I don't Recognize this Malkin

KIRK

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
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Fellow sympathizer of unbacked criticism of our elite stars. (Minus Kessel)

Well, I have seen you declare a message board jihad in the name of Kristopher Letang, once or twice or a few hundred times. And that's just against me . . . :D

Jokes aside, there really are only a few explanations . . .

1. The @DocEmrickSkitters LeCavalier fear. Not unjustified given Geno's age and the abuse he's taken, especially in the last 3 years.

2. Saving himself for the playoffs. Don't see this one. I mean, I get saving himself. But, no this bad for this long.

3. Hurt. I can see this. Thing is, in the 2014-2015 season, Malkin ****** up his ankle. And he kept coming back early and ******* it up further because the team was in trouble. He could barely skate in the playoffs. After that, I know for a fact that the team became a lot more proactive about sitting him when there was an injury (as the last 3 seasons demonstrate). So, I have my doubts here.

4. @ColePens vertigo theory (or a lesser 'eyesight' issue as I wondered). Certainly would explain all of the falling down and why it seems like he can't stop when he's skating.

5. Skates issue. Someone here told me he's been publicly (to the team) complaining about his skates for 3 weeks and trying different skates all the time. Probably means it's been an issue-- or he thinks it's been an issue-- for a few weeks beyond that. Would explain a chunk of the struggles period, but 11 weeks, which is how long it's been? Not sure. And, I wonder if the skates complaint is a real issue or a way to avoid confronting another issue (hurt, vertigo, whatever).

6. Family issues. This is NOT an assertion. A few people, Rossi included, have noted that Geno's wife went back to Russia to work and took his kid with him. Geno is naturally an emotional guy. Just that-- and especially if there are issues beyond that-- one could see it having a huge impact on him.

I honestly can't think of anything else that it could be, but I'll end with this note: Whatever it is, it's interesting that Sully is treating him with kid gloves. We both know Geno can take criticism and has been called out by name by coaches in the past. So, MAYBE it's just that Sully sees nothing to gain by criticizing Geno, but I suspect there's something there from the above list contributing to that decision.

EDIT: Forgot, because @ColePens mentioned it before . . . training. Geno actually trained harder this summer than he has in a few years. There were articles on that. Out of shape guys don't start the season like he did. They start slower and then ramp it up, like Geno has the few prior seasons due to a more limited summer training schedule. So, the only theory here is that he trained way to hard and came out flying and then just ran out of gas. BUT, I don't see that. The skating issues-- not being able to stop and always falling down-- don't flow from this theory.
 
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Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
55,519
46,242
6. Family issues. This is NOT an assertion. A few people, Rossi included, have noted that Geno's wife went back to Russia to work and took his kid with him. Geno is naturally an emotional guy. Just that-- and especially if there are issues beyond that-- one could see it having a huge impact on him.

Wait, what? Why?

If Geno married me, I'd just sit around spending his money.
 

Andy99

Registered User
Jun 26, 2017
50,038
32,210
Well, I have seen you declare a message board jihad in the name of Kristopher Letang, once or twice or a few hundred times. And that's just against me . . . :D

Jokes aside, there really are only a few explanations . . .

1. The @DocEmrickSkitters LeCavalier fear. Not unjustified given Geno's age and the abuse he's taken, especially in the last 3 years.

2. Saving himself for the playoffs. Don't see this one. I mean, I get saving himself. But, no this bad for this long.

3. Hurt. I can see this. Thing is, in the 2014-2015 season, Malkin ****** up his ankle. And he kept coming back early and ******* it up further because the team was in trouble. He could barely skate in the playoffs. After that, I know for a fact that the team became a lot more proactive about sitting him when there was an injury (as the last 3 seasons demonstrate). So, I have my doubts here.

4. @ColePens vertigo theory (or a lesser 'eyesight' issue as I wondered). Certainly would explain all of the falling down and why it seems like he can't stop when he's skating.

5. Skates issue. Someone here told me he's been publicly (to the team) complaining about his skates for 3 weeks and trying different skates all the time. Probably means it's been an issue-- or he thinks it's been an issue-- for a few weeks beyond that. Would explain a chunk of the struggles period, but 11 weeks, which is how long it's been? Not sure. And, I wonder if the skates complaint is a real issue or a way to avoid confronting another issue (hurt, vertigo, whatever).

6. Family issues. This is NOT an assertion. A few people, Rossi included, have noted that Geno's wife went back to Russia to work and took his kid with him. Geno is naturally an emotional guy. Just that-- and especially if there are issues beyond that-- one could see it having a huge impact on him.

I honestly can't think of anything else that it could be, but I'll end with this note: Whatever it is, it's interesting that Sully is treating him with kid gloves. We both know Geno can take criticism and has been called out by name by coaches in the past. So, MAYBE it's just that Sully sees nothing to gain by criticizing Geno, but I suspect there's something there from the above list contributing to that decision.

EDIT: Forgot, because @ColePens mentioned it before . . . training. Geno actually trained harder this summer than he has in a few years. There were articles on that. Out of shape guys don't start the season like he did. They start slower and then ramp it up, like Geno has the few prior seasons due to a more limited summer training schedule. So, the only theory here is that he trained way to hard and came out flying and then just ran out of gas. BUT, I don't see that. The skating issues-- not being able to stop and always falling down-- don't flow from this theory.

Poor G— I hope there’s not a problem between him and his wife, which is very distracting ....don’t forgot though the 2014 season was well before this current front office and coaches, and I do believe he’s either playing with an ailment or the skates issue has been disastrous...I’ve never seen him fall so much, even when he’s trying too hard...also, he did not say he trained hard this summer...what he said was that he started skating a lot earlier than he normally does to be better ready to start the season on the ice...I wonder if all the skating took priority over core and leg work because the dude needs Sid’s lower body workout and fast...
 

ChaosAgent

Registered User
May 8, 2018
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Very on-brand for HFBoards to reject all analytics but embrace the dumbest stat out there.

Baseball front offices are hiring Ivy League PHDs, while Corsi/Fenwick/PDO are like high-school-project level stats. In fairness this is due to the relative complexity of the sport. Still, instead of counting goals, you're counting shots and making it a ratio so year to year differences don't look so dramatic/stupid. But that's just arithmetic. You could make +/- a ratio if you wanted to. Is there something better I've missed that's popular when talking analytics?

And when the Moneyball revolution hits hockey, it will categorize Malkin and Kessel's 2018-19 performance as...good?
 

ChaosAgent

Registered User
May 8, 2018
17,739
12,097
6. Family issues. This is NOT an assertion. A few people, Rossi included, have noted that Geno's wife went back to Russia to work and took his kid with him. Geno is naturally an emotional guy. Just that-- and especially if there are issues beyond that-- one could see it having a huge impact on him.

If this is true, is it possible Geno could go back to the KHL sooner than he would have otherwise? I'd assumed he would return to Magnitogorsk after his current contract ran out, but this makes me wonder. If he does, we get the $9.5M of cap next year, right?
 

JackFr

Registered User
Jun 18, 2010
4,825
3,689
Baseball front offices are hiring Ivy League PHDs, while Corsi/Fenwick/PDO are like high-school-project level stats. In fairness this is due to the relative complexity of the sport. Still, instead of counting goals, you're counting shots and making it a ratio so year to year differences don't look so dramatic/stupid. But that's just arithmetic. You could make +/- a ratio if you wanted to. Is there something better I've missed that's popular when talking analytics?

And when the Moneyball revolution hits hockey, it will categorize Malkin and Kessel's 2018-19 performance as...good?

There are plenty of proper staticians and analysts doing work on hockey who have finessed those introductory stats into something very telling through relative effects, filtering for noise, etc. Plus/minus is a terrible stat because it holds players responsible for goaltenders' play, as well as the luck of the other skaters on the ice when it comes to shooting percentage. Approaches that isolate skaters' effects, on-ice situations, and factor in shot quality are far more precise.

The point being, youre telling me that advanced stats are dumb and then using an even number stat.

And considering that analytics say the same thing about Malkin and Kessel that you do (that Malkin this year has been a clear step down from his usual self and that Kessel is an elite scorer and nothing else) I'm not sure what your point is.
 
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ChaosAgent

Registered User
May 8, 2018
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There are plenty of proper staticians and analysts doing work on hockey who have finessed those introductory stats into something very telling through relative effects, filtering for noise, etc. Plus/minus is a terrible stat because it holds players responsible for goaltenders' play, as well as the luck of the other skaters on the ice when it comes to shooting percentage. Approaches that isolate skaters' effects, on-ice situations, and factor in shot quality are far more precise.

The point being, youre telling me that advanced stats are dumb and then using an even number stat.

And considering that analytics say the same thing about Malkin and Kessel that you do (that Malkin this year has been a clear step down from his usual self and that Kessel is an elite scorer and nothing else) I'm not sure what your point is.

I appreciate your response. I agree with you on Malkin and Kessel...okay I'm more sour on Kessel generally.

My point is that compared to other sports, the gap between "traditional" and "advanced" stats is not nearly as high. A sport like baseball (sorry I'm going to talk about other sports again) is a series of isolated events by its nature and so cutting through the noise to a player's real effectiveness is much more accessible. Hockey is much noisier. But if they have made strides in uncluttering and controlling for it, that's neat. I don't ever think it will get to the level of baseball, though.

Speaking of points...knowing advanced stats are you still influenced by an "well Malkin may look really bad this year, but he's still a PPG player?" And points generally, especially secondary assists?
 

JackFr

Registered User
Jun 18, 2010
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3,689
I appreciate your response. I agree with you on Malkin and Kessel...okay I'm more sour on Kessel generally.

My point is that compared to other sports, the gap between "traditional" and "advanced" stats is not nearly as high. A sport like baseball (sorry I'm going to talk about other sports again) is a series of isolated events by its nature and so cutting through the noise to a player's real effectiveness is much more accessible. Hockey is much noisier. But if they have made strides in uncluttering and controlling for it, that's neat. I don't ever think it will get to the level of baseball, though.

Speaking of points...knowing advanced stats are you still influenced by an "well Malkin may look really bad this year, but he's still a PPG player?" And points generally, especially secondary assists?
I doubt hockey advanced stats will get to the baseball level too, but I think they're still extremely valuable when placed in the proper context.

And yes, I do take points heavily into consideration. "Possession", while important, can't win a game unless you have guys who can finish and get pucks in the net. I agree with Micah Blake McCurdy (a good guy for you to check out, a PhD who does amazing visualizations of hockey data) that primary points (goals and primary assists) at 5v5 are the best guide while still taking powerplay production into account separately. However, some guys like Kessel provide "empty calorie" scoring where they don't really do much else. I'll still take a guy like Kessel on my team who at any point can get the Pens in a game with a brilliant pass or assist that only 5% of the league could make.
 

ChaosAgent

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May 8, 2018
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I doubt hockey advanced stats will get to the baseball level too, but I think they're still extremely valuable when placed in the proper context.

And yes, I do take points heavily into consideration. "Possession", while important, can't win a game unless you have guys who can finish and get pucks in the net. I agree with Micah Blake McCurdy (a good guy for you to check out, a PhD who does amazing visualizations of hockey data) that primary points (goals and primary assists) at 5v5 are the best guide while still taking powerplay production into account separately. However, some guys like Kessel provide "empty calorie" scoring where they don't really do much else. I'll still take a guy like Kessel on my team who at any point can get the Pens in a game with a brilliant pass or assist that only 5% of the league could make.

Jack, Couple things here:
1) Where do you find tracking for primary assists, and how is Malkin's Even Strength G+Primary Assist doing this year compared to last year (adjusted for any rise in league-wide scoring?) I feel like it has to be down, significantly.

2) What would be the best way to measure his defensive impact - for better or worse?

3) I do appreciate Kessel's occasional bouts of brilliance, but the empty calorie stuff really irks me - and Sullivan. I don't think him for $6.8M is a no-brainer, at all. At this point, Jake is far ahead of him as a total player. I also question if we have other forwards who make a more positive total impact to the game despite putting up far fewer points. Hornqvist. Even Rust.
 

JackFr

Registered User
Jun 18, 2010
4,825
3,689
Jack, Couple things here:
1) Where do you find tracking for primary assists, and how is Malkin's Even Strength G+Primary Assist doing this year compared to last year (adjusted for any rise in league-wide scoring?) I feel like it has to be down, significantly.

2) What would be the best way to measure his defensive impact - for better or worse?

3) I do appreciate Kessel's occasional bouts of brilliance, but the empty calorie stuff really irks me - and Sullivan. I don't think him for $6.8M is a no-brainer, at all. At this point, Jake is far ahead of him as a total player. I also question if we have other forwards who make a more positive total impact to the game despite putting up far fewer points. Hornqvist. Even Rust.

I'm enjoying this conversation.

1.) Corsica.hockey is the best website for straightforward fancy stats stuff like primary points, but Bill Comeau's Skatr comparison tool provides percentiles that seem like what you're looking for.

You're looking for the Goals and 1st Assists bars here:
pJ4qSre.png


Basically, 2017-18 Malkin scored at a significantly higher clip and was 10 percentile points higher at primary assists (per 60 minutes of game time). Meanwhile, he's driving possession less (although the Penguins as a whole outside of the Sid line are struggling with that so his relative impact has stayed pretty steady).

Overall, he's a less dangerous player than he was last season. Hopefully he can work that out, and soon.

2.) For that, as far as what the public actually has access to, Corsi and relative Corsi are the best bet. That being said, shot heat maps can tell a decent story as well (but are only available to subscribers to Micah's HockeyViz site). Malkin is usually poor defensively but compensates by being even better offensively. This year the gist is that Malkin has been average defensively this season as far as preventing shots against goes but at the expense of a big chunk of his offensive generation.

3.) See, now you're thinking analytically. A lot of stats guys have tried to quantify a player's effect on the game holistically incorporating points and possession and other stuff using what's called "game score." I'm skeptical of them insofar as I don't think they can be considered a measure of a player's skill and quality (unless you think Jake Guentzel is a better player than Connor McDavid).

That being said, if you're not sold on the "empty calorie" scoring that Kessel brings, Jake, Horny, and Rust are exactly the kind of players who provide everything on the ice. Here's a comparison between Kessel on the left and those three on the right:

OLpQ95i.png

F0tllia.png
WSNPnrl.png


From those charts, you'd conclude that while Phil might be a better point scorer he's outstripped in the other aspects of the game. In a way, you'd be right - Phil is definitely worse defensively than these three players. However, Phil's pure scoring and playmaking talent make him extremely valuable. Very few players have his ability to finish and make players no matter who he plays with, not to mention his powerplay abilities. Rust and Hornqvist at least, despite their great value, don't provide that.

Overall I'm very glad all four players are Penguins.
 

ChaosAgent

Registered User
May 8, 2018
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I'm enjoying this conversation.

From those charts, you'd conclude that while Phil might be a better point scorer he's outstripped in the other aspects of the game. In a way, you'd be right - Phil is definitely worse defensively than these three players. However, Phil's pure scoring and playmaking talent make him extremely valuable. Very few players have his ability to finish and make players no matter who he plays with, not to mention his powerplay abilities. Rust and Hornqvist at least, despite their great value, don't provide that.

Overall I'm very glad all four players are Penguins.

Me too. I'm not going to quote the entire post as the charts would be excessive to quote. But holy hell the first half of that Malkin chart should just be pasted into the first post of this thread. So sad. Man I hope he gets it turned around. Hopefully if it's a mental thing he snaps out of it.

For "negative" stats like goals against, is having a higher score worse or better? So Kessel is in the 9th percentile of shots against; does that mean that he's worse than 91% of players of better than 91% - guessing it's "worse" but just want to be sure.

I'd still say that Kessel would be the first one off the boat out of those 4 (Jake, Hornqvist, Rust), especially if his perceived value is higher around the league than Hornqvist and Rust, and can help up land an impact defenseman. Hornqvist and Rust provide things that Kessel doesn't provide, and their holistic value is higher per your composite gamescore measure. They make less, too.
 

JackFr

Registered User
Jun 18, 2010
4,825
3,689
Me too. I'm not going to quote the entire post as the charts would be excessive to quote. But holy hell the first half of that Malkin chart should just be pasted into the first post of this thread. So sad. Man I hope he gets it turned around. Hopefully if it's a mental thing he snaps out of it.

For "negative" stats like goals against, is having a higher score worse or better? So Kessel is in the 9th percentile of shots against; does that mean that he's worse than 91% of players of better than 91% - guessing it's "worse" but just want to be sure.

I'd still say that Kessel would be the first one off the boat out of those 4 (Jake, Hornqvist, Rust), especially if his perceived value is higher around the league than Hornqvist and Rust, and can help up land an impact defenseman. Hornqvist and Rust provide things that Kessel doesn't provide, and their holistic value is higher per your composite gamescore measure. They make less, too.
All the graphs are oriented so the higher percentiles are good.
 

ronduguayshair

Registered User
Oct 23, 2017
3,583
1,398
I'm enjoying this conversation.

1.) Corsica.hockey is the best website for straightforward fancy stats stuff like primary points, but Bill Comeau's Skatr comparison tool provides percentiles that seem like what you're looking for.

You're looking for the Goals and 1st Assists bars here:
pJ4qSre.png


Basically, 2017-18 Malkin scored at a significantly higher clip and was 10 percentile points higher at primary assists (per 60 minutes of game time). Meanwhile, he's driving possession less (although the Penguins as a whole outside of the Sid line are struggling with that so his relative impact has stayed pretty steady).

Overall, he's a less dangerous player than he was last season. Hopefully he can work that out, and soon.

2.) For that, as far as what the public actually has access to, Corsi and relative Corsi are the best bet. That being said, shot heat maps can tell a decent story as well (but are only available to subscribers to Micah's HockeyViz site). Malkin is usually poor defensively but compensates by being even better offensively. This year the gist is that Malkin has been average defensively this season as far as preventing shots against goes but at the expense of a big chunk of his offensive generation.

3.) See, now you're thinking analytically. A lot of stats guys have tried to quantify a player's effect on the game holistically incorporating points and possession and other stuff using what's called "game score." I'm skeptical of them insofar as I don't think they can be considered a measure of a player's skill and quality (unless you think Jake Guentzel is a better player than Connor McDavid).

That being said, if you're not sold on the "empty calorie" scoring that Kessel brings, Jake, Horny, and Rust are exactly the kind of players who provide everything on the ice. Here's a comparison between Kessel on the left and those three on the right:

OLpQ95i.png

F0tllia.png
WSNPnrl.png


From those charts, you'd conclude that while Phil might be a better point scorer he's outstripped in the other aspects of the game. In a way, you'd be right - Phil is definitely worse defensively than these three players. However, Phil's pure scoring and playmaking talent make him extremely valuable. Very few players have his ability to finish and make players no matter who he plays with, not to mention his powerplay abilities. Rust and Hornqvist at least, despite their great value, don't provide that.

Overall I'm very glad all four players are Penguins.

Its funny that the only consistent bar on Malkin's chart is penalties.
 

BmxHockey

Registered User
Jan 4, 2012
1,155
210
San Diego
Does anyone know what Geno’s values, beliefs and personal goals/wants are?

Because we can’t play Doctor until we know his process because the organization/coaching is fine (it’s closed 2 cups last theee years).
 

ChaosAgent

Registered User
May 8, 2018
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Does anyone know what Geno’s values, beliefs and personal goals/wants are?

Because we can’t play Doctor until we know his process because the organization/coaching is fine (it’s closed 2 cups last theee years).

If according to @KIRK his wife decided to head back to Russia and take his kid with him for this season, then I'd think that's a huge deal to his "values, beliefs and personal goals/wants." *I don't blame her for doing this, by the way. Yeah, you're rich here but you're rich anywhere and it's tough in a midsized city like Pittsburgh especially if you don't have a ton of friends and don't speak English fluently. As a new parent, she probably also wants her own parents (and his) closer by. I think anyone should be able to be sympathetic/empathetic to that.

Also going off of KIRK's theories, if it's vertigo he should sit and rehab it. Vertigo is no joke and playing hockey on it is just about the worst thing you can do. We can make fun of Errey but "head on a swivel" is a big component of hockey and playing through something like Vertigo will only make it worse.
 
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EightyOne

My posts are jokes. And hockey is just a game.
Nov 23, 2016
12,697
12,034
I know love isn't logical...

...But...

Let me get involved with this super loyal player who has played in a semirural market for the last fifteen years and likely will for maybe five more.


Nice.
 

KIRK

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
109,700
51,216
Posted in tonight's PGT . . .



I don't know the last game Geno was 14:3 in scoring chances, 6:1 in high danger chances, 8-2 in the faceoff circle, was credited with 6 shots, probably attempted in total a dozen or so, and looked this strong on his skates.

I just hope at long last THIS TIME it's a sign that he's turning the corner. We'll know in, oh, about 21 hours . . .
 
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DegenX

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Aug 14, 2011
14,622
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Posted in tonight's PGT . . .



I don't know the last game Geno was 14:3 in scoring chances, 6:1 in high danger chances, 8-2 in the faceoff circle, was credited with 6 shots, probably attempted in total a dozen or so, and looked this strong on his skates.

I just hope at long last THIS TIME it's a sign that he's turning the corner. We'll know in, oh, about 21 hours . . .

yWjnnNw.gif

Sheahan is the straw
 

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