Value of: Ilya Samsonov to the Avs

[JoemAvs]

Samsonov is RFA and seems to have fallen out of favor with the Caps. Between him and Vanecek, Caps fans mostly seem to want to go either with Vanecek or bring in someone completely different.

I think a year or two ago, the Avs were rumored to be heavily interested in him.
Former first round pick that was always said to have very high upside that has struggled somewhat in the past 2 years.

So if Kuemper gets paid by someone else (which seems somewhat likely. Maybe even by the Caps). What would it take to get him to Denver?

We have Francouz as a somewhat legit 1b that can be paired with him and take over if the gamble on him succeeding away from the Caps fails.
And the Avs and former Caps goalies has been a thing for a long time and in this case I wouldn't mind continuing the tradition given that this seems to be someone the Avs always have been rumored to be pretty high on. I also think a 1yr 2-2.5m deal that leaves him as a RFA makes sense for the Avs.

So how expensive would he be?

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[Random schmoe]

I think you pretty accurately summarized the situation with Samsonov. He's a guy who still shows flashes of the talent that made him a first rounder but he's pretty inconsistent, and up until this past season he had some questionable decision making off the ice. In 2021-22, he had his highest GAA and lowest SV % of his career. (In his rookie year, 2019-20, he got some sheltered starts behind Holtby.) So while his occasional individual performance was very good, I didn't feel like he really improved much if at all with experience.

I feel like in a vacuum, his value right now is around a mid 2nd round pick. But there are enough goalie-needy teams out there, some of which may still see his talent and think that they can be the ones to fix him, that there would be a mini-bidding war for him.

I could see an eventual price being a late first, or a second and fair-to-good (not top) prospect, or like a second this year and a third next year. Something along those lines. IMHO.

 

[Holtbyisms]

I think both posts are spot on. Ideally we could use him + in a trade to aquire a goalie like Gibson but you're probably looking at mid round 2nd possibly high 2nd and another mid range prospect if multiple teams are interested.

 

[JoemAvs]

Thanks for the replies.
Avs can't really afford to get into bidding wars with our distinct lack of draft picks.

But I agree that the goalie market will be very hot this year and that this might push Samsonov very much out of our price range unless the teams get creative (wouldn't be the first time between the Caps and Avs) and some sort of combination of mid round picks, Kuempers rights (Friedge mentioned Caps as possibility) and prospects could get it done.

 

[Hivemind]

Colorado acquiring a Washington goalie? That would never happen

 

[trick9]

I don't think Capitals move him for a 2nd rounder. They are in the market for starting goalie but Samsonov is still the guy likely to stay while Vanecek is the likelier candidate to be moved.

 

[Holtbyisms]

I don't think Capitals move him for a 2nd rounder. They are in the market for starting goalie but Samsonov is still the guy likely to stay while Vanecek is the likelier candidate to be moved.

I think Samsonov is the superior goalie and has a way higher ceiling. Unfortunately if they're going for a long term starter who makes a good chunk of change like Keumper or Gibson... you commit to them and give him a backup not a 1b to create controversy. Vanecek has all the makings of a mid to high end backup. Samsonov has the value needed to aquire assets in an off-season where for the first time in quite some time we've got the flexibility to obtain assets and make significant changes. I think as a GM you want to keep Samsonov but it just makes more sense to move him than Vanecek if they're going to aquire a traditional #1.

 

[Random schmoe]

@trick9 makes a fair point that I didn't really address, and that's whether or not the Caps SHOULD move him. Personally, I'm torn. On one hand, he has a higher ceiling than Vanecek. But on the other, they can't really afford to roll the dice again and risk wasting another season with subpar goaltending. And if they replace him with a better goalie, that's a win.

But I think @Holtbyisms lays out the argument well.

 

[trick9]

I think Samsonov is the superior goalie and has a way higher ceiling. Unfortunately if they're going for a long term starter who makes a good chunk of change like Keumper or Gibson... you commit to them and give him a backup not a 1b to create controversy. Vanecek has all the makings of a mid to high end backup. Samsonov has the value needed to aquire assets in an off-season where for the first time in quite some time we've got the flexibility to obtain assets and make significant changes. I think as a GM you want to keep Samsonov but it just makes more sense to move him than Vanecek if they're going to aquire a traditional #1.

I could maybe agree with you if there were elite goalies available. But there aren't a single elite netminder available so i would much rather have better backup than a 2nd round pick that isn't going to help us for few years. Great teams that have elite goalie can afford to have cheap backup. Not bubble/borderline contending teams that doesn’t have elite goalie. 2nd round pick (minus what Vanecek would return in a trade) isn't enough to convince me of moving him.

Also goalies always have controversy around them. Even if your backup sucks. If you have a terrible stretch for month or two and your backup isn't good, your team is straight away in the market for a goalie.

 

[Patagonia]

Thanks for the replies.
Avs can't really afford to get into bidding wars with our distinct lack of draft picks.

But I agree that the goalie market will be very hot this year and that this might push Samsonov very much out of our price range unless the teams get creative (wouldn't be the first time between the Caps and Avs) and some sort of combination of mid round picks, Kuempers rights (Friedge mentioned Caps as possibility) and prospects could get it done.

Caps ned to dump a salary if they pursue a G. Maybe they add Eller - $3.5M (1 year) in any deal. AVs are short 2nds until 2025. Too long for the Caps to wait with an aging team.

Samsonov
Eller

for

Kuemper (rights)
2022 - 3rd
2023 - 3rd

 

[Hivemind]

Caps ned to dump a salary if they pursue a G.

No they don't. Caps have practically infinite salary cap space right now with Nicklas Backstrom, Carl Hagelin, and Tom Wilson on LTIR.

 

[A1LeafNation]

For all the 2014 drafted goalies that just broke out in the last year...Shesterkin, Demko, Sorokin, Nedel, Husso, you would think the 2015 crop are about to do the same...Samsonov, Vej, Blackwood, etc. if they haven't already.

 

[Patagonia]

No they don't. Caps have practically infinite salary cap space right now with Nicklas Backstrom, Carl Hagelin, and Tom Wilson on LTIR.

Caps have $9M without the injuries. Add another $15M with the LTIR.

Rumoured to be after Kadri to replace Backstrom and Goalie - Kumeper/Fleury/Campbell etc which should be close to eliminating the LTIR. Remaining $9M will still be used to replace Wilson/Hagelin. Samsonov/Vanecek are RFAs. Cap space is quickly eliminated and no room for deadline deals.

Proposal to signing Kuemper would be a cap dump Eller to include Samsonov and picks.

 

[trick9]

Caps have $9M without the injuries. Add another $15M with the LTIR.

Rumoured to be after Kadri to replace Backstrom and Goalie - Kumeper/Fleury/Campbell etc which should be close to eliminating the LTIR. Remaining $9M will still be used to replace Wilson/Hagelin. Samsonov/Vanecek are RFAs. Cap space is quickly eliminated and no room for deadline deals.

Proposal to signing Kuemper would be a cap dump Eller to include Samsonov and picks.

Eller is not a cap dump.

Kuemper's rights have next to no value. Maybe a 6th rounder.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Samsonov is not (yet?) a 1A in the league. He's been outright bad this far.

 

[Fallschirmyager]

Samsonov is not (yet?) a 1A in the league. He's been outright bad this far.

He has not been bad. He has been wildly erratic. Until he can become more consistent he isn't a reliable starter

 

[BlueOil]

colorado does love lightly used washington goalies

i think the caps would be foolish to move sammy this quick

 

[OV Rocks]

Samsonov's value is in a trade for a goalie like Gibson, a package of Samsonov and a 1st is a good baseline for that trade.

Stand alone value for Samsonov is not great, probably a 5/6 D, a bottom 6 forward, a young prospect, or a 2nd round draft pick.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

colorado does love lightly used washington goalies

i think the caps would be foolish to move sammy this quick

Everyone knows that Washington is Colorado's goalie development team.