Just copied the OP's list.
Corey Perry - I don't think so. If his career is cut short from today on, maybe, but I think he will have a steady decline soon. I think you need to win multiple awards or score at a fairly constant rate, like Sundin. He does have the Richard, so he will be in discussion, and if he wins one more award he's a lock.
Patrice Bergeron - He needs to win the Selke a few more times, IMO, or a few more cups. Not unreasonable though.
Jonathan Toews - Yep. I don't think he's a lock, but like Sundin, he does everything so well, and scores at fairly steady pace. I'm gonna assume he stay healthy. If he starts to slide in health, that would certainly jeopardize his chances.
Patrick Kane - I think it's a given that he scores enough points to put him there. He also has the Conn Smythe, that helps. Again, like Toews, if he suddenly declines in play for any reason, it's not as clear.
Anze Kopitar - Only if he stays at a high scoring pace. I don't think it's as simple as Kane or Toews. He needs more hardware, IMO.
Jonathan Quick - Like most on this list it all comes down to pacing over a career. If he ends up with 400+ wins, then yes, easily. More hardware=more chances.
Carey Price - Same as Quik
Ryan Suter - No hardware, no high scoring, no chance. There is at least 30 #1's in the league, that isn't special enough, IMO.
Zach Parise - I would bet no. His scoring has dipped that last few years, he has no hardware, and is signed until Christ comes home to a defensive team.
Shea Weber - Yep. But that's assuming he does finally win a Norris. Otherwise, maybe...? He is a high scoring Dman
John Tavares - I would bet a lot on yes. No real reason yet, but I'm assuming he at least scores 500g, and 1100 points. That's enough, considering it will likely be well earned, on his behalf. Not gifted scoring by some other, better player.
Erik Karlsson - Norris - yep. Scoring - Yep. ONly if he plummets will he be held out.
Claude Giroux - He'll have to get back to scoring at a regular, high pace.
Sidney Crosby - Already worthy.
Evgeni Malkin - Already worthy
Phil Kessel - He'll have to maintain his high scoring pace for at least 7 more years, or win some real hardware. He's in the same boat as Kopitar or Tavares as far as what they've earned so far, ... nothing yet.
Alexander Ovechkin - Already worthy
Steven Stamkos - Already worthy
Other notables
Jonathan Bernier - This is his first year as an elite G, and I only bring him up as we are Leaf fans, but if he stays at this level for another 10 seasons, he's a lock, IMO, but that is a looong way off for now.
PK Subban - I think he will. He has the drive, the physical commitment to excercise, and he is highly talented. I don't think his Norris season is a one-off, shortened season thing. We'll see it again.
Alex Pieterangelo - I think we'll see him win a Norris or 2 when his career is over, and he is on a team that plays playoff dominating hockey. I'm guessing they win the Cup real soon, and he is a huge part of that. Should've been a leaf
Drew Doughty - I think he will sneak in after a few seasons of being on the ballot. He has a long way to go until he gets into what I consider a Dman's prime, their 30's, and he is already a Cup winner and Olympic Gold champ, all while being a top D on both teams.
Ryan Getzlaf - He'll need to level off as a top scorer, year in and year out, and he hasn't yet. Combined with a lack of any hardware and Sid, OV, Malkin and Stamkos stealing all the Hart and Art Ross trophies over his prime, I doubt he gets there. Maybe as a player the NHL wants to celebrate to pump up the smaller market team.
Nicklas Backstrom - If he maintains his scoring pace of PPG over most of his career, he should have the numbers.
Taylor Hall - Has all the natural skill to be a HOF player, if his body holds out to give him a long career.