I don't Recognize this Malkin

[LOGiK]

Yes, for sure. Points, especially secondary assists, are an arbitrary statistic as well. I'd have to look more into it but I'm pretty sure basketball has incorporated all sorts of little adjustments and variations into the +/- statistic to adjust to the quality of your teammates on the floor, etc.

To answer this question: Geno has been bad this season. Not only by his standards, but as a $9.5M player. If I were to be told that we'd get this version of Geno next year, I'd say that the Penguins team would be better off if he decided that it was time that he represent Magnitogorsk again (I do think he's going to do that after this contract is over) and we get $9.5M to spend elsewhere. But I'd love him for everything that he did here.

Having said that, I'm holding out hope he bounces back.

Yeah, I figure I didn't have to say that no matter what the numbers are or how they are manipulated, Geno is having a rough time this year. His game is askew. It is well beyond obvious at this point.

 

[dogthateats]

Malkin has more assists than Sid.

 

[turd]

Well I think his +/- speaks for this season pretty well. It's his worst +/- of his career.

-16 right now with 50 pts isn't terrible, but it is pretty rough. Especially since his best + was 18. So he is at the other end of his best +/-

They’ve also given up 10 SHGs this year, which I assume he was on the ice for most of them (and to be fair, some were his fault). But I’m not gonna get bent out of shape about that stat. Yeah, he needs to be better all over the ice, but that stat is too weak for me.

I seriously really hate to be the one to say stuff like this, but this is the perfect example of how spoiled we’ve become. We have a player averaging over a point per game halfway through the season, and we’re wondering if he’s done forever. I mean...c’mon.

 

[Penguin Suited Up]

I find it interesting that in hockey, we still go by the view that +/- is a pointless and horribly flawed stat.

Whereas basketball, by all accounts a more analytically rich sport, is actually using +/- as a trendy stat to point out the true effectiveness of players and lineups.

I do think that hockey needs a better way to weight special teams and empty-net situations in +/- but color me unconvinced by arguments that it's meaningless.

If you’re unconvinced by the arguments, it’s because you’re ignoring the facts.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If you’re unconvinced by the arguments, it’s because you’re ignoring the facts.

Which are? That the player isn't fully in control of their own destiny in the +/- stat? Neither are they in basketball and it has become a trendy stat anyway.

Here's basically the arguments: they all boil down to the stat being an incomplete picture. Analysis: Plus/Minus Sucks

But very few sports statistics are, or don't come with caveats. Nothing happens in a vacuum. In hockey, we still quote points from secondary assists especially on the PP which is an incredibly flawed statistic. Again, I ask why basketball which is analytically richer is basically using variations of plus/minus in looking at players & lineups.

Just because Malkin is playing at a point-per-game does not mean he's playing fine or even at an acceptable level for a 2nd line center. Certainly not for a $9.5M player. Last night we would have been better off as a team if he were scratched (you can deny this, I don't care). That is scary to say about the 3rd-4th best player in the history of your franchise. I hope he bounces back.

 

[Jacob]

Stick to basketball.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Stick to basketball.

Sorry, I'm a human who has favorite players but is willing to be objective about their level of play. Others can't handle it; I get it.

 

[Turin]

Sorry, I'm a human who has favorite players but is willing to be objective about their level of play. Others can't handle it; I get it.

Plus minus is absolutely meaningless by itself because you need to factor in QoC, ToI, QoTM and Save% and Shooting%.. so basically in order to use it at all, you need to use all other stats for context.

Malkin has sucked the last couple months.. he could be playing great and have a heavy minus. He could be playing poorly, but carried by his linemates and goaltending and have a strong plusminus.

 

[Jacob]

Sorry, I'm a human who has favorite players but is willing to be objective about their level of play. Others can't handle it; I get it.

“Once again I am being attacked for presenting new ideas.”

 

[EightyOne]

I find it interesting that in hockey, we still go by the view that +/- is a pointless and horribly flawed stat.

Whereas basketball, by all accounts a more analytically rich sport, is actually using +/- as a trendy stat to point out the true effectiveness of players and lineups.

I do think that hockey needs a better way to weight special teams and empty-net situations in +/- but color me unconvinced by arguments that it's meaningless.

Kinda beating a dead horse here, but...

How often do lineups really change in basketball?

There are no on the fly line changes that can catch you out.

There are no special teams.

There are no pulled goalie situations.



In my limited caring of basketball, lineups are fairly static until the end of a game that you're losing and people start fouling out. Looks like 80% of the roster just sits in track suits all game.

Who you play with in hockey is much more dynamic, to where +/- isn't effective.

 

[ChaosAgent]

“Once again I am being attacked for presenting new ideas.”

I'll just hope he (and Kessel) play better, which goes beyond points. We stand absolutely zero chance if they don't.

 

[KIRK]

Have been trying to avoid this thread, but will pop in to offer 2 notes:

1. @DocEmrickSkitters, while a little over the top, isn't unjustified in his concerns.

2. I have to give @ronduguayshair credit. I've read some really stupid **** on this site. Hell, I've been around long enough on Penguins boards to have read Shawn Lesky. So, I'd like to think that I've seen it all. BUT, his 'Malkin hasn't been the same since signing the contact' and 'he's been like he is now for years' schtick really is, as @vodeni noted last night, the single stupidest thing ever written on this or any other Penguins message board. It's not as if Malkin didn't have one of the best two month runs of his career in the last 12 months. It's not as if Malkin, rather than Crosby, didn't lead the 2017 playoffs in scoring (with the higher +/-). It's not as if 2 of the 5 best +/- rankings of Malkin's career didn't come in the previous two seasons or that his points per game were among the best in the league. It's not as if he wasn't getting it done when everyone was quitting on Mike Johnston. You know, I was going to reply by saying it seems that Phil Bourque started posting here incognito, but truth be told, not even Bourque utters **** this ******* dumb.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Kinda beating a dead horse here, but...

How often do lineups really change in basketball?

There are no on the fly line changes that can catch you out.

There are no special teams.

There are no pulled goalie situations.

In my limited caring of basketball, lineups are fairly static until the end of a game that you're losing and people start fouling out. Looks like 80% of the roster just sits in track suits all game.

Who you play with in hockey is much more dynamic, to where +/- isn't effective.

Here's just a random boxscore from tonight: Raptors vs. Celtics - Box Score - January 16, 2019 - ESPN 9 guys played for each team, but I hear you that in hockey it's 18+the goalie.

Plus/minus is definitely a flawed stat but so are all of them individually, as a guy said above you have to look at the player's stats in composite. Points are a flawed stat, too. Corsi and Fenwick, from what I can tell, are basically +/- but just with a bigger sample of stuff (shots instead of goals) and presented as a ratio and not a "difference" (A/B instead of A-B). Certainly the most obvious adjustments to the plus/minus stat would be to make powerplay goals worth something (maybe not a full-plus but some fractional plus), PK goals against worth something (same thing as above) and definitely make a similar adjustment to empty-net situations where the goal expectancy is much higher for the leading team. Then you'd build in some sort of framework to bring in quality-of-linemates and competition, although I know there's other stats that do that already.

 

[ronduguayshair]

2. I have to give @ronduguayshair credit. I've read some really stupid **** on this site. Hell, I've been around long enough on Penguins boards to have read Shawn Lesky. So, I'd like to think that I've seen it all. BUT, his 'Malkin hasn't been the same since signing the contact' and 'he's been like he is now for years' schtick really is, as @vodeni noted last night, the single stupidest thing ever written on this or any other Penguins message board. It's not as if Malkin didn't have one of the best two month runs of his career in the last 12 months. It's not as if Malkin, rather than Crosby, didn't lead the 2017 playoffs in scoring (with the higher +/-). It's not as if 2 of the 5 best +/- rankings of Malkin's career didn't come in the previous two seasons or that his points per game were among the best in the league. It's not as if he wasn't getting it done when everyone was quitting on Mike Johnston. You know, I was going to reply by saying it seems that Phil Bourque started posting here incognito, but truth be told, not even Bourque utters **** this ******* dumb.

All that you wrote just proves my point. You can point to periods of success and that’s tremendous but he isn’t a consistent player. And he hasn’t been since signing that contract. Saying a player isn’t consistent isn’t saying he’s not good. But his inconsistent play leaves him off say the 100 greatest players and leaves him out of the best players in the league conversation.

Furthermore, I no longer think he’s elite five on five. The only area of his game that’s elite is his power play offense and his penalty minutes.

All the negatives are fine with me if he’s saving himself for the playoffs. That’s all I care about.

Agree to disagree. I’m not here to win arguments but I feel I owe it to myself to represent my opinion. He’s lucky he plays behind Sid. He’s the Teflon superstar. All criticism is supposed to just slide off.

Saying you thought I was Phil Bourque is a compliment appearing as a professional in a sea of amateurs.

 

[Jacob]

But his inconsistent play leaves him off say the 100 greatest players

I think that list was unanimously agreed upon to be a farce, specifically because Malkin wasn't on it.

 

[ChaosAgent]

All that you wrote just proves my point. You can point to periods of success and that’s tremendous but he isn’t a consistent player. And he hasn’t been since signing that contract. Saying a player isn’t consistent isn’t saying he’s not good. But his inconsistent play leaves him off say the 100 greatest players and leaves him out of the best players in the league conversation.

So I find myself in some agreement with the second half of your post. I really strongly disagree with the contract thing.

I think objectively what hurt Malkin's "story" (and his level of recognition) more than anything were the '09-'10 and '10-'11 seasons. Like, his first three years he goes on a rookie tear and then finishes 2nd to Ovi in Hart both of the next two years. Team goes to a finals and then wins a cup. He wins the Smythe. People had started to include him with Crosby & Ovechkin as a sort of "3 generational players" type group. Then he has two seasons where he kinda regresses, and in that 2nd season he gets badly injured after that collision with Tyler Myers. So like, he was in the Crosby/Ovechkin grouping but then fell off for 2 years, leaving that group in people's minds.

Then he comes back after that with his incredible '11-'12 and he has been really, really good - albeit injury prone - ever since. Until this year. Anyway, it was still laughable that he didn't make the list but I don't think it was a perception of his overall inconsistency. I think those two down years in '09-'10 and '10-'11 really hurt his recognition-levels.

 

[Icarium]

He’s lucky he plays behind Sid.

I am pretty sure his stats are better with Sid out of the line-up. Playing behind Sid is a double edged sword. Yes, the opposition is usually easier. But on the flip side Malkin would have better wingers on practically any other team and more offensive help from the defense too. He would also get to play on his favourite one-timer spot on the PP on most teams and would receive passes in his wheelhouse more than once every few games (my pet peeve about our PP is how little we use Geno's one-timer).

But his inconsistent play leaves him off say the 100 greatest players

Really? A list which includes Jonathan Toews is something we should take seriously? Also, Crosby has been pretty inconsistent in the last few seasons too, I guess he needs to give up his place on that list too.

He’s the Teflon superstar. All criticism is supposed to just slide off.

And yet he gets criticized far more than Crosby.

 

[vodeni]

I wrote more about Geno then any other player, so I'll stay away from that
I want to add some to a +/- discussion:
I really like that stat. No idea why people ignore that. i don't care if you are combination of Mario, Gretzky and Sid, if you get scored on more that you score its not good. remember when Tanger really sucked his minus went through the roof, when he is on it all of a sudden he is a plus player...
Howeever its not that simple: if your line is matched up against really good lines well its hard to maintain the high +/-
if you are playing 70% of your shifts behind Maatta or JJ or something like that, chances are your +/- will be different than playing behind Tanger and Dumo (no brainer0
So as a stat its a very good starting point in analyzing one's play

Now about Geno and his bad +/- stat this year. I watch him obsessively and could go with you here goal by goal against...but trust me on this one...Inmy years of watching hockey I have never seen weirdest thing as I am seeing this year with Geno. There must be at least half a dozen goals that as soon as he jumps over the boards in we got scored on without him having any part of the play development. There are weird bounces and may other things if you go goal by goal. Its just the weirdest thing ever. last month he is basically playing defense all the time way too deep that hurts his line cause Pearson and Horny and Simon cannot hold onto the puck until he joins the attack and the puck is already other way. Other than this last game his +/_ I think (without checking) during this winning stretch has been good.

 

[KIRK]

So I find myself in some agreement with the second half of your post. I really strongly disagree with the contract thing.

I think objectively what hurt Malkin's "story" (and his level of recognition) more than anything were the '09-'10 and '10-'11 seasons. Like, his first three years he goes on a rookie tear and then finishes 2nd to Ovi in Hart both of the next two years. Team goes to a finals and then wins a cup. He wins the Smythe. People had started to include him with Crosby & Ovechkin as a sort of "3 generational players" type group. Then he has two seasons where he kinda regresses, and in that 2nd season he gets badly injured after that collision with Tyler Myers. So like, he was in the Crosby/Ovechkin grouping but then fell off for 2 years, leaving that group in people's minds.

Then he comes back after that with his incredible '11-'12 and he has been really, really good - albeit injury prone - ever since. Until this year. Anyway, it was still laughable that he didn't make the list but I don't think it was a perception of his overall inconsistency. I think those two down years in '09-'10 and '10-'11 really hurt his recognition-levels.

And his issue the previous 3 seasons was NOT consistency. It was health.

Actually the last 4 seasons. He was great in Mike Johnston's first year UNTIL he got that ankle injury and kept trying to come back to early. It's why he could barely skate in the playoffs, although someone like @ronduguayshair would say he was bad in the playoffs that year because of a lack of heart or details.

Truth be told, Malkin played hockry every bit as good as his best years in the 4 seasons after Bylsma was fired. His 200 foot hockey was better than any time since Therrien was fired.

This is my objection to that clown @ronduguayshair. Not his critique of Geno's game NOW. Heck, I've been in a full fledged panic about his game since late November.

Rather the issue is his ignoring and otherwise white washing the last 4 years as a consistency issue rather than 4 years of CONSISTENTLY great play interrupted only by injuries.

That was the single dumbest thing I've ever read on a Penguins message board and wreaks at this point only of deliberate trolling or a sign that he needs to see a doctor about memory issues.

cc: @vodeni

 

[ronduguayshair]

And his issue the previous 3 seasons was NOT consistency. It was health.

Actually the last 4 seasons. He was great in Mike Johnston's first year UNTIL he got that ankle injury and kept trying to come back to early. It's why he could barely skate in the playoffs, although someone like @ronduguayshair would say he was bad in the playoffs that year because of a lack of heart or details.

Truth be told, Malkin played hockry every bit as good as his best years in the 4 seasons after Bylsma was fired. His 200 foot hockey was better than any time since Therrien was fired.

This is my objection to that clown @ronduguayshair. Not his critique of Geno's game NOW. Heck, I've been in a full fledged panic about his game since late November.

Rather the issue is his ignoring and otherwise white washing the last 4 years as a consistency issue rather than 4 years of CONSISTENTLY great play interrupted only by injuries.

That was the single dumbest thing I've ever read on a Penguins message board and wreaks at this point only of deliberate trolling or a sign that he needs to see a doctor about memory issues.

cc: @vodeni

Agree to disagree. Please no personal attacks.

 

[Gurglesons]

Agree to disagree. Please no personal attacks.

KIRK takes negative comments about Malkin as personal attacks.

 

[ChaosAgent]

And his issue the previous 3 seasons was NOT consistency. It was health.

Actually the last 4 seasons. He was great in Mike Johnston's first year UNTIL he got that ankle injury and kept trying to come back to early. It's why he could barely skate in the playoffs, although someone like @ronduguayshair would say he was bad in the playoffs that year because of a lack of heart or details.

Truth be told, Malkin played hockry every bit as good as his best years in the 4 seasons after Bylsma was fired. His 200 foot hockey was better than any time since Therrien was fired.

This is my objection to that clown @ronduguayshair. Not his critique of Geno's game NOW. Heck, I've been in a full fledged panic about his game since late November.

Rather the issue is his ignoring and otherwise white washing the last 4 years as a consistency issue rather than 4 years of CONSISTENTLY great play interrupted only by injuries.

That was the single dumbest thing I've ever read on a Penguins message board and wreaks at this point only of deliberate trolling or a sign that he needs to see a doctor about memory issues.

cc: @vodeni

Agree with all of this, maybe not the name calling but hey it's the internet.

Malkin was great the last couple years in the regular season and certainly in the 2017 playoffs. He seemed hurt in the 2016 playoffs. But like you, @KIRK, visions of Vinny Lecavalier's swift downfall from #1C to healthy scratch have been playing around in my head watching Malkin these last few months. And honestly, I don't care about his points when he's failing the eye test as badly as he is.

 

[KIRK]

KIRK takes negative comments about Malkin as personal attacks.

I guess your comment means that you share @ronduguayshair opinion that Malkin hasnt been the same since signing his last contract and has been inconsistent the last 3-4 seasons.

Hardly surprising.

EDIT: Or were you disagreeing with my characterizing that nonsense as the single dumbest thing I've read on a Penguins board due to professional jealousy?

 

[Gurglesons]

I guess your comment means that you share @ronduguayshair opinion that Malkin hasnt been the same since signing his last contract and has been inconsistent the last 3-4 seasons.

Hardly surprising.

EDIT: Or were you disagreeing with my characterizing that nonsense as the single dumbest thing I've read on a Penguins board due to professional jealousy?

Fellow sympathizer of unbacked criticism of our elite stars. (Minus Kessel)

 

[JackFr]

I wrote more about Geno then any other player, so I'll stay away from that
I want to add some to a +/- discussion:
I really like that stat. No idea why people ignore that.

The number of people who liked a post saying that +/- is a meaningful stat explains a lot of arguments I've seen on this board.

Very on-brand for HFBoards to reject all analytics but embrace the dumbest stat out there.