Value of: Increasing draft odds pre-draft

[Michoulicious]

Do you guys remember the 1998 draft? At the time, the Lightning traded Bryan Marchment and David Shaw to the Sharks for Andrei Nazarov and the right to switch first rounders with the Sharks in case they lose the lottery... which they did. That trade allowed them to draft their first franchise player, Vincent Lecavalier

Do you think such kind of trade would be possible nowadays?

Obviously, it would be impossible to insure 100% odds of winning the lottery given the new format, but maybe increase the odds from 11,5-18,5 % to 43,5% and basically ensure a top 3 pick.

Like for this year. Imagine a scenario where Montreal finishes 3rd last in the NHL... We know the draft is in Montreal and local superstar winger to be Lafreniere is projected to go first overall.

How much would it cost to trade pre-lottery for right to switch pick with the first 2 teams? Obviously it would have to be less than the price paid from going 6th OA (worst but improbable scenario possible) to 1st OA in order for it to make sense...

And if Montreal finishes last? Would teams #29 and #30 more inclined to make that kind of trade?

My guess is such a trade will never happen because GMs hate uncertainty and looking silly when they gamble and lose, but I still like the idea. The top 5 looks strong this year, and I don't see the gap being that big between 1 OA (Lafreniere), #2 OA (Byfield) and the rest (Raymond, Perfetti, Rossi, etc).

What are thoughts about it? Would you make such a trade?

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[Pavlikovsky]

Don't think a GM in today's game would do the risk is too big, if you end up on the "losing end" you probably lose your job or their would have to be a lot of conditional agreements depending on how far you jump up or down.

Lets say i'm LA and im 2nd and you're 3rd I'm asking a 2nd LA's choice even if you don't exercise it and if it happens that i'm going all the way down to 6th i'm asking for 1st round pick in 2021 or 2022 also LA's choice and the right to exercise the same thing within 2 years with any 1st you may own.

 

[Michoulicious]

Don't think a GM in today's game would do the risk is too big, if you end up on the "losing end" you probably lose your job or their would have to be a lot of conditional agreements depending on how far you jump up or down.

Lets say i'm LA and im 2nd and you're 3rd I'm asking a 2nd LA's choice even if you don't exercise it and if it happens that i'm going all the way down to 6th i'm asking for 1st round pick in 2021 or 2022 also LA's choice and the right to exercise the same thing within 2 years with any 1st you may own.

A first round pick is too steep of a price IMO. The think with such a trade is you deal in the "now", pre-draft timeframe. Putting conditions post-draft pretty much nullifies the idea of the deal. Might as well just wait for the lottery to play out and pay accordingly.

A #30 team that gives another team right to switch with them if their draft pick is higher has pretty good odds of getting a free asset without giving anything.

For example, if team #30 lets team #29 the opportunity to switch pick with them if they have a better pick for a 2nd round pick, odds of getting the 2nd round pick without giving anything in exchange in the end are pretty big (only 13,5% chance winning #1 OA + whatever odds of getting #2, which I don't think exceed 20%)... And switching #2 for #3 + a 2nd round pick is not bad value at all, depending of the gap you see between #2 and #3.

 

[RogerRoger]

Do you guys remember the 1998 draft? At the time, the Lightning traded Bryan Marchment and David Shaw to the Sharks for Andrei Nazarov and the right to switch first rounders with the Sharks in case they lose the lottery... which they did. That trade allowed them to draft their first franchise player, Vincent Lecavalier

Do you think such kind of trade would be possible nowadays?

Obviously, it would be impossible to insure 100% odds of winning the lottery given the new format, but maybe increase the odds from 11,5-18,5 % to 43,5% and basically ensure a top 3 pick.

Like for this year. Imagine a scenario where Montreal finishes 3rd last in the NHL... We know the draft is in Montreal and local superstar winger to be Lafreniere is projected to go first overall.

How much would it cost to trade pre-lottery for right to switch pick with the first 2 teams? Obviously it would have to be less than the price paid from going 6th OA (worst but improbable scenario possible) to 1st OA in order for it to make sense...

And if Montreal finishes last? Would teams #29 and #30 more inclined to make that kind of trade?

My guess is such a trade will never happen because GMs hate uncertainty and looking silly when they gamble and lose, but I still like the idea. The top 5 looks strong this year, and I don't see the gap being that big between 1 OA (Lafreniere), #2 OA (Byfield) and the rest (Raymond, Perfetti, Rossi, etc).

What are thoughts about it? Would you make such a trade?

It wouldn't happen because the Panthers would lottery protect the pick.

 

[Michoulicious]

It wouldn't happen because the Panthers would lottery protect the pick.

That Kozlov trade did hurt a lot. Can you imagine Florida with Lecavalier and Luongo? Man.

 

[Brodeur]

I'd imagine it'd be tough to do once the season was already in session. As others mentioned, the potential downside would be a little too much compared to what it was in 1998. When the conditional pick was offered, Tampa was almost a lock to have the worst record so San Jose knew the worst case scenario was picking #2. Now the worst team has a 50.6% chance of getting bumped to #4. In some draft years that might not be as big a gap but in certain years that's the difference between Ovechkin/Malkin or Barker/Ladd.

The rules were different in 1995-2013 as well (you can thank Penny Hardaway and the Orlando Magic for that). The current lottery odds are rather chaotic, so that's why you see so many more picks now having some form of lottery protections.

A different route however might be what Rick Dudley did in at the 2002 Draft. So Phil Esposito was Tampa's outgoing GM when the Marchment deal was made and Dudley was his successor in Tampa but found himself GM of Florida shortly thereafer. So perhaps Dudley borrowed the idea of buying additional lottery odds for 2003.

In 2002, Florida had the top pick and was set to take Jay Bouwmeester. But then Dudley got creative and still landed his guy:

- Florida traded #1 to Columbus for #3 and the option to swap 1st round picks in 2003. Florida basically acquired Columbus' odds and/or chance to move up a couple spots. Columbus apparently was spooked by Philadelphia trading up to #4 on the day of the Draft with the rumor that they were close on a deal to use that pick to move up to #2 for Rick Nash.

- Florida gave Atlanta 3rd+4th round picks to promise not to pick Jay Bouwmeester with their pick (presumably this matched what Philadelphia had been offering). Atlanta had been set on Kari Lehtonen.

I think a trade like that (ie, for next year's draft rather than the upcoming one) might be easier to pull off. But still, given the 'new' rules/odds it's tough to want to trade your chance for a middling draft pick. Even the 10th place team has an 11.3% chance of getting into the top 3.

 

[Michoulicious]

I'd imagine it'd be tough to do once the season was already in session. As others mentioned, the potential downside would be a little too much compared to what it was in 1998. When the conditional pick was offered, Tampa was almost a lock to have the worst record so San Jose knew the worst case scenario was picking #2. Now the worst team has a 50.6% chance of getting bumped to #4. In some draft years that might not be as big a gap but in certain years that's the difference between Ovechkin/Malkin or Barker/Ladd.

The rules were different in 1995-2013 as well (you can thank Penny Hardaway and the Orlando Magic for that). The current lottery odds are rather chaotic, so that's why you see so many more picks now having some form of lottery protections.

A different route however might be what Rick Dudley did in at the 2002 Draft. So Phil Esposito was Tampa's outgoing GM when the Marchment deal was made and Dudley was his successor in Tampa but found himself GM of Florida shortly thereafer. So perhaps Dudley borrowed the idea of buying additional lottery odds for 2003.

In 2002, Florida had the top pick and was set to take Jay Bouwmeester. But then Dudley got creative and still landed his guy:

- Florida traded #1 to Columbus for #3 and the option to swap 1st round picks in 2003. Florida basically acquired Columbus' odds and/or chance to move up a couple spots. Columbus apparently was spooked by Philadelphia trading up to #4 on the day of the Draft with the rumor that they were close on a deal to use that pick to move up to #2 for Rick Nash.

- Florida gave Atlanta 3rd+4th round picks to promise not to pick Jay Bouwmeester with their pick (presumably this matched what Philadelphia had been offering). Atlanta had been set on Kari Lehtonen.

I think a trade like that (ie, for next year's draft rather than the upcoming one) might be easier to pull off. But still, given the 'new' rules/odds it's tough to want to trade your chance for a middling draft pick. Even the 10th place team has an 11.3% chance of getting into the top 3.

I see what you mean. Still, even if you're not 100% sure, if you are somehow able to get the 2 other teams to allow you to switch, even if you only have 43,5% odds of winning #1 OA, you are pretty much a lock to pick in the top 3, which is worth something if you really like the top 3 players over the rest. I'm not sure exactly what are the odds of none of the worst 3 teams picking in the top 3.

Happened in 2017, but I think its the only time since the new format.

 

[Sparksrus3]

Do you guys remember the 1998 draft? At the time, the Lightning traded Bryan Marchment and David Shaw to the Sharks for Andrei Nazarov and the right to switch first rounders with the Sharks in case they lose the lottery... which they did. That trade allowed them to draft their first franchise player, Vincent Lecavalier

Do you think such kind of trade would be possible nowadays?

Obviously, it would be impossible to insure 100% odds of winning the lottery given the new format, but maybe increase the odds from 11,5-18,5 % to 43,5% and basically ensure a top 3 pick.

Like for this year. Imagine a scenario where Montreal finishes 3rd last in the NHL... We know the draft is in Montreal and local superstar winger to be Lafreniere is projected to go first overall.

How much would it cost to trade pre-lottery for right to switch pick with the first 2 teams? Obviously it would have to be less than the price paid from going 6th OA (worst but improbable scenario possible) to 1st OA in order for it to make sense...

And if Montreal finishes last? Would teams #29 and #30 more inclined to make that kind of trade?

My guess is such a trade will never happen because GMs hate uncertainty and looking silly when they gamble and lose, but I still like the idea. The top 5 looks strong this year, and I don't see the gap being that big between 1 OA (Lafreniere), #2 OA (Byfield) and the rest (Raymond, Perfetti, Rossi, etc).

What are thoughts about it? Would you make such a trade?

I'll be back after a 6 pack. Maybe it will read easier then

 

[Martin Skoula]

You should be allowed to trade for other teams lottery combinations. Leave the conditional pick stuff out of it, just trade the odds directly. If you already have your franchise players and are drafting for depth, the extra 2nd you can pick up every year would be more worth it than a 10% chance of picking 3rd instead of 6th. Likewise if you have the depth but need to get a 1OA caliber player, trading a few 2nds to boost yourself to 50+% odds is obviously worth it.