Hypothetical: the Devils win the draft lottery

[KevinRedkey]

What I think will happen:
1. Devils will have as many "balls" as they normally would, based on their position in the standings (otherwise the %s are off)
2. If they "lose" the lottery, it's just a regular forfeit
3. If they win the lottery, I think the NHL will basically just announce that the 30th place team has won the lottery (since they would get the 1st choice regardless) and New Jersey would forfeit their regular pick based on the standings.

Mathematically speaking, each team has the same chances they would any year (based on standings), but the 30th overall team would have their regular chances AND whatever chances New Jersey has at winning as well. I just don't think the NHL would say "New Jersey has won the draft lottery", even if they did. I think they would simply say "X team (30th) won the draft lottery" because they kind of did, by New Jersey's ball getting picked.

EDIT:
Basically if New Jersey wins, there is no lottery "winner". Everyone stays where they are.. no one moves up 5 spots, and everyone thinks the 30th place team won.

 

[Gnashville]

Huh? I'm not sure I understand what you are getting at.

There is no logical reason to move the Devils down to 14th, and even if you did they would still be eligible for the lottery and the first overall pick (0.5% chance). Excluding them still manipulates the odds of the lottery.

The lottery is there to determine the draft order, nothing else. The Devils pick goes down in the history books as forfeited so the pick that is forfeited should be determined the same way as any other year.

Excluding the Devils on the basis that it increases the chances of the worst team in the League picking first is the League saying that teams shouldn't gain a drafting "advantage" from a team forfeiting a pick. Which is impossible to do unless we are talking about the last overall.

Basically the team picking 1st gets theirs and the Devils chances. If they finish 1st or 2nd then thats a 60% chance of winning!! Everyone is going to shift up from where the Devils finish anyways why not keep the odds as if the team did finish 14th. I think they will finish in the 7-10 range myself.

 

[Moskau]

Basically the team picking 1st gets theirs and the Devils chances. If they finish 1st or 2nd then thats a 60% chance of winning!! Everyone is going to shift up from where the Devils finish anyways why not keep the odds as if the team did finish 14th. I think they will finish in the 7-10 range myself.

It's not a 60% chance. Last place is a 25% chance to win now. 25% + whatever odds the Devils have.

 

[3 Minute Minor]

Basically the team picking 1st gets theirs and the Devils chances. If they finish 1st or 2nd then thats a 60% chance of winning!! Everyone is going to shift up from where the Devils finish anyways why not keep the odds as if the team did finish 14th. I think they will finish in the 7-10 range myself.

Your numbers are way off but even if that does happen, so what? The team finished last so they're odds should be best, if the #2 has to forfeit their pick it shouldn't change anything. The team who finishes last just gets more chances to pick #1 which they should and the teams who finished 3rd last+ shouldn't get better odds just because the Devils failed.

 

[Alklha]

Basically the team picking 1st gets theirs and the Devils chances. If they finish 1st or 2nd then thats a 60% chance of winning!! Everyone is going to shift up from where the Devils finish anyways why not keep the odds as if the team did finish 14th. I think they will finish in the 7-10 range myself.

Those are nothing close to being the correct odds. Even if the Devils finished with the second worst record and were included in the lottery then the worst team would only have a 43.8% chance of picking first overall. If the Devils finish 6th worst then the worst team has a 31.2% chance of picking first.

People are focusing on the fact that it increases the chances of the worst team getting the first overall (which would still be significantly lower than it was in 2012), and ignoring that under the concept of having a lottery to determine draft order that they have an equal right to benefit from a team forfeiting a pick as any other team in the League.

No team has their chances harmed by including New Jersey and the CBA lays down the draft lottery pretty clearly, it is tough to see them being left out. I'm not saying it's an ideal solution, but there isn't a logical reason to treat the draft lottery any different to any other year.

 

[Ralonzo]

I'm pretty sure the pick just doesn't exist. If it were in the lottery it would essentially compound to the team that finishes last.

e.g. Lets say Edmonton finishes last and has a 40 or whatever % chance at number 1. New Jersey finishes second last and has a 20% chance. If New Jersey wins, and is forced to forfeit their pick, Edmonton get the number 1 pick anyway. This gives them a total of a 60% chance of getting the number 1 pick.

This is unfair to all other teams so presumably the Devils pick will be treated as if it does not exist.

This is not at all unfair to all the teams - in fact the exact opposite is the case. The Devils have had the opportunity right up until they made their 1st round selection in the past 2 drafts, to inform the league that they would forfeit their pick as was required by the league. That they didn't do so is no fault of any other teams in the league. If the result of their actions is that in this draft, if New Jersey is a lottery team, the worst overall team has their own chance, plus the Devils chance of picking first overall - that's the fault of GMLL and nobody else.

It is incumbent on the NHL to maintain the integrity of the lottery process as it is designed, and not alter it so as not to "embarrass" one of their General Managers for failing to forfeit a 29th overall pick when he had the chance and instead being forced to forfeit the 1st overall.

 

[Lord Helix]

Feels like justice for the whole Scott Stevens fiasco as a Blues fan. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised (or that upset) if they let this slide. It was within the rules...

 

[BigAl]

No they won't. The lottery doesn't impact the overall draft order - just who picks first (and the winner will pump the teams between #1 and the winner's original draft spot down a place in the first round).

Yes they will, actually. The NJ Devils lotto balls will be in the lottery. The NHL will determine their percentage of lottery balls in accordance with their finish in the standings this season. The percentage of NJ's lotto balls will have to be in there because they will have an impact on the other team's percentage of lotto balls, and thus impact the other team's probability of winning the lottery.

 

[BruinsBtn]

The logo will be a picture of Stefan Matteau's mug

 

[SmellOfVictory]

From Lebrun:



http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/27619/rumblings-gms-likely-to-address-fightning

It would be extremely sad to see Devils win the lottery and happen to lose out on McDavid.

EDIT: Not McDavid, Reinhart or Ekblad. My mistake.

I suppose that makes sense. Taking them out proportionally increases the chances of winning the lottery for teams that finish higher in the standings. Say they would hypothetically finish last, but no balls are entered in the lottery for them: That 25% split amongst 13 teams would be roughly 2% increased odds per team; for the highest-ranked non-playoff team, that would increase the odds from 0.5% to 2.5% (roughly), which is 500% increase in the odds of winning the lottery. For the second worst team, you'd be adding 2% to 18.8%, which is only about a 10% increase in the odds of winning the lottery. In a small way, it would potentially screw the teams that finished lower in the standings.

 

[jmelm]

Ever since the Devil's didn't relinquish their selection in the "weak" draft year the season that they went to the Cup, I felt that it was apparent to me that the Devils were planning on appealing this punishment. They paid a significant amount in fines & the pick they already had to give up, while every other team (Hossa, Franzen, Pronger, etc.) didn't get slapped with anything. I know this was the most blatantly bad contract, but still, I think enough is enough and it's excessive.

AND, that was before Kovalchuk bolted for Russia, which makes their "appeal" case that much stronger. They already got screwed big time in that, especially when you also factor in what they gave up to get him + the fines. And the fact that they are a team who is in financial difficulty and has attendance woes, it would behove the NHL to not let this team and their fans miss out on a high pick that could do wonders for that franchise.

I really hope this happens. And if the NHL still wants to give them some sort of a fine, they could change the draft pick to a 2nd/3rd/4th rounder instead.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

How does Kovalchuk leaving make their case stronger? It has no bearing on their case at all. None. Not an ounce. They already had a benefit of the contract by getting to the Cup finals. You can't be serious with that.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Ever since the Devil's didn't relinquish their selection in the "weak" draft year the season that they went to the Cup, I felt that it was apparent to me that the Devils were planning on appealing this punishment. They paid a significant amount in fines & the pick they already had to give up, while every other team (Hossa, Franzen, Pronger, etc.) didn't get slapped with anything. I know this was the most blatantly bad contract, but still, I think enough is enough and it's excessive.

AND, that was before Kovalchuk bolted for Russia, which makes their "appeal" case that much stronger. They already got screwed big time in that, especially when you also factor in what they gave up to get him + the fines. And the fact that they are a team who is in financial difficulty and has attendance woes, it would behove the NHL to not let this team and their fans miss out on a high pick that could do wonders for that franchise.

I really hope this happens. And if the NHL still wants to give them some sort of a fine, they could change the draft pick to a 2nd/3rd/4th rounder instead.

The NHL told them they must give up a 1st round pick between the 2011 - 2014 draft, because of the first contract that Kovalchuk had signed. Plus they had told Lou not to have that press conference announcing the first deal, so they gave him a chance to avoid all this. That's why Kovalchuk deciding to "retire" and play in Russia has no effect on them appealing the decision of lossing their 1st round pick.

Personally speaking I wish the NHL had not given the Devils the option to choose what year they would lose their 1st round pick, making sure they didn't have it in 2011. Had that happened they would have lost the 4th overall pick.

 

[WangMustGo]

How does Kovalchuk leaving make their case stronger? It has no bearing on their case at all. None. Not an ounce. They already had a benefit of the contract by getting to the Cup finals. You can't be serious with that.

Yep, Kovalchuk would have never signed with the Devils if they didnt offer him that contract.

 

[TylerSVT*]

That doesn't keep the odds the same at all.

There is no logical reason to exclude the Devils from the draft lottery. The pick will be marked down in draft history as forfeited, and it is correct that they should determine the position of the pick in the exact same way as any other year,

Yes it does. Removing them from the lottery skews the winning percentage that is already in place (IE, last place gets 25% with 14 teams in the lottery, with 13 the last place gets a +25% chance).

They HAVE to include them in the lottery, if they by chance win, its going be a kick in the nuts, and then the draft order is basically what it was before hand.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Yep, Kovalchuk would have never signed with the Devils if they didnt offer him that contract.

Exactly. This really isn't all that difficult yet sole feel that him leaving means something. Bizarre.

 

[Ace88*]

Let's also add that this cap punishment is a made up penalty.

There was no rule that said that if you do these type of contracts that you will be penalized a draft pick.

Many cap circumvention contracts have been made and none of them faced the threat of penalty.

Come on man. That contract was the most egregious, obvious attempt at a circumvention out of all of them. 17 years with like 4 years of 1 mil or less? Get outta here.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Come on man. That contract was the most egregious, obvious attempt at a circumvention out of all of them. 17 years with like 4 years of 1 mil or less? Get outta here.

Except for the fact that there was nothing in the CBA which prevented it or drew a line. The NHL could have just voided the contract, told them to draft a new one, and then introduced a rule that draws a limit as to term and drop off. They had plenty of opportunity to include it in the CBA or amend the rule, but the league chose not to.

Wasn't what Emery did last week egregious? Yeah, and both Shanahan and Bettman said they were against his actions. But there was no rule against it. As a result, Emery gets no discipline.


I'm not going to get off on a huge tangent about independent arbitrators in sports, but the bottom line is their rulings are generally made in their own self-interest. An arbitrator can be unilaterally disqualified by either the union or the league at any time. If the arbitrator sides with one party too often, the other party will disqualify them. It was Bloch's turn to side with the league to save his own ass, so he did it. Either way, the punishment was complete horse ****. The contract should have been voided, and a new rule drafted to amend the CBA. That's it.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Except for the fact that there was nothing in the CBA which prevented it or drew a line. The NHL could have just voided the contract, told them to draft a new one, and then introduced a rule that draws a limit as to term and drop off. They had plenty of opportunity to include it in the CBA or amend the rule, but the league chose not to.

They already did that the first time.