Post-Game Talk: If Reider had scored, we'd probably of won 5-1

Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
Oct 8, 2017
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Love the fancy stats, but when was the last time you saw RNH make an actual play with the puck in the o-zone? And by 'make a play' I mean beat a man with his speed or his puck handling or make a good pass that sets up a team mate in an advantageous position. He seems utterly incapable of accomplishing it anymore, even on the PP. Perfect example the other night when he carried the puck to the blueline on a four on two, panicked and made a lateral pass to Chiasson who was moving slower than RNH. Who does that? He has so little confidence in his ability to beat anyone that he defers to Chiasson now.

Nuge has one assist, only one, since Feb 7. 20 games have elapsed and that one assist was a 2nd assist on a PP that Drai cashed. Nuge at present seems most interested in positioning in front of the net and being the shooter. On a team that has two of the elite goal scorers in hockey. But he'd prefer to let them do the digging. Nuge is the allstar in his mind setting up in primo areas and taking ample shots.

In anycase I have no idea how a premium Center played 6M longterm can go this long without an assist. Its not entirely misrepresentive of play either. He's not making a lot of good setups and when he attempts setups invariably the pass isn't very good.
 

Drivesaitl

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I pulled up all the stats to show how false your claim of "Gagner has never gotten the good linemates or ones better than him" and you conveniently just skipped it.

I think you showed that Gagner had Hall and Eberle one season before Nuge was here. What about the other years. I'm familiar with the numbers as well. I've researched and seen them before. Next you'll state Gagner played a lot with Hemsky as well, (even though that was dying on a vine Hemsky) and thought Gagner played with Penner. Although this is curious. The indication that GAgner benefited from Penner entirely excludes that Penner had some of the most productive times in his career playing with Sam. I'm not certain I said Gagner never played with good linemates. I think I framed it as Nuge had better linemates historically. If you insist I can look it my exact wording but that was multiple pages ago now.

But in anycase, would you honestly consider me to be evasive, or debating points too extensively. Because you've accused me of both if we're being honest here. So if you setup that kind of no win dichotomy you'll never be satisfied with my responses, or my limiting replies.

Most posters that disagree with me feel that I belabor discussion too much. I hope some chime in again to remind of that, and that me being evasive is not the usual concern. I'm probably one of the most likely to answer a query of any poster here. In anycase not much is served by this sidebar discussion.
 
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RegDunlop

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Nov 5, 2016
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Edmonton
Well...
I'll chime in!

Love him or hate him i do have to say that @Drivesaitl does respond!

My 2Cs -
Nuge is a hell of a hockey player. An asset to ANY team. Period. As a fan I do understand the frustration though. He does seem to leave us wanting more.
Gagne is a good player as well, not in the same echelon as Nuge though. He brings different attributes though that are assets as well.
And finally Kassian. I am a HUGE Zac fan and always knew he had this play of late in him. But to ignore his bouts of inconsistent and lackadaisical play at times would be dishonest.
 
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Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
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Not relevant at all to the question I asked which was, again, why Drai gets a pass for playing like **** when he's away from 97 but RNH gets shredded for not elevating scrubs like Lucic and Puljujarvi. In fact it's not that he gets a pass: you literally used crap linemates as an excuse for Drai looking bored and sluggish for the first quarter of the season.



15 games, half of which were OT/SO, is "often?" B.S.



Please, Drai is a vet with almost 350 GP in his prime, not some greenhorn.



LOL you make it sound like he was a fourth round pick and not fourth overall.

That said, all that hard work makes his pathetic performance playing with scrubs even more puzzling don't you think?



The fourth highest scorer from the draft class is the 15th best player. Glad we know you aren't serious, because that sounds pretty stupid.



QOT has a much higher impact on performance than QOC. Anyway "I suspect" isn't evidence of anything, especially given your confessed irrational biases here.

Theres not much in this post. interesting as well that you would call me out on stating Drai often plays around 25mins. he has played 25mins or more 16 times. Drai played more than 24mins 8 more times. All of these being a lot of work. Most of the long minutes games occurring under the Hitchcock time frame.

But you seem to think this overwork is insignificant even though Drai is among the forward toi leaders in the entire league.

As far as Nuge there are ample lists that have been made of the 12 -15 players from his draft class that are better players than him. Not all of them are forwards, not all of them are evaluated strictly on points. You've seen the lists before. They populate HF, blogs, hockey publications etc.
 

XXIV97

Registered User
Jun 2, 2016
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Does anyone know why I can't participate in polls? I changed my email a couple of minutes ago & got it verified.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
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Waterloo Ontario
Theres some distortion here as well. If you want to gauge a coaching trust level indicator the most plain is minutes played. Obviously if Drai is being whipped like a horse to play 25mins a lot, and Nuge is more around 20 mins it suggests which player is the more adaptable, and favored player. I think toi speaks loudly to that, and a lot of coaches feel that its indicative as well. The real indication of trust from a coach is whether you get MORE or less shifts and toi in general. My own take from minutes played and usage is that every coach we've had here respects Drai's contribution quite a lot and as much as they trust any player here.

I won't respond point by point to your Corsi stats because you already know I figure that these are derivative and not entirely substantiated stats. The object of hockey is to score goals and prevent goals. It isn't to take volumes of pointless shots or prevent every harmless one. RNH would have elevated Corsi numbers simply on the basis of there being no shot he doesn't like. The amazing thing is he's taken the same amount of sog as Drai yet Leon has scored 20 more goals. That in itself would suggest not all shots are equal in respect of the two players. Nuge also misses the net more. So the total shot attempts Nuge takes might even be higher than the 2nd highest goal scorer in hockey.

What I tend to give more creedence to is on ice GF/GA/60mins, as well as raw score data. Situational, etc. I prefer looking at goal numbers vs shot numbers. I've explained why lots of times.

Aside from that of course I watch all the games and observe respective coverage in all zones. I've observed Nuge coverage so much at times it seems as if it consists of standing right by a goal scorer, just standing there within arm length defending air. So often Nuge is right next to a goal scorer, standing there, and doesn't impede in any way.

In a recent game Stone is right in front of the net alongside Nuge. He takes one whack at the puck, doesn't score, gets a rebound, and pots it home. The sequence takes maybe 2 secs, Nuge just standing there, he Knows Stone is there, I suspect he knows he can't prevent Stone from positiing even if he tried so he DOESN"T EVEN TOUCH HIM. Nuge doesn't even move towards Stone until the goal is scored. I should jot down footnotes on how often this occurs with Nuge.

Nuge has high GA/60mins relative to what he produces. While one expects elite producers to have high GA, and both McD and DRai also do, in Nuge's case the high GA is had without the pts generation that would supercede or even excuse that. Nuge is -16 and in todays NHL of matching strength to strength he does have some easy minutes at times. Especially when the team divides up Centers. If McD has his own line, Drai has his own line, and Nuge has his opponents obviously commit better resource to stopping Drai, the 2nd highest goal scorer in the whole league, and of course they would. If you want to argue that provide a clear rational for it not being the case.

Similarly on first unit PP McD and Drai get primary marking and coverage focus and absorb much more of the punishment. Nuge, in turn, is often left unmarked because teams overly commit to McDrai coverage. So Nuge should do very well with that. Unfortunately Nuge isn't potting enough PP goals or pts that would reflect him not being covered alongside two of the most premier players in the game.

Finally, as I've stated, and I'll state it again because its accurate, McD + Nuge w/o Drai have negative goal differential in EV play. This is a concern, is it not? How can a team win when it so often has 2 Centers playing together and the pair are not even outscoring EV?

First off you are changing the narrative here. I am not trying to prove that Nuge is a better player than Leon. He's not. I am simply countering the comments you made that do not fit the statistical evidence. Specifically in this case that Nuge drags down McDavid.

As for the negative goal differential with McDavid. I am happy to admit that this year the two have not had a lot of success together. Though in the larger sample size the GF% is positive so this suggest that there is also a sample size issue at work here. Nuge only played 339 minutes with McDavid vs 653 for Leon. Adding in the second year brings those numbers up to 539 and 1145. So the two year sample size with Nuge is at least close to the one year sample size with Leon. But in any case, the comment I was responding too was that Nuge drags McDavid down. If that were the case you would see McDavid's numbers away from Nuge be better. It turns out that this is only the case when he plays with Leon. Take both away and the numbers are substantially worse. This suggests that both players contribute positively to McDavid's success as one might expect. But clearly Leon has a much greater impact on McDavid. Which is entirely my point.

The other part of the equation that you seem to be trying to explain away is that away from McDavid the two have similar results. Pointing out Nuge's -16 does not change this. Statistically away from McDavid over the last two years Leon has had a goal differential rate of -.93g/60 vs -.45g/60 for Nuge. If you look at this year you get -.76g/60 for Leon and -.59 for Nuge. Specifically, 2.2GF/60 and 3.13Ga/60 for Leon vs 1.96GF/60 and 2.41GA/60 for Nuge over the last two years. For this year the numbers are 1.78 GF/60 2.54Ga/60 for Leon and 1.97GF/60 vs 2.56GA/60 for Nuge. The difference in the two players +/- essentially comes down to time on the ice with McDeravid and the success they have when they are with him. However, any way you cut it the team actually did better when Nuge was centering the second line than it did when Leon was. Add to this the huge gain the Oilers get from having Leon with McDavid and it seems clear that the best success this team has happens when Leon plays with McDavid and Nuge is the second line center. No other combination works as well. These are not my subjective opinions. This is simply what actually happens.

The issue with your observational comments is that your self admitted bias means that you will see what you are looking for. That is mistakes that reinforce your position. Your not alone in this respect. This as I am sure you know is a universal human trait. I on the other hand am far more likely to remember good plays by the same player that you dismiss. This is why trying to discuss individual plays makes little sense. And your comments about teams committing better resources to stop Leon when he is the second line center than they would when Nuge is in that role in order to explain away what really happened has nothing to back it up . The reality is that teams worry about McDavid. He is the guy who they game plan against not Leon or Nuge.

What I don't understand is why you feel that the way to praise Draisailt is to rag on Nuge and that any rebuttal of your inaccurate claims about Nuge is an attack on Leon. Leon's accomplishments speak for themselves.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,611
19,899
Waterloo Ontario
Love the fancy stats, but when was the last time you saw RNH make an actual play with the puck in the o-zone? And by 'make a play' I mean beat a man with his speed or his puck handling or make a good pass that sets up a team mate in an advantageous position. He seems utterly incapable of accomplishing it anymore, even on the PP. Perfect example the other night when he carried the puck to the blueline on a four on two, panicked and made a lateral pass to Chiasson who was moving slower than RNH. Who does that? He has so little confidence in his ability to beat anyone that he defers to Chiasson now.
The problem with debating this sort of post is that it comes down to natural observational bias. We see what we want to see. You and I watch the same player and see very different things. Which of us is right? That said I actually agree that Nuge has had much of his creativity coached out of him. Unfortunately, this is true of many players today. What I do not agree with is the narrative that seems to be forming around here that he is ineffective in the role he has been given.
 

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