If Gretzky started playing in todays NHL

daver

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Back to the original topic:

NHL scoring has plummeted since this thread was started. In 2013-14, the highest non-Crosby player had 87 points. In 2014-15 (Crosby's mumps year), the Art Ross winner had 87 points. So let's use 87 points as the standard.

From 1981-82 to 1985-86, Gretzky averaged about 207 points per season. The highest scoring non-Oiler non-Lemieux (Bossy, Stastny, Goulet, Hawerchuk, Bossy) averaged about 129 points during this time period, or 62% of what Gretzky averaged.

87 points is 62% of 140 points.

Statistically this makes sense but it's hard not to think that today's scoring environment (lower TOI, lower PP time, more balanced scoring) marginalizes elite talent to a certain extent and brings them closer to the pack.

Safe to say Wayne at his peak would be winning every Art Ross by a significant margin but 120 - 130 points seems more realistic. A peak Crosby would be in the 100 -105 range, peak Jagr (or other Tier Two players like Lafleur, Espo, Howe, Hull) - 100-110 range.
 

daver

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Which definitely would be enough to beat Crosby.

But outside of Gretzky, who has ever had so good start to their career as Crosby? I don't think even Lemieux was able to be as good as Crosby was in his first two years.

I remember people talking about how good he would eventually come and even you, Phil, wrote on this very forum that you could see Crosby going on the 170 point territory. It wasn't as if it was an absurd statement either. Crosby was on fire in his sophomore season and there was a lot of talk about him being Gretzky-level player.

Ten years in and we all know that wasn't the case. Not even nearly. So, in a way, his career has been on the downfall since his sophomore season. When compared to expectations. He's still the best player of his generation. But not on the level most of us expected after his sophomore season.

In retrospect, I think the idea that Crosby was as NHL-ready as a generational prospect as ever been and hit his peak almost from the very start of his career is more believable than he was destined to hit Wayne/Mario type stratosphere but was sidelined by injuries.

That being said, I believe he would have, and still could, end up with a career that firmly puts him in the 2nd tier of forwards below the Big 3.
 

seventieslord

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Yeah. That sounds about right.

So, in this comparison Gretzky's first year in the NHL is valid comparison to Crosby's first year in the NHL. And so on. His WHA year is not counted, even if he played against men in pro league. But so do a lot of other players too. Especially players coming from Europe. We don't take their pro seasons in KHL/SEL/Liiga/etc. in to account if they come right after they are drafted, so we shouldn't count Gretzky's WHA year as comparable to Crosby's first NHL season.

It then becomes pretty clear that Gretzky had superior two first seasons compared to Crosby, who might just be the 2nd best "rookie and sophomore" combo ever. I can't think of anyone who did better.

Gretzky's first year in the NHL is probably around similar tier as Crosby/Ovechkin first year. Bit better, but not by that much. Well, maybe Ovechkin's was even better. So, if he started at the same time, these three rookies are on same level after first season. Next season, Gretzky beats Crosby and Crosby beats the rest?

Ovechkin is not really comparable this way, because he didn't get to play immediately after being drafted.
 

Plural

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Ovechkin is not really comparable this way, because he didn't get to play immediately after being drafted.

Yes. I know. Just brought it up since it was his rookie season too and it was the first season he was able to play in the NHL.
 

BraveCanadian

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Gretzky was always an amazing ES scorer. Only once in his long career did Gretzky lead the league in PP goals.

Its true that Gretzky is by far the best ES scorer in NHL history but the reason why he didn't lead the league more often in PP points is not because he wasn't effective there as well.

Gretzky is close to Lemieux's (who I think was the best PP forward ever) effectiveness on the PP but got many fewer opportunities during his prime.
 

Big Phil

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Which definitely would be enough to beat Crosby.

But outside of Gretzky, who has ever had so good start to their career as Crosby? I don't think even Lemieux was able to be as good as Crosby was in his first two years.

I remember people talking about how good he would eventually come and even you, Phil, wrote on this very forum that you could see Crosby going on the 170 point territory. It wasn't as if it was an absurd statement either. Crosby was on fire in his sophomore season and there was a lot of talk about him being Gretzky-level player.

Ten years in and we all know that wasn't the case. Not even nearly. So, in a way, his career has been on the downfall since his sophomore season. When compared to expectations. He's still the best player of his generation. But not on the level most of us expected after his sophomore season.

I can vouch by saying that when Crosby finished his 2nd season I certainly felt he was comparable to Lemieux at least. First two seasons:

Gretzky: 137, 164 points
Lemieux: 100, 141
Crosby: 102, 120

Definitely I felt that after two years he was right there with Lemieux. You can argue that with scoring being higher in the mid 1980s that Lemieux's 2nd season is equal to Crosby, certainly not better, I don't think. With Gretzky I certainly thought he was close after two years, but I felt Gretzky was better after two years. Not by a whole lot, but I still knew Year 3 with Gretzky was when he became super human and I wondered how Crosby would ever make that leap. After Year 3 I felt the idea of him being paired with Gretzky had left the building. After Year 3, I still felt he was right there with Lemieux, especially after a strong showing in the playoffs. Year 4 is when Lemieux took off and never looked back and Crosby has never had a season like that and to me it is obvious he'll never be Lemieux now as well.

But in 2007? It was very possible and I put them equal at the time.

Here is a major difference with Crosby and Gretzky. Year 3 Crosby is slow out of the gate, we are all waiting for him to have even MORE than 120 points but even with his high ankle sprain never happening, it wouldn't have happened. He was tied with Lecavalier in points when he went down. Lecavalier was right in his peak, but by January Gretzky had the scoring race practically wrapped up, he wasn't hand in hand with someone of Lecavalier's level at that time.

So for me, why Gretzky would still be as dominant today is because he never took his foot off the pedal. He just simply never stopped trying to score. You see this all the time with Crosby, where it almost seems like he doesn't want to show up the other team, or maybe he doesn't have it in him. With Gretzky he had it in him and just never quit. If he would do the same today who in the world would keep up with him?

The nhl officially rules it as the age you end the season as. So 1979-80 gretzky was 18 years old when it started and 19 when it ended. So officially he was 19 his rookie year

Gretzky turned 19 in January, Crosby in August. Bottom line, they both started at 18, around here we usually say that is their "18 year old" season. Plus, it was their rookie season.
 

Voight

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I'm not sure gretzky would have beaten crosby for the 07 ross. Crosby was 19 and put up 120 points in 2007. Gretzky at 19 put up 137 points in 1980. I'm not sure if 137 points in 80 translates to more than 120 in 07.

I get it, you love Crosby but els be real - Gretzky would win it and the high offence post-lockout would also help him each close to his 1980s numbers.

We should bring Ovechkins 2007-2008 into this discussion, I mean 65 goals is up there with some of the best goal scoring years ever (only 27 behind Gretzkys high, and 22 below his second highest!). Not to mention he swept the awards in Gretzky-like fashion.
 

BenchBrawl

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Here is a Gretzky-to-Kurri goals compilation video (really good video btw, not sure if this was posted, you can see rare goals and many angles from goals you can find on other videos):



Gretzky does look good but a lot of 2-on-1 goals are more impressive on Kurri's part than on Gretzky's part.Of course in some of those Gretzky does an out of this world play.Kurri's one-timers are pretty good, very mobile while shooting and precise shots.I just didn't remember how good of a sniper Kurri really was.
 
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daver

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I get it, you love Crosby but els be real - Gretzky would win it and the high offence post-lockout would also help him each close to his 1980s numbers.

You realize that scoring in 1979/80 was higher than scoring in 06/07 right?

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

I get you dislike Crosby but his 120 point season could easily be viewed as better than Wayne's 137 point season (aside from the fact it was Wayne's 18 year season vs. Crosby's 19 year old season).
 

shazariahl

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You realize that scoring in 1979/80 was higher than scoring in 06/07 right?

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

I get you dislike Crosby but his 120 point season could easily be viewed as better than Wayne's 137 point season (aside from the fact it was Wayne's 18 year season vs. Crosby's 19 year old season).

Not to speak for Shawked, but I think that was kind of his point. Gretzky's rookie year was 137, and should be compared to Crosby's rookie year, not his sophomore year. And I'm not sure it's a case of Shawked disliking Crosby, so much as Scoringking disliking Gretzky. The HOH board right now is littered with Gretzky vs Lemieux type threads, each of which has dozens of posts from him proclaiming his mad man love for Lemieux.
 

shazariahl

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Here is a Gretzky-to-Kurri goals compilation video (really good video btw, not sure if this was posted, you can see rare goals and many angles from goals you can find on other videos):



Gretzky does look good but a lot of 2-on-1 goals are more impressive on Kurri's part than on Gretzky's part.Of course in some of those Gretzky does an out of this world play.Kurri's one-timers are pretty good, very mobile while shooting and precise shots.I just didn't remember how good of a sniper Kurri really was.


The number of goals scored in that video due to Gretzky forcing turn overs then leading to Oiler points is ridiculous. His forchecking was unreal.
 

daver

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Not to speak for Shawked, but I think that was kind of his point. Gretzky's rookie year was 137, and should be compared to Crosby's rookie year, not his sophomore year. And I'm not sure it's a case of Shawked disliking Crosby, so much as Scoringking disliking Gretzky. The HOH board right now is littered with Gretzky vs Lemieux type threads, each of which has dozens of posts from him proclaiming his mad man love for Lemieux.

I agree rookie years should be compared to rookie years but proclaiming the post lockout to be as high scoring as the 1980's was so far offbase it needed correcting.

The more I think about it, if Wayne joined the league today or even ten years ago, it is hard not to imagine that he would be as groomed as Crosby was to hit the ground running in his first year and hit his peak earlier likely meaning a clear Art Ross win in his first year.
 

The Panther

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I agree rookie years should be compared to rookie years but proclaiming the post lockout to be as high scoring as the 1980's was so far offbase it needed correcting.
Crosby and Gretzky's rookie years are not that different in terms of high-end scorers:

1979-80
1.Marcel Dionne*-LAK 137
Wayne Gretzky*-EDM 137
3. Guy Lafleur*-MTL 125
4. Gilbert Perreault*-BUF 106
5. Mike Rogers-HAR 105
6. Bryan Trottier*-NYI 104
7. Charlie Simmer-LAK 101
8. Blaine Stoughton-HAR 100
9. Darryl Sittler*-TOR 97
10. Bernie Federko*-STL 94
Blair MacDonald-EDM 94

2005-06
1. Joe Thornton-2TM 125
2. Jaromir Jagr-NYR 123
3. Alex Ovechkin-WSH 106
4. Dany Heatley-OTT 103
Daniel Alfredsson-OTT 103
6. Sidney Crosby-PIT 102
7. Eric Staal-CAR 100
8. Ilya Kovalchuk-ATL 98
9. Marc Savard-ATL 97
10. Jonathan Cheechoo-SJS 93


So, pretty much the same for top scorers. However, the average team in '80 scored 3.50 goals per game, and in '06 3.09 goals per game. The difference is probably down to 2nd and 3rd-liners being more prolific scorers in 1980.
 

Voight

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I agree rookie years should be compared to rookie years but proclaiming the post lockout to be as high scoring as the 1980's was so far offbase it needed correcting.

The more I think about it, if Wayne joined the league today or even ten years ago, it is hard not to imagine that he would be as groomed as Crosby was to hit the ground running in his first year and hit his peak earlier likely meaning a clear Art Ross win in his first year.

I never said that.

What i said was the high-scoring play post-lockout would help him reach close too his prime numbers. As opposed to say 1999. Obviously scoring was higher in 1980 - anyone could tell you that.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Statistically this makes sense but it's hard not to think that today's scoring environment (lower TOI, lower PP time, more balanced scoring) marginalizes elite talent to a certain extent and brings them closer to the pack.

Safe to say Wayne at his peak would be winning every Art Ross by a significant margin but 120 - 130 points seems more realistic. A peak Crosby would be in the 100 -105 range, peak Jagr (or other Tier Two players like Lafleur, Espo, Howe, Hull) - 100-110 range.

120 points is way too low for Gretzky. Crosby was on pace for that just a few years ago.
 

Worraps

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So pretty much down to the wire on his last game or 2 of the season...

OhSnap-house.gif
 

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