If Mike Bossy Was Never Injured..

Discussion in 'The History of Hockey' started by Kane One, May 1, 2011.

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  1. Kane One

    Kane One Registered User

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    Would he ever be considered the greatest hockey player all-time? He would have easily had more goals than Gretzky, but I'm not too sure about assists. He only played only 10 seasons and ended his career with 573G-553A-1126P. If his last season was a full season played, he would have easily scored at least 50G, which would have ended his career with every season with at least 50 goals. Maybe he wouldn't be the #1 hockey player ever, but how about 2nd?
     
  2. SidGenoMario

    SidGenoMario Registered User

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  3. What? Even if he had 6 more years of that he still wouldn't be a top 10 player ever. He was never the 2nd best player in the league, ever... so how could he have possibly been regarded as the 2nd best player ever?
     
  4. Kane One

    Kane One Registered User

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    I mean if he kept his pace up though out an average length career, instead of an injury-shortened career.
     
  5. reckoning

    reckoning Registered User

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    I don't think he would've "easily" had more goals than Gretzky. Even if you disregard his 10th season with the missed injury time, he still had less goals in his first 9 years than Gretzky did in his first 9 years. As he aged, his production would've decreased just like it does for every other player.

    With no injuries, I'd estimate Bossy would've ended up with between 800-900 goals. That is in Gretzky's range, but if we're taking away Bossy's injuries then we should also take away Gretzky's. Wayne may have hit 1000 goals with no injuries. Then you have to consider how many Lemieux would have if he wasn't injured, or how many Bobby Hull would have if he didn't go to the WHA, or how many Brett Hull would have if his prime was in the high-scoring 80s rather than the lower-scoring 90s, etc.
     
  6. kmad

    kmad riot survivor

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    Or if Joe Malone played 80 games a season!
     
  7. Vilgrain Headache

    Vilgrain Headache Registered User

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    or if he hadn't been caught buggering that encephalitic little person while wearing clown shoes behind the denny's in 1982?
     
  8. I'm always excited to play with statistics :)

    Mike Bossy Career Statistics: 573+553=1126 in 752
    Average Game Played of Top 20 Scorers in NHL History: 1419.85~>1420

    We're going to try to recreate what his last 668 games could have been like...
    Alright bare with me.

    Over his 10 season career he averaged a 2.51% declination in points and a 2.32% declination in goals a season.

    By having that declination in each statistic over the coarse of 9 seasons and having him play on average 74.22 games a season I generated these numbers
    ______GP_G__A_P_
    (87-88)74 44 43 86
    (88-89)75 43 42 85
    (89-90)74 41 41 82
    (91-92)75 41 40 81
    (92-93)74 39 39 78
    (93-94)74 38 38 76
    (94-95)74 37 37 75
    (95-96)74 36 37 73
    (96-97)74 35 36 71

    Ending Career Totals: 929 G, 906 A, 1834 P in 1420 GP
     
  9. kmad

    kmad riot survivor

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    You're assuming a linear decline... I would argue that statistical decline accelerates as you pass 30 and close in on 40.
     
  10. Percentage isn't linear
     
  11. kmad

    kmad riot survivor

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    Well a percentage can't be linear because it is just a representation of something. What I am saying is that you are anticipating his decline to be a linear decline. It is linear because it is a fixed percentage. A steady 2.something each year... is unrealistically optimistic.
     
  12. Alright you run the numbers then... Put on a 1/2% accelerator then each season.
     
  13. **** since I have nothing to do and my medication makes it so I can't sit still I'll go ahead and do it.

    I'll add on a .5%/yr accelerator

    brb.
     
  14. Alright here we go
    Season_GP_G__A__P_
    1987-88 74 44 42 86
    1988-89 75 39 42 81
    1989-90 74 34 40 74
    1990-91 75 30 39 70
    1991-92 74 25 38 63
    1993-94 74 21 37 58
    1994-95 74 17 36 53
    1995-96 74 13 35 48
    1996-97 74 9 34 43

    Totals: GP 1420; G 806; A 896; P 1702
     
  15. reckoning

    reckoning Registered User

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    I see what you're trying to do, but I think the decline in production would've been more severe in his late-30s than you have there.

    For example, you have Bossy scoring 35 goals in 96-97 as a 40 year
    old. To put the likelihood of that into perspective, in that season Gretzky had only 25 goals and Kurri only had 13. And they were both 4 years younger than Bossy would've been.

    It might be better to look at how far most players production falls between 31-40 as compared to 21-30, and use that as an estimation. But even that would be a small sample because not many players have 20 season careers.

    Also not to nitpick, but I don't think Bossy would've been able to play 74 games in the '94-'95 season (48 game schedule ;))



    EDIT: I just saw your second simulation and it looks much more realistic.
     
  16. crobro

    crobro Registered User

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    bossy would have been traded to kings sometime in the late 80`s.
     
  17. WingsFan95

    WingsFan95 Registered User

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    I'd say it would be unfair to think Bossy wouldn't have spurts of great seasons as well, you're pinning his decline as constant.

    Look at 78-81, there's a dip in 79-80.

    Also, 82-86 is extremely consistent.

    Depending on what team he played for, he could have had a 50 goal season at 33 or 36, etc.

    Look at Jagr's pace:

    He scored 54 goals in 05-06 after not hitting 50 since 01, and gotta go back to 95-96 to see the other time he had a 50+ goal season.

    And what about Selanne's 05-07 seasons?

    In 85-86 Bossy's offensive production on his team was great, even accounting with Dennis Potvin.

    And yes, if Bossy went on with Gretzky I can only imagine his goals production would have skyrocketed.

    Look at Gretz's 90-91 season, with Bossy at RW, he would have scored more than Tomas Sandstrom's 45.
     
  18. boredmale

    boredmale Registered User Sponsor

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    If Bossy had a relatively injury free career I am guessing he might have had a couple 50 goal seasons(or close to) left in him then you would start seeing a dramatic drop(3-4 seasons closer to 30, then 20 range after that)

    If he played 8 more seasons he most likely would have cracked 800 goals but probably not more then 850

    As other pointed out who he played with would factor heavily into how many goals he would get as well
     
  19. canucks4ever

    canucks4ever Registered User

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    Bossy always finished 4th to 6th in scoring, i'm sorry he can never rank above jagr and mikita, they blow him away.
     
  20. ES

    ES Registered User

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    Careers were a bit shorter than many have now. In the 1990s only Larry Robinson and Kjell Samuelsson played into 40s.

    So thinking that Bossy (born 1957) would have retired in mid 1990s, probably between 1994 and 1996. I think he could have certainly passed Howe in goals, but about Gretzky not so sure.

    Let's say five years (1987-1992) with 35 goals /year
    Three years with 25 goals/year

    This would bring 250 goals in total, putting his total to 823. Still 71 short of Gretzky's final total.
     
  21. ozzie

    ozzie Registered User

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    How much did he smoke again? He wasn't exactly known for working out and taking care of his body.

    You can run all the numbers you want, but his career most likely would have declined rapidly. His output in the early 90's might have been laughable compared to his standards.

    He reminds me of Lafleur, we saw him peak and after that there wasn't much left in the lungs. Bossy is very similar.
     
  22. Yeah basically this. Bossy's prime was definitely one of the best ever, mainly when you factor in that it was 9 straight seasons, but he's a classic case of an 80's player getting overrated due to his raw totals. I honestly don't see how he's any better than Selanne, and no that's not a joke. (Don't get into playoffs Bossy played for a top 5 dynasty ever, Selanne is over a point per game in playoff games in his prime in a time where hardly anyone averages over a point per game in the playoffs, and has an amazing international resume).

    Selanne is basically Bossy, who instead of retiring had an abysmal 3 seasons due to injury, then came back not a whole lot worse than he was.

    Add to that he was a better rookie than Bossy, which is saying a lot, and also as good a 40 year old as we've seen, except for Howe, and arguably Lidstrom.
     
    Last edited by moderator : May 2, 2011
  23. BraveCanadian

    BraveCanadian Registered User

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    Contradiction. Either he was one of the best ever based on those seasons or he isn't.

    Answered your own question! Selanne was completely underwhelming in his playoff career. Period.

    Bossy: one of the best playoff performers in NHL history including leading the playoffs in goalscoring with 17 goals three seasons in a row.

    Other players in NHL history have to bear this (Dionne for example) and so will Selanne.

    And this constant international resume crutch for Selanne is a joke.
    Because he came over later, he had the opportunity to play in the Olympics. The majority of real players were in Russia or the Canada Cup up until NHLers were allowed to play the Olympics.

    Bossy played very well in the 81 and 84 Canada Cups, losing one and winning one. Selanne had 9 points in 10 games played in the Canada Cup before NHLers became Olympians. Bossy, 13G and 20 points in 15 games.

    Selanne's Olympic "record" has more to do with playing more games than anyone in the modern time period than anything.

    (Not that Selanne isn't a fabulously talented player)

    Laughable logic. Selanne's better rookie season came in the same sort of freakish season (92-93) that you discount Bossy's raw numbers for earlier...

    Both of them set the record for goals by a rookie in their respective times so I consider it pretty much a wash on that.

    Selanne is definitely aging like fine wine, though!

    I know your arguments are always that newer players are better but you're not going to find a lot of support for Bossy = Selanne in my opinion.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2011
  24. RECsGuy*

    RECsGuy* Guest

    Greatest pure goal scorer in the sport's history. There is no HHOFer more underrated than The Boss...

     
  25. Not really... he was one of the 30-40 best, which is obviously amazing, but not top 5 or close to best ever, which is overrating him.



    For one thing, scoring was much higher in Bossy's time so his international resume is not as good as Selanne's. In any year Selanne hasn't been injured in the playoffs he's done better than average, and Bossy was obviously better in the playoffs but Selanne's overall career is atleast as impressive to me if not more.



    Laughable logic? Selanne lead the league in goals in his rookie season. We know that Bossy did not. Doesn't matter what freak year it was or whether it was 200 goals or 30 goals he lead the league with fact is no one scored more goals than him in his rookie season, this has nothing to do with discounting Bossy's numbers.

    I think they're obviously close overall and don't really care how much support I have in believing Selanne was better. Has nothing to do with him being a newer player either.

    I think Trottier and Potvin were both better than Bossy and if let's say Selanne was paired on a team with Forsberg and Bourque for the first 9 years of his injury free career opinions would be just as in favour of Selanne as Bossy. Overall I just think Selanne was the slightly better talent and player.
     

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