Hypothetical draft vs playoffs scenario

[Orca Smash]

Idk how I feel about it - I'd argue we are just about looking in at what Chicago had.

We have players like Hoglander/Podz/MacEwen/Lind/Lockwood/Woo/Rathbone/Tryamkin/Juolevi/Rafferty who look poised to pushing for a roster spot in the next 1-3 years. Which fills a lot of holes IMO. Now we definitely could use another defender - but I can see something like:

Petey-Miller-Podz
Hoglander-Bo-Boeser
Lind-Gaudette-Virtanen
Rous/UFA-Beagle-MacEwen


Hughes-Tryamkin
Edler-Rafferty
Myers- CHEAP UFA/Woo/Juolevi

Many will scoff over this D - but it's actually very solid. Tryamkin is Hughes perfect partner IMO.

I like Podkolzin and Hoglander, but they still have a long way to go, same with lind especially. Tryamkin could be good but highly doubt he is a first pairing guy if he even comes over. That lineup has alot of best case scenarios in it and unreasonable expectations imo.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

We want Cup! There is almost no chance we get a top 3 pick. Take our pick this year. Next year potentially losing Markstrom, Toffoli, Tanev etc. to free agency is a possibility, with depleted depth and possible injuries, we could end up in the basement.

 

[dombrova22]

I like Podkolzin and Hoglander, but they still have a long way to go, same with lind especially. Tryamkin could be good but highly doubt he is a first pairing guy if he even comes over. That lineup has alot of best case scenarios in it and unreasonable expectations imo.

A lot? I'd say it literally has one best case scenario in Tryamkin.

 

[Hammer79]

Even if lottery picks are up for grabs, it's no guarantee that we would get it from the round of 8 play in losers. We could end up being one of the highest point percentage teams to not advance, giving us crap odds on the second round of drawing.

I'm so bored without sports going on... I just want to see the natural conclusion to this season, no matter how it plays out. I'll worry about the 2nd drawing if we lose to the Wild. Until then, I'm cheering them on.

 

[RobertKron]

A lot? I'd say it literally has one best case scenario in Tryamkin.

Uh, Lind, Rafferty, Podkolzin?

 

[dombrova22]

Uh, Lind, Rafferty, Podkolzin?

Podkolzin is a monster and WILL be a top player. Rafferty has already shown at the AHL level he is the real deal - and he will thrive in the NHL alongside a vet like Edler. Lind I'll give ya I suppose.

 

[strattonius]

It's sad that our fanbase has polls on whether or not they are cheering for the team

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Voted for gangbuster, which is what I would do whenever the Canucks make the playoff anyways. But especially since this year is, IMO, the only year we are realistically able to do any damage in the foreseeable future. After this "run" we will be without 1 or 2 of Markstrom, Tanev or Toffoli. We are probably not making the playoff again for a couple of seasons, so we got to put all our hope into this season.
Losing just to have a long shot at a top 3 pick, in a year where Weisbrod is running the draft table? Not worth it.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Voted for the first option. No point wishing on an unlikely hypothetical when the team has a chance to make a run. The odds of getting those picks would be 12.5% for the first pick and 14.29% for the other pick. Those are pretty bad odds that fans shouldn't place a lot of hope on.

 

[Hammer79]

Voted for the first option. No point wishing on an unlikely hypothetical when the team has a chance to make a run. The odds of getting those picks would be 12.5% for the first pick and 14.29% for the other pick. Those are pretty bad odds that fans shouldn't place a lot of hope on.

The odds that any bottom 8 team gets one of those picks are the numbers you quoted. We would still have to beat out 8 teams in a second drawing.

 

[Blue and Green]

Voted for the first option. No point wishing on an unlikely hypothetical when the team has a chance to make a run. The odds of getting those picks would be 12.5% for the first pick and 14.29% for the other pick. Those are pretty bad odds that fans shouldn't place a lot of hope on.

The odds are 12.5% on each in advance, i.e., 25% of a top-3 for each play-in loser, if two lottery picks go to them as a group. It would only be 14.29% for the remaining pick after you knew that the team had lost the initial draw.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

The odds that any bottom 8 team gets one of those picks are the numbers you quoted. We would still have to beat out 8 teams in a second drawing.

Aye, you are correct.

Do we know what the odds are for the 7 non-playoff teams?

If the odds are weighed evenly, the 1st lottery and the chances a placeholder team would be drawn would be 8/15 (7 non-playoff teams + 8 placeholder teams = 15 total). So a 53% chance a placeholder team is drawn in the 1st lottery, if all things are equal.

 

[Blue and Green]

The odds in Phase 1 are the same as usual for the bottom seven teams; they have a combined 75.5% chance of taking the first overall pick.

The difference is that if there is a Phase 2, the 8-15 teams will be given equally weighted chances for whatever lottery picks have gone to them as a group. On a long-term weighted average the 8-15 teams would collect approximately 0.8 picks in the top three per season-- so if we assume the Canucks are 50/50 vs Minnesota, as of right now they have about 5% chance of winning a top-3 pick. 0.8/8/2 = 0.05

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Well said.

It’s like I’ve been saying for years now. There’s more to building a winning team and a winning organization than lottery pick accumulation. Edmonton and Buffalo say hi. Guys like Pettersson, Horvat, Boeser, etc., greatly benefit from playoff exposure and possibly going relatively deep as well. All of our players (including Ferland from what I hear) will be healthy when the games start and so we have as good a chance as any.

The 3rd overall pick and any other lottery pick can go straight to hell.

And how often has Horvat credited Henrik for his development? One of the big reasons Edmonton and Buffalo failed is they didn't have anyone mentoring the kids, especially in a city like Edmonton where hockey fans are nuts.

Getting Lafreniere would be amazing. But unless you can 100% guarantee we get him should we tank the Wild series. I'm going to cheer for the Canucks.

 

[Horse McHindu]

And how often has Horvat credited Henrik for his development? One of the big reasons Edmonton and Buffalo failed is they didn't have anyone mentoring the kids, especially in a city like Edmonton where hockey fans are nuts.

Getting Lafreniere would be amazing. But unless you can 100% guarantee we get him should we tank the Wild series. I'm going to cheer for the Canucks.

You’re a wise man good sir.....wise man.