Important Data missing from Prospect Evaluation ...

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by hawksfan50, Feb 15, 2011.

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  1. hawksfan50

    hawksfan50 Registered User

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    ..at least for public information ...this is in regard to fACE-OFF stats which are not
    published by the WHL and OHL on their websites...so--especially in evaluating CENTRES --how can we know (maybe the teams keep their own internal stats on this in those leagues and reveal them to the NHl teams --or maybe the scouts take theirown samples of such data on centres they scout)--but WE 'amateur" draftniks cannot get this vital assessment data which could be a very important decider among several alternatives who might be avaibale at certain selection spots.

    How is RNH in the face-off dot? Superior. Average. Poor ? IT could make a big difference in selection alternatives.

    WE know the Q players' face-off stats..THUS though ZACK PHILLIPS is ranked higher than RYAN STROME by central Scouting at mid-term -we know PHILLIPS is just 44% in the face-off dot ...IF STROME is way superior there -then that could make an enormous difference in switching th rankings in several teams eyes...NOT that face-offs alone would do it -but if in all other factors the ranking scores come close --face-=offs could be a decider.. The fact is the OHL does not give the face-off stories -so I have no idea if Stome is Superior ,average or poor /below average at winning draws..If Strome is special at draws and RNH is poor -then maybe Strome rises even ahead of RNH.. The point is -without this criteria-especially for centres,it is difficult to establish target selection preferences unless other factors clearly indicate a BPA ranking ..but if considering all the other criteria it is relatively close,then obviously face-offs could be a big deciding item.

    Certainly we know that MIKKA ZIBANEJAD (perhaps a 12-19 pick?) and JOACHIM NERMARK (a late first to 40 pick?) excell at face-offs among their Swedish Jr. peer groups..That fact alone would not push them into the same higher class than RNH,Couturier ,Strome or Phillips as most "conensus " rankings have them --but
    still,face-off acumen SHOULD be of great importance -especially to teams lacking depth of centres with such ability on the draws. Perhaps some teams drafting top ten would consider trading their picks down if they could get either immediate help plus a first rounder or two firsts back and still draft a Zibanejad or a Nermark with the later pick or one of the later picks ...

    Anyway-it would be great if the OHL and WHL would start showing face-off stats.
    Unfortunately we do not have those for comparing to prospects where we do have such stats... (though as I said-maybe privately the teams in those leagues keep such ststs and release them to the nHl scouts,or the scouting orgs /and or NHL team scouts do their own private stats on "targets" they try to rank for the draft.


    Are face-off that important? YES! Just ask the Blackhawks--who except for Toews excellence on draws,find that everyone else they have used at centre is not very adept at it..for a team supposedly trying to play a possession game,starting off lossing possession forces chasing ,tales away energy,takes away opportunity to score-it is not optimal ...one would like to win a lot more draws.

    SO I call out the OHL and WHL to start showing us the face-off stats to get a true picture of the "effectiveness" of their draft-elogible centre prospects.
     
  2. Sensfanman

    Sensfanman Registered User

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    There's a vast gap across all levels (NHL included) in publicly available data for player evaluation. Vast. Faceoffs should be the least of your problems.
     
  3. Blind Gardien

    Blind Gardien nexus of the crisis

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    Agreed. Also... faceoffs are such a learned/experience-based skill that I don't think there's any meaning at all in evaluating 17-18 year olds based on this. You draft a player based on a host of other factors. Then if he's deficient in the faceoff circle, you work on that.
    :dunno:
     
  4. leoleo3535

    leoleo3535 Registered User

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    The people that need these stats have them.
     
  5. Z-Diddy

    Z-Diddy Registered User

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    If you wanted to get into the ear of some of these sources you may have to talk to teams backup tenders as some have this duty for their team as well as working the gate, it can be considered a learned skill not completely god given

    On a side note did you have trouble with caps lock during that post, I felt like I was being shouted at the whole time
     
  6. R S

    R S @avs_tweets

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    Wonder where you went hawskfan50. Glad to see you are still alive and thinking about weird, nonsensical ideas.
     
  7. Brodeur

    Brodeur Registered User

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    Faceoffs always struck me as a skill that could be acquired/improved along with time and diligence. In particular, the first guy I thought of was Crosby. Since he's joined the NHL, here are his faceoff numbers:

    05-06: 45.5%
    06-07: 49.8%
    07-08: 51.4%
    08-09: 51.3%
    09-10: 55.9%
    10-11: 55.7%

    Even looking back at a guy like Travis Zajac who's improved almost every year. Devils assistant coach Adam Oates was always dominant in the dot when he was a player, so perhaps he's teaching Zajac some new techniques this year as well:

    06-07: 46.9%
    07-08: 51.2%
    08-09: 53.1%
    09-10: 52.9%
    10-11: 56.6%

    I know you're into stats and performance scouting. At least with regards to faceoffs, I'd almost be more concerned about whether the guy was coachable in that regard moreso than whether he's winning draws off of junior guys who won't get close to the NHL.
     
  8. hawksfan50

    hawksfan50 Registered User

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    Well-you are giving one example of an improved FO efficiency...HOWEVER the truth is that MOST centres do not improve this ability .IF it were that easy to improve --then why is Chicago suffering so much (except for Toews of course whgo is very good on face-offs) this year? Sharp -when he plays centre has not been good at it..Bolland is poor at it ..Dowell is also below par at it ..Result Chicago's vaunted puck possesion style is behind the 8 ball right off most draws (except for when Toews takes them) -they must chase to get the puck back ...

    Really -winning face-offs is very important--for puck possession in the o-zone.for Pk sucess in the D-zone... therefore it is imporant to know whether a centre prospect for the raft excels against his peer group at face-offs or not ...Can a player improve-yes-but usually it is the exception,not the rule... As I said--it is not the only criteria on which to rank centres ofcourse-but it could be a big factor in deciding between 2 closely ranked centres within a "tier" ...If 2 or 3 centres are in the top 5 or 6,it could be a decider item for teams ...If 3-4 centres are in the 11-20 tier --again maybe face-offs help decide who you want to target..It won't be the only factor in the rankimg but if you think 2 guys are very close --face-off prowes could be the difference-maker in ranking them as preferred targets. You could "hope' to make player "A" be as good as player "B" at faceoffs by teaching and improving him--but there is no guarantee of improvement ...better to draft what you know already is
    one of a prospects beter attributes. IF "A" is only winning draws at 45% and "B" is winning them at 63% and if "A" is only ranked a couple of spots ahead of "B" -both considered in the same tier of several players-then maybe you target "B" ahead of "A" even if "A" was slightly ahead of "B" based on all other criteria..Of cousrse if you rank "A" as so far ahead of "B" on those other criteria such that you are sure he is in a higher tier of top prospects while "B" is only in the 2nd tier group -then face-off acumen alone willnot decide ranking ...but if the "gap" between them is not that certain -if the alternatives are in the same tier of prospects you might have a chance of selecting-then face-off acumen might help decide among the alternatives.
    I would rather not rely on a "hope" I could improve a prospect at face-offs to a
    certainty that at the same age among 2 very closely ranked prospects--that I can see that one excels at draws whreas the other is below par at this vital ability.

    Anyway -all I am asking is that the OHL and WHL start publishing face-off stats -if anything just to equal the info we get from the QMJHL and from some of the euro JR. leagues..
     
  9. S E P H

    S E P H @SEPH_WHL

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    Stop drinking the water Hawks50. It's bad for your brain cells.
     
  10. leoleo3535

    leoleo3535 Registered User

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    I doubt very much if the OHL & WHL lay awake at night worrying about not providing you with faceoff stats.
    The people that need those stats have them and if you wanted them you could easily watch the games and see for yourself.
     
  11. Bjindaho

    Bjindaho Registered User

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    This thread is bad on so many levels.

    1) If any scout suggested to draft/not draft based on faceoff stats, he`d be fired on the spot. The stat is absolutely 100% useless by itself. It has no transferability whatsoever league to league meaning that 44% in the Q CANNOT be compared to any number at all in any other league (including Jr C).

    2) Zack Phillips has excellent faceoff technique. He needs strength and dedicated faceoff practices to get better, but his technique is very good.

    3) Zack Phillips doesn`t even project as a center at the NHL level. Because of his skating, he is likely to be moved to the wing. On the other hand, there is a decent chance that his winger Huberdeau plays center in the NHL. Huberdeau is a natural center who doesn`t play it in junior because he is too thin.

    4) Faceoff struggles for Chicago - it takes around 6 weeks to make a non-center respectable at faceoffs, and can take over a year if ever to make them capable of being a 50+ percent faceoff man. It is an easier skill to teach in junior, to give them their reps early. Also, guys with excellent hand-eye co-ordination usually make for pretty decent guys on the draw, because even if their technique sucks, they are still adept at making contact with the puck.

    5) And for that ridiculous notion that faceoffs can`t be improved...Crosby won 49.8% of his draws his last year in the Q. He is now well above 50 in the NHL. Guys improve, but whether their faceoff % goes up depends on a myriad of factors such as who they are facing (Phillips probably has close to 150 draws against the top 2 faceoff guys in the Q), winger support (Saint John rarely supports their center well, so most wins have to be clean), where the draw is (most players have a disparity between offensive, neutral and D zone faceoff win%), situation (a faceoff at the end of your shift because it is late in the game is much harder to win than one at the beginning of your shift), if there is a play on (if the coach calls a play, there might be specific instructions to the center, including sometimes to intentionally lose), did he win the puck forward (in the Q, if a guy wins the puck forward with the intention of lifting the support wingers stick, it is a loss even if the center executes the play perfectly), will (does the center even care if he wins? If the score is outlandish, the time is low and the team has an offensive zone faceoff, most centers won`t actually try to win the faceoff).
     
  12. Brandinho

    Brandinho deng xiaoping gang

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    I love how you managed to bring up RNH multiple times in a thread about the public availability of faceoff stats.
     
  13. gifted88

    gifted88 Dante the poet

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    I agree that it would be nice to have faceoff stats in the WHL and OHL. But it's not like it makes a huge difference or anything when evaluating prospects. As was said earlier, you could just go to the games and see for yourself, or head over to the WHL/OHL section and ask people who follow the teams.
     

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