News Article: If the playoffs do not happen

[Cat Herder]

Well they should have announced this prior to the draft.. so we know for sure that they will not do a whole re-do of the draft and we will keep 3&5

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[Adele Dazeem]

That wouldn't be good for us right? Islanders have it protected.

 

[Cat Herder]

That wouldn't be good for us right? Islanders have it protected.

Isles pick is lottery protected.. but I would rather have them win it than have Habs, Pens, or Leafs win it

 

[BankStreetParade]

Well they should have announced this prior to the draft.. so we know for sure that they will not do a whole re-do of the draft and we will keep 3&5

Man, it's amazing how they let the big teams have their cake and eat it too. The 15th place team that would have had a 1.0% chance at 1OA will now have a 12.5% chance.

 

[guyzeur]

Man, it's amazing how they let the big teams have their cake and eat it too. The 15th place team that would have had a 1.0% chance at 1OA will now have a 12.5% chance.

No It's not, the 8th to 15th had a collective chance of 24.5%. With that, they got the 1st OV. Phase 2 will decide which of the 8 teams gets the prize. 100%/8 = 12.5%

 

[thinkwild]

What if the Leafs say, get swept in the play-in round but then before the rest of the teams can finish their series, the league has to shut down again? That could be a bitter fight for which team gets the 12.5%.

 

[BankStreetParade]

No It's not, the 8th to 15th had a collective chance of 24.5%. With that, they got the 1st OV. Phase 2 will decide which of the 8 teams gets the prize. 100%/8 = 12.5%

That's exactly what I just described. The 15th OA team, which had a 1.0% chance of winning 1OA in the phase 1 draft, will now have a 12.5% chance thanks to another team in their grouping getting that first overall lottery hit.

It's the definition of the big teams getting their cake and eating it too. Why else does a team get such a substantial increase in their lottery odds??? They have a better shot at 1OA than our SJS pick did and almost as good a chance as our pick. That's exceptionally wrong and unfair.

 

[Micklebot]

That's exactly what I just described. The 15th OA team, which had a 1.0% chance of winning 1OA in the phase 1 draft, will now have a 12.5% chance thanks to another team in their grouping getting that first overall lottery hit.

It's the definition of the big teams getting their cake and eating it too. Why else does a team get such a substantial increase in their lottery odds??? They have a better shot at 1OA than our SJS pick did and almost as good a chance as our pick. That's exceptionally wrong and unfair.

You can't just pretend the phase 1 lottery never happened, the odds of one of those teams as a group winning 1st OA this year is no different then it is any other year, the only difference we are figuring it out in two steps and the group as a whole had even odds at anout 3%.

It sucks that we didn't win but your desperately looking for something to complain about if you are trying to suggest their odds drastically increased.

 

[BankStreetParade]

You can't just pretend the phase 1 lottery never happened, the odds of one of those teams as a group winning 1st OA this year is no different then it is any other year, the only difference we are figuring it out in two steps and the group as a whole had even odds at anout 3%.

It sucks that we didn't win but your desperately looking for something to complain about if you are trying to suggest their odds drastically increased.

Yes, the odds are very different. The NHL could have waited until the play-in round was done and slotted the ousted teams by points percentage. The 12th place team would have won the top pick and the conversation would be over. Instead, they cow-towed to a bunch of big market teams who huffed and puffed to get their way.

They created a system where you increase the collective chances of the remaining non-playoff teams by grouping them together and creating a 25% chance that one of them gets a lottery pick. So a team that would have been slotted 15th and would usually have a 1.0% chance of winning the top pick will now have a 12.5% chance thanks to the fact that one of the placeholder teams won the top pick. How is this like any other year? Have they grouped teams 8 to 15 in past years and then given them a second lottery to get an even higher chance at at a lottery pick?

The NHL f***ing blew it. They've left the worst teams in the lurch, again. And as I've pointed out, if you've only awarded 3 teams a top-three pick out of the 15 teams that have finished in the bottom 3 over the last 5 years, you're clearly failing with your "lottery percentages". That number should be significantly higher. It's an idiotic system and this draw was the cherry on top.

 

[BondraTime]

The odds are different.

The 15th place team goes from having a 1% chance in the regular lottery to a 3% chance in the new lottery. The teams in 12th-15th all saw their odds at picks 1, 2 and 3 increase.

It literally benefits the best teams in the lottery and punishes the worst.

The team in the 11th spot stayed the same at 3%, the teams from 12-15 all saw their odds increase, while teams from 8-10 saw their odds decrease.

 

[Upgrayedd]

I assume this would be the biggest jump in recent history for a team, anyone have a listing of other recent jumpers? In this case from what I read it went from 12 to 1 kinda ish.

 

[Golden_Jet]

So if qualifying round occurs it’s team E
If not it’s one of the 8?

 

[BondraTime]

So if qualifying round occurs it’s team E
If not it’s one of the 8?

No, either way it’s 1 of the 8.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

So if qualifying round occurs it’s team E
If not it’s one of the 8?

Yes, that's what I heard today.

 

[BondraTime]

Yes, that's what I heard today.

No, either way it’s a lottery with 12.5% odds.

 

[Micklebot]

Yes, the odds are very different. The NHL could have waited until the play-in round was done and slotted the ousted teams by points percentage. The 12th place team would have won the top pick and the conversation would be over. Instead, they cow-towed to a bunch of big market teams who huffed and puffed to get their way.

They created a system where you increase the collective chances of the remaining non-playoff teams by grouping them together and creating a 25% chance that one of them gets a lottery pick. So a team that would have been slotted 15th and would usually have a 1.0% chance of winning the top pick will now have a 12.5% chance thanks to the fact that one of the placeholder teams won the top pick. How is this like any other year? Have they grouped teams 8 to 15 in past years and then given them a second lottery to get an even higher chance at at a lottery pick?

The NHL f***ing blew it. They've left the worst teams in the lurch, again. And as I've pointed out, if you've only awarded 3 teams a top-three pick out of the 15 teams that have finished in the bottom 3 over the last 5 years, you're clearly failing with your "lottery percentages". That number should be significantly higher. It's an idiotic system and this draw was the cherry on top.

No, a team that would have had a 1% chance had a 3% chance and a team that had a 6% chance had a 3%. No team suddenly got a 12.5% chance because as a group still had to first win the phase 1 draw. Mtl, chi and phx have small reason to complain about their odds getting worse, thats it. This affect us in no real way. The other play in teams saw a small increase or stayed pretty much flat.

Complaing about the 12% 2nd draw as a sen fan is just lioking for an excuse to whine.

 

[Micklebot]

The odds are different.

The 15th place team goes from having a 1% chance in the regular lottery to a 3% chance in the new lottery. The teams in 12th-15th all saw their odds at picks 1, 2 and 3 increase.

It literally benefits the best teams in the lottery and punishes the worst.

The team in the 11th spot stayed the same at 3%, the teams from 12-15 all saw their odds increase, while teams from 8-10 saw their odds decrease.

only really punishes 3 teams and by a fairly small degree. Not worth worrying about as a fan of a team not directly impacted.

 

[Golden_Jet]

No, either way it’s a lottery with 12.5% odds.

This is why I asked as there is confusion.
I can’t see it being the same thing , then why say if no qualifying, it works one way, otherwise should not even mention if qualifying happens or not.
Or is team E, the 5th worst point percentage after the 8 rounds.

 

[BondraTime]

only really punishes 3 teams and by a fairly small degree. Not worth worrying about as a fan of a team not directly impacted.

More so that the best teams see an increase, which makes very little sense.

 

[dumbdick]

Man, it's amazing how they let the big teams have their cake and eat it too. The 15th place team that would have had a 1.0% chance at 1OA will now have a 12.5% chance.

Yeah, this was a weakness of the design. They could have fixed that by re-scaling the draft odds among the play-in losers.

The counter argument is that the play-in hurts teams like the pens by erasing their standings lead pre-Covid. This is their compensation. I'm okay with how they did it.

 

[BondraTime]

This is why I asked as there is confusion.
I can’t see it being the same thing , then why say if no qualifying, it works one way, otherwise should not even mention if qualifying happens or not.
Or is team E, the 5th worst point percentage after the 8 rounds.

If play happens, it’s all the teams that lose the play in, which could include teams like Pittsburgh.

If only in doesn’t happen, it only includes the teams from 8th-15th last in the league. Teams like Pittsburgh, NYI, Edmonton aren’t included.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

No, either way it’s a lottery with 12.5% odds.

Just saying that it was "place holder E" that won the (first) Lottery as stated by Bob McKenzie on sportcentre this morning.

Doesn't mean that whatever team that ends up being "E" or was "E" based of P% gets the FOA pick .... you're correct .... after the Play in round, the losers will have a 12.5% chance at FOA ..... BUT if the play in and playoffs are cancelled, the nest group of worst teams at the end of the season, ranked P%, will have a 1 in 8 shot at the FOA pick.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

That wouldn't be good for us right? Islanders have it protected.

There are four scenarios for the Islanders pick.

A) 13th, 14th, or 15th in 2020
Playoffs happen, Islanders lose play in

B) 21st in 2020
Playoffs don't happen, teams are seeded by point percentage.

C) Unprotected 1st Round Pick in 2020
Playoffs happen, Islanders lose play in, but they win the lottery.

D) As low as 31st in 2020
Playoffs happen, Islanders win play in. There's way too much variance to say where the pick will go, but odds are it will be something in the low 20s. If the Islanders make the conference final or better, it moves to the last few picks of the round. We get an additional 3rd rounder if they win the cup, but this doesn't offset the value we lose by moving the 1st/2nd to the end of each round.

The best scenario, in my opinion, is scenario A. We have their 2nd rounder as well, so if they lose the play in, the 2nd rounder could be as high as 44.

 

[BankStreetParade]

No, a team that would have had a 1% chance had a 3% chance and a team that had a 6% chance had a 3%. No team suddenly got a 12.5% chance because as a group still had to first win the phase 1 draw. Mtl, chi and phx have small reason to complain about their odds getting worse, thats it. This affect us in no real way. The other play in teams saw a small increase or stayed pretty much flat.

Complaing about the 12% 2nd draw as a sen fan is just lioking for an excuse to whine.

No, a team that would have had a 1% chance had a 3% chance and a team that had a 6% chance had a 3%. No team suddenly got a 12.5% chance because as a group still had to first win the phase 1 draw. Mtl, chi and phx have small reason to complain about their odds getting worse, thats it. This affect us in no real way. The other play in teams saw a small increase or stayed pretty much flat.

Complaing about the 12% 2nd draw as a sen fan is just lioking for an excuse to whine.

Are you purposely misunderstanding what I'm saying? Those teams were entered collectively into the draft. If any of the placeholder teams won, they would all be entered into an evenly weighted second lottery for that pick. You've massively increased the odds of any of those teams winning the lottery pick by grouping them together.

Why not just wait until the play-in is done and re-seed those eliminated teams by pts%? Why would you make this system unless you specifically wanted to create an advantage for one of the larger market teams? If the 12th place team had won, this discussion would be over. We'd say "wow, can't believe that luck" and we could move the discussion on to whether the lottery is weighted correctly and whether the lottery is helping the worst teams get better. Instead, to appease a few teams, we're f***ing over 8 of the worst teams from this season.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Yeah, this was a weakness of the design. They could have fixed that by re-scaling the draft odds among the play-in losers.

The counter argument is that the play-in hurts teams like the pens by erasing their standings lead pre-Covid. This is their compensation. I'm okay with how they did it.

I totally get that there was going to be some type of disadvantage somewhere but IMO they went too far the other way to compensate. The slight disadvantage of losing the play-in should not result in a 1OA selection possibility. There was a middle ground that could have worked for everyone, instead it reeks of the NHL favouring their big market teams.

Also, my bigger displeasure is with the track record of the lottery weighting and how the worst teams can't seem to secure top 3 picks. The lottery is disproportionately disadvantaging the worst teams. If only 3/15 teams who finish bottom 3 win 1st/2nd/3rd OA picks in the last 5 years, that's a big problem. Last night was the straw that broke the camel's back.