News Article: If the playoffs do not happen

[Golden_Jet]

Detroit should not have a better chance at 4th, than 1,2 and 3 odds totalled.

 

[thinkwild]

End the war on tanking. Its not working anyway. Bad teams still tank, only now they get punished more. Are we really happier to reward the leafs or Pens this year instead of Detroit that tanked cause they were really bad and really need a top pick? Maybe we need to get over it. Teams are going to tank. No more lottery?

 

[Micklebot]

Are you purposely misunderstanding what I'm saying? Those teams were entered collectively into the draft. If any of the placeholder teams won, they would all be entered into an evenly weighted second lottery for that pick. You've massively increased the odds of any of those teams winning the lottery pick by grouping them together.

Why not just wait until the play-in is done and re-seed those eliminated teams by pts%? Why would you make this system unless you specifically wanted to create an advantage for one of the larger market teams? If the 12th place team had won, this discussion would be over. We'd say "wow, can't believe that luck" and we could move the discussion on to whether the lottery is weighted correctly and whether the lottery is helping the worst teams get better. Instead, to appease a few teams, we're f***ing over 8 of the worst teams from this season.

Again, you cannot just pretend the first phase didn't happen. Had no placeholder won a pick you wouldn't be complaining how they reduced those teams chances of a top 3 pick to zero, you have to consider the combined odds of both phases, not doing so is just plain whining or not umderstanding how probabilities work.

With the current system two of the biggest markets in Chicago and Mtl have actually saw their odds get worse not better. They were fortunate that a placeholder won, but overall taken on the whole their odds were better under normal rules.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Again, you cannot just pretend the first phase didn't happen. Had no placeholder won a pick you wouldn't be complaining how they reduced those teams chances of a top 3 pick to zero, you have to consider the combined odds of both phases, not doing so is just plain whining or not umderstanding how probabilities work.

With the current system two of the biggest markets in Chicago and Mtl have actually saw their odds get worse not better. They were fortunate that a placeholder won, but overall taken on the whole their odds were better under normal rules.

No they weren't! Under normal rules, they wouldn't have lumped 8-15 together. Whether they got 1 of the lottery picks or all 3, they increased the odds that the collective group could win any of those spots by creating a "placeholder pool". Now instead of one single 12th place team winning the 1OA, we get to watch as multiple teams get an equal shot when that's not how the lottery works in the first place.

It could have all been avoided if they had waited until the play-in round was over and just re-seeded everyone by pts%. You think it's fair for a team that is sitting on 86pts (pacing for 100) to get an equal shot at 1OA in the second lottery round as a team with 71pts (pacing for 82)? All because of the possibility they could lose that play-in? That's f***ing insane to me. They could have done the play-in, put all the losing teams into the lottery pool by pts% and drawn the balls and seen where things land.

And again, this lottery is very very skewed if the worst teams can't seem to win more than 20% of the top 3 picks that are available. The way they put this thing together takes this year's lottery to the next level of awfulness. So tell me, who are they actually helping when the worst teams overwhelmingly lose out on the best picks?

 

[Micklebot]

No they weren't! Under normal rules, they wouldn't have lumped 8-15 together. Whether they got 1 of the lottery picks or all 3, they increased the odds that the collective group could win any of those spots by creating a "placeholder pool". Now instead of one single 12th place team winning the 1OA, we get to watch as multiple teams get an equal shot when that's not how the lottery works in the first place.

It could have all been avoided if they had waited until the play-in round was over and just re-seeded everyone by pts%. You think it's fair for a team that is sitting on 86pts (pacing for 100) to get an equal shot at 1OA in the second lottery round as a team with 71pts (pacing for 82)? All because of the possibility they could lose that play-in? That's f***ing insane to me. They could have done the play-in, put all the losing teams into the lottery pool by pts% and drawn the balls and seen where things land.

And again, this lottery is very very skewed if the worst teams can't seem to win more than 20% of the top 3 picks that are available. The way they put this thing together takes this year's lottery to the next level of awfulness. So tell me, who are they actually helping when the worst teams overwhelmingly lose out on the best picks?

Im not going to give free internet lectures on high school math so this will be my last post on the subject, all the play in teams that lose (or the teams 8 to 15 in pts % if there is no rtp) have the exact same chance, 12.5% x 24.5% or 3.06% for 3 teams that was worse then normal, for 3 in it was slightly better, and for one roughly the same. Normally their odds range from 1% to 6%. It doesn't change the odds at all for the other 7 teams (like us) nor does it increase the odds that any of them as a group would have won, it just distributes that groups odds evenly.

The play in was dumb from the start, the pens should not be forced to earn their way into the playoffs, but as the nhl has insisted to go that route, teams that lose the playin deserve to be treated as any other team that misses the playoffs would. The decision to hold the lottey now vs afyer the pkayoffs has given a small advantage to the best 3 teams that miss the playoffs at the cost of the worst three teams that miss relative to normal years but it changes nothing for us.