If Bobby Orr was a forward?

[pitseleh]

You can be on the ice for a plus and not get any points, so theoretically he could be on the ice for 1,654 esga and still be a plus player for his career.

Apparently, I have no idea what's going on. Thanks for setting me straight.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

"From the Legends of the Edmonton Oilers" and it has some errors.

I mean in the politest way possible...paragraph breaks. Otherwise, no one's going to be able to read it.

 

[Psycho Papa Joe]

You can be on the ice for a plus and not get any points, so theoretically he could be on the ice for 1,654 esga and still be a plus player for his career.

Amazingly, Larry Robinson was a +120 or something in 1976-77 while recording just 85 pts, many of them on the PP. He also has the all-time career plus/minus record. Something like +800 or so.

 

[BNHL]

I mean in the politest way possible...paragraph breaks. Otherwise, no one's going to be able to read it.

Sorry but it was a cut and paste from an Edmonton Oiler blog-not my work.

 

[BNHL]

For an even strength goal, there are 12 players on the ice. Coffey is one of those 12 or 8.3% of the players that could be responsible for the goal.

Saying that any one player is responsible for those goals is foolishness. +/- and related stats are virtually worthless.

One can approximate the accuracy of the plus-minus statistic by using the simple sqrt(122+122) = 17, suggesting the plus minus statistic has a range of around ± 17. Of course this isn't perfect, as it's the error for a binomial distribution (hockey is arguably Poisson),

Almost all NHL entry level contracts have plus minus incentives-idiots they are.

 

[Stonefly]

Because it could be a brilliant play by an opposition player that scores a goal and that is nobody's fault.

There are 12 players on the ice and you cannot blame any one for their own personal +/-. If you want to only count players on your own team, so be it. Either way, +/- is such a farce because 5 other players on my team could be dragging me down or propping me up.

Ever notice that the top 10 players in +/- are all on good teams? Ever notice that the bottom 10 are all on bad teams? Coincidence you think? Hell, you could have Dan Cloutier as your goaltender, totally destroying your +/-.

It is NOT an individual stat - and there is no evidence that the number you threw out is even accurate.

Uhhh, did I mention anything about +/-?

 

[maxpowers]

When considering greatness and domination of the NHL, how about if we dig a little deeper, beyond mere single season or career point totals when assessing the merits of Orr, Gretzky and Howe, such as: Average points per game throughout a career? Orr is # 1 with approx. 1.48 points per game.

This statement is flat out wrong and most hockey fans would instantly recognize it as being false. Gretzky averaged 1.92 pts/gm, Lemieux 1.88 pts/gm, Orr 1.39 pts/gm, and Howe 1.05 pts/gm. I'm not sure where Orr ranks all time in this category, but I'm sure there's at least a few players in between him and the top 2.

 

[Ogopogo*]

1531 career points and 1654 even strength goals against. .

You can certainly add 2 + 2, no?

 

[RUSqueelin*]

This statement is flat out wrong and most hockey fans would instantly recognize it as being false. Gretzky averaged 1.92 pts/gm, Lemieux 1.88 pts/gm, Orr 1.39 pts/gm, and Howe 1.05 pts/gm. I'm not sure where Orr ranks all time in this category, but I'm sure there's at least a few players in between him and the top 2.

Nope, actually I believe Orr - the dman - ranks 3rd alltime in PPG.

 

[Stonefly]

This statement is flat out wrong and most hockey fans would instantly recognize it as being false. Gretzky averaged 1.92 pts/gm, Lemieux 1.88 pts/gm, Orr 1.39 pts/gm, and Howe 1.05 pts/gm. I'm not sure where Orr ranks all time in this category, but I'm sure there's at least a few players in between him and the top 2.

He's 4th actually. Bossy is in between.

 

[Stonefly]

You can certainly add 2 + 2, no?

Yeah, 7 so?

 

[BNHL]

This statement is flat out wrong and most hockey fans would instantly recognize it as being false. Gretzky averaged 1.92 pts/gm, Lemieux 1.88 pts/gm, Orr 1.39 pts/gm, and Howe 1.05 pts/gm. I'm not sure where Orr ranks all time in this category, but I'm sure there's at least a few players in between him and the top 2.

Again,it's from an Oiler blog and I qualified it at the end with an admission of errors by the author.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I don't see how that'd be possible. Qualitatively looking at Coffey's +/- numbers (I don't have a cumulative number) he should be a plus player for his career. Even if all of his points were even strength (meaning he got a + for all of them) having 1654 ESGA would make him a minus player. I don't think that is right.

Maybe pnep or HO can enlighten us.

JFF's explanation is correct.

I realize I'm not saying anything here that we don't already know, but the numbers show that Coffey is a high-risk, high-reward player.

Total goals for (career):
1. Gretzky - 3,520
2. Bourque - 3,258
3. Coffey - 3,095
4. Murphy - 2,773
5. MacInnis - 2,705

Even-strength goals for (career):
1. Gretzky - 2,356
2. Robinson - 2,027
3. Bourque - 1,986
4. Coffey - 1,948
5. Stevens - 1,789

Powerplay goals for (career):
1. Bourque - 1,272
2. MacInnis - 1,186
3. Gretzky - 1,164
4. Coffey - 1,147
5. Francis - 1,120

Total goals against (career):
1. Gretzky - 2,285
2. Bourque - 2,145
3. Messier - 2,109
4. Coffey - 2,018
5. Stevens - 1,984

Even-strength goals against (career):
1. Gretzky - 1,838
2. Coffey - 1,654
3. Murphy - 1,541
4. Bourque - 1,458
5. Messier - 1,455

Powerplay goals against (career):
1. Bourque - 687
2. Messier - 654
3. Salming - 621
4. Stevens - 585
5. Chelios - 584
53. Coffey - 364

Clearly, Coffey is a high-risk player, since he's on the ice for so many goals for and against. The bottom line is that Coffey was on the ice for nearly 3,100 goals for while he was on the ice for just over 2,000 goals against. Thus, Coffey's goal differential is about +0.8 goals per game. Of course plus/minus and these related stats are team and era dependent... but if people bash Coffey for being on the ice for so many goals against, perhaps they'd be willing to give him some credit for that career +1,100 goal differential.

 

[Stonefly]

I give Coffey full credit for his offense. He was a great talent in that department.
H.O. do you happen to have the ice time minutes for these guys?
Also out of curiosity what do Orr's numbers look like? I know they will look better as he had to retire in his prime but I'd still like to see them.

 

[maxpowers]

Total goals for (career):
1. Gretzky - 3,520
2. Bourque - 3,258
3. Coffey - 3,095
4. Murphy - 2,773
5. MacInnis - 2,705

Just curious how you came up with these stats? In the NHL Gretzky had approximately double the points Bourque did and so was directly responsible for that many more goals for. Its interesting that anyone can really be so close to Gretzky in this category.

 

[cgb]

Just curious how you came up with these stats? In the NHL Gretzky had approximately double the points Bourque did and so was directly responsible for that many more goals for. Its interesting that anyone can really be so close to Gretzky in this category.

That's a good question.
If I'm reading this correctly that would mean there was only about 650 goals scored by Gretzky's teams while he was on the ice, on either even strength or powerplay, that he was not directly responsible for.
To me that looks like a sick level of dominating and controlling a game and one that I know I had never thought of before.
Two further things I'd like to know, if possible:
1. Can you add shorthanded statistics into this table to get a full picture of the percentage of goals 'in on' to goals scored while on the ice.
2. Could the information be expanded to say the top 20 in these categories and find out the stats for guys like Orr and Lemieux, who's names don't appear here.

 

[BNHL]

JFF's explanation is correct.

I realize I'm not saying anything here that we don't already know, but the numbers show that Coffey is a high-risk, high-reward player.

Total goals for (career):
1. Gretzky - 3,520
2. Bourque - 3,258
3. Coffey - 3,095
4. Murphy - 2,773
5. MacInnis - 2,705

Even-strength goals for (career):
1. Gretzky - 2,356
2. Robinson - 2,027
3. Bourque - 1,986
4. Coffey - 1,948
5. Stevens - 1,789

Powerplay goals for (career):
1. Bourque - 1,272
2. MacInnis - 1,186
3. Gretzky - 1,164
4. Coffey - 1,147
5. Francis - 1,120

Total goals against (career):
1. Gretzky - 2,285
2. Bourque - 2,145
3. Messier - 2,109
4. Coffey - 2,018
5. Stevens - 1,984

Even-strength goals against (career):
1. Gretzky - 1,838
2. Coffey - 1,654
3. Murphy - 1,541
4. Bourque - 1,458
5. Messier - 1,455

Powerplay goals against (career):
1. Bourque - 687
2. Messier - 654
3. Salming - 621
4. Stevens - 585
5. Chelios - 584
53. Coffey - 364

Clearly, Coffey is a high-risk player, since he's on the ice for so many goals for and against. The bottom line is that Coffey was on the ice for nearly 3,100 goals for while he was on the ice for just over 2,000 goals against. Thus, Coffey's goal differential is about +0.8 goals per game. Of course plus/minus and these related stats are team and era dependent... but if people bash Coffey for being on the ice for so many goals against, perhaps they'd be willing to give him some credit for that career +1,100 goal differential.

I sent an E-mail to the NHLPA for their stance on plus minus as many minimum contract guys have this stat as an incentive clause. I also sent an e-mail to the mathmetician I stumbled across who has dissected hockey numbers ad nauseum. The NHLPA has responded to me in the past.We'll see.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

H.O. do you happen to have the ice time minutes for these guys?

Unfortunately, the NHL did not record ice time until some time in the late 1990s. But you're correct that ice time is a major factor. I'd estimate that the top defensemen on this list averaged 26-28 minutes per game during their careers while Gretzky was probably down around 22-24 minutes. (This is just my estimate though). Anyway, since most of the players on this list are defensemen, this means that Gretkzy was even better than these numbers suggest on a per-minute basis.

Also out of curiosity what do Orr's numbers look like? I know they will look better as he had to retire in his prime but I'd still like to see them.

To really get a sense of Orr's numbers, we need to look on a per-game basis. Here are the numbers on a per game basis (min. 100 gp).

Total goals for
1. Orr - 2.77
2. Lemieux - 2.42
3. Gretzky - 2.20
4. Coffey - 2.20
5. Potvin 2.12

Even-strength goals for
1. Orr - 1.87
2. Gretzky - 1.58
3. Robinson - 1.46
4. J. Laperriere - 1.45
5. D. Smith - 1.44

Powerplay goals for
1. Lemieux - 1.04
2. Orr - 0.90
3. MacInnis - 0.84
4. Leetch - 0.82
5. Coffey - 0.81

Incredibly, Orr's numbers on a per-game basis are as good as Gretzky's and Lemieux's (though he did have the advantage of playing a few more minutes per game). A few defensemen are close to #4 in one category or another, but, overall, they are all far behind Orr.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

Unfortunately, the NHL did not record ice time until some time in the late 1990s. But you're correct that ice time is a major factor. I'd estimate that the top defensemen on this list averaged 26-28 minutes per game during their careers while Gretzky was probably down around 22-24 minutes. (This is just my estimate though). Anyway, since most of the players on this list are defensemen, this means that Gretkzy was even better than these numbers suggest on a per-minute basis.



To really get a sense of Orr's numbers, we need to look on a per-game basis. Here are the numbers on a per game basis (min. 100 gp).

Total goals for
1. Orr - 2.77
2. Lemieux - 2.42
3. Gretzky - 2.20
4. Coffey - 2.20
5. Potvin 2.12

Even-strength goals for
1. Orr - 1.87
2. Gretzky - 1.58
3. Robinson - 1.46
4. J. Laperriere - 1.45
5. D. Smith - 1.44

Powerplay goals for
1. Lemieux - 1.04
2. Orr - 0.90
3. MacInnis - 0.84
4. Leetch - 0.82
5. Coffey - 0.81

Incredibly, Orr's numbers on a per-game basis are as good as Gretzky's and Lemieux's (though he did have the advantage of playing a few more minutes per game). A few defensemen are close to #4 in one category or another, but, overall, they are all far behind Orr.

These numbers, and the previous numbers may prove that Coffey generated a lot. But, the bolded name proves that linemates can have a huge impact on this stat. massive even.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Just curious how you came up with these stats?

The NHL has tracked goals for and goals against by situation from 1968 to the present. I think that there's a lot of noise in the data (the effects of teammates and how high/low-scoring the era was are very significant), but there's probably some valuable information buried in here. If you want a copy of this data, join the Yahoo "Hockey Analysis Group"; the last time I checked, this file was still available there.

In the NHL Gretzky had approximately double the points Bourque did and so was directly responsible for that many more goals for. Its interesting that anyone can really be so close to Gretzky in this category.

I was surprised, too, but I'd guess that the difference is attributable to ice time. Nobody recorded ice time during the 1980s, but I'd guess that Gretzky averaged around 24 minutes per game during his career and Bourque got 28. Add in the fact that Bourque's career was a hundred or so games longer and that alone would inflate Bourque's numbers 20-30% relative to Gretzky.

Also keep in mind that Gretzky would be much more responsible for the goals-for than Bourque. A player can have great goals-for stats (see Dallas Smith) but that can be, to varying degrees, attributable to great teammates.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

That's a good question.
If I'm reading this correctly that would mean there was only about 650 goals scored by Gretzky's teams while he was on the ice, on either even strength or powerplay, that he was not directly responsible for.
To me that looks like a sick level of dominating and controlling a game and one that I know I had never thought of before.

This means that Gretzky earned a point on about 85% of the total goals he was on the ice for. I've compared the numbers to other players, and Gretzky and Lemieux are both near the top of the list at around 85%. This seems high, but is realistic: it was rare for Gretzky or Lemieux to not be a major part of the offense whenever their teams scored.

The was an article in the Globe & Mail (by Alan Ryder) a few months ago that showed that the top players in 2006-07 earned a point for 80-85% of the time when they were on the ice. To see Gretzky and Lemieux average the highest scores of 2007, for their entire careers, is incredible.

Two further things I'd like to know, if possible:
1. Can you add shorthanded statistics into this table to get a full picture of the percentage of goals 'in on' to goals scored while on the ice.

Unfortunately the file I have doesn't specify shorthanded situations. All shorthanded stats have been grouped together with even-strength stats. This makes the data somewhat less reliable unfortunately.

2. Could the information be expanded to say the top 20 in these categories and find out the stats for guys like Orr and Lemieux, who's names don't appear here.

Sure. I probably should have mentioned this earlier, but the numbers are significantly biased in favor of players who played in the high-scoring 80s. This should be obvious from the charts below.

Total goals for

Player|GP|Goals For|Per Game
Wayne Gretzky | 1487 | 3520 | 2.37
Ray Bourque | 1612 | 3258 | 2.02
Paul Coffey | 1409 | 3095 | 2.2
Larry Murphy | 1615 | 2773 | 1.72
Al MacInnis | 1413 | 2705 | 1.91
Larry Robinson | 1384 | 2635 | 1.9
Ron Francis | 1651 | 2573 | 1.56
Mark Messier | 1680 | 2514 | 1.5
Phil Housley | 1495 | 2401 | 1.61
Marcel Dionne | 1348 | 2357 | 1.75
Scott Stevens | 1597 | 2342 | 1.47
Steve Yzerman | 1378 | 2337 | 1.7
Denis Potvin | 1060 | 2251 | 2.12
Brad Park | 1113 | 2194 | 1.97
Chris Chelios | 1326 | 2124 | 1.6
Mario Lemieux | 879 | 2123 | 2.42
Borje Salming | 1148 | 2111 | 1.84
Jari Kurri | 1251 | 2039 | 1.63
Bryan Trottier | 1279 | 2032 | 1.59
Mike Gartner | 1432 | 2029 | 1.42
Brian Leetch | 1072 | 2028 | 1.89
Phil Esposito | 1047 | 2013 | 1.92
Doug Gilmour | 1474 | 2010 | 1.36
Adam Oates | 1277 | 1984 | 1.55
Guy Lafleur | 1126 | 1964 | 1.74
Dave Andreychuk | 1515 | 1961 | 1.29
Gary Suter | 1145 | 1954 | 1.71
Dale Hawerchuk | 1188 | 1953 | 1.64
Dave Babych | 1195 | 1915 | 1.6
Luc Robitaille | 1286 | 1894 | 1.47

Even-strength goals for

Player|GP|Goals For|Per Game
Wayne Gretzky | 1487 | 2356 | 1.58
Larry Robinson | 1384 | 2027 | 1.46
Ray Bourque | 1612 | 1986 | 1.23
Paul Coffey | 1409 | 1948 | 1.38
Scott Stevens | 1597 | 1789 | 1.12
Larry Murphy | 1615 | 1741 | 1.08
Mark Messier | 1680 | 1662 | 0.99
Borje Salming | 1148 | 1531 | 1.33
Al MacInnis | 1413 | 1519 | 1.08
Brad Park | 1113 | 1456 | 1.31
Ron Francis | 1651 | 1453 | 0.88
Denis Potvin | 1060 | 1442 | 1.36
Serge Savard | 1038 | 1436 | 1.38
Steve Yzerman | 1378 | 1432 | 1.04
Jari Kurri | 1251 | 1424 | 1.14
Chris Chelios | 1326 | 1401 | 1.06
Marcel Dionne | 1348 | 1396 | 1.04
Bryan Trottier | 1279 | 1372 | 1.07
Phil Housley | 1495 | 1333 | 0.89
Brad McCrimmon | 1222 | 1323 | 1.08
Mike Gartner | 1432 | 1303 | 0.91
Guy Lafleur | 1126 | 1287 | 1.14
Kevin Lowe | 1254 | 1285 | 1.02
Doug Gilmour | 1474 | 1257 | 0.85
Phil Esposito | 1047 | 1237 | 1.18
Charlie Huddy | 1017 | 1232 | 1.21
Mark Howe | 929 | 1220 | 1.31
Carol Vadnais | 1076 | 1219 | 1.13
Mario Lemieux | 879 | 1205 | 1.37
Adam Oates | 1277 | 1205 | 0.94

Powerplay goals for

Player|GP|Goals For|Per Game
Ray Bourque | 1612 | 1272 | 0.79
Al MacInnis | 1413 | 1186 | 0.84
Wayne Gretzky | 1487 | 1164 | 0.78
Paul Coffey | 1409 | 1147 | 0.81
Ron Francis | 1651 | 1120 | 0.68
Phil Housley | 1495 | 1068 | 0.71
Larry Murphy | 1615 | 1032 | 0.64
Marcel Dionne | 1348 | 961 | 0.71
Mario Lemieux | 879 | 918 | 1.04
Steve Yzerman | 1378 | 905 | 0.66
Brian Leetch | 1072 | 879 | 0.82
Gary Suter | 1145 | 879 | 0.77
Dave Andreychuk | 1515 | 863 | 0.57
Mark Messier | 1680 | 852 | 0.51
Dale Hawerchuk | 1188 | 843 | 0.71
Denis Potvin | 1060 | 809 | 0.76
Adam Oates | 1277 | 779 | 0.61
Phil Esposito | 1047 | 776 | 0.74
Joe Sakic | 1074 | 772 | 0.72
Brett Hull | 1183 | 762 | 0.64
Doug Gilmour | 1474 | 753 | 0.51
Luc Robitaille | 1286 | 740 | 0.58
Brad Park | 1113 | 738 | 0.66
Mike Gartner | 1432 | 726 | 0.51
Chris Chelios | 1326 | 723 | 0.55
Dave Babych | 1195 | 716 | 0.6
Doug Wilson | 1024 | 686 | 0.67
Dino Ciccarelli | 1232 | 681 | 0.55
Guy Lafleur | 1126 | 677 | 0.6
Bernie Nicholls | 1127 | 665 | 0.59

The fact that Jagr isn't on any of these lists speaks volumes about the heavy bias in favor of 1980s players.

I should also mention that these stats only include up to the 2002-03 season. Jagr and Lidstrom would both crack the top 30 if I had the current stats.

 

[Stonefly]

Anyway, since most of the players on this list are defensemen, this means that Gretkzy was even better than these numbers suggest on a per-minute basis.

It indicates that he was better offensively but worse defensively, no?

 

[cgb]

Hockey Outsider:

Thanks for the expanded info, much appreciated.
Another question for you; you mentioned gretzky and Lemieux averaged being in on 80-85 % of the goals their teams scored. do you have such a figure for Orr?

It indicates that he was better offensively but worse defensively, no?

Not sure if I understand what you mean here, could you expand/explain please?

 

[alrusso]

I have some other great ones:

What if Bobby Orr was a plumber?

He would be able to plunge a toilet in 4 seconds flat, collect on the bill and be to the next house while other plubmers are all still at the shop trying to pull up their pants.

What if Bobby Orr was an astronaut?

He would have landed on the moon in 1963, Mars in 1967 and he would have walked on the sun by 1974. Neil Armstrong would have been fired by NASA and become a shoe salesman in suburban Houston.

What if Bobby Orr had endorsed Hawkins cheezies rather than Planters peanuts?

Planters would have gone out of business in 1978 and the CEO of planters would have ended up homeless, banging sticks on a plastic bucket to make music and generate a few coins from passers-by.

Hawkins would have become the largest and most powerful snack food company on the planet and have battled with Wal-Mart and Microsoft for the title of largest company in the world.

What if Bobby Orr was born female?

Bobbi Orr would have only won 6 Norris Trophies and peaked out at 125 points in her best season. She would also have married Phil Esposito.

I'm still laughing!!! Great post!! I'm the biggest Bobby Orr fan out there, but sometimes it's good to add some humor to the subject!! So funny!!!

 

[Stonefly]

Not sure if I understand what you mean here, could you expand/explain please?

Was just thinking that if he was on the ice for a shorter period of time and still had the same or more goals against the he would be worse defensively but better offensively by getting more goals with less time.