is Al Montoya under rated?

Discussion in 'Winnipeg Jets' started by Penderstring, Oct 23, 2013.

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  1. Penderstring

    Penderstring Registered User

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    Wasn't this guy a 6th over all pick back in 2004? :help:
     
  2. StronGeer

    StronGeer Registered User

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    I can't recall a game where we went "man, should've started Pavs instead."

    He is solid. Not amazing, not awful, but solid.
     
  3. wpgsilver

    wpgsilver Registered User

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    If anything he's overrated here.

    But that's cause Pavs is ****.
     
  4. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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    Draft spot doesn't correlate very well to good goaltending:

    example
     
  5. Jet

    Jet Resident Whipping Boy

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    I wish we could see more of him to get a more accurate assessment of his ability.
     
  6. rehf

    rehf Fueled by Maurice

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    I'd actually say he's overrated on the boards.

    Now, don't get me wrong, love the guy, and I'd love, love, LOVE to see Montoya play more so we can evaluate how he is.

    I like to think someone challenging Pav for the #1 spot would increase his desire to want to be a better netminder.

    But do I think he's the long term answer for replacing Pavelec? (if we need to, that is...) No.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2013
  7. King Woodballs

    King Woodballs Captain Awesome

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    He has played 10 years pro and on 3 NHL teams (been in 4 organizations)
    More then half of which was in the AHL

    I think everyone knows his ability by now.
     
  8. AlphaLackey

    AlphaLackey Registered User

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    Everyone except Claude Noël.
     
  9. King Woodballs

    King Woodballs Captain Awesome

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    Both have identical career sv%
    Allot around here thinks it's the end all be all

    Montoya is no better then Pavelec
     
  10. Mud Turtle

    Mud Turtle Registered User

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    OK, simple question.

    Let's say Pavelec is a true #1 starting goalie in the NHL right now.

    How many NHL teams would give up a #1 center, a #1 winger or a #1 defenseman in a trade for Pavelec?

    Answer: None.

    Let's face it. He's not good enough, despite lots of practice, to be a starting goaltender in this league.

    He and Montoya are both decent back-ups in the NHL. That's what we have.

    When you only have two back-ups, what do you do? I think you give them equal opportunity and you ride the hot hand and the guy who has confidence. Simple as that.

    AND, you keep your eyes open for a trade until your prospects mature.
     
  11. trebendan

    trebendan Registered User

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    I agree 100%. I'd like to see Noel use the "win-stay in" philosophy. At the rate Noel is using Montoya, he'll play 10 games this season. That's not enough, and far too many for Pavelec.
     
  12. King Woodballs

    King Woodballs Captain Awesome

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    Most teams wouldn't give up what you are talking about for quick, lundqvist, Price or anyone else for that matter.

    So the point is moot.
     
  13. cheswick

    cheswick Non-registered User

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    Not too sure what you mean by this....
     
  14. cbcwpg

    cbcwpg Registered User

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    There is a reason someone like Montoya has never been really entrusted to be a starter in the NHL. In the minds of most NHL teams, he just isn't good enough. But having said that.... If you play a game and get a 3-0 shutout, then you play the next game, without question... and you keep playing until you have a bad game.

    The Jets do not have a superstar in net that should be playing 70 games a season. They just don't. And this isn't Montoya's or Pav's fault... IMO neither one will ever take their game to that elite level and that's just how it is. So if these are the two guys you are stuck with and neither will every be elite and deserve all the starts.... then you make it a competition.

    I don't think you necessarily have to win, but if you play well, you stay in until you have an off game. And you make it very clear to both goalies that this is what you are doing.
     
  15. peg

    peg Registered User

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    I posted this last night on another thread:

    I think Montoya's pedigree is under appreciated here. He is a former first round draft pick, 6th overall. In the two seasons before his concussion he had a 2.08 and a 2.39 goals against average with save percentages of .925 and .921. He is known to be an excellent puck handler, a difficiency in Pav's game that often gets us in trouble. I am 100% in favour of letting him play and developing a healthy goaltending rivalry on the Jets.
     
  16. King Woodballs

    King Woodballs Captain Awesome

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    Here is some added context to these numbers.
    Lots of preaching around here about sample size.
    Those were in 5 games and 20 games respectively.
     
  17. theamazingchris

    theamazingchris Registered User

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    Very important. In those same three years he posted .890, .904, and .891 in the AHL. Plus he was not all that impressive over 30 games with the Islanders the year before he came here. Now, these are also small sample sizes, but once you start to average them all out the picture is not particularly flattering. That isn't to say he's terrible, but he certainly has done nothing to prove he is anything other than a backup goalie. So if he keeps posting good numbers over a number of games this year, I'll begin to entertain the possibility, but that will require a number of starts and a number of good performances. We're not there yet.
     
  18. surixon

    surixon Registered User

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    There is no harm to giving him more games. I feel that it would be beneficial to give Pavs more time off. He started off the year playing solid positionally but has lately slipped in that regard, one has to wonder if fatigue is not a factor there.
     
  19. theamazingchris

    theamazingchris Registered User

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    If fatigue is a factor so early, than we're screwed. What'll he look like come spring? :help:
     
  20. HannuJ

    HannuJ Registered User

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    not Jet.

    dude loves his underdogs. Peluso, Montoya.

    underdog stories are exciting and make a great narrative. but, realistically, such a tiny fraction of underdogs actually meet the David vs Goliath narrative that is spun for them.

    Did Montoya look good in his only start of the season? Yes.
    Was he spectacular? no. it was against the Devils.
    Should he get more than 15 starts a year? no.
     
  21. King Woodballs

    King Woodballs Captain Awesome

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    I am a big Peluso supporter myself.
    Kid is still pretty young and hasnt got a great shot at keeping a NHL job. Worth giving a shot.

    Montoya on the other hand has had 10 years to get it together and hasnt.
    I said I would like to see 15-20 starts this year.
     
  22. truck

    truck Registered User

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    Is Al underrated? Generally speaking, probably not. I think perhaps the coaching staff underrates him though. That is to say I don't think there is much of a difference between him and Pav and the coaching staff seemingly rates him very differently.
     
  23. cheswick

    cheswick Non-registered User

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    If that's the case you'd have to lump mangement in there too. They pay Pavs over 6 times more than they do Monty
     
  24. Channelcat

    Channelcat Registered User

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    Some comparables in terms of cap hit. Chevy must cringe at this.

    14. Hiller, Jonas » G ANA 31 2010 2014 4 $4,500,000
    15. Brodeur, Martin » G NJD 41 2012 2014 2 $4,500,000
    16. Schneider, Cory » G NJD 27 2012 2015 3 $4,000,000
    17. Pavelec, Ondrej WPG 26 2012 2017 5 $3,900,000
    18. Niemi, Antti » G SJS 30 2011 2015 4 $3,800,000
    19. Halak, Jaroslav » G STL 28 2010 2014 4 $3,750,000
    20. Thomas, Tim » G FLA 39 2013 2014 1 $3,750,000
    21. Dubnyk, Devan » G EDM 27 2012 2014 2 $3,500,000
    22. Backstrom, Niklas G MIN 35 2013 2016 3 $3,416,667
    23. Nabokov, Evgeni G NYI 38 2013 2014 1 $3,250,000
    24. Anderson, Craig » G OTT 32 2011 2015 4 $3,187,500
    25. Fasth, Viktor » G ANA 31 2013 2015 2 $2,900,000
    26. Bernier, Jonathan G TOR 25 2013 2015 2 $2,900,000
    27. Varlamov, Semyon G COL 25 2011 2014 3 $2,833,333
    28. Ramo, Karri » G CGY 27 2013 2015 2 $2,750,000
    29. Crawford, Corey »G CHI 28 2011 2014 3 $2,666,667
    30. Neuvirth, Michal » G WAS 25 2013 2015 2 $2,500,000
    31. Bishop, Ben » G TBL 26 2013 2015 2 $2,300,000
    32. Vokoun, Tomas » G PIT 37 2012 2014 2 $2,000,000
    33. Khabibulin, Nikolai »G CHI 40 2013 2014 1 $2,000,000
    34. Harding, Josh » G MIN 29 2012 2015 3 $1,900,000
    35. Holtby, Braden » G WAS 24 2013 2015 2 $1,850,000
    36. Reimer, James » G TOR 25 2011 2014 3 $1,800,000
    37. Elliott, Brian » G STL 28 2012 2014 2 $1,800,000
    38. Lindback, Anders »G TBL 25 2012 2014 2 $1,800,000
    39. Andersen, Frederik G ANA 24 2012 2014 2 $1,775,000
     
  25. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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    It isn't an end all to be all but it is pretty good.

    There are two things to think about for context when comparing Montoya and Pavelec:

    1) backups tend to have lower because relief games pull down their save percentage (probably not by much though)

    2) Montoya's even strength save percentage is lower than Pavelec's. ES SV% is better predictor than regular Sv%.


    Yes, I just created more mystery in making one thing better and one thing worse for Montoya haha.
     

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