Agreed. I will be very surprised if Washington deals the pick. They have prospect depth just as Pittsburgh does, although unbiasedly, I think you give the defensive edge to Pittsburgh with Whitney, Welch, and Nemec (to list a few), who is not in my avatar for no reason.
The only trade that the Caps would likely consider is a trade involving probably the second pick with at least Whitney or Welch, probably both, and maybe something else. The Penguins won't give that up as they've said many times, and I really don't think it benefits either team, especially the Pens, to make a trade like that.
Both teams essentially need a top player like Ovechkin. The Caps not as much with Semin there, but a franchise forward is still lacking (I would say Semin would be a very high point producing support forward, not a franchise guy... somewhat like what Kovalev is or was). The Caps could use some more defensemen, but good drafting and/or trading can solve that.
They both need a top player and both will get one. Washington gets the better one of the two, regardless of what anyone is saying to cloud the picks up. We Pens fans might want to cross our fingers for Crosby, but I don't think a franchise type forward is essential to success. It can't hurt though, especially with depth.
To be blunt, I wouldn't trade for the pick. The Pens should stay at two and bank on Malkin having great offensive success, maybe leading the team in points some day. With Fleury and the drafting of several defensemen in the past few years, I believe the Penguin franchise has set the precedent that they are building from the goal out anyways, so a real top offensive forward may not be critical. They'll need offense from somewhere, and Malkin is potentially that player.
While Ovechkin is clearly the better player at this time, picking up Malkin and staying the course with Fleury, Whitney, Welch et al is still potentially a great foundation for the future. It would be better to pick Ovechkin, but the cost at which he would come would actually end up making getting Ovechkin worse for long term success, which is why I say no to trading up.