If you had to redraft the 2004 picks

[Sammy*]

that ladd is an nhler, and the others (except olesz)werent - and were still unknowns at the nhl level. whats your point? i like ladd better, i havent thought much of olesz from watching him - and ladds been awesome.

Ladds got third line talent.
Thats it Bud.
Sad but true.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

In 2004, people covering the draft were howling when Schwarz was still on the board at 11 and just lost it when the Oilers took Dubnyk at 14, and said the Blues got a hell of a steal at 17.

And now I find out that Barker was overrated at 3, Ladd was overrated at 4, Wheeler was vastly overrated at 5, Picard was overrated at 7, ..... and Schwarz was apparently overrated even being taken at 17. It's a good thing no one around here rushes to judgment about players after 1 season without actually giving those players a chance to develop and see how .....

Oops - sorry. There I go using logic again.

 

[Vagrant]

Ladds got third line talent.
Thats it Bud.
Sad but true.

If only all 3rd line talent could score 5 goals in their first 9 NHL games. *sigh*

 

[Sammy*]

If only all 3rd line talent could score 5 goals in their first 9 NHL games. *sigh*

Your actually suggesting that 5 goals in their first 9 NHL games. *sigh* somehow proves that he isnt a 3rd line talent?
You sure showed me.

 

[bleedgreen]

Ladds got third line talent.
Thats it Bud.
Sad but true.

so did gary roberts. so did shanny. doan. he has as much talent as guys like that had when they started. he is a power forward - games arent won alone on dangle. he has great instincts in front of the net and is a great complement to skill players. he hits, makes good passes, doesnt miss empty nets, and has a desire to be better. will he be a 50 goal scorer, doubtful - but he could be a conn smythe guy one year. he could definitely be on your top line as a worker who can pot a few. ill take all that over all the aforementioned forwards who may, repeat may turn out but you wont know for years. ladd is who he is and is doing it already. he is already playing at the low end of his potential - and he is barely starting. all the more finesse players mentioned wont be around long if they dont score - with ladd it doesnt matter...he is a sure thing to be a valueable player. ill take that and yes, its ok to take that with the 4th overall pick. he is more of a sure thing than any of those other guys - scoring isnt everything, and you cant assume you can find his dependability mixed with his skill later in the draft.

 

[Bluesman]

Your actually suggesting that 5 goals in their first 9 NHL games. *sigh* somehow proves that he isnt a 3rd line talent?
You sure showed me.

You are absolutely right, him coming in and scoring shows he will be unable to play on a scoring line in the NHL. Makes perfect sense.

 

[Sammy*]

You are absolutely right, him coming in and scoring shows he will be unable to play on a scoring line in the NHL. Makes perfect sense.

Ah, most intelligent people dont evaluate a guy based on a 9 game window, nor do they say 9 games is indicative how one will play in the future..
Hey, you do. Thats great. Have at er

 

[Bluesman]

Ah, most intelligent people dont evaluate a guy based on a 9 game window, nor do they say 9 games is indicative how one will play in the future..
Hey, you do. Thats great. Have at er

Ahh, so when you made a statement about his NHL productivity, at no point did you evaluate him based on his NHL performance thus far.

 

[Sammy*]

And what exactly did you base your evaluation off of? His looks?

Watching him in the Dub, his stats in junior & scouting reports.
A little different than basing my opinion on stats in a ten game window..

 

[J17 Vs Proclamation]

Ahh, so when you made a statement about his NHL productivity, at no point did you evaluate him based on his NHL performance thus far.

Its 9 games, not 3 seasons. Ladd may be a 2nd liner, but thats his limit. Their are a ton of guys drafted behind him that have higher upsides, and the highest id take him would be the 15 pick range.

 

[Seph]

Care to explain your reason? Last I saw Tukonen was doing great and was 2nd in WJC scoring

To add to what Le Golie posted, Nokelainen has outscored Tukonen or been level with Tukonen at every level. In the top Finnish league in 03-04 Nokelainen was 4-4-8 (40gms), Tukonen was 3-3-6 (35gms), which is very close, but in the following year, Nokelainen went 15-6-21 (52gms), compared to Tukonen's 5-5-10 (43gms). Granted, they were in very different situations, Nokelainen played for a bad team and was given much better minutes than Tukonen who played for a very good team. But 15goals in the FNL as a 19year old is very impressive, regardless of the situation. At the U18s, they both tied for lead scorers in the tournament (along with Korpi and Voloshenko) with 11pts. In the U20s the following year, Nokelainen had 5pts to Tukonen's 2pts. They're of similar size (Nokelainen gives up 1in and 10lbs), but Nokelainen plays more physical and with more of a mean streak. Nokelainen just oozes intangibles.

They both have similar upsides at this point as stud second liners. I'd say Nokelainen has a higher potential as an all around player, though Tukonen likely has a better upside as a scorer (though not by loads and is less likely to reach it, IMO). Nokelainen has shown the better progression of the two. He reminds me of a center version of Raffi Torres, but with a better defensive game. He does not have quite the scoring acumen as Tukonen, but he has good hands around the net and will likely put up similar points by crashing the net hard.

Basically, similar potential, but right now Nokelainen has made more progress on achieving his potential. Which of course, isn't to say that Tukonen won't reach it, but Nokelainen is just safer right now. Nokelainen is already pretty much an excellent third liner.

Here's what the THN had to say about Nokelainen before the draft:

Here's a guy who has more or less the same skills as the top-rated Finn in the draft, No. 4 Lauri Tukonen, but doesn't use them as well. Petteri Nokelainen plays the defensive side of the game better than the Finns ranked ahead of him, but scouts want more production. The 11 points he had at the world under-18s were not a fluke, but he had great linemates. "He is a good penalty killer and a great team player," said a European scout. The feeling is Nokelainen is a second-line player who will surprise you some nights by showing you the skill and finesse of a first-liner." He competes, has great hands and is dependable and reliable," said an NHL executive. Nokelainen spent the season in Finland's top league and while he did not have great numbers, he established himself as a solid two-way citizen. What's unique is Nokelainen missed some league games because of school. It's usually the opposite case for most players. "He takes his studies seriously," said a scout.

 

[Seph]

Campoli may be an overager... but only by a year or two years (July'84). Since the best defensmen taken in 2002 were all from '83 and '82, I would compare Campoli to players taken in 2003. From the 2003 draft, which was an excellent draft, you had Coburn, Suter, Phaneuf, Seabrook, Stuart... at the same age, Campoli is putting numbers in the NHL... which is not the case of all firstrounders taken in 2003. He might not be very tall, but so his Rafalski. The 2004 being according to what I read less good than 2001, 2003 and 2005, I think Campoli could fit well at the end of the first round if the draft was repeated. At 21, he is already a top 4 in Longisland. Most of the Dmen taken in 2004 will only be top-4 d-men... not no.1 or no.2.

Campoli's been great for the Isles this year, but he still remains well below the that 2003 crop of defensemen. His offensive game is well developed, but the other guys bring better all around games. Campoli has his strengths, to be sure, but still gets beat down low too often because of his smallish stature, and is prone to making ill-advised pinches which lead to odd man rushes against. Rafaksi is also a smarter defensive player, he is good at breaking up the rushes with his stick or making pokechecks, as well as putting up points while still playing a reserved game. Rafalski is better positionally and makes better reads. Campoli isn't there yet, though I suppose that would be his ultimate upside. As an overager, he maybe should've gone late second round in 04 at best, but not a first rounder.

 

[Bad News Benning]

In 2004, people covering the draft were howling when Schwarz was still on the board at 11 and just lost it when the Oilers took Dubnyk at 14, and said the Blues got a hell of a steal at 17.

And now I find out that Barker was overrated at 3, Ladd was overrated at 4, Wheeler was vastly overrated at 5, Picard was overrated at 7, ..... and Schwarz was apparently overrated even being taken at 17. It's a good thing no one around here rushes to judgment about players after 1 season without actually giving those players a chance to develop and see how .....

Oops - sorry. There I go using logic again.

It's funny cause Cory Schneider( 3 straight shutouts) at #26 could turn out to be better than both Schwarz and Dubnyk.

 

[Vic Rattlehead*]

Your actually suggesting that 5 goals in their first 9 NHL games. *sigh* somehow proves that he isnt a 3rd line talent?
You sure showed me.

Pray tell, what proof do you have that Ladd will be a third line talent?

 

[Sammy*]

Pray tell, what proof do you have that Ladd will be a third line talent?

Proof? None. Just like no one here has any "proof" that its a fact that anybody who is discussed will play in the NHL.
I take it you have some sort of other "proof"?

 

[bleedgreen]

the ladd conversation was started by people putting ladd anywhere from 10 in the 20's. people say he doesnt have the upside as others and so on. he has already made the nhl and scored 5 goals in 9 games. he is already hitting people, forechecking like a madman, making good smart passes in the offensive zone, and shown he has trouble missing the net when the scrambles in front of the net begin. those are the things they said ladd could be great at in the nhl. you can say tukonen will have more offensive upside, ditto olesz and schremp - but youd be hard pressed to say they will be complete offensive players like ladd. schremp and olesz will have a real tough time playing as physical. why cant a player like this play on the first line? it takes three guys to do it, why cant ladd? he does all the dirty work, and offensive "upside" isnt needed to score 40 goals in the nhl. a will, strength, and desire to stand in the crease - combined with enough scoring ability to bury chances consistenly is whats needed. pretty goals dont count more than ugly ones - i have no idea why ladd cant be a top liner and cant be as productive as the others. aside from two or three plays in their careers, guys like neely and shanny never went end to end, they sat in high scoring areas and used size, skill, and smart positioning to develop themselves into top scorers. neither one had better skills than ladd when they were 19.

 

[Vagrant]

Just for laughs, Ladd scored tonight and had a beautiful primary assist. He could have had three more goals easy. He's topped out though, let me tell you. By the way, be sure to let me know when you're able to catch a game of him at the NHL level. If you can still tell me with a straight face he's a third line talent, then you're not watching the same kid I am.

 

[Chimaera]

Too Early!

 

[Vagrant]

Too Early!

As early as it may be, Ladd has simply looked amazing so far in NHL action. I know that you can't evaluate a career based upon 11 games, but you can get a sense of the upside of a player in 11 games, and i'm impressed so far.

6 goals and 7 points in that short stretch. That's impressive for anyone, much less a player playing in his first career set of NHL games. 6 goals that could easily be 8 or 9, in just 11 games. 4 of those 6 goals have been essentially what you would consider "garbage" goals, but i'd like to dub them "effort" goals. Goals that otherwise wouldn't have been if not for fighting hard for position in front of the net and having the touch to finish them off.

What's funny is that this kid has an outside shot for 20 goals this year in less than half a season, and there is a guy saying he's topped out at a 3rd line player. It's simply comical.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I'll gladly take Montoya over most of the prospects in the draft outside of Malkin, Ovechkin, and Olesz. He's been absolutely amazing in the AHL this year and will be a STUD goaltender. He's become very underrated on these boards.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

It's funny cause Cory Schneider( 3 straight shutouts) at #26 could turn out to be better than both Schwarz and Dubnyk.

I think he is already. Schneider was a steal, IMO and I would take him over both Schwarz and Dubnyk at this point. He's going to be a great goalie.

 

[Sammy*]

As early as it may be, Ladd has simply looked amazing so far in NHL action. I know that you can't evaluate a career based upon 11 games, but you can get a sense of the upside of a player in 11 games, and i'm impressed so far.

6 goals and 7 points in that short stretch. That's impressive for anyone, much less a player playing in his first career set of NHL games. 6 goals that could easily be 8 or 9, in just 11 games. 4 of those 6 goals have been essentially what you would consider "garbage" goals, but i'd like to dub them "effort" goals. Goals that otherwise wouldn't have been if not for fighting hard for position in front of the net and having the touch to finish them off.

What's funny is that this kid has an outside shot for 20 goals this year in less than half a season, and there is a guy saying he's topped out at a 3rd line player. It's simply comical.

Whats comical is guys who say he will be better than a 3rd liner based on a 10 game window.
Too funny.

 

[oil slick]

I think he is already. Schneider was a steal, IMO and I would take him over both Schwarz and Dubnyk at this point. He's going to be a great goalie.

Yeah I'd take him over those two also.

Mind you... they were all only drafted about 10 spots apart, so it's not like Schwarz and Dubnyk were top 5 picks and Schneider was a 3rd rounder or anything.

 

[Epsilon]

Whats comical is guys who say he will be better than a 3rd liner based on a 10 game window.
Too funny.

No kidding. I wonder how many people are wishing they hadn't touted Ryan Kelser as a potential top-line scoring player based on a hot start 2 years ago. Could very well be the same thing here.

 

[Seph]

No kidding. I wonder how many people are wishing they hadn't touted Ryan Kelser as a potential top-line scoring player based on a hot start 2 years ago. Could very well be the same thing here.

Could be, but that doesn't mean it is. All Caniac is saying is that Ladd is showing skills and playing above "just a third liner." Doesn't mean he won't end up a third liner, but he has the potential to play above it. And btw, Kesler also could still end up above the third line as well. He's taken a step back from his hot start, but that doesn't mean his development is over. Both these kids have plenty of time to develop still and determine what role they'll play.

Both have shown that they could have more upside than many here think, but like most prospects, none have proven that they'll make good on it. But unlike a lot of prospects, if they don't make good on their upside, their downside is still awfully good.