is Al Montoya under rated?

[Gm0ney]

not Jet.

dude loves his underdogs. Peluso, Montoya.

underdog stories are exciting and make a great narrative. but, realistically, such a tiny fraction of underdogs actually meet the David vs Goliath narrative that is spun for them.

Did Montoya look good in his only start of the season? Yes.
Was he spectacular? no. it was against the Devils.
Should he get more than 15 starts a year? no.

Given that Montoya has similar career stats to Pavelec, why not split their time a little more equally. If Montoya isn't worthy of 15 starts a year, then neither is Pavs.

One thing Montoya has going for him is that he's actually a decent puck handler. How many extra shots a night does Pavelec face because he can't help his D out? How many extra D-zone faceoffs are there because he needs to freeze puck instead of playing it. Is that worth 5 shots a night? He stops about 90% so that's a goal every 2 games because he's a puck handling liability...

You watch how the team plays - why do they go into that 5-man box? Why is it a 5-alarm fire in the crease every time there's a shot of Pavelec? He's bobbling everything right now, doesn't know where the puck is half the time, serves up juicy rebounds into the slot...is Montoya going to be worse? If he plays a solid game where the skaters don't need to defibrillate after every chance, maybe things settle down and we can string together some wins. It might be worth a shot.

But then again, I just heard Noel say that he thought our goaltending's been outstanding, so I wouldn't hold my breath...

 

[Jet]

not Jet.

dude loves his underdogs. Peluso, Montoya.

underdog stories are exciting and make a great narrative. but, realistically, such a tiny fraction of underdogs actually meet the David vs Goliath narrative that is spun for them.

Did Montoya look good in his only start of the season? Yes.
Was he spectacular? no. it was against the Devils.
Should he get more than 15 starts a year? no.

Here is my issue with the above. You are convicting Peluso and Montoya with out even giving them a trial.

Montoya has not yet been given an adequate chance to prove what he can do here. That is at least fair. Pav has been given more than ample opportunities to show us what his ceiling is, and he's shown it.

Peluso is starting to show what he can do. I would bet money he is now a regular on the Jets. He wasn't on the 3rd line at times last night by fluke.

IF Pavelec = Montoya. IF (because while Pav's sample size is HUGE, Montoya's is TINY) then what is the problem with splitting the games? At LEAST give Montoya the start after a shutout and see what he can do. It seems ridiculous to me to continually ignore history and expect something new to happen.

 

[garret9]

I personally believe Pavs > Monty... but not nearly or even close to enough to be splitting the games up like they have.

 

[Savagestevo]

He's probably overrated, but I believe he should be given more starts as he isn't really much of a step down from Pavelec, if one at all, and giving Pavelec less starts might mean he is better due to more rest and/or motivate him to try to win the majority of the starts back. Obviously riding Pavelec like this is not working and I don't believe it's sending a very good message if Noel is talking about accountability yet Pavelec gets a bunch of starts regardless, also how you assume he doesn't start Montoya much because he doesn't trust him, yet he still trusts Pavelec after incredibly poor play.

 

[cbcwpg]

I personally believe Pavs > Monty... but not nearly or even close to enough to be splitting the games up like they have.

I also believe Pavs > Monty ( other than stick handling where Pavs is the worst ) but I still want the Jets to be doing....is in fact "splitting" . Giving Montoya 1 out of every 10 games is not really "splitting" by my definition. And no , it doesn't have to be 50-50 either, but Montoya should get at least 20 games and if he can't play adequately in those games, get rid of him and get another backup.

IMO I think salary is having a lot to do with this. Because Pavs makes so much more than Montoya, the Jets feel they have to play him 90% of the time to justify his salary.

 

[Gm0ney]

I also believe Pavs > Monty ( other than stick handling where Pavs is the worst ) but I still want the Jets to be doing....is in fact "splitting" . Giving Montoya 1 out of every 10 games is not really "splitting" by my definition. And no , it doesn't have to be 50-50 either, but Montoya should get at least 20 games and if he can't play adequately in those games, get rid of him and get another backup.

IMO I think salary is having a lot to do with this. Because Pavs makes so much more than Montoya, the Jets feel they have to play him 90% of the time to justify his salary.

He was making a lot less in 2011-12 and he still got in 67 starts (8th in the league ahead of Price, Fleury, Miller, Lundquist, Brodeur).

 

[Yukon Joe]

Is it a universal rule that the fan's favourite player on a struggling team is the backup goalie? I suggest it is (and swill humbly call it the Yukon Joe Rule).

I know guys are frustrated with Pavelec. I am too.

But there's no magic bullet here. We can't trade Pavs - no one wants him at that cap hit. We don't have the cap space to trade for a top-flight goalie (everyone's favourite trade bait James Remier would put us over the cap).

And Montoya is a career NHL tweener. He's certainly never been a starter, and has never stayed with any organization for long. I know he had a shut out against one of the league's worst offensive teams, but it's only one game.

I guess there's Pasquale down on the Rock, but he's hardly lighting it up in the AHL.

Like it or not, we really are stuck with Pavelec for this year. If we're in contention maybe we can trade for a goalie at the trade deadline. But otherwise we have to wait until the off-season buy him out or trade him. And then of course wonder mightily who our goalie of the future is going to be.

 

[cheswick]

Is it a universal rule that the fan's favourite player on a struggling team is the backup goalie? I suggest it is (and swill humbly call it the Yukon Joe Rule).

I know guys are frustrated with Pavelec. I am too.

But there's no magic bullet here. We can't trade Pavs - no one wants him at that cap hit. We don't have the cap space to trade for a top-flight goalie (everyone's favourite trade bait James Remier would put us over the cap).

And Montoya is a career NHL tweener. He's certainly never been a starter, and has never stayed with any organization for long. I know he had a shut out against one of the league's worst offensive teams, but it's only one game.

I guess there's Pasquale down on the Rock, but he's hardly lighting it up in the AHL.

Like it or not, we really are stuck with Pavelec for this year. If we're in contention maybe we can trade for a goalie at the trade deadline. But otherwise we have to wait until the off-season buy him out or trade him. And then of course wonder mightily who our goalie of the future is going to be.

I think the chances of Pavelec getting bought out in the off-season are almost nil. Mangement has a much higher view of him than many people on these boards.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

I think the chances of Pavelec getting bought out in the off-season are almost nil. Mangement has a much higher view of him than many people on these boards.

not to mention the necessity of having an able replacement before entertaining the thought of a buyout

 

[peg]

Following are the stats for a goalie for the years prior to him getting into the NHL and then finally breaking into the show at the age of 28 (which happens to be Montoya's age). Any guesses who this is? Career back up who should be written off? definitely not worthy of competing for a starting position?


1999–00 Detroit Vipers IHL 36 10 21 3 3.56 .892
2000–01 AIK SEL 43 17 16 10 2.48 .918
2001–02 Kärpät SM-l 32 15 12 5 2.45 —
2002–03 Providence Bruins AHL 35 18 12 5 2.87 .906
2002–03 Boston Bruins NHL 4 3 1 0 3.00 .907

 

[Yukon Joe]

Following are the stats for a goalie for the years prior to him getting into the NHL and then finally breaking into the show at the age of 28 (which happens to be Montoya's age). Any guesses who this is? Career back up who should be written off? definitely not worthy of competing for a starting position?


1999–00 Detroit Vipers IHL 36 10 21 3 3.56 .892
2000–01 AIK SEL 43 17 16 10 2.48 .918
2001–02 Kärpät SM-l 32 15 12 5 2.45 —
2002–03 Providence Bruins AHL 35 18 12 5 2.87 .906
2002–03 Boston Bruins NHL 4 3 1 0 3.00 .907

Unlike your Tim Thomas example, Al Montoya has already broken into the big show. With a couple of different teams.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I think the chances of Pavelec getting bought out in the off-season are almost nil. Mangement has a much higher view of him than many people on these boards.

I don't know about nil, but I suspect it's rather low. It's a reasonably frugal franchise, and (does quick math) spending $7.8 million for a player to just walk away doesn't sound like something they're likely to do.

Plus as pointed out it's silly to buy him out without someone to replace him with.

 

[Gm0ney]

I don't know about nil, but I suspect it's rather low. It's a reasonably frugal franchise, and (does quick math) spending $7.8 million for a player to just walk away doesn't sound like something they're likely to do.

Plus as pointed out it's silly to buy him out without someone to replace him with.

If they were going to buy him out, this past summer was the time to do it. Because he was 25, they could've bought him out for 1/3 of his remaining contract: $5,416,667 spread over 8 years ($677k/year - Montoya money. Peanuts.) If they want to buy him out next summer, he's 26 years old so they have to pay 2/3 of his remaining contract: $8,500,000 spread over 6 years ($1,416,666/year).

Unless he completely falls apart, there's zero chance he gets bought out.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

Anton Khudobin
Quel dommage que vous êtes russe
Ce qui aurait pu



fin

 

[scelaton]

underdog stories are exciting and make a great narrative. but, realistically, such a tiny fraction of underdogs actually meet the David vs Goliath narrative that is spun for them.

Did Montoya look good in his only start of the season? Yes.
Was he spectacular? no. it was against the Devils.
Should he get more than 15 starts a year? no.

Is it a universal rule that the fan's favourite player on a struggling team is the backup goalie? I suggest it is (and swill humbly call it the Yukon Joe Rule).

I know guys are frustrated with Pavelec. I am too.

But there's no magic bullet here. We can't trade Pavs - no one wants him at that cap hit. We don't have the cap space to trade for a top-flight goalie (everyone's favourite trade bait James Remier would put us over the cap).
And Montoya is a career NHL tweener. He's certainly never been a starter, and has never stayed with any organization for long. I know he had a shut out against one of the league's worst offensive teams, but it's only one game.

I continue to think we need to give Montoya a legitimate opportunity, ASAP. The characterizations of him as a David to Pavelec's Goliath are unfair, given Montoya's skills and the fact that that Pavs has never been a Goliath in the first place.
Here is a post that I made in the wake of Montoya's re-signing this summer. Nothing has changed other than Pavelev continuing to show he is not the quality of goalie who can lift a marginal team over the playoff threshold.
Projecting Pavelec's lifetime ~.907 over the remainder of the season gets us nowhere fast, so the bigger risk is in not giving our only realistic alternative a chance to do the the improbable.

I think this was absolutely the right move by Chevy. Here is why:
1)Speaking of small sample size, Montoya has almost never played enough on a regular basis on any team for us to make a reliable judgement on him. He only had 7 measly starts for the Jets last year! In fact, the only time he has played regularly for in the NHL is for the Islanders--21 games in '11 with a .921 SV%. He was on a roll till Evander concussed him. Ask Reimer how long it takes a goalie to recover and resume peak performance.
2)He has the skills. We all know he was drafted 6th OA, but his skills are also evident in watching him. His positioning is good and he is GREAT HANDLING THE PUCK. This latter attribute is just what the Jets need to get the puck out of their own end.
3) He is cheap. If we can thereby free 1-2 million to get a 2RW and still get decent performance out of Montoya, we'll come out winners.
He deserves a real chance here--20 games minimum--before we pass judgement.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I continue to think we need to give Montoya a legitimate opportunity, ASAP. The characterizations of him as a David to Pavelec's Goliath are unfair, given Montoya's skills and the fact that that Pavs has never been a Goliath in the first place.
Here is a post that I made in the wake of Montoya's re-signing this summer. Nothing has changed other than Pavelev continuing to show he is not the quality of goalie who can lift a marginal team over the playoff threshold.
Projecting Pavelec's lifetime ~.907 over the remainder of the season gets us nowhere fast, so the bigger risk is in not giving our only realistic alternative a chance to do the the improbable.

And then what happens if you play Montoya and he establishes himself as a legit #1 starter?

Sure, it helps us out this year.

But Montoya is a UFA at the end of the year. If he's good enough, he then promptly goes and signs a big contract with someone else (starting goalies are always in demand). Now we're left with Pavelec who hasn't had a lot of starts and whose confidence has been seriously damaged.

 

[scelaton]

And then what happens if you play Montoya and he establishes himself as a legit #1 starter?

Sure, it helps us out this year.

But Montoya is a UFA at the end of the year. If he's good enough, he then promptly goes and signs a big contract with someone else (starting goalies are always in demand). Now we're left with Pavelec who hasn't had a lot of starts and whose confidence has been seriously damaged.

That would be fantastic, as we might actually make the playoffs. Stop getting my hopes up.
As for Pavs, the downside risk of 40-50 starts vs the status quo is pretty low IMO.

 

[TonyDay]

It's been said but...

Montoya deserves to at least get the average number of starts that a backup would get...

I fear/suspect that he won't get that.

 

[truck]

I don't know about nil, but I suspect it's rather low. It's a reasonably frugal franchise, and (does quick math) spending $7.8 million for a player to just walk away doesn't sound like something they're likely to do.

Plus as pointed out it's silly to buy him out without someone to replace him with.

Anton Khudobin could have been a nice replacement.

 

[knorthern knight]

Both have identical career sv%
Allot around here thinks it's the end all be all

Montoya is no better then Pavelec

Lies, damn lies, and hockey statistics. GIVEN THE SAME NUMBER OF SHOTS AGAINST they let in the same number of goals, BUT...

• Montoya doesn't give up near as many rebounds, so he experiences fewer shots against
• Montoya also handles the puck better with his stick, passing better to his teammates, resulting in fewer chances, and shots, for the opponents

Cutting down shots against is just as effective at reducing GAA as a better SV%.

 

[knorthern knight]

And then what happens if you play Montoya and he establishes himself as a legit #1 starter?

Sure, it helps us out this year.

But Montoya is a UFA at the end of the year. If he's good enough, he then promptly goes and signs a big contract with someone else (starting goalies are always in demand).

• For one, we have a playoff season, something that the Thrashers/Jets never experienced with him in goal
• Secondly, a legitimate starting goalie UFA deserves a good contract, so yeah, pay Montoya accordingly.
• Use a compliance buyout on Pavelec, and don't forget that Jokinen is UFA this summer

Now we're left with Pavelec who hasn't had a lot of starts and whose confidence has been seriously damaged.

Instead we're left with Pavelec, who has had a lot of starts, and whose confidence has been seriously damaged.

 

[JetsFan815]

Watching Montoya handle the puck is a thing of beauty. Having him in the goal is like having an extra defenseman back there. It pi$$es me off the so much that he's being kept down by the coaching staff. It's a situation not unlike you see in real life where a person (coworker or friend) works his butt off at work yet never seems to get that promotion and position that the subpar guy at work does. The hardworking guy trying to prove his chops is being kept down by the man.

 

[peter sullivan]

Montoya is not underrated. He was drafted 9 years ago and has played a grand total of 64 NHL hockey games. There is a reason for that.

Our starting goalie is sub-par and our back-up is as well....

that being said, he should play at least 20-25 games for us. Pavalec needs rest and he also needs to be pushed. We cant have the scenario where the back-up is perceived as only being used in throw away games....that is what exists now.

We have tried for three years the whole, 'Pavalec has to play every game' thing....its time to try the 'Pavalec should only play 3/4 of the games' thing and see if it makes him better....we know what we get with the first scenario.

In my opinion, if we are going to tie our wagon to Pavalec, we need a back-up who can push him. His numbers are not an aberration....they are absolutely consistent over several years...he is what they say he is....the sooner we accept it and rectify that issue the sooner we will be a competitive team....he is simply not good enough to warrant the number of starts he gets....

 

[Mud Turtle]

Lies, damn lies, and hockey statistics. GIVEN THE SAME NUMBER OF SHOTS AGAINST they let in the same number of goals, BUT...

• Montoya doesn't give up near as many rebounds, so he experiences fewer shots against
• Montoya also handles the puck better with his stick, passing better to his teammates, resulting in fewer chances, and shots, for the opponents

Cutting down shots against is just as effective at reducing GAA as a better SV%.

This is an excellent point Northern Knight. How much does it help a team who has a goaltender who gives up less rebounds and can handle the puck well? Even if his save percentage is the same.

Hmmm.

If it's a difference of 4 shots a game, that's more than 30 extra goals per year.

How many extra losses does that add up to?

Answer in our case: In the playoffs vs out of the playoffs.

 

[Skidooboy]

I like Wins. great stat. That's the point of the game after all. Does the team win with that goalie in net.

So I looked at wins vs losses over each goalies career. I used hockeydb.com numbers to to go as far back as I could get.

I think Ties and s/o losses are games your goalie as to help keep you in, so I added them to the win column. Then to put it all on the same page I simply divided the losses by the wins

then I ran a similar comparison on a guy I figure is one of the best. then I ran it on a guy I figured IS the Best.

Pavs 238 wins vs 180 losses 0.756302521

Monty 205 vs 108 0.526829268

Tukka Rask 214 vs 111 0.518691589

Pat Roy 714-375 0.525210084

Across the entirety of their careers Monty wins(or is "in the game") more. no matter what team or level. The team Monty plays for wins more than the team Pavs plays for.

And the company Monty keeps is pretty good. A heck of a lot better than I expected. A LOT BETTER.

Ps. I also ran it counting ties for losses. same results Monty was in the ballpark and Pavs was far away.