lomiller1
Registered User
- Jan 13, 2015
- 6,409
- 2,967
You can’t use, for example, the 2005 LA Kings top predict whether the 2015 LA Kings will win/lose because the team is completely different. What he "predicted" wasn’t team performance but which metric would most strongly correlate to team performance within that season which is a completely trivial result.I guess you just straight up didn’t read the article. At least not carefully. He took goal stats from 05-06 to 2014-15 and put them against long term shot stats from the same time frame to predict the outcome of 2015-16. Goal stats were better by a large margin.
What you want is to predict the outcome (or the goal differential) of future games, not what the relationship between goals/wins will be. (In fact a large part of the basis for using Corsi is that it predicts future goal and this translates into predicting wins/losses because you already know the relationship.)