If you were to do buyouts.. who would you target?

topshelf15

Registered User
May 5, 2009
27,993
6,005
Nobody. But if forced to pick, I guess Anderson. He's probably the worst starting goalie in the league and we'd be better off giving those games to someone else (and I think he'd like a change as well).
D0vX3wTXcAchDPd.png:large


Also, our D... one young player put in over his head and two vets who are very bad at what they do (and should be replaced next year).

D0yMwZfWkAEIpY-.jpg:large
Meh let him finish the season,if we really want to move him we could do it in the offseason
 

Upgrayedd

Earn'em and Burn'em
Oct 14, 2010
5,306
1,610
Ottawa
The only guy who actively hurts the team in virtually every situation is Boro imo, he would be my 1 and only choice, if the goal was to be competitive with proper ownership coming in, I would re-evaluate my stance.
 

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
65,011
49,543
Nobody. But if forced to pick, I guess Anderson. He's probably the worst starting goalie in the league and we'd be better off giving those games to someone else (and I think he'd like a change as well).
D0vX3wTXcAchDPd.png:large


Also, our D... one young player put in over his head and two vets who are very bad at what they do (and should be replaced next year).

D0yMwZfWkAEIpY-.jpg:large
Nice to see our top 2 vet D on the list
 
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Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,708
9,652
Montreal, Canada
Bobby Ryan - he just can play past January in the NHL he’s in such bad shape.

Last 10 games he has 2 points and is -9.

Just get rid of him. It was a mistake from the second the trade was made, this rebuild is about fixing Ottawa and Ryan off the team would be a thing that needs fixing

Of course if you take it out of context it looks bad, doh. During that 10 games sequence, the Sens record was 1-9 and the team was -23. Everyone knows it was while a very PARTICULAR context where the best players were sat in case of a trade, and then were traded. The Ryan lost his linemates once again. Here's a link below of who he has been playing with since. Everyone who knows and understands NHL hockey knows Ryan needs to be played with somewhat skilled players who can put the puck in the net.

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

He is also the career scoring leader on the team by far, at some point you need a bit of proven vets :

Ryan 540 NHL Points
Boedker 318 NHL Points
Smith 187 NHL Points

Finally, since the trade :

Bobby Ryan : 416 Games 100 Goals 151 Assists 251 Points (0.60 PPG)
Jakob Silfverberg : 428 Games 100 Goals 116 Assists 216 Points (0.50 PPG)
Nick Ritchie : 235 Games 34 Goals 51 Assists 85 Points (0.36 PPG)
Stefan Noesen : 2 NHL Games then claimed off waivers

Silfverberg and Ritchie have trouble to outscore a declined Ryan combined :laugh: And well, Silfverberg will only make 2 M$ less than Ryan starting next year at 29 y/o, and until 34 y/o... Not sure how long he'll stay efficient enough to be close to be worth that salary. I mean, he has stats more comparable to Zack Smith (advanced too) who a majority of this board deem as absolute trash.

Ryan is a stop gap at this point, the team is already too young and inexperienced. . Sure if Melnyk ponied up the money to retain some of Karlsson, Stone or Duchene, then you can "get rid of Ryan", but as of now it's going to be a real challenge just to reach the cap floor.
 

stempniaksen

Registered User
Oct 12, 2008
11,005
4,264
We need all of our overpaid guys to hit the floor at this point. That being said, the goaltending needs a shakeup and if a buyout is the only way to open up spots we need to try it.

Condon: Obvious candidate. Guy looked toast and now hasn't played in months.

Anderson: Assuming there's a trade to be made out there, but if not we need to cut bait. He's on a 35+ contract, so a buyout could make sense in the same way Burrows made sense (cap hit remains, money paid out is less)
 

Tuna99

Registered User
Sep 26, 2009
14,716
6,804
Of course if you take it out of context it looks bad, doh. During that 10 games sequence, the Sens record was 1-9 and the team was -23. Everyone knows it was while a very PARTICULAR context where the best players were sat in case of a trade, and then were traded. The Ryan lost his linemates once again. Here's a link below of who he has been playing with since. Everyone who knows and understands NHL hockey knows Ryan needs to be played with somewhat skilled players who can put the puck in the net.

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

He is also the career scoring leader on the team by far, at some point you need a bit of proven vets :

Ryan 540 NHL Points
Boedker 318 NHL Points
Smith 187 NHL Points

Finally, since the trade :

Bobby Ryan : 416 Games 100 Goals 151 Assists 251 Points (0.60 PPG)
Jakob Silfverberg : 428 Games 100 Goals 116 Assists 216 Points (0.50 PPG)
Nick Ritchie : 235 Games 34 Goals 51 Assists 85 Points (0.36 PPG)
Stefan Noesen : 2 NHL Games then claimed off waivers

Silfverberg and Ritchie have trouble to outscore a declined Ryan combined :laugh: And well, Silfverberg will only make 2 M$ less than Ryan starting next year at 29 y/o, and until 34 y/o... Not sure how long he'll stay efficient enough to be close to be worth that salary. I mean, he has stats more comparable to Zack Smith (advanced too) who a majority of this board deem as absolute trash.

Ryan is a stop gap at this point, the team is already too young and inexperienced. . Sure if Melnyk ponied up the money to retain some of Karlsson, Stone or Duchene, then you can "get rid of Ryan", but as of now it's going to be a real challenge just to reach the cap floor.

I love how when people defend Ryan they say the team is bad as if he hasn’t been the teams highesy oaid player and makes zero impacts most nights and is invisible for months at a time.

The reason the Sens are bad is because the players are bad - and Ryan is the poster boy for that.

If he drove a line a la Mark Stone this team is in a completely different place.

It takes a lot of mistakes to be as bad as Ottawa, Ryan to me is the biggest example of that and why he should go.
 

AchtzehnBaby

Global Matador
Mar 28, 2013
15,022
8,906
Hazeldean Road
Question regarding Boro. Can we not just use him as a guy to beat the crap out of anyone touching our young guns? We are going to need someone for the next few years to pummel any headshot takers

I don't want to sound like Don Cherry, but we will need some protection over the next few years. Honestly, who else is going to fight?
 

alfstheman

Registered User
Jul 2, 2009
764
316
Smith and Ceci are the most frustrating players to watch. Everytime they touch the puck I expect a giveaway. That said I say we keep ceci for next 2 years... can you say guaranteed 1st overall 2 years in a row?? lol

Smith is just blocking a more skilled prospect at this point. He cant even pk anymore
 

FolignoQuantumLeap

Don't Hold The Door
Mar 16, 2009
31,084
7,399
Ottawa
I think an Anderson buyout makes sense, especially if we do decide to sign Nilsson. Saves them money and because he's a 35+ contract his cap hit will remain so it helps them artificially reach the cap floor while also not spending.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,708
9,652
Montreal, Canada
I love how when people defend Ryan they say the team is bad as if he hasn’t been the teams highesy oaid player and makes zero impacts most nights and is invisible for months at a time.

The reason the Sens are bad is because the players are bad - and Ryan is the poster boy for that.

If he drove a line a la Mark Stone this team is in a completely different place.

It takes a lot of mistakes to be as bad as Ottawa, Ryan to me is the biggest example of that and why he should go.

I didn't really quote your post to answer you, or even this one. I am putting factual and thoughtful information so people don't automatically fall into the trap. Personally I think facts >>> opinions very easily but it's up to people to choose if they value the facts I present over your opinion or not.

You put Ryan on a team surrounded by established skill in an efficient system and will produce 55-60 pts a year, assuming he doesn't miss many games. It has been proven all his career, he only really struggled ONCE in 2016-17 (injuries, Boucher, off-ice issues, linemates, opportunity) but then bounced back in a major way in the playoffs. He started regaining form last year and while he still struggled with constant injuries, he still had productive stretches and finished with a 0.53 PPG

Sure, he won't ever produce enough to justify his AAV, everyone knows it, including Ryan himself. He is not a line driver like Stone (that kind of player is kind of RARE by the way), even though he creates a lot of scoring chances for himself and others, but like I said, he needs to play with skilled players or of course, his skill will be wasted, which is the case right now.

The team is bad because in only ONE SEASON, they literally SOLD talents Hoffman, Karlsson, Stone, Duchene and Dzingel for mostly futures (and depth players like Tierney, DeMelo, Boedker, Duclair) and had a terrible/cheap coaching staff and subpar goaltending, with a totally inexperienced blue line. The fact that you think it's because of "mistakes" and not of a financial purge shows your general lack of understanding.

Last year, a different owner would have ordered to fire the coaching staff when they started to struggle to turn things around. Learning that there was tensions between Hoffman and Karlsson clans, Hoffman would have been traded to fill a hole in the line-up (Top-4 LD D-man). Goaltending situation would have been addressed. Core players would have been signed long term and the team wouldn't be in the situation that they are today (Rebuild? lol). Many things could have been done to avoid a FULL REBUILD (all core players still pretty young), but dollars would have been needed to be invested.

Anyway, in that stretch of 10 games you were talking about :

Pageau : 1 assist -9
Chabot : 2 goals, 2 assists -10
Tierney : 4 assists, -9.
Ceci : 3 assists -8.
Boedker : 1 goal, 3 assists -9.
White : 2 goals 3 assists -9.
Tkachuk : 2 goals 5 assists -7.

Even the best players of that stretch were severely in the minus. The fact that you mentioned that Ryan was -9 like it was a negative reveals your agenda right away, only naive people will fall for it, the rest will know it's contextual. It's not everyday you see a firesale of that scale. Can't even remember the last time it happened.
 

aragorn

Do The Right Thing
Aug 8, 2004
28,471
9,001
IMO Condon is the one candidate who could be bought out since he could be easily replaced with either Hogberg or they could just re-sign Nilsson. His future in the NHL seems to be over but who knows for sure. The other buyout candidate could be Gaborik although he will probably finish his contract on the disabled list like Mac. MacArthur comes off the books at the end of next season too.

Everybody else with no future in this org has some value & should be shopped around, from the end of the season until next yr's trade deadline.

Since PD was unable to trade a number of UFAs I assume he let's most of them walk at season's end with maybe the exception of Nilsson & a couple of defenceman.

UFAs that should be released at yr's end:
Lindberg, Gibbons, Pajaarvi, JOB, Balisy, Archibald, Falk, Burgdoerfer, Elliott & Goloubef

Next yr's UFAs & Trade Bait:
Boedker, Pageau, Boro, Anderson & DeMello.
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
16,575
9,269
With buyouts, it has to be considered that the buyout salary isn't the only cost associated with a buyout. If a roster player (Smith, Ryan, etc) are being bought out, you have to factor in the cost of replacing them as a body on the 23 (or with the Sens 22) player roster. That usually costs about 800k per season that they would have been under contract. This makes a lot of buyouts pointless in terms of saving money.


MIKE CONDON

Condon is the only player where a buyout makes sense money wise because he isn't projected to be on our NHL roster, there's not any room for him in the system, so therefore it isn't a situation where we have to account for the cost of a replacement body. Buying him out legitimately saves this team 1 million dollars over the course of the contract.


BUYOUTS AND THE 2021 FYOUS
Buying out Ryan or Smith makes no sense, mostly because of the supposed plan for us to spend to (near) the salary cap starting in 2021. Therefore, cap space in the future is more valuable than cap space right now. By buying out those players, all we are doing is sacrificing future cap space to earn current cap space. That doesn't make any strategic sense since we have an abundance of cap space the next two seasons. We might as well ride out those contracts and use our current cap space to get rid of them.


ZACK SMITH
We also know there WAS a market for Smith. It was contingent on us taking back money in some form. Meaning, unless the market that was there for Smith at the start of the season (according to Bob McKenzie and others) is now gone, it would make more sense to trade him with retained salary (or taking back a similar term contract). We'd get an asset like a pick or a prospect, and we also wouldn't be spreading Smith's cap hit over twice the length of his contract and eating up cap space in 2021 and beyond when we are supposed to be competing. (Yeah, I don't believe it either, but we still should talk strategy as if it is legit...)


BOBBY RYAN
I could see Ryan being bought out because while it does not save any real money because he's got those 2M in bonuses that cannot be bought out, it spreads out the team's biggest financial obligation over twice the length of the contract. Although, our roster is so depleted that he's one of our best forwards, which might dissuade the team from buying him out.

Here's what a Ryan buyout looks like....

Cap Hit Calculations

SEASONBASE SALARYINITIAL CAP HITACTUAL COSTSAVINGSFINAL CAP HIT
2019-20$5,500,000$7,250,000$3,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2020-21$5,500,000$7,250,000$3,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2021-22$5,500,000$7,250,000$3,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2022-23$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
2023-24$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
2024-25$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
TOTAL$16,500,000$21,750,000$17,000,000$5,500,000$16,250,000
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
I've added his signing bonus to the first three years of the (Actual Cost) tab since Capfriendly does not do that, and they do not get bought out. Keep in mind, we'll have to pay someone at least 650k to play those three seasons that Ryan would have been on our roster. Meaning, of the 22.5 million owed to Ryan, the Senators likely only save in the 3-5 million range if they buy him out.

The main benefit for Eugene Melnyk is that if he buys out Bobby Ryan, while he saves very little over the lifetime of the contract, the payments to Ryan get structured in a way that acts as a form of a payment plan. Melnyk saves around 3 million a season for the next three years at the expense of paying an extra 1.833,333 million for three years after the contract would have been finished.

One last factor that might lead to the Senators not buying out Bobby Ryan, the possibility of an NHL lockout during the lifetime of the contract. A full season NHL lockout means Eugene Melnyk is spared from having to pay Ryan his 5.5 million base salary. Meaning, Melnyk will only owe Ryan 17 of his 22.5 million. That prospect might discourage Melnyk from a buyout anytime before the lockout, as it saves him more money to keep Ryan's contract on the books and not have to pay him.

Ultimately, I Mike Condon is the only player I'd consider buying out. If we see the Senators rush to bring him back and give him some games to close out the season, it won't be because they are invested in rehabbing his career, it'll be because they will want a legitimate argument that he is healthy and recovered. They cannot buy him out if he is considered to be injured. This is something I'd watch for as the season closes out.
 
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Caeldan

Whippet Whisperer
Jun 21, 2008
15,459
1,046
Question regarding Boro. Can we not just use him as a guy to beat the crap out of anyone touching our young guns? We are going to need someone for the next few years to pummel any headshot takers

I don't want to sound like Don Cherry, but we will need some protection over the next few years. Honestly, who else is going to fight?

Except that more often than not, it's not Boro but someone like Ryan stepping in/up when a team takes liberties against us.

The only fights Borowiecki seems to get into are him responding to the other team, or stage fights.
 

justafan22

Registered User
Jun 22, 2014
11,629
6,249
With buyouts, it has to be considered that the buyout salary isn't the only cost associated with a buyout. If a roster player (Smith, Ryan, etc) are being bought out, you have to factor in the cost of replacing them as a body on the 23 (or with the Sens 22) player roster. That usually costs about 800k per season that they would have been under contract. This makes a lot of buyouts pointless in terms of saving money.


MIKE CONDON

Condon is the only player where a buyout makes sense money wise because he isn't projected to be on our NHL roster, there's not any room for him in the system, so therefore it isn't a situation where we have to account for the cost of a replacement body. Buying him out legitimately saves this team 1 million dollars over the course of the contract.


BUYOUTS AND THE 2021 FYOUS
Buying out Ryan or Smith makes no sense, mostly because of the supposed plan for us to spend to (near) the salary cap starting in 2021. Therefore, cap space in the future is more valuable than cap space right now. By buying out those players, all we are doing is sacrificing future cap space to earn current cap space. That doesn't make any strategic sense since we have an abundance of cap space the next two seasons. We might as well ride out those contracts and use our current cap space to get rid of them.


ZACK SMITH
We also know there WAS a market for Smith. It was contingent on us taking back money in some form. Meaning, unless the market that was there for Smith at the start of the season (according to Bob McKenzie and others) is now gone, it would make more sense to trade him with retained salary (or taking back a similar term contract). We'd get an asset like a pick or a prospect, and we also wouldn't be spreading Smith's cap hit over twice the length of his contract and eating up cap space in 2021 and beyond when we are supposed to be competing. (Yeah, I don't believe it either, but we still should talk strategy as if it is legit...)


BOBBY RYAN
I could see Ryan being bought out because while it does not save any real money because he's got those 2M in bonuses that cannot be bought out, it spreads out the team's biggest financial obligation over twice the length of the contract. Although, our roster is so depleted that he's one of our best forwards, which might dissuade the team from buying him out.

Here's what a Ryan buyout looks like....

Cap Hit Calculations

SEASONBASE SALARYINITIAL CAP HITACTUAL COSTSAVINGSFINAL CAP HIT
2019-20$5,500,000$7,250,000$3,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2020-21$5,500,000$7,250,000$3,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2021-22$5,500,000$7,250,000$3,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2022-23$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
2023-24$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
2024-25$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
TOTAL$16,500,000$21,750,000$17,000,000$5,500,000$16,250,000
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
I've added his signing bonus to the first three years of the (Actual Cost) tab since Capfriendly does not do that, and they do not get bought out. Keep in mind, we'll have to pay someone at least 650k to play those three seasons that Ryan would have been on our roster. Meaning, of the 22.5 million owed to Ryan, the Senators likely only save in the 3-5 million range if they buy him out.

The main benefit for Eugene Melnyk is that if he buys out Bobby Ryan, while he saves very little over the lifetime of the contract, the payments to Ryan get structured in a way that acts as a form of a payment plan. Melnyk saves around 3 million a season for the next three years at the expense of paying an extra 1.833,333 million for three years after the contract would have been finished.

One last factor that might lead to the Senators not buying out Bobby Ryan, the possibility of an NHL lockout during the lifetime of the contract. A full season NHL lockout means Eugene Melnyk is spared from having to pay Ryan his 5.5 million base salary. Meaning, Melnyk will only owe Ryan 17 of his 22.5 million. That prospect might discourage Melnyk from a buyout anytime before the lockout, as it saves him more money to keep Ryan's contract on the books and not have to pay him.

Ultimately, I Mike Condon is the only player I'd consider buying out. If we see the Senators rush to bring him back and give him some games to close out the season, it won't be because they are invested in rehabbing his career, it'll be because they will want a legitimate argument that he is healthy and recovered. They cannot buy him out if he is considered to be injured. This is something I'd watch for as the season closes out.

Good post. I do think Condon will be bought out if healthy, since they'll probably sign Nilsson to a cheap extension.
 

Sweatred

Erase me
Jan 28, 2019
13,408
3,324
We need to expose someone in 20-21 expansion.If we dump guys like Ryan, Demelo etc we will just have to acquire someone to expose to ensure we protect Chabot, Brannstrom, Lajoie, etc.
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
16,575
9,269
We need to expose someone in 20-21 expansion.If we dump guys like Ryan, Demelo etc we will just have to acquire someone to expose to ensure we protect Chabot, Brannstrom, Lajoie, etc.

We can only protect 7F and 3D. We won't have to acquire people to expose because if we dump guys it means lesser players like Paul will accrue the NHL experience needed to meet exposure requirements. We are also losing a good piece in the expansion, there's no way getting around it. We have way too many B or C+ type pieces to protect them all.

So we are going to have to expose a decent piece regardless.

Brannstrom, Norris, and Formenton are exempt.

We probably protect Tkachuk's, White, Brown, Batherson, and Balcers.

That leaves us 2 spots to protect 2 of Pageau, Tierney, Abramov, or Chlapik. Pageau may not be here, and Tierney will only have 1 more year of team control.

Point is, we will have to expose 2 of Tierney, Pageau, Abramov, or Chlapik.

Then on D, Chabot obviously gets protected and Ceci is gone by then. So we have 2 spots only to use on Wolanin, Jaros, Lajoie, and Demelo.

In goal, we will have 1 spot to use on Nilsson, Gustavsson, and Hogberg.

Our unprotected list probably ends up looking something like Ryan, Tierney, Chlapik, Wolanin, Demelo, Nilsson, Hogberg.

So we lose a good player regardless, and we shouldn't have an issue meeting the exposure requirements. Remember, we can only lose 1 player.
 

Nac Mac Feegle

wee & free
Jun 10, 2011
34,829
9,252
Question regarding Boro. Can we not just use him as a guy to beat the crap out of anyone touching our young guns? We are going to need someone for the next few years to pummel any headshot takers

I don't want to sound like Don Cherry, but we will need some protection over the next few years. Honestly, who else is going to fight?

Only if it's a case where he'll be spending a number of games each season watching from the pressbox. That's kinda the problem with Boro...when he's on the roster, coaches want to play him, and play him too much. They won't healthy scratch him.
 

branch

#GirlBoss #Vibes
Jan 12, 2008
8,837
7,233
Question regarding Boro. Can we not just use him as a guy to beat the crap out of anyone touching our young guns? We are going to need someone for the next few years to pummel any headshot takers

I don't want to sound like Don Cherry, but we will need some protection over the next few years. Honestly, who else is going to fight?

Boro doesn't even fight well. Guys he usually fights more often than not beat the wheels off him.
 

aragorn

Do The Right Thing
Aug 8, 2004
28,471
9,001
I've changed my mind. Boedker should be bought out because he makes $4 mil & is pretty much useless & invisible. Condon could be waived next yr & of course, no one will take him & he will be sent to Belleville & be an injury callup like McKenna at the beginning of the yr & hopefully eventually trade him next yr too. Then we are rid of two useless players. Let Nilsson walk at the end of the yr, Hogberg graduates to Ottawa & Condon & Gustavsson play in Belleville while Daccord plays in the ECHL since he is used to seeing a lot of rubber. Once Condon is traded Daccord moves to Belleville after getting lots of ice time & playing time in Brampton.
 

BonHoonLayneCornell

Registered User
Oct 16, 2006
15,229
10,452
Yukon
We can only protect 7F and 3D. We won't have to acquire people to expose because if we dump guys it means lesser players like Paul will accrue the NHL experience needed to meet exposure requirements. We are also losing a good piece in the expansion, there's no way getting around it. We have way too many B or C+ type pieces to protect them all.

So we are going to have to expose a decent piece regardless.

Brannstrom, Norris, and Formenton are exempt.

We probably protect Tkachuk's, White, Brown, Batherson, and Balcers.

That leaves us 2 spots to protect 2 of Pageau, Tierney, Abramov, or Chlapik. Pageau may not be here, and Tierney will only have 1 more year of team control.

Point is, we will have to expose 2 of Tierney, Pageau, Abramov, or Chlapik.

Then on D, Chabot obviously gets protected and Ceci is gone by then. So we have 2 spots only to use on Wolanin, Jaros, Lajoie, and Demelo.

In goal, we will have 1 spot to use on Nilsson, Gustavsson, and Hogberg.

Our unprotected list probably ends up looking something like Ryan, Tierney, Chlapik, Wolanin, Demelo, Nilsson, Hogberg.

So we lose a good player regardless, and we shouldn't have an issue meeting the exposure requirements. Remember, we can only lose 1 player.
Lajoie protected over Wolanin?

Assuming we lose Pageau to UFA, or he's traded in anticipation of that, and all we end up losing is a player like Tierney, Lajoie or DeMelo, that is not so bad at all. If they were to trade both Pageau and Tierney, and protect Abramov and Chlapik, do we have another eligible cast away to leave exposed?
 

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