Can you do us all a favour and read up on strawman arguments please. Or do you not even care?
3+ years of collective data. And you cite a handful of bad goals as if they don't happen to anyone else.
Post-Game Talk: "I know what every players knob looks like" Jets lose 3-2 in OT
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Can you do us all a favour and read up on strawman arguments please. Or do you not even care?
3+ years of collective data. And you cite a handful of bad goals as if they don't happen to anyone else.
tbcwpg
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- Jan 25, 2011
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Not going to quote since I'm on my phone and broken up quotes are a nightmare for it, but I think you're doing a bit of what you're criticizing others for when mentioning that I think those other top goalies wouldn't struggle sarcastically. They are better goalies than Pavelec no denying that. This team is not as better off with a goalie like that as you're implying. Not to mention that two of the three goalies you've used in the examples are on teams with worse records than the Jets 
There's no point continuing the argument since we won't convince each other. You call straw man when people say that you blame Pavelec for every goal, but you do blame his overall game performance on him, especially these last two which haven't been horrible games for him. The stat I'm most concerned about with the team is the 11.9% PP percentage. That needs to improve.
There's no point continuing the argument since we won't convince each other. You call straw man when people say that you blame Pavelec for every goal, but you do blame his overall game performance on him, especially these last two which haven't been horrible games for him. The stat I'm most concerned about with the team is the 11.9% PP percentage. That needs to improve.
CorgisPer60
Barking at the net
So we have a Pavelec thread on the main page. Do we really need to discuss him in here? Can't we talk about the positives of the game instead?
The data tells us nothing concrete at all but that our team, the Winnipeg Jets, have troubles keeping the puck out of our net.
To blame Pavelec as our biggest problem so far isn't fair to my eye test at all. He's part of it, but lets not pretend if we throw some 15-20th ranked goalie in instead of Pavelec we will POOF become a playoff team. This team still makes too many dumb mistakes too often for me to say our goalie is costing us.
Tonight's and last week's games against Nashville were perfect examples of this. We are a more talented team up front than Nashville and it showed by our domination in shots. But they play smart, consistent, structured hockey. When they are presented with an opportunity (Weber on 2 on 1 from dumb Bogo pinch, Pavelec's bad rebound, Kane/Buff both fanning) they make sure to capitalize. If we had the kind of structure and dedication Nashville has with our talent on offense and defense, then it would be obvious. But any time you just list of stats as proof of something more than the stat itself in hockey you're kidding yourself if you think it's "fact." He's part if the problem, but not the biggest one in the sense of the team as a whole.
We need 23 players playing as one. Until then, find all the scapegoats we want because we could bring in all the talent in the world and never win a thing because we don't have the right mentality to win at this level, in this league, yet. One day
CorgisPer60
Barking at the net
Potrzebie
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- Mar 25, 2010
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Pains me to say it but its because both clubs have pretty similar talent and one team plays smart and hard every night and the other doesn't. The stupid frickin Leafs have more heart than we do right now and that sucks balls.
Kamo
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- Jul 10, 2011
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Was that really the most recent 1-0 victory by the jets? Because if it is we need to realize that these loses cannot be simply blamed on one player. Tonight was a better showing definitely but the Jets still have a multitude of errors which need to be fixed. Id like to see improvements this season because for 2 years it's been mediocre.
You sure like to tilt at your "strawman" windmills. Show me one post where you've said "Pavelec had no chance on that goal" or "That one wasn't Pavelec's fault."
You speak in constant hyperbole and it's hard to take you seriously.
CorgisPer60
Barking at the net
Not the most recent, but the best example of playing up to the calibre of other teams. Another example cited is the Sens game last season.
Blue Shakehead
because lol Jets
Bogosian actually "kicked it in" because Pavelec was still out of his net after the horrendous play up the boards, showcasing some of the worst puck skills I've ever seen in an NHL goalie. Because of his complete lack of puck skills, he freezes the puck at least 30-40% more than most goalies, which end up causing DZ faceoffs and therefore far more shots / chances against than necessary.
Here's the thing about Pavelec's game tonight, because I think it had everything that you come to expect out of a Pavelec game: one highlight reel save and some fairly decent other saves. BUT: that second goal was off an atrocious rebound and the shot could have been stopped. The predators then locked down the rest of the period with traps and dumps and if it wasn't for the individual effort of wheeler with 3 min left, that game is over. 2-1 Preds. Zero points for the Jets.
Pavelec was fine. The Weber goal and the OT goal aren't on him. At the same time, he's played in 10 games, and he's only outplayed the opposition goalies twice (Oilers and Kings). That's not good enough. 1 bad goal per game is not good enough in this league.
I speak in constant hyperbole?? Me? Lol. From the guy who says that we all hate on Pavs cuz he isn't perfect?
Well, good night folks. Don't forget to turn the lights off when you're leaving. Lol.
Late to the party...
Just finished watching the game. Pretty bummed I couldn't watch it live.
Sucks that we lost, BUT I'm thrilled we fought back. I've said it before this year, but thats a point we never got last year.
Obviously I'm thrilled to see Peluso score.
To Holden's credit, he is not a hater. I totally respect that he has (had) his reservation about Tony, BUT I can see that he's warming to him. You may have to scratch and claw to win over Holden but he'll give credit where credit is due.
That said I've gotta....
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=71832597&postcount=318
Just finished watching the game. Pretty bummed I couldn't watch it live.
Sucks that we lost, BUT I'm thrilled we fought back. I've said it before this year, but thats a point we never got last year.
Obviously I'm thrilled to see Peluso score.
To Holden's credit, he is not a hater. I totally respect that he has (had) his reservation about Tony, BUT I can see that he's warming to him. You may have to scratch and claw to win over Holden but he'll give credit where credit is due.
That said I've gotta....
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=71832597&postcount=318
ICdave
Registered User
Sixty Minute Man
Registered User
Whats more likely? That despite the Jets being, for the last 3 years, middle of the pack for shots for, goals per game and Pavs never being in the top 30 for save %... with all this in mind... it's actually just been 3 years of unbelievable defensive gaffs. Pure defensive garbage. So bad that even Luongo, Broduer, Quick, would all struggle.
Or, is it more likely that Pavelec is in fact the weak link in the chain and not the goaltender some of you think he is? 3 years of data... no good. It's a defensive systems problem that, statistically has been proven to be very muted on very large sample sizes.
Because I enjoy picking apart poorly constructed arguments propping him up. I talk about a lot of Jets things, but my passion is dealing with Pav lovers who need help with reality
Give the man a prize!!!
Holden Caulfield
Eternal Skeptic
I was JUST going to post the same thing. He's been great. I wonder if the Peluso haters have come around on him a bit or if they're still seeing 5-6 giveaways per night that nobody else is, including the official stats guys.
Again giveaways and takeaways are the most RIDICULOUS stats collected by NHL.com. They are random and make no sense. Worst thing ever, NEVER use them. Beyond useless. Peluso could not hang to the puck to save his life to start the year, last year or pre-season. He has been improving last couple of games.
If you refused to see the turnovers which is why he wasn't playing, that's your fault. He was, which is why Noel wasn't playing him. Watching from a coaching perspective it was obvious (which is WAAAAY different than a fan's perspective as I am learning in the past two years coaching).
Congratulations your constantly call outs brought me out. I have been trying to avoid your and other call outs on Peluso since I was done talking about him. He is improving though. Still have my doubts if he will stick, but he has been a reasonable call up type option right now and going forward. We'll see if he builds on that. Still been lots of money and resources expended on him so far, that could have went to Cormier, Machacek, etc, who knows what they could have become with that ridiculous patience. But I will hold judgement until we can see if Peluso can play. Right now that patience looks alright. We'll see.
That being said, here is my recap of the game (on Arctic Ice Hockey, I'm the author). Note #2 on my list. It based on much more than the goal, overall he was not turning the puck over, making smarter decisions, showing more confidence, getting quicker on the forecheck, etc.
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/10/25/5026632/jets-fall-3-2-in-ot-to-predators#comments
You know, I try to avoid the Pavelec garbage because I have made my opinion on him pretty clear and I get tired of saying the same things over and over but honestly, this kind of stuff really pisses me off.
Too often a comeback when someone criticizes Pavelec for not playing up to the standard a decent hockey team needs him to in order to win more is something along the lines of sarcasm:
Every goal Pavelec lets in is a bad one
... or something along the lines of Pavs not getting any respect around here. Twice tonight I commented on great saves he made. There is a virtual ton of evidence that clearly shows that Pavelec is, and has been, a subpar starter in the NHL.
People take the time to build well thought out posts on why Pavelec needs to be better but the retorts given are built on emotion and not on fact.
If Pavelec does not find a way to:
Stop more shots
Handle the puck better
Control his rebounds
Be better positionally and track the puck better
Bail the team out at critical times in the game (which all good starters do)
... there is no way in H E double hockey sticks this team will make the playoffs. You can take that to the bank.
I further make the bold claim that we would have been playoff bound last year if we had even an average goalie.
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Their starter has a .936 save percentage, probably a little high, he'll settle into .920-.925 range. Their backup has a .917. Imagine how the puck would be bouncing for us if we could count on that type of goaltending, it's a pretty big difference in how confidently a team can play too.
Their top 2 lines are hovering around a PPG pace too, although they are in the free wheelin' East. I think they are quite a bit deeper up front than we are.
Holden Caulfield
Eternal Skeptic
Yet we passed on well above average goalie Anton Khudobin in free agency, and potential average/above average goalie in Tomas Greiss as well as trade options like Jonathan Bernier, Frederik Anderson, Niklas Svedberg, and Michal Neuvirth all which would have competed with Pavelec for starter role.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
If anyone cares, team effects on goaltending has been studied analytically since about 2004 (and the data mining goes even further back)...
Thus far it looks team effects have a maximum difference of 0.004 change for a goalies 1 season save percentage.
Sv% is almost exclusively a mix of variance (or luck depending on how you look at it) and talent. The ratio of those two depend on your sample.
Pavelec's career Sv% is around 0.905... so we can judge his true talent likely (more than 95% sure) to be between 0.901-0.909.
I don't think the Jets' are great defensively and I don't think they are worse than an expansion team in it's first year... so I'd put good money on Pavelec's true talent in his performance being 0.906-0.908...
This is below league average. Not some AHL bum, but not what a team that's pretty average already can use to push into the playoffs... unless we get a lucky break.
Thus far it looks team effects have a maximum difference of 0.004 change for a goalies 1 season save percentage.
Sv% is almost exclusively a mix of variance (or luck depending on how you look at it) and talent. The ratio of those two depend on your sample.
Pavelec's career Sv% is around 0.905... so we can judge his true talent likely (more than 95% sure) to be between 0.901-0.909.
I don't think the Jets' are great defensively and I don't think they are worse than an expansion team in it's first year... so I'd put good money on Pavelec's true talent in his performance being 0.906-0.908...
This is below league average. Not some AHL bum, but not what a team that's pretty average already can use to push into the playoffs... unless we get a lucky break.
Positive
Enjoy your flight
Some people don't want/know how to talk about anything else. I mean if that's how they derive enjoyment on this forum, what can you do. It's easy to focus on the negatives. Even easier just to stick to one. I kinda like to mix it up all around, crazy as it sounds.
I was entertained through two losses, and encouraged somewhat even.
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