is Al Montoya under rated?

[knorthern knight]

This is an excellent point Northern Knight. How much does it help a team who has a goaltender who gives up less rebounds and can handle the puck well? Even if his save percentage is the same.

Hmmm.

If it's a difference of 4 shots a game, that's more than 30 extra goals per year.

How many extra losses does that add up to?

Answer in our case: In the playoffs vs out of the playoffs.

There have been games where it's more like 4 shots per period.

 

[winterpeg]

I think Montoya is a little underrated vs. pavelec by Noel. Not by fans though.

I'd like to see Pavelec play 55 games. I think that's about right for him.

I don't think he's spectacular, but he's a heck of a lot better when rested, and stats totally back that up.

 

[Mud Turtle]

This is an excellent point Northern Knight. How much does it help a team who has a goaltender who gives up less rebounds and can handle the puck well? Even if his save percentage is the same.

Hmmm.

If it's a difference of 4 shots a game, that's more than 30 extra goals per year.

How many extra losses does that add up to?

Answer in our case: In the playoffs vs out of the playoffs.

Ok, so more very interesting numbers below.

I know that we give more credibility to Save % than GAA. And for the most part, I agree. But, back to the question, does rebound control and puck handling ability (3rd defenceman) actually make much of a difference?

Pretty easy to compare these two goalies. Pavs is terrible for rebounds and we all know he must be a half brother to James Wright because he has James' hands. On the other hand, Montoya is better at both.

So, although they both have very similar career save percentages in the NHL, and both have played on defensively suspect teams their entire careers, what's left to compare? Well, GAA.

Pavs has a career 2.98 GAA while Montoya sits at 2.73. That's significant.

That takes us back to my initial question. 4 extra shots per game due to bad rebound control and puck handling ability (turnovers in our own end).

Pavs and Montoya may be close to equals on Save%, but Montoya faces less shots because he's simply better in those two areas. Pavs on the other hand, gets himself into more trouble.

Thoughts?

 

[cheswick]

Ok, so more very interesting numbers below.

I know that we give more credibility to Save % than GAA. And for the most part, I agree. But, back to the question, does rebound control and puck handling ability (3rd defenceman) actually make much of a difference?

Pretty easy to compare these two goalies. Pavs is terrible for rebounds and we all know he must be a half brother to James Wright because he has James' hands. On the other hand, Montoya is better at both.

So, although they both have very similar career save percentages in the NHL, and both have played on defensively suspect teams their entire careers, what's left to compare? Well, GAA.

Pavs has a career 2.98 GAA while Montoya sits at 2.73. That's significant.

That takes us back to my initial question. 4 extra shots per game due to bad rebound control and puck handling ability (turnovers in our own end).

Pavs and Montoya may be close to equals on Save%, but Montoya faces less shots because he's simply better in those two areas. Pavs on the other hand, gets himself into more trouble.

Thoughts?

Maybe Montoya faces less shots cause he's been a career backup and thus usually starts agaisnt less offensively skilled opposition.

 

[Duke749]

I think everyone can agree that Montoya should get more starts then what we anticipate he will get, regardless what your opinion of the situation is.

 

[McDrailers]

Mr first round draft pick absolutely untouchable Al Montoya?

Seriously though he's a solid backup, unless you know you want Mason back here (nice gear but terrible). Al should for sure get at least 20 games in, he's proven he can be just as reliable as pavelic, and in some cases just as bad. Hard to say what you've got in a guy when he doesn't get time

 

[cbcwpg]

I think everyone can agree that Montoya should get more starts then what we anticipate he will get, regardless what your opinion of the situation is.

So... do we need to start the " We want Montoya " chants next home game?

On the point of goaltending is there anything out there that gives you a better idea of the position than save percentage ( and I have one in my family who hates this stat ) , which the majority of people use to point to a goalie and say "he sucks"?

I dislike save percentage because it doesn't take into account the actual quality of the shot or scoring chance. You could have 3 goalies that all have a save percentage of .909 yet one of the three faces much more difficult shots than the others, or plays on a poor team, yet because of SV% he gets lumped into the same category.

 

[JMT21]

Tough to say if Monty is truly underrated. All I know he's only appeared in 8 games for the Jets and has posted 2 shut outs in those 8 games.

He has better rebound control than Pavs and it way better at handling the puck.

Not saying he should be the starter.... but I'd like to see Monty play 20 games minimum.

 

[Duke749]

So... do we need to start the " We want Montoya " chants next home game?

On the point of goaltending is there anything out there that gives you a better idea of the position than save percentage ( and I have one in my family who hates this stat ) , which the majority of people use to point to a goalie and say "he sucks"?

I dislike save percentage because it doesn't take into account the actual quality of the shot or scoring chance. You could have 3 goalies that all have a save percentage of .909 yet one of the three faces much more difficult shots than the others, or plays on a poor team, yet because of SV% he gets lumped into the same category.

I kinda agree with this. You really have to watch a goalie to get the best idea because you don't know what kinda of shots he does face. I mean, people kept pointing out to Pavs SV% last game as indicative of his play, yet two goals were far from his fault, and he still almost saved that freebie Bogo gave the Caps.

People want to point to Montoya's shutout, yet ignore the fact that he was rarely tested and that the team in front of him played much better then the Devils. Montoya was good when he had to be, but those chances were few and far between.

Pavs ES SV% is more indicative of his play. But that doesn't mean we don't need him to be better when down a man or in the shootout or better then last game in general.

 

[Jet]

So... do we need to start the " We want Montoya " chants next home game?

On the point of goaltending is there anything out there that gives you a better idea of the position than save percentage ( and I have one in my family who hates this stat ) , which the majority of people use to point to a goalie and say "he sucks"?

I dislike save percentage because it doesn't take into account the actual quality of the shot or scoring chance. You could have 3 goalies that all have a save percentage of .909 yet one of the three faces much more difficult shots than the others, or plays on a poor team, yet because of SV% he gets lumped into the same category.

This has been debunked by long term, huge sample numbers. Goalies with over 3000 shot sample sizes have shown that shot quality tends to even out.

Then there is the fact that there are goalies on teams with far worse defenses, and by extension "harder shots" that have better sv%

Finally, there is the fact that some goalies actually CREATE more shots against for themselves with poor positioning, bad rebounds and poor puck handling. Prime example: Pavelec shoots puck to Caps player who throws it to the front of the net. Off Bogo and right to another Caps player and in. Montoya makes smarter play and that puck is out. One extra shot right there, resulting in a goal.

They have to come up with better metrics for assessing goalies though.

 

[Duke749]

This has been debunked by long term, huge sample numbers. Goalies with over 3000 shot sample sizes have shown that shot quality tends to even out.

Then there is the fact that there are goalies on teams with far worse defenses, and by extension "harder shots" that have better sv%

Finally, there is the fact that some goalies actually CREATE more shots against for themselves with poor positioning, bad rebounds and poor puck handling. Prime example: Pavelec shoots puck to Caps player who throws it to the front of the net. Off Bogo and right to another Caps player and in. Montoya makes smarter play and that puck is out. One extra shot right there, resulting in a goal.

They have to come up with better metrics for assessing goalies though.

I thought the goal against Nashville was like instant karma for Pavs horrendous turnover. Had two options, and what does he do? Shoot it around the boards straight to a Preds player. Someone needs to tell him to just stop handling the puck so much. He is astoundingly awful at it.

 

[theamazingchris]

Save percentage doesn't take into account shot quality because in the long term it doesn't really matter. See here. In one game, shot quality matters enormously, though, so sv% is not very useful. You're better off looking at scoring chances if you want to know which goalie did better in a specific game, at least as far as I'm concerned.

 

[cbcwpg]

I thought the goal against Nashville was like instant karma for Pavs horrendous turnover. Had two options, and what does he do? Shoot it around the boards straight to a Preds player. Someone needs to tell him to just stop handling the puck so much. He is astoundingly awful at it.

I have talked about this at the games with the people around me, and I ask the question.....

Are the Jets even taking the time to make Pavs a better puck handler? Is he refusing to practice it? Have the Jets decided he's a lost cause and won't even bother trying to help?

The rink is empty most days. Put 1000 pucks on the ice and tell Pavs to come down to the rink each day and practice. Not being able to "some what" handle the puck in unacceptable in the NHL.

 

[Duke749]

I have talked about this at the games with the people around me, and I ask the question.....

Are the Jets even taking the time to make Pavs a better puck handler? Is he refusing to practice it? Have the Jets decided he's a lost cause and won't even bother trying to help?

The rink is empty most days. Put 1000 pucks on the ice and tell Pavs to come down to the rink each day and practice. Not being able to "some what" handle the puck in unacceptable in the NHL.

It sure as hell doesn't look like it, which is very annoying. Like Jet pointed out, it could cut chances, shots, and potential goals down.

 

[Gm0ney]

It sure as hell doesn't look like it, which is very annoying. Like Jet pointed out, it could cut chances, shots, and potential goals down.

They certainly told him to not do anything stupid with the puck after the Preds game - he was ultra-conservative about leaving the net in the Caps game. The most he would do is stop it behind the net for his defenseman when it was clear his d-man would be the first one back.

 

[Gm0ney]

I like Wins. great stat. That's the point of the game after all. Does the team win with that goalie in net.

So I looked at wins vs losses over each goalies career. I used hockeydb.com numbers to to go as far back as I could get.

I think Ties and s/o losses are games your goalie as to help keep you in, so I added them to the win column. Then to put it all on the same page I simply divided the losses by the wins

then I ran a similar comparison on a guy I figure is one of the best. then I ran it on a guy I figured IS the Best.

Pavs 238 wins vs 180 losses 0.756302521

Monty 205 vs 108 0.526829268

Tukka Rask 214 vs 111 0.518691589

Pat Roy 714-375 0.525210084

Across the entirety of their careers Monty wins(or is "in the game") more. no matter what team or level. The team Monty plays for wins more than the team Pavs plays for.

And the company Monty keeps is pretty good. A heck of a lot better than I expected. A LOT BETTER.

Ps. I also ran it counting ties for losses. same results Monty was in the ballpark and Pavs was far away.

Well, that certainly makes Pavelec look bad. I'm not sure whether it's really predictive or helpful though. Under that system, Pavelec and Hotlby would both get a win for the game the other night...not sure if that's a good reflection of the reality, if you see what I'm saying. I don't think it's very accurate to attribute a win or a loss to a goalie without any context...much less a tie/OT.

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

I have talked about this at the games with the people around me, and I ask the question.....

Are the Jets even taking the time to make Pavs a better puck handler? Is he refusing to practice it? Have the Jets decided he's a lost cause and won't even bother trying to help?

The rink is empty most days. Put 1000 pucks on the ice and tell Pavs to come down to the rink each day and practice. Not being able to "some what" handle the puck in unacceptable in the NHL.

Pavs stick handling/puck touching even stresses out even the "Bogo Approved behind the net Pace Maker"

 

[Skidooboy]

Well, that certainly makes Pavelec look bad. I'm not sure whether it's really predictive or helpful though. Under that system, Pavelec and Hotlby would both get a win for the game the other night...not sure if that's a good reflection of the reality, if you see what I'm saying. I don't think it's very accurate to attribute a win or a loss to a goalie without any context...much less a tie/OT.

To paraphrase "losers whine about context, winners go home and **** the prom queen!"

Wins are it. That's what makes you a champion, winning games. How many times have we seen goalies steal games? How many times have we seen teams stay focused and calm because they as a unit know the guy between the pipes helps them win. Something Pavs isn't real good at. And I have spilled a lot of e-ink in the past defending him.... So this isn't a witch hunt.

 

[scelaton]

Amidst all the negativity and criticism, Montoya's solid performance should not be overlooked. It's too bad they couldn't pull out a win for him, but, by every other measure, he put in a solid performance.
There is no reason not to give him more starts, the sooner the better.