Discussion in 'Winnipeg Jets' started by Penderstring, Oct 23, 2013.
Wasn't this guy a 6th over all pick back in 2004?
I can't recall a game where we went "man, should've started Pavs instead."
He is solid. Not amazing, not awful, but solid.
If anything he's overrated here.
But that's cause Pavs is ****.
Draft spot doesn't correlate very well to good goaltending:
I wish we could see more of him to get a more accurate assessment of his ability.
I'd actually say he's overrated on the boards.
Now, don't get me wrong, love the guy, and I'd love, love, LOVE to see Montoya play more so we can evaluate how he is.
I like to think someone challenging Pav for the #1 spot would increase his desire to want to be a better netminder.
But do I think he's the long term answer for replacing Pavelec? (if we need to, that is...) No.
He has played 10 years pro and on 3 NHL teams (been in 4 organizations)
More then half of which was in the AHL
I think everyone knows his ability by now.
Everyone except Claude NoÃ«l.
Both have identical career sv%
Allot around here thinks it's the end all be all
Montoya is no better then Pavelec
OK, simple question.
Let's say Pavelec is a true #1 starting goalie in the NHL right now.
How many NHL teams would give up a #1 center, a #1 winger or a #1 defenseman in a trade for Pavelec?
Let's face it. He's not good enough, despite lots of practice, to be a starting goaltender in this league.
He and Montoya are both decent back-ups in the NHL. That's what we have.
When you only have two back-ups, what do you do? I think you give them equal opportunity and you ride the hot hand and the guy who has confidence. Simple as that.
AND, you keep your eyes open for a trade until your prospects mature.
I agree 100%. I'd like to see Noel use the "win-stay in" philosophy. At the rate Noel is using Montoya, he'll play 10 games this season. That's not enough, and far too many for Pavelec.
Most teams wouldn't give up what you are talking about for quick, lundqvist, Price or anyone else for that matter.
So the point is moot.
Not too sure what you mean by this....
There is a reason someone like Montoya has never been really entrusted to be a starter in the NHL. In the minds of most NHL teams, he just isn't good enough. But having said that.... If you play a game and get a 3-0 shutout, then you play the next game, without question... and you keep playing until you have a bad game.
The Jets do not have a superstar in net that should be playing 70 games a season. They just don't. And this isn't Montoya's or Pav's fault... IMO neither one will ever take their game to that elite level and that's just how it is. So if these are the two guys you are stuck with and neither will every be elite and deserve all the starts.... then you make it a competition.
I don't think you necessarily have to win, but if you play well, you stay in until you have an off game. And you make it very clear to both goalies that this is what you are doing.
I posted this last night on another thread:
I think Montoya's pedigree is under appreciated here. He is a former first round draft pick, 6th overall. In the two seasons before his concussion he had a 2.08 and a 2.39 goals against average with save percentages of .925 and .921. He is known to be an excellent puck handler, a difficiency in Pav's game that often gets us in trouble. I am 100% in favour of letting him play and developing a healthy goaltending rivalry on the Jets.
Here is some added context to these numbers.
Lots of preaching around here about sample size.
Those were in 5 games and 20 games respectively.
Very important. In those same three years he posted .890, .904, and .891 in the AHL. Plus he was not all that impressive over 30 games with the Islanders the year before he came here. Now, these are also small sample sizes, but once you start to average them all out the picture is not particularly flattering. That isn't to say he's terrible, but he certainly has done nothing to prove he is anything other than a backup goalie. So if he keeps posting good numbers over a number of games this year, I'll begin to entertain the possibility, but that will require a number of starts and a number of good performances. We're not there yet.
There is no harm to giving him more games. I feel that it would be beneficial to give Pavs more time off. He started off the year playing solid positionally but has lately slipped in that regard, one has to wonder if fatigue is not a factor there.
If fatigue is a factor so early, than we're screwed. What'll he look like come spring?
dude loves his underdogs. Peluso, Montoya.
underdog stories are exciting and make a great narrative. but, realistically, such a tiny fraction of underdogs actually meet the David vs Goliath narrative that is spun for them.
Did Montoya look good in his only start of the season? Yes.
Was he spectacular? no. it was against the Devils.
Should he get more than 15 starts a year? no.
I am a big Peluso supporter myself.
Kid is still pretty young and hasnt got a great shot at keeping a NHL job. Worth giving a shot.
Montoya on the other hand has had 10 years to get it together and hasnt.
I said I would like to see 15-20 starts this year.
Is Al underrated? Generally speaking, probably not. I think perhaps the coaching staff underrates him though. That is to say I don't think there is much of a difference between him and Pav and the coaching staff seemingly rates him very differently.
If that's the case you'd have to lump mangement in there too. They pay Pavs over 6 times more than they do Monty
Some comparables in terms of cap hit. Chevy must cringe at this.
14. Hiller, Jonas Â» G ANA 31 2010 2014 4 $4,500,000
15. Brodeur, Martin Â» G NJD 41 2012 2014 2 $4,500,000
16. Schneider, Cory Â» G NJD 27 2012 2015 3 $4,000,000
17. Pavelec, Ondrej WPG 26 2012 2017 5 $3,900,000
18. Niemi, Antti Â» G SJS 30 2011 2015 4 $3,800,000
19. Halak, Jaroslav Â» G STL 28 2010 2014 4 $3,750,000
20. Thomas, Tim Â» G FLA 39 2013 2014 1 $3,750,000
21. Dubnyk, Devan Â» G EDM 27 2012 2014 2 $3,500,000
22. Backstrom, Niklas G MIN 35 2013 2016 3 $3,416,667
23. Nabokov, Evgeni G NYI 38 2013 2014 1 $3,250,000
24. Anderson, Craig Â» G OTT 32 2011 2015 4 $3,187,500
25. Fasth, Viktor Â» G ANA 31 2013 2015 2 $2,900,000
26. Bernier, Jonathan G TOR 25 2013 2015 2 $2,900,000
27. Varlamov, Semyon G COL 25 2011 2014 3 $2,833,333
28. Ramo, Karri Â» G CGY 27 2013 2015 2 $2,750,000
29. Crawford, Corey Â»G CHI 28 2011 2014 3 $2,666,667
30. Neuvirth, Michal Â» G WAS 25 2013 2015 2 $2,500,000
31. Bishop, Ben Â» G TBL 26 2013 2015 2 $2,300,000
32. Vokoun, Tomas Â» G PIT 37 2012 2014 2 $2,000,000
33. Khabibulin, Nikolai Â»G CHI 40 2013 2014 1 $2,000,000
34. Harding, Josh Â» G MIN 29 2012 2015 3 $1,900,000
35. Holtby, Braden Â» G WAS 24 2013 2015 2 $1,850,000
36. Reimer, James Â» G TOR 25 2011 2014 3 $1,800,000
37. Elliott, Brian Â» G STL 28 2012 2014 2 $1,800,000
38. Lindback, Anders Â»G TBL 25 2012 2014 2 $1,800,000
39. Andersen, Frederik G ANA 24 2012 2014 2 $1,775,000
It isn't an end all to be all but it is pretty good.
There are two things to think about for context when comparing Montoya and Pavelec:
1) backups tend to have lower because relief games pull down their save percentage (probably not by much though)
2) Montoya's even strength save percentage is lower than Pavelec's. ES SV% is better predictor than regular Sv%.
Yes, I just created more mystery in making one thing better and one thing worse for Montoya haha.
Separate names with a comma.