If you were Ottawa, Would you give Colorado this years pick?

[LeafGrief]

No way. If the Sens can manage to keep Karlsson and get some good games from a goalie, they are better than a dead-last team. Get Hoffman out of there and pray that kids like Colin White, Logan Brown, and Thomas Chabot can make some real positive contributions. They're a team with plenty of decent forwards and Karlsson is an absolute game breaker. I don't think they make the playoffs having shipped out Hoffman and Brassard, but they're not a last place team. They're not that far removed from playing their way into the final 4.

If Karlsson leaves, they're completely and utterly f***ed. They still don't give up the 4th this year, the odds are very tilted in favour of this being a better pick than next years. They might lose that gamble, but it's the smart decision to make.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

It would be the better bet to give them this years' pick. From what it looks like they'll be a brutal team coming into next season. Mark Stone will likely be their best player going into next season if Karlsson leaves, it'd be best for them not to have a top prospect come into the team during the bad years of the franchise, as the next year they'll likely have to look on improving everything.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

It's not just simple probability when you are talking about #1 overall picks. Yes, probably the Sens won't pick #1 next year. And yes, it's even reasonably likely that they'll pick even lower than #4.

But... the value of a #1 overall pick is often exponentially higher than that of a #4 pick, and even a slim chance at a #1 overall pick is worth more than the difference between #4 and dropping to say, #8. Caveated of course with any specific knowledge of the draft crops in question. After Hughes, is the top-10 in 2019 comparable to this year's #4? In many draft years I would expect this to be the case.

Unless they are absolutely in love with a certain prospect they expect to get #4 this year, I'd be inclined to give it up and see what happens next year. It's almost win-win... if you pick much much lower than 4 next year - great, your team did better than expected in the standings, so that relative success should soften the blow, and hey, you can even find Erik Karlssons at #15 sometimes right? Even a relatively slim chance at #1 overall next year is better than the 0% chance of picking #1 this year. #1's are just worth that much more (most years).

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

to be fair, it cant get worse for ottawa right now, and not having the "you dont have a first round pick next year" being told all year is likely a positive in itself.

 

[trick9]

Yes.

Their team is pretty bad as of now and it's only going to get worse after they trade Karlsson and/or Hoffman. Just bite the bullet and make this debacle end and get ready to build the team again through their great young players.

 

[Meeqs]

For me it purely depends on what MTL does. If Zedina is there I take him, if he is gone I give the pick to Col.

 

[Meeqs]

Next years draft is stronger and with the draft lotto the way it is they will most likely have a chance to pick higher.

This years class is also an odd one. How do they feel about some of the Dmen who could be there, or how about Tkachuk? Its a tough call but either way they will be trading a high pick, its just which high pick they think will be better.

 

[Sensung]

Next years draft is stronger and with the draft lotto the way it is they will most likely have a chance to pick higher.

This years class is also an odd one. How do they feel about some of the Dmen who could be there, or how about Tkachuk? Its a tough call but either way they will be trading a high pick, its just which high pick they think will be better.

You need to read up on the draft lottery odds posted in this thread.

You're wrong, but that appears to be par for the course with your postings.

 

[Meeqs]

No way. If the Sens can manage to keep Karlsson and get some good games from a goalie, they are better than a dead-last team. Get Hoffman out of there and pray that kids like Colin White, Logan Brown, and Thomas Chabot can make some real positive contributions. They're a team with plenty of decent forwards and Karlsson is an absolute game breaker. I don't think they make the playoffs having shipped out Hoffman and Brassard, but they're not a last place team. They're not that far removed from playing their way into the final 4.

If Karlsson leaves, they're completely and utterly ****ed. They still don't give up the 4th this year, the odds are very tilted in favour of this being a better pick than next years. They might lose that gamble, but it's the smart decision to make.

So you're saying they should lose out on a ton of EKs value by holding onto him in hopes that the pick they lose is maybe 8 spots lower? Also if they do move him is it really worth risking losing a lotto pick to take a 4th this year over lets say a 7th OA next year in a stronger draft?

 

[Meeqs]

You need to read up on the draft lottery odds posted in this thread.

You're wrong, but that appears to be par for the course wiith your postings.

Despite you claiming the contrary as a substitution for a lack of actual knowledge, I understand the draft lotto odds very well (and have a degree in mathematics). If you'd like to be specific on where you think I am wrong then I'd be happy to address that topic in more detail but in general:

The last place team has a 50/50 shot at a top 3 pick,
the 2nd to last place has about a 40% chance at a top 3 pick with a 27% to drop to 5th
the 3rd to last place has close to a 33% chace at a top 3 pick.

Statistically the worst 2 teams each are most likely to pick 4th OA and 3rd last is most likely to pick 5th.

As long as you are a bottom 5 team it is incredibly unlikely you would pick worse than 7thOA at only a 4% chance.

So if we expect they will be a bottom 5 team, which seems likely atm. Then you could expect no worse than next years pick to be a top 6, with a ~30% chance to be in the top 3. Which in a better draft I would say is the more valuable piece.

Granted a lot of this has to do with whether or not Zedina is there, as this year picks 4-8 all have pretty much the same value.

 

[LeafGrief]

So you're saying they should lose out on a ton of EKs value by holding onto him in hopes that the pick they lose is maybe 8 spots lower? Also if they do move him is it really worth risking losing a lotto pick to take a 4th this year over lets say a 7th OA next year in a stronger draft?

They should keep EK's entire value by re-signing him and having him continue to play in Ottawa. If they don't keep him, either by trade or to free agency, they are screwed. There is no happy ending for them if Karlsson is not in an Ottawa sweater next season or the season after. Even if they do move him, they are going to keep this year's pick because the odds of the pick being better (1-3) next year are lower than the odds of the pick being worse (5+). They would be awful next year without him, but it's still hard to finish last in this league, and that makes their mathematical odds in favour of this year's pick being the better of the two.

4th overall this year is significantly more valuable than next year's 7th. That gives their top prospect an extra year of development and puts them that much closer to being a competitive team. You also can't say with any real confidence over one year away that next year's draft will be so much better that 7th is better than this year's 4th.

 

[Meeqs]

They should keep EK's entire value by re-signing him and having him continue to play in Ottawa. If they don't keep him, either by trade or to free agency, they are screwed. There is no happy ending for them if Karlsson is not in an Ottawa sweater next season or the season after. Even if they do move him, they are going to keep this year's pick because the odds of the pick being better (1-3) next year are lower than the odds of the pick being worse (5+). They would be awful next year without him, but it's still hard to finish last in this league, and that makes their mathematical odds in favour of this year's pick being the better of the two.

4th overall this year is significantly more valuable than next year's 7th. That gives their top prospect an extra year of development and puts them that much closer to being a competitive team. You also can't say with any real confidence over one year away that next year's draft will be so much better that 7th is better than this year's 4th.

There is no way EK is resigning there, lets be real. Melnyk wont pay him what he's worth and even if he does, there wont be enough money to make a team around him. Especially now with all this chaos in that org is coming out.

In this years draft, picks 4-8 hold pretty much the same amount of value based on the players that are there. Next years draft is also a stronger draft, its not too hard to get a general feel for a year ahead.

On average there is a higher chance that the pick becomes a #1OA than the #7 for a team in the top 5. The difference between this years 4 and next years 6/7 isn't more than the chance that the pick is a lotto one.

Also Ott is blowing everything up, it doesn't matter how close the pick is. Unless they take Tachuk, whichever player they get wont have a huge impact.

 

[LeafGrief]

There is no way EK is resigning there, lets be real. Melnyk wont pay him what he's worth and even if he does, there wont be enough money to make a team around him. Especially now with all this chaos in that org is coming out.

In this years draft, picks 4-8 hold pretty much the same amount of value based on the players that are there. Next years draft is also a stronger draft, its not too hard to get a general feel for a year ahead.

On average there is a higher chance that the pick becomes a #1OA than the #7 for a team in the top 5. The difference between this years 4 and next years 6/7 isn't more than the chance that the pick is a lotto one.

Also Ott is blowing everything up, it doesn't matter how close the pick is. Unless they take Tachuk, whichever player they get wont have a huge impact.

If Karlsson doesn't re-sign, then the Sens do need to rebuild, but they do have a pretty solid prospect pool and some good young forwards like Duchene and Stone, they don't need to go full scorched earth. They shouldn't take shortcuts through a rebuild, but they don't have to start from square one.

4 to 8 this year do not hold the same value to NHL clubs, getting the guy you want is definitely something that teams are interested in. Just because you think Dobson and Hughes are equal in value doesn't mean that Dorion does. I know that I would certainly rather have #4 this year than #8. Next year's draft might be better, but there might be a huge cliff after 6. You really don't know until the day comes. The odds of that pick being a lottery pick might be a consideration, but the Sens are only one year removed from the conference finals. If they make moves to be competitive instead of blowing it all up this summer, the pick could be lower than 7th.

They're not looking for the kid to make an impact next year, they're looking for a kid to be ready ASAP. The guy drafted this year is almost certainly 1 year closer than the guy drafted next year.

 

[Dogewow]

They should keep this year's pick, as they would be taking a huge gamble by giving it to the Avs.

There is no guarantee that they do suck just as bad, or worse next year. We see surprises every year in which a team is worse or better than they're predicted to be.

If you give Colorado this years pick, then you're essentially telling your fanbase (and Karlsson) that you plan on sucking next year as well, which definitely would not go over well with either party.

Just stick with the certainty of getting a higher end prospect this year.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Colorado apparently has a lot of cap space... how's about trade Karlsson and Hoffman to Colorado for your pick back plus the Av's pick too? Cover all the bases!

 

[Benttheknee]

No team condemns themselves to last place without even playing one game. If Pierre did this, he’d basically be telling the team, the fans, and his boss that he has no intentions of competing next year. It’s career suicide and even if we do finish last, odds are we’re picking 4th anyway.

I agree, but it depends on how management deals with that pick. If they let it influence their moves they are screwed. If they don't then they are ok.

It also may depend on how they perceive the quality of player they get at #4. If they pick a guy that ends up busting it will be a disaster. Look at Zibanejad at #6, a decent player, but they traded him for a Goalie prospect and a later first.

 

[jw2]

Give away the pick.


Trade everyone and try to get as many picks for this season and next years draft.

 

[tucker3434]

Very, very small chance the pick is higher than 4. Not only that, management would be telling fans to expect an even worse year next year. They just can’t do it.

 

[Fandlauer]

Absolutely.

This is the Ottawa Senators were talking about here. Odds don't matter. If we miss the playoffs by one point next year we will absolutely win the lottery and Colorado will get the 1st overall. It doesn't matter where we finish next year, if we miss, and Colorado still has our pick, we absolutely will win the lottery.

No I'm not suggesting some NHL conspiracy against us, but it absolutely WILL happen.

Mark this post and check it a year from now if we don't give Colorado our 4th, which we wont.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I know things seem to be pretty much rock bottom for Sens fans, but can you imagine if they don't give
Colorado the pick this year, Karlsson and Hoffman are traded and the Sens absolutely suck next year. Could be the most hurtful couple of years ever for a NHL fanbase.

Just imagine being last in the standings in October and staying there all year, watching your team lose all while knowing at the end of the season another team gets to pick with your 1st. There will probably be fans that will give up on hockey if that happens.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Dorion needs to have a serious talk with Karlsson. If it is clear that he has no intention to resign, then you give the pick to the Avs and engage in a total rebuild.

Alternatively, if EK doesnt want to resign, you could trade either him or Stone to Colorado to get the 2019 pick back.

 

[markog]

A question: What if Ottawa wants to give Colorado their 1st (4. OA) this year and Colorado says no, we'll take the 2019 1st. Who has the last call? The deal was that this year's 1st is top 10 protected, so I would say Colorado has the last word?

 

[slobbergob]

A question: What if Ottawa wants to give Colorado their 1st (4. OA) this year and Colorado says no, we'll take the 2019 1st. Who has the last call? The deal was that this year's 1st is top 10 protected, so I would say Colorado has the last word?

Ottawa makes the decision. The Avs have no say in it.