I think this is a playoff team if....

[Rafafouille]

Please, the fans are more fickle than a 13 year old high school kid... The second the Habs go on a losing streak is the moment 99% of the fans jump off this ridiculous bandwagon.

I can only think of the longterm and right now we are on pace to repeat the cycle from 2012, how did that turn out the first time?

There isn't one example of a previous cup winner to do so without multiple top picks. It simply doesn't happen and we are just going down a road of futility and my heart(brain?) can't take it. It's like witnessing a car crash that's about to happen in slow motion but you can't do anything about it...

Boston 2011 didn't have any top 10 picks(Well yeah, Wheeler, Horton and Seguin but none were drafted by them).
LA 2012-2014 only has Doughty.
08 Wings had a bunch of late pick gems

Outside of the pens and hawks dynasties, there's not that many examples of successful tanks. Hell, look at Chicago. They picked 3rd in 2006, 1st in 2007. Switch those years up and they pick Erik Johnson(1st) instead of Toews(3rd) and Kyle Turris(3rd) instead of Patrick Kane(1st) and have zero cups.

Penguins suck in 05 but the lottery gives them #2? They get bobby ryan instead of sidney crosby and have zero cups as well.

Tanking has made more casualties than successes in past history.

 

[CauZuki]

Boston 2011 didn't have any top 10 picks(Well yeah, Wheeler, Horton and Seguin but none were drafted by them).
LA 2012-2014 only has Doughty.
08 Wings had a bunch of late pick gems

Outside of the pens and hawks dynasties, there's not that many examples of successful tanks. Hell, look at Chicago. They picked 3rd in 2006, 1st in 2007. Switch those years up and they pick Erik Johnson(1st) instead of Toews(3rd) and Kyle Turris(3rd) instead of Patrick Kane(1st) and have zero cups.

Penguins suck in 05 but the lottery gives them #2? They get bobby ryan instead of sidney crosby and have zero cups as well.

Tanking has made more casualties than successes in past history.

Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington.
Doughty and Kopitar are both top 5 picks....
Boston is one of the exceptions if you will even though Tyler Seguin was a lottery pick and these type of players rarely get traded in their youth.

If you want to bank on the least likely scenario that's up to you...The facts clearly state most winners did so with multiple top picks.

Trying to emulate luck is simply a bad idea, no one can convince me otherwise...

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Agreed. Thats why I said "small sample size" but I like the positives. But I think we want the same thing.

Nope.

See: Post above mine

 

[montreal]

Going into the season I was worried we would end up drafting 9th or 10th, missing out on what could be a great prospect for us. But we'll see what happens, if they are better then that, that could be much worse as then you have to worry about what management will do like trading picks/prospects thinking they can make the playoffs which would be a huge mistake. They just don't have the offense, we lack goal scorers, a blueline that can produce offense, a PP that can be counted on to consistently produce at a rate that puts up in the top 10 in the league.

 

[strongcomp05]

WE NEED TO START LOSING ASAP

 

[ECWHSWI]

Boston 2011 didn't have any top 10 picks(Well yeah, Wheeler, Horton and Seguin but none were drafted by them).
LA 2012-2014 only has Doughty.
08 Wings had a bunch of late pick gems

Outside of the pens and hawks dynasties, there's not that many examples of successful tanks. Hell, look at Chicago. They picked 3rd in 2006, 1st in 2007. Switch those years up and they pick Erik Johnson(1st) instead of Toews(3rd) and Kyle Turris(3rd) instead of Patrick Kane(1st) and have zero cups.

Penguins suck in 05 but the lottery gives them #2? They get bobby ryan instead of sidney crosby and have zero cups as well.

Tanking has made more casualties than successes in past history.

WTF ? this is the year Hawks got top picks, why in hell would you argue about something that didnt happen, like picking in other years ?


only if you think good teams should win more often, but that's not the reality... in any sport. winning the big trophy is not the norm in team sports, especially not in a 30/31 and soon 32 teams league...

 

[montreal]

WE NEED TO START LOSING ASAP

they will lose their fair share as time goes on, every team no matter how good or how bad is going to win/lose their fair share unless you are the '76-'77 Habs. The question is how do we stack up vs the rest of the league. We don't have the weapons of the leafs but we have kicked the crap out of the wings over the last year despite it being one of our worst teams since they started playing more then 50 games a year.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

they will lose their fair share as time goes on, every team no matter how good or how bad is going to win/lose their fair share unless you are the '76-'77 Habs. The question is how do we stack up vs the rest of the league. We don't have the weapons of the leafs but we have kicked the crap out of the wings over the last year despite it being one of our worst teams since they started playing more then 50 games a year.

We've had the Wings on the mat for over 10 years now. They rarely win against us ever since Lidstrom retired. That's why I think what we are seeing is just a big puff of smoke.

 

[montreal]

They need to get the PP going and find more balanced scoring. Right now we have 3 players that have scored 50% of all our goals. (Gallagher/Tatar/Byron) so unless all 3 have career years others will need to start scoring. Then there's the blueline, Petry and Reilly are off to great starts with 8 pts between them, the other 5 have a combined total of 1 pt. If Price stays around this level though, they are going to be in most games.

 

[member 300185]

Is it possible to turn this into a poll? I am curious how many people have flipped since 3 weeks?

-Do you think the Habs will make the playoffs.
-Do you think the Habs will miss the playoffs.

 

[OldCraig71]

Is it possible to turn this into a poll? I am curious how many people have flipped since 3 weeks?

-Do you think the Habs will make the playoffs.
-Do you think the Habs will miss the playoffs.

October cup mentality, please don't make the poll. This is not the Leafs board.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

They need to get the PP going and find more balanced scoring. Right now we have 3 players that have scored 50% of all our goals. (Gallagher/Tatar/Byron) so unless all 3 have career years others will need to start scoring. Then there's the blueline, Petry and Reilly are off to great starts with 8 pts between them, the other 5 have a combined total of 1 pt. If Price stays around this level though, they are going to be in most games.

This is exactly what I was telling a friend.

Habs have 1 goal scored by dmen. The offense is too concentrated, when those few productive players will turn back to the mean, it's gonna get ugly. We'll have scoring droughts sooner than later. Eventually, it will play on overall morale and we'll start sinking in the standings.

 

[Habs Icing]

This is exactly what I was telling a friend.

Habs have 1 goal scored by dmen. The offense is too concentrated, when those few productive players will turn back to the mean, it's gonna get ugly. We'll have scoring droughts sooner than later. Eventually, it will play on overall morale and we'll start sinking in the standings.

If that's true why isn't it also true that the unproductive players will turn to the mean?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

If that's true why isn't it also true that the unproductive players will turn to the mean?

Their mean ain't high. Kinda obvious.

 

[Wats]

Boston 2011 didn't have any top 10 picks(Well yeah, Wheeler, Horton and Seguin but none were drafted by them).
LA 2012-2014 only has Doughty.
08 Wings had a bunch of late pick gems

Outside of the pens and hawks dynasties, there's not that many examples of successful tanks. Hell, look at Chicago. They picked 3rd in 2006, 1st in 2007. Switch those years up and they pick Erik Johnson(1st) instead of Toews(3rd) and Kyle Turris(3rd) instead of Patrick Kane(1st) and have zero cups.

Penguins suck in 05 but the lottery gives them #2? They get bobby ryan instead of sidney crosby and have zero cups as well.

Tanking has made more casualties than successes in past history.

Your definition of success is cup win. What's the definition of casualties for tanking? The trade Hall for D dumb Edmonton? The can't afford to make cap floor Coyotes? Maybe Winnipeg/Devils/Sabres/Avalanche/Leafs/Tampa who don't have a cup but have a ton of talent? How about Washington who took forever to get a cup?

2012-14 LA
- used top 5 picks Schenn/Jack Johnson to get Jeff Carter and Mike Richards
- Kopitar was 11th overall pick

Hard to use this model when Habs don't have the ability to trade for established high end players nor do they have a young star core players in key positions at C, D, G (Quick/Kopitar/Doughty were all ~25 years old then). Plus they wouldn't have the assets to trade for Carter/Richards without tanking.

2011 Boston
- Seguin was drafted by them using the pick they got for Kessel...who they drafted 5th overall
- Habs drafting is not close to as good as Boston...they actually get good players regularly later in the draft
- When's the last time a highly coveted UFA like Wheeler/Chara/Marc Savard/etc signed in Montreal?

Hard to use this model when no high profile star players want to sign in Montreal. This relies on a 80-90 point C and a Norris/future hall of fame D signing...

 

[Miller Time]

Is it possible to turn this into a poll? I am curious how many people have flipped since 3 weeks?

-Do you think the Habs will make the playoffs.
-Do you think the Habs will miss the playoffs.

If they are still sitting in a top 4-6 spot in the conference come January, then perhaps they have a realistic shot at the playoffs... for now? this roster is still far too thin in talent and depth, and too poorly assembled to be considered a playoff team.

the hot start is great, people seem to be ignoring that it's only 6 games...

 

[Habs Icing]

Their mean ain't high. Kinda obvious.

Drouin, Lehkonen, Shaw, Weber are 4 with a fairly high mean. Also can you tell me with any accuracy what the mean is for Domi, Hudon, Peca, Armia, Danault? A mean for such players is still in flux. True be told a true mean can only be established when players are reaching the sunset of their careers or have retired.

 

[habsterr]

In the 15/16 season; the Habs finished 22nd in the NHL after starting 9-0 in the regular season.

 

[Milhouse40]

Is it possible to turn this into a poll? I am curious how many people have flipped since 3 weeks?

-Do you think the Habs will make the playoffs.
-Do you think the Habs will miss the playoffs.

6 games out of 82 games shouldn't be enough to change someone's mind. I know many have and i can understand but those are the ones that could also change their in 2 weeks from now. 4 home games and 2 on the road.....no back to back games....no big road trip.

Beginning of November things will get tougher with 6 games in 10 days to begin with and after that it's 5 out of 7 games on the road including a trip out west....

 

[Habs Icing]

6 games out of 82 games shouldn't be enough to change someone's mind. I know many have and i can understand but those are the ones that could also change their in 2 weeks from now. 4 home games and 2 on the road.....no back to back games....no big road trip.

Beginning of November things will get tougher with 6 games in 10 days to begin with and after that it's 5 out of 7 games on the road including a trip out west....

What's the standard yardstick? Look to American Thanksgiving.

Thing is this team has an ace in the hole around Thanksgiving. Weber is returning.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Drouin, Lehkonen, Shaw, Weber are 4 with a fairly high mean. Also can you tell me with any accuracy what the mean is for Domi, Hudon, Peca, Armia, Danault? A mean for such players is still in flux. True be told a true mean can only be established when players are reaching the sunset of their careers or have retired.

Let's revisit this in January, maybe you'll see what I mean by then.

And no, those players's mean, in terms of goalscoring, isn't high. Not even close. Don't need their career numbers to realize this.

 

[JianYang]

Is it possible to turn this into a poll? I am curious how many people have flipped since 3 weeks?

-Do you think the Habs will make the playoffs.
-Do you think the Habs will miss the playoffs.

I still believe they miss the playoffs. It would be silly to change a decision based on the first 6 games no matter how good a team has a looked.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

What's the standard yardstick? Look to American Thanksgiving.

Thing is this team has an ace in the hole around Thanksgiving. Weber is returning.

Weber won't be back to 100% until mid to late december. He barely started skating again after almost a full year out. He won't be back until December and that's if there's no setback. And then sone time re-adapting to the game.

 

[uiCk]

Please no, we need a top 10 pick in this draft

 

[Habs Icing]

Let's revisit this in January, maybe you'll see what I mean by then.

And no, those players's mean, in terms of goalscoring, isn't high. Not even close. Don't need their career numbers to realize this.

But the mean is higher than their record shows right now hence they'll rise to their mean