Is Bedard more McDavid or Drai/Matthews/Mackinnon level talent?

[daver]

My opinion is literally, "I'll judge him as an NHL player when he plays an NHL game".

I don't see the flaw in my logic, but I can sure see the flaws in yours. You're just upset that not everyone is anointing him the next best thing.

What is my flaw? Stats back up the notion that only Crosby was better as a CHL prospect in the last 35 years and history shows that players who are identified as phenoms at a young age and prove that up until they are drafted, go on to be the best of their era/generation.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

What is my flaw? Stats back up the notion that only Crosby was better as a CHL prospect in the last 35 years and history shows that players who are identified as phenoms at a young age and prove that up until they are drafted, go on to be the best of their era/generation.

Sample size and confirmation bias.

 

[Happyhary9]

I think relative performance vs peers still applies. I think the fact that Lafontaine lapped even Lemieux despite being only a 8 months older is pretty remarkable.


I have him slightly ahead of Kane, but I still think they are pretty comparable. The OHL that season was stacked, so his performance vs his peers is pretty impressive.

Bedard also fell short of the .5 mark of ppg over his peers at .49 (Stankoven had 2.02 ppg).


It's not surprising that a goal scorer like Bedard would score a lot more points relative to his teammates when compared to pass first guys like Crosby and Kane. Those guys were much better at facilitating, while Bedard was very much a shoot first guy, and as a playmaker he tended to look more to directly set up shooting opportunities for teammates.

Like, if you watch Bedard and Sid, you'll notice how often 87 uses his point men vs Bedard, who sees that play as a last resort and will prefer to hold onto the puck to either find a shot for himself or a cross ice pass to a teammate. There's nothing wrong with either, but the former tends to get more guys involved in the offense.

Note - this is not at all a knock on Bedard, its more of a stylistic thing that would drive more separation between his point totals and his teammates.

Like, I don't think Suzdalev and Howe (these weren't his only linemates) are any worse junior hockey players than Kostitsyn and Gagner were, but Kane really elevated them:

Gagner in 2005-06
56gp 11g 46p (USHL)

Gagner in 2006-07
53gp 35g 118p

Kostitsyn in 2005-06
63gp 26g 78p (OHL)

Kostitsyn in 2006-07
59gp 40g 131p

I don't think it's a coincidence that their numbers skyrocketed once they started playing with Kane.

You used just 1 player to calculate Bedard's ppg game over peers. The .45 for Kane is based off using the average of the top 3 scorers, so you have a larger sample size. I stated Bedard is at .79 ppg over if you use the same as Kanes. Using 3 is more accurate then just 1.

Yes Kane did elevate guys around him. But as also stated the whole London Knights team had inflated #s due to Hunters scheme, as in the didn't play D. That team had 6 guys over a ppg.

As a Hawks fan I love Kane but he was not as dominant as Bedard was in the CHL and WJC-20. Kane plays a much more perimeter game then Bedard. At 8 months older Kane was 5'9 165 at the combine compared to Bedard at 5'10 185. Bedard is much stronger on the puck and a much better shot. People have really started to underrated Bedard as a playmaker. Neither Howe (who isn't even draft eligible till next year) or Suzdalev are top goal scorers, both are more playmaker. Bedard carried that Regina team in goal scoring. Notice how once Bedard was on team Canada his assist rate went up and he still scored goals. He just had guys that could finish better.

 

[centipede2233]

We might see a nice inflated year from Taylor hall.

 

[biturbo19]

I don't think either really captures it. It's just weird to compare him to a trio of big powerful #1Cs like that. He's probably more like a...Jack Hughes level talent.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You used just 1 player to calculate Bedard's ppg game over peers. The .45 for Kane is based off using the average of the top 3 scorers, so you have a larger sample size. I stated Bedard is at .79 ppg over if you use the same as Kanes. Using 3 is more accurate then just 1.

Yes Kane did elevate guys around him. But as also stated the whole London Knights team had inflated #s due to Hunters scheme, as in the didn't play D. That team had 6 guys over a ppg.

As a Hawks fan I love Kane but he was not as dominant as Bedard was in the CHL and WJC-20. Kane plays a much more perimeter game then Bedard. At 8 months older Kane was 5'9 165 at the combine compared to Bedard at 5'10 185. Bedard is much stronger on the puck and a much better shot. People have really started to underrated Bedard as a playmaker. Neither Howe (who isn't even draft eligible till next year) or Suzdalev are top goal scorers, both are more playmaker. Bedard carried that Regina team in goal scoring. Notice how once Bedard was on team Canada his assist rate went up and he still scored goals. He just had guys that could finish better.

I never said he was a poor playmaker, he's got elite vision. But he is a shot first guy, and his playmaking tendencies are a lot different than guys like Crosby and Kane. This contributes to more unbalanced scoring distribution on his teams.

Howe was only a month away from being drafted this year btw, he's only 4 months younger than Bedard. He and Suzdalev are just as good as Gagner and Kostitsyn, but Bedard's style doesn't have the same inflationary impact on his teammates as Kane (and Crosby) because of those stylistic differences.

 

[TLEH]

None of this analysis is going to be perfect. Saying he has to prove it on NHL ice is obvious. It’s just the dog days of August.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Howe was only a month away from being drafted this year btw, he's only 4 months younger than Bedard. He and Suzdalev are just as good as Gagner and Kostitsyn,

I can’t speak as much to Suzdalev but Howe has been Canada’s worst forward at the last two u18s; without Bédard I think he falls out of the first round next year. This notion that you’ve had that he had a plethora of quality teammates in Regina is misplaced in my opinion; I believe only Svozil becomes a full time NHL player of that group

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I'd say he's below McDavid right now. But above the three comparisons.

But I think it's still too early.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I can’t speak as much to Suzdalev but Howe has been Canada’s worst forward at the last two u18s; without Bédard I think he falls out of the first round next year. This notion that you’ve had that he had a plethora of quality teammates in Regina is misplaced in my opinion; I believe only Svozil becomes a full time NHL player of that group

He didn't have a plethora of talent to play with, but Svozil, Suzdalev, and Howe are good junior players in their own right.

 

[daver]

I don't think either really captures it. It's just weird to compare him to a trio of big powerful #1Cs like that. He's probably more like a...Jack Hughes level talent.

Not sure why this is relevant. McDavid is more of a C/W hybrid than a traditional #1C. The comparison should be limited to offensive talent only and Kucherov should be added into the mix.

That being said, Jack Hughes level is not reasonable given Bedard's clearly superior pre-draft pedigree.

 

[ijuka]

I don't think either really captures it. It's just weird to compare him to a trio of big powerful #1Cs like that. He's probably more like a...Jack Hughes level talent.

Their respective draft years, Bedard scored more at u-20s than Hughes at u-18s.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Not sure why this is relevant. McDavid is more of a C/W hybrid than a traditional #1C. The comparison should be limited to offensive talent only and Kucherov should be added into the mix.

That being said, Jack Hughes level is not reasonable given Bedard's clearly superior pre-draft pedigree.

So Kucherov can be considered a comparable but not Jack Hughes, because of pre-draft pedigree?

You realize how little sense that makes, right?

 

[Video Nasty]

None of this analysis is going to be perfect. Saying he has to prove it on NHL ice is obvious. It’s just the dog days of August.

There will be still be no shortage of people on this forum who will not watch his NHL games and remain insistent they’re qualified to comment on his play.

 

[Cubs2024WSChamps]

Bing

Bingo! The biggest reason for McDavid‘s dominance is actually not his fast twitch muscle stuff(of which he does still havave an advantage over most of the NHL/His peers, obviously sports like basketball and football have a higher concentration of superior fast twitch muscle athletes),

The reason that Bedard or nobody else in the for seeable future will match McDavid is because low-key his biggest asset is his brain. McDavid obviously has a psychopathic work ethic that he uses to refine his techniques and skills(like Crosby has previously), and I can actually see Bedard as the type of guy that can match that level of intense obsessive training which will likely make him a top two or three player in the league,….

But what nobody is going to match McDavid in is that brain power, there’s a few vids on YouTube about some type of fancy sports Science Facility that measures brain scans of elite professional athletes across all sports and the fact that the professionals that run these tests consistently rave that McDavid’s brain scans(when he’s doing his thing carrying the puck with speed) are off the charts compared to all other elite athletes they test, should be the big indicator of why we’re all witnessing something very special with McDavid that isn’t likely to come along again anytime soon,.. it really should be no surprise that McDavid has some superior brain power compared to most of his peers, if I remember correctly he won scholastic player of the year all while being the most hyped hockey prospect since Crosby. McDavid also obviously likely has some really great neurological genetics on account of the fact that his twin brother is a doctor.

This is 100% malarkey.

There was a TSN video where Bobby Mack proclaimed the back of McDavids head by the brain stem read red on account of his concentration while not comprehending concentration is handled by your frontal lobe. That's lol worthy cringe .

Second, how can any doctor read actual brain waves while McDavid is "doing his thing carrying the puck up the ice with speed " when to read brain waves you need to be hooked up to an EEG with electrodes implanted into your brain?

Seriously, is a doctor watching a hockey game and making a diagnosis?

Hell oh hell

 

[wetcoast]

He was more productive/dominant than McDavid during his junior career and dominated the WJCs along with being the best goalscoring prospect from the CHL since Mario.

When have we seen a prospect who put up generational/all-time great production not meet that level in the NHL? The answer is never.

Wayne, Mario, Lindros, Crosby, McDavid all met the hype.

Exactly if HF Boards were around back in the day they would say that Gretzky is slight, Mario is lazy in a weak league, Crosby too small try against men, McDavid didn't dominate his league.......

 

[kevsh]

He checks all the boxes for a generational talent, including having the work ethic, humility and compete level.

I do however believe he won't get off to a McDavid/Crosby/Lemieux/Gretzky-like start numbers wise, where each of those guys was at or near the top of the scoring race in their first season. By season 3 though, and beyond, watch out.

 

[blundluntman]

This is 100% malarkey.

There was a TSN video where Bobby Mack proclaimed the back of McDavids head by the brain stem read red on account of his concentration while not comprehending concentration is handled by your frontal lobe. That's lol worthy cringe .

Second, how can any doctor read actual brain waves while McDavid is "doing his thing carrying the puck up the ice with speed " when to read brain waves you need to be hooked up to an EEG with electrodes implanted into your brain?

Seriously, is a doctor watching a hockey game and making a diagnosis?

Hell oh hell

Not to be that guy, but there are theories and some studies that associate the "flow state" with decreased activity in the prefrontal cortex. I'm not certain if it's a universally accepted fact but there's at least a valid argument for it. So I wouldn't say that's cringeworthy. And there's actually equipment that can monitor brain wave activity without invasive implants. This type of stuff is researched more often than you'd think.

With that being said, I don't think McDavid is completely untouchable just because he processes the game at a faster level. Bedard has incredible hockey IQ and makes incredibly quick decisions in real-time. His situational awareness, anticipation, and skillset make him a generational talent for sure. Not sure if he'll net 150 points but I can see around 130 or so.

 

[Cubs2024WSChamps]

Not to be that guy, but there are theories and some studies that associate the "flow state" with decreased activity in the prefrontal cortex. I'm not certain if it's a universally accepted fact but there's at least a valid argument for it. So I wouldn't say that's cringeworthy. And there's actually equipment that can monitor brain wave activity without invasive implants. This type of stuff is researched more often than you'd think.

With that being said, I don't think McDavid is completely untouchable just because he processes the game at a faster level. Bedard has incredible hockey IQ and makes incredibly quick decisions in real-time. His situational awareness, anticipation, and skillset make him a generational talent for sure. Not sure if he'll net 150 points but I can see around 130 or so.

I'm not putting Bedard or anybody on McDavids level. Nor am I taking away anything about how McDavid processes the game of hockey which is just plainly on another level then anybody else.

I'm just pointing out the flaws in the whole "well some guys on youtube said" crap and kaboshing that on site.

Does McDavid have a demigod cerebellum? Well, duh. But concentration, which is what MacKenzie said, isn't a part of that equation.

 

[blundluntman]

I'm not putting Bedard or anybody on McDavids level. Nor am I taking away anything about how McDavid processes the game of hockey which is just plainly on another level then anybody else.

I'm just pointing out the flaws in the whole "well some guys on youtube said" crap and kaboshing that on site.

Does McDavid have a demigod cerebellum? Well, duh. But concentration, which is what MacKenzie said, isn't a part of that equation.

In the video, Mackenzie actually claimed he spoke to people in the sports medicine department, it's not like he just theorized this on his own. Concentration certainly is part of the equation when it comes to things like flow state, it's basically hyperfocus/concentration. Maybe I'm not understanding what you're getting at.

 

[Cubs2024WSChamps]

In the video, Mackenzie actually claimed he spoke to people in the sports medicine department, it's not like he just theorized this on his own. Concentration certainly is part of the equation when it comes to things like flow state, it's basically hyperfocus/concentration. Maybe I'm not understanding what you're getting at.

That it's nothing but made up gibberish.

Mackenzie clearly states the back of the brain.

Either he made it up or his sources are quacks.