selected by New-York Rangers round 5 #85 overall 1990 NHL Entry Draft ....(607 points)
    Mathieu Schneider - D - Selected by Montreal Canadiens round 3 #44 overall 1987 NHL Entry Draft .. (552 points)
    Alexei Zhitnik - D - Selected by Los-Angeles Kings round 4 #81 overall 1991 NHL Entry Draft ... (396 points)
    Tomas Kaberle - D - Selected by Toronto Maple Leafs round 8 #204 overall 1996 NHL Entry Draft ... (224 points)
    Kim Johnsson - D - Selected by New-York Rangers round 11 #286 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (169 points)
    Pavel Kubina - D - Selected by Tampa-Bay Lightning round 7 #179 overall 1996 NHL Entry Draft ... (171 points)
    Sheldon Souray - D - Selected by New-Jersey Devils round 3 #71 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (83 points)
    Danil Markov - D - Selected by Toronto Maple Leafs round 9 #223 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft ... (120 points)

    Forwards
    Martin St. Louis - RW - Undrafted .. (259 points)
    Milan Hejduk - RW Selected by Quebec Nordiques round 4 #87 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (416 points)
    Daniel Alfredsson - RW Selected by Ottawa Senators round 6 #133 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ...(569 points)
    Brad Richards - C - Selected by Tampa-Bay Lightning round 3 #64 overall 1998 NHL Entry Draft .... (277 points)
    Sergei Fedorov - C - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 4 #74 overall 1989 NHL Entry Draft ... (1019 points)
    Pavel Datsyuk - C - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 6 #171 overall 1998 NHL Entry Draft ... (154 points)
    Henrik Zetterberg - LW - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 7 #210 overall 1999 NHL Entry Draft ... (87 points)
    Mark Recchi -RW - Selected by Pittsburgh Penguins round 4 #67 overall 1988 NHL Entry Draft ....(1201 points)
    Steve Sullivan - C - Selected by New-Jersey Devils round 9 #233 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (449 points)
    Richard Zednik - RW - Selected by Washington Capitals round 10 #249 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (269 points)
    Tomas Holmstrom - LW - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 10 #257 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (236 Points)
    Chris Drury - LW - Selected by Quebec Nordiques round 3 #72 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (328 points)
    Alyn McCauley - C - Selected by New-Jersey Devils round 4 #79 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft .. (139 points)
    Fredrik Modin - LW - Selected by Toronto Maple Leafs round 3 #64 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (308 points)
    Darcy Tucker - RW - Selected by Montreal Canadiens round 6 #151 overall 1993 NHL Entry Draft ... (298 points)
    Michal Handzus - C - Selected by St. Louis Blues round 4 #101 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft ... (247 points)
    Tony Amonte - RW - Selected by New-York Rangers round 4 #68 overall 1988 NHL Entry Draft .. (828 points)
    Alexei Zhamnov - C - Selected by Winnipeg Jets round 4 #77 overall 1990 NHL Entry Draft ... (709 points)
    Sami Kapanen - LW - Selected by Hartford Whalers round 4 #87 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft .. (391 points)
    Mark Messier - C- Selected by Edmonton Oilers round 3 #48 overall 1979 NHL Entry Draft .. (1887 points)
    Anson Carter - RW - Selected by Quebec Nordiques round 10 #220 overall 1992 NHL Entry Draft ...(338 points)
    Kris Draper - C - Selected by Winnipeg Jets round 3 #62 overall 1989 NHL Entry Draft .. (236 point)
    Brett Hull - RW - Selected by Calgary Flames round 6 #117 overall 1984 NHL Entry Draft ... (1390 points)
    Luc Robitaille - LW - Selected by Los-Angeles Kings round 9 #171 overall 1984 NHL Entry Draft ... (1370 points)
    Robert Lang - C - Selected by Los-Angeles Kings round 7 #133 overall 1990 NHL Entry Draft ... (467 points)
    Jere Lehtinen - RW - Selected by Minnesota North Stars round 4 #88 overall 1992 NHL Entry Draft ...(341 points)
    Michael Nylander - C - Selected by Hartford Whalers round 3 #59 overall 1991 NHL Entry Draft. (447 points)
    Vaclav Prospal - RW - Selected by Philadelphia Flyers round 3 #71 overall 1993 NHL Entry Draft...(348 points)
    Vyacheslav Kozlov - LW - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 3 #45 overall 1990 NHL Entry Draft ...(559 points)
    Marc Savard - C - Selected by New-York Rangers round 4 #91 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft ...(304 points)
    Shawn McEachern - RW - Selected by Pittsburgh Penguins round 6 #110 overall 1987 NHL Entry Draft .. (571 points)
    Peter Bondra - RW - Selected by Washington Capitals round 8 #156 overall 1990 NHL Entry Draft .. (839 points)
    Pavol Demitra - C - Selected by Ottawa Senators round 9 #227 overall 1993 NHL Entry Draft ..(519 points)
    Brian Savage - LW - Selected by Montreal Canadiens round 8 #171 overall 1991 NHL Entry Draft ... (345 points)
    Miroslav Satan - LW - Selected by Edmonton Oilers round 5 #111 overall 1993 NHL Entry Draft ....(519 points)

    Just a few .. So if you never had a 1st and or 2nd round pick in the last 15 years you would have had to live with these guys only..
     
  2. SerbianEagle

    SerbianEagle Registered User

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    I think it depends on the team. Some teams are comfortable drafting either at #1 or at #30, whereas others just follow ISS and are only really interested in guys that ISS rates highly.

    New Jersey trust their scouting team completely and have been rewarded by some gems and to them it doesn't matter what round or position they draft at, they'll find their guy regardless.

    Detroit has also been able to throw out a few decent prospects even though they haven't had to many Round 1 picks in the last 5-6 years.

    But then you also have teams who really struggle unless they have a top 10 pick. Of the top of my head I can think of Toronto (I am not trying to start a fight). Outside of Colaiacovo and Stajan, I can't think of a prospect of theirs that can be pegged as a future regular contibutor.

    Oilers used to be the same from about 1991-2000, where they really stuggled at the draft, but now they've started to trust their scouting team more and have actually placed a higher importance on the draft itself and have been rewarded with a few exciting prospects.

    But anyway, it depends on the team in question.
     
  3. salty justice

    salty justice Registered User

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    When compared to the number of players that dont make it in rounds 3-10 and the ones that go undrafted, its very important. Every year there are three or four good players drafted in later rounds, and those guys arent easy to find. I dont think any GM has much confidence without a 1st or 2nd round pick.

    The likelyness of a player making an impact in the NHL is much much higher in the 1st round.
     
  4. Legionnaire

    Legionnaire Kill! Jeff, Kill!!!

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    Exactly.
     
  5. Chootoi

    Chootoi Registered User

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    alot of good goalies get taken late simply because goalies are more of a craps shoot. it's hard to gauge how any of them will turn out
     
  6. flambers

    flambers Registered User

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    The simple fact is NHL teams are forced to draft 18 year old players. A team does as much homework as they can and then its allot of luck.

    I agree, a goalie is a long term investment so they are drafted later.
     
  7. NYR469

    NYR469 Registered User

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    the draft is a crapshoot, i heard one scout say that trying to find the best nhler at age 18 is like going into a 6th grade science class and trying to pick out the best future doctor...that is why so many want the draft age raised, you see drastic changes in ranking in a year so if you pick at 19 it increases the odds of success.

    but just to also note as a bit of a disclaimer, with many of the older european players, back in the old soviet union days teams were afraid to waste high draft picks on players because they didn't think they would ever come over. when the rangers took kovalev 15th overall in 1991 he was the first russian taken in the first round. and it wasn't because he was better then the guys before him. if guys like bure, fedorov, mogilny, etc were drafted today they would have been 1st rounders because the fear that they wouldn't come over doesn't apply...and the same applied to czechoslovakia.
     
  8. looooob

    looooob Registered User

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    while there are lots of examples of late round gems etc, draft position is still pretty darn important

    Here's the list of guys who are still active who have been either first or 2nd team allstars at Centre:

    Sakic (15th overall)
    Thornton (1st overall)
    Sundin (1st overall)
    Forsberg (6th overall)
    Lemieux (1st overall)
    Modano (1st overall)
    Yzerman (4th overall)
    Yashin (2nd overall)
    Lindros (1st overall)
    Federov (4th round)
    Zhamnov (4th round)
    Messier (3rd round: 48th overall in very deep 1979 draft)

    so outside of 2 Russian guys taken prior to the fall of the "Wall" and a WHA era guy its all first rounders, almost half are first overall picks

    picking inside the first 1-5 guys frankly gives you access to a very high density of future stars. almost impossible to draft an allstar centre outside the first round
     
  9. MeatTornado

    MeatTornado I was born ready

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    I think draft position is really only almost irrelevant when it comes to goaltenders. Generally, the better skaters are taken early in the draft, but of course as you've shown there are quite a few exceptions
     
  10. Legionnaire

    Legionnaire Kill! Jeff, Kill!!!

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    From what I observed, it has become more and more of a priority. The first season that I remember a goalie being taken high was Storr in 94'. Since then a ton of goalies have become first rounders.

    IMO it's because after the high scoring 80's, GM's have seen the big difference a goalie can make.
     
  11. Beukeboom Fan

    Beukeboom Fan Registered User

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    One thing to consider, those 70-100 players you listed are on 30 NHL teams. On average, that's about 3 players a team that were late round gems. If a team is really successful at finding guys late, and finds 4-5 guys, they still need 14 other players to fill the rosters.

    One thing that funny to me - if a GM knew a player would be good, they wouldn't of drafted them in the 8th round. It's a total crapshoot, and some teams are much better at it than others.
     
  12. Pax Macioretty

    Pax Macioretty Registered User

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    a drafting positions mean's that the player you draft has better odds(sp?) of having succes, not having more succes
     
  13. BlackBiRd5

    BlackBiRd5 Registered User

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    I don't think that you are - and the Leafs are as much a good example as regards your point as any.. the Leafs have struggled in that regard and the only solace we have is that APPEARS to be changing in the last few years and Ferguson Jr. insists that it will further

    I think it would be fair, however, to add Alex Steen and John Mitchell to Coliacovo and Stajan as future regular contributors.

    And as far as the thread question, all things considered my answer is yes and I base that solely on a look at the composition of the average NHL roster - nothing more. As alluded to by previous posters, there are far too many intangibles that cannot be assesed sufficiently when a player reaches the age of draft eligibility..

    I mean, if we can take Luca Cereda with our first rounder that year ... ugghh :shakehead (I won't even list the players who went after in MANY ROUNDS that would have been preferable because it's too depressing)
     
  14. CurtisJD13

    CurtisJD13 Registered User

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    It also goes both ways...look at the guys who have been selected in the first round and have busted...heck, Joe Murphy was the #1 overall pick in his draft year. It all depends on scouting...if your team gets bad draft position, you can get away with it with good scouting, even if you take a guy off the charts. The Coyotes get bashed all the time for taking Wheeler at #5 overall...but then look at who went #6, Montoya. I think 9/10 hockey fans would rather have Wheeler at this point.

    All about the scouting
     
  15. SerbianEagle

    SerbianEagle Registered User

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    He would probably be playing for the Leafs now, if it wasn't for the unfortunate heart problems. IIRC he was a promising prospect in that draft.
     
  16. kingpest19

    kingpest19 Registered User

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    The Kings were horrible when it came to drafting in the mid to late 90s. at least things have appeared to be getting better. Theyve made a few projects picks that appear to be turning the corner and might actually become part of the team. It all turned around when they brought Dave Taylor in. A large part of them turning it around was him hiring a competent scouting staff. He is committed to building from within and adding from the outside when need be
     
  17. Kirk- NEHJ

    Kirk- NEHJ Registered User

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    NHL teams do their own scouting.

    To infer that ANY NHL club places the kind of stock in the ISS rankings that you suggest is absolutely ludicrous.
     
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2005
  18. Jaded-Fan

    Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    Posted elsewhere, but appropriate for this thread:

    Does anyone think that it is a coincidence that the teams who have been among the top teams for as long as I can remember are at the bottom of HF's org. rankings. Examples:

    Detroit 24, Dallas 26, Toronto 29, Colorado 30

    Now look at the other end:

    Washington 1, Pittsburgh 2, Chicago 3.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/orgrankings.php

    Yes, drafting position makes a huge difference in most cases, despite the anecdotal examples that began this thread.
     
  19. The Old Master

    The Old Master Registered User

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    i'll take my chances with high picks:)
     
  20. Kirk- NEHJ

    Kirk- NEHJ Registered User

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    The problem with the organizational rankings is that they are subjective, and tend to reflect more favorably on organizations who have drafted the highly-ranked players on the Central Scouting lists.

    Because those are the only rankings that are made public, it makes the most sense, but final team lists are far different from the ones Central puts out.

    So, you have organizations getting high marks for having top-10 draft picks, even if some of those guys have yet to pan out in the NHL.

    A good example of this trend was the way the Rangers were ranked in 1999, when they came away with Pavel Brendl and Jamie Lundmark and vaulted to the top of the organizational rankings based on the potential of both players.

    I understand that it is the way you do business, but the road to the NHL is paved with failed highly drafted prospects such as Kris Beech, Alexandre Volchkov, and so on, but teams too often get a top organizational grade simply because they had the third overall selection in a draft. Sure- more often than not, the third pick is going to go on to be a very good NHL player, but the fact is, until he does it, there is still an element of uncertainty.

    The organizational grades are all fine and dandy, but like anything else, they are simply a projection, nothing more. So, merely pointing to them to justify the importance of draft position isn't the way to go either.

    Any scout will tell you that it isn't the first-round picks that solidify a reputation, but the gems uncovered in the middle-to-late rounds that truly establish a scout's value in his profession.
     
  21. Anthony Mauro

    Anthony Mauro DraftBuzz Hockey

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    To his benefit, ISS does paint a pretty picture that makes it seem like it is very intouch with the prohockey world. They put forth statements such as:

     
  22. Kirk- NEHJ

    Kirk- NEHJ Registered User

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    So what?

    It still doesn't change the fact that NHL teams do their own scouting, regardless of what ISS promises to deliver on their website.

    His comments made it sound like some NHL clubs do nothing other than read ISS to build their draftboards and that couldn't be further from the truth. I was merely commenting on that.

    ISS has gotten a lot of positive attention in recent months, but that doesn't change the fact that NHL teams employ their own scouts to get the job done.
     
  23. Anthony Mauro

    Anthony Mauro DraftBuzz Hockey

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    Lol, there is no question that NHL teams employ their own scouts. That is almost like the one thing that does not need to be questioned. I brought up the ISS scouts b/c maybe thats where he was convinced? Looking back at his comments, it seems like he's in the know as far as knowing some GM's and teams whose only scouting is subscribing to ISS. Unless that was sarcastic, who knows what he meant.
     
  24. Chaos

    Chaos And the winner is...

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    1. No offense, but I wouldnt put much stock into the org. rankings. They are extremely subjective, and seem to put a heavy emphasis on where a player was drafted, not his performance since being drafted.

    2. Three of the 4 low ranked teams have all won a Cup within the past 5 seasons, while the top 3 ranked teams haven't won a Cup in over 10 years. Doesnt that tell you something about NHL success?
     
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