Hurricanes Lounge XXXII: wait, but why?

[MrazeksVengeance]

Whatever else is true, this one squarely falls in the "saw it coming" bucket.

I've been telling people for years that gender reveal parties are attention seeking and unnecessary.

As far as I am concerned, shouting it's a boy/girl after the birth is where I would stop.

...

In other news, my team (captain is my teammate and a fellow med student from a lower year) has won the first match of the local trivia pub quiz league. To put into perspective we have beaten local tryhards who have managed to place on the podium on a national level and to toot my own horn, my random knowledge of bird biology (EDIT: ornithology is a word) and more importantly Hungarian history came in handy.

Didn't know my interest in post-WWI history could land me free booze.

 

[Negan4Coach]

Welp, gents, the OBX had its shit pushed in this week. Waves are bigger than I’ve ever seen them, 30-40 mph sustained Onshore winds have been hammering away for over 72 hours straight. About to lose my mind with the Constant whistling and shaking house. Hurricane offshore plus new moon tide= Half the town under 2 feet of ocean water and Hwy 12 cut in numerous places.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Pretty much what SlavinAway said.

And I’ll add to it, as far as the political realm goes, it’s definitely seemed to have gotten worse. I talked to my parents this weekend and they said it’s never been this bad. Like, politicians have always had a reputation for being shifty, lying, two-faced, etc, but in the past (in their words) “they did a better job of hiding it.”

The blatant lies and hypocrisy aren’t even being hidden anymore.

Lindsey Graham blocking Obama’s appointment in 2016:

“I want you to use my words against me. If there’s a Republican president in 2016 and a vacancy occurs in the last year of the first term, you can say 'Lindsey Graham said let’s let the next president, whoever it might be, make that nomination.'"

Lindsey Graham in 2018:

"If an opening comes in the last year of President Trump's term, and the primary process has started, we'll wait to the next election."

Lindsey Graham last week:

“I will support President Trump in any effort to move forward regarding the recent vacancy created by the passing of Justice Ginsburg.”

Now, it could be that it’s simply easier now to find instances of hypocritical statements due to the Internet keeping literally everything around forever, and I’m sure that definitely helps, but I also think many politicians have just stopped caring about how they come off, because they know they’re basically set for life, regardless of what they do or say.

Maybe he has just evolved in his thinking. I recall another, more important politician changing his stance (on a human rights issue, no less) in a similar way, and yet nary a peep - because it was the popular thing to do.

He also wasn’t running for re-election so he didn’t have to pander to anyone.

 

[MinJaBen]

Welp, gents, the OBX had its shit pushed in this week. Waves are bigger than I’ve ever seen them, 30-40 mph sustained Onshore winds have been hammering away for over 72 hours straight. About to lose my mind with the Constant whistling and shaking house. Hurricane offshore plus new moon tide= Half the town under 2 feet of ocean water and Hwy 12 cut in numerous places.
View attachment 368422 View attachment 368423 View attachment 368424

Wow! What town is that in the picture?

 

[HisIceness]

Yikes, be careful out there @Negan4Coach

 

[Negan4Coach]

Wow! What town is that in the picture?

Avon. Took the pics myself this morning. Driving on Hwy12 in town- it fills up like a bathtub everytime the dunes are breached on oceanview drive (which is coincidentally where the real Negan has a house) which is every stinking time the wind blows at over 30mph onshore for 3 or more high tide cycles. It won't let me upload my videos but I'll take another crack at it

 

[The Stranger]

1. Outside of fringe conspiracy theories this is pretty well accepted.

2. Australia had their most devastating fire in history at the beginning of the year. 6 of California's largest fires in history were burning at the same time. Over 10% of the population of Oregon had to be evacuated. For only the second time we've run out of Atlantic storm names and are using the Greek alphabet.

3. 4 years ago one side blocked confirmation hearings because it was 9 months until an election. That same side is now trying to rush through a pick with an election less than 45 days away.

The lab leak thesis is viable. An accidental leak by definition would be non-conspiratorial (although I suppose a cover-up would be a conspiracy). From what I've read there's no definitive origin story right now...the prevalent theory is that it was born in nature...that being said there are past documented lab leaks in China of H1N1 and SARS and I would not rule it out here.

On the natural disaster front, I'm looking for aggregate statistics. For instance, here is a history of forest fires in the US measured by acres burned. This article says that in 2020 year to date, the US has ~6.9 million acres burned. Seems to be in the normal distribution.

My point on the judge appointment squabbles is that it's not something unique to 2020. The recent lack of principle/consistency/integrity on the appointment/hearing for the Supremes is disappointing, but I can't remember a time when political skulduggery was not occurring.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I love it when someone uses the word skulduggery in a post.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

I love it when someone uses the word skulduggery in a post.

I believe someone used “skull f***” earlier today as well. Which is an awesome term.

 

[Lempo]

I believe someone used “skull f***” earlier today as well. Which is an awesome term.

I understand it comes from Old Norse, originally meaning offering someone an offending toast.

 

[DaveG]

Avon. Took the pics myself this morning. Driving on Hwy12 in town- it fills up like a bathtub everytime the dunes are breached on oceanview drive (which is coincidentally where the real Negan has a house) which is every stinking time the wind blows at over 30mph onshore for 3 or more high tide cycles. It won't let me upload my videos but I'll take another crack at it

Try putting the vids on YouTube first assuming you have an account there

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The lab leak thesis is viable. An accidental leak by definition would be non-conspiratorial (although I suppose a cover-up would be a conspiracy). From what I've read there's no definitive origin story right now...the prevalent theory is that it was born in nature...that being said there are past documented lab leaks in China of H1N1 and SARS and I would not rule it out here.

On the natural disaster front, I'm looking for aggregate statistics. For instance, here is a history of forest fires in the US measured by acres burned. This article says that in 2020 year to date, the US has ~6.9 million acres burned. Seems to be in the normal distribution.

My point on the judge appointment squabbles is that it's not something unique to 2020. The recent lack of principle/consistency/integrity on the appointment/hearing for the Supremes is disappointing, but I can't remember a time when political skulduggery was not occurring.

Yeah, it's best to look at the aggregate but I think we'll need to wait for 2020 to be over though. Anecdotal, but a friend of my wife who lives in California told her that he's never seen anything like this before. I don't know how many total acres have burned, but he said the number of large, out of control fires is "out of the norm" (as he put it). I did a quick google search and this story seems to back that up as it says six of the top 20 fires in California history are in 2020 (including 3 of the top 4).

Six of California's largest fires in history ignited this year. Here's what we know

I'm not saying this is or is not due to climate change / global warming though. Droughts, el nino, la nina, etc.. are things that have occurred regularly through time. I'm not a climate scientist nor have spent enough time investigating it.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Yeah, it's best to look at the aggregate but I think we'll need to wait for 2020 to be over though. Anecdotal, but a friend of my wife who lives in California told her that he's never seen anything like this before. I don't know how many total acres have burned, but he said the number of large, out of control fires is "out of the norm" (as he put it). I did a quick google search and this story seems to back that up as it says six of the top 20 fires in California history are in 2020 (including 3 of the top 4).

Six of California's largest fires in history ignited this year. Here's what we know

I'm not saying this is or is not due to climate change / global warming though. Droughts, el nino, la nina, etc.. are things that have occurred regularly through time. I'm not a climate scientist nor have spent enough time investigating it.

I have seen a lot of talk about how “forest management” has gone out the window because of environmentalists and the lack of controlled burns over the last decade(s). I have zero idea if this is true.
Anyone with any degree of expertise in the field?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I have seen a lot of talk about how “forest management” has gone out the window because of environmentalists and the lack of controlled burns over the last decade(s). I have zero idea if this is true.
Anyone with any degree of expertise in the field?

President Trump constantly talks about "forest management" so maybe that's where you are hearing it? It's obvious he's using that as a dig at the democratic governors in those states, even though the majority of the fires are on federal land managed by the dept. of the interior (although states and feds have to work in conjunction on the management of this land). I can't say though how true it is about lack of controlled burns/forest management playing a major role in it though (regardless who is responsible).

I never realized this until recently, but 57% of the forest land in California is federally owned and only 3% is state/local government owned, 40% is private/industrial owned.

 

[raynman]

Welp, gents, the OBX had its shit pushed in this week. Waves are bigger than I’ve ever seen them, 30-40 mph sustained Onshore winds have been hammering away for over 72 hours straight. About to lose my mind with the Constant whistling and shaking house. Hurricane offshore plus new moon tide= Half the town under 2 feet of ocean water and Hwy 12 cut in numerous places.
View attachment 368422 View attachment 368423 View attachment 368424

Do I see a Jeep hood? Do you live out there full time?

 

[SvechneJerk]

This NY Times article from a couple years ago explained it fairly well -
Opinion | To Help Prevent the Next Big Wildfire, Let the Forest Burn

Additonally, there have been quite a few arrests of people intentionally setting fires.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

President Trump constantly talks about "forest management" so maybe that's where you are hearing it? It's obvious he's using that as a dig at the democratic governors in those states, even though the majority of the fires are on federal land managed by the dept. of the interior (although states and feds have to work in conjunction on the management of this land). I can't say though how true it is about lack of controlled burns/forest management playing a major role in it though (regardless who is responsible).

I never realized this until recently, but 57% of the forest land in California is federally owned and only 3% is state/local government owned, 40% is private/industrial owned.

I remember him saying something about it months ago ... but no. I’m about the last person to hang on the (any) President’s words. Couldn’t tell you what channel Fox/CNN/MSNBC is on DirecTV.
I’m sure I’ve seen it on social media, however. I’m just wondering if it’s true or not. It *sounds* logical, ie. removing the kindling from underneath the forests.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I don't claim to know much about forest fires or the prevention thereof, but it seems like something the National Forestry Service might be involved in.

So cutting funding to that agency (and just about everything else related to the environment) seems like it might have a negative effect on...the environment.

 

[MinJaBen]

I remember him saying something about it months ago ... but no. I’m about the last person to hang on the (any) President’s words. Couldn’t tell you what channel Fox/CNN/MSNBC is on DirecTV.
I’m sure I’ve seen it on social media, however. I’m just wondering if it’s true or not. It *sounds* logical, ie. removing the kindling from underneath the forests.

Yes it does sound logical. Until you realize that California alone has 33 million acres of forest. Who is paying to do that removing? Republicans don't want to raise taxes to do it and Democrats don't want it done because of the effects on habitats.

The problem is climate effects; both in the effect on growth and the fires. California's winters are getting both warmer and wetter. This increase the amount of underbrush growth in the forests. Then in the summers and fall California is getting hotter and dryer. This increases the chances of wildfires with all the new growth now dried out on the forest floor. It is a problem from both ends.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I remember him saying something about it months ago ... but no. I’m about the last person to hang on the (any) President’s words. Couldn’t tell you what channel Fox/CNN/MSNBC is on DirecTV.
I’m sure I’ve seen it on social media, however. I’m just wondering if it’s true or not. It *sounds* logical, ie. removing the kindling from underneath the forests.

Yeah, he's said it multiple times and I've heard it more from him than I have elsewhere, but then again, I'm not very active on social media. Other than FB, mainly for communicating with family that I live far from, I don't use much social media. Have a twitter account but barely use it other than to check once an a while for Canes news. Don't have instagram, etc...

You don't have to "hang on a president's words" to still have him be the source of info though. Logically, when a president (of either party) says something a few times, it does spread via social media and mainstream media, so he can be the source of the info, or at least the genesis of it getting attention (much like the talk on hydroxychloroquine (sp?)). It's only natural.

Setting that aside, I do think that forest management can play a role in the magnitude and number of forest fires. Like you, I don't know enough to say why or how much it contributes though to the current situations. .

 

[DaveG]

President Trump constantly talks about "forest management" so maybe that's where you are hearing it? It's obvious he's using that as a dig at the democratic governors in those states, even though the majority of the fires are on federal land managed by the dept. of the interior (although states and feds have to work in conjunction on the management of this land). I can't say though how true it is about lack of controlled burns/forest management playing a major role in it though (regardless who is responsible).

I never realized this until recently, but 57% of the forest land in California is federally owned and only 3% is state/local government owned, 40% is private/industrial owned.

To be fair it's something that I've been hearing years before Trump came to office even dating back to before the Governator was in office there so there may be something to the concept that environmental regs preventing controlled burns and limiting clearing dead wood are exacerbating things. FWIW I've heard the same complaint from some of my Aussie friends about their situation.

Mind you i also went to the school with the top forestry program in the country at the time (they still may be the top one) and had a few friends active in the program that were also in the band with me.

 

[sabremike]

Pretty much what SlavinAway said.

And I’ll add to it, as far as the political realm goes, it’s definitely seemed to have gotten worse. I talked to my parents this weekend and they said it’s never been this bad. Like, politicians have always had a reputation for being shifty, lying, two-faced, etc, but in the past (in their words) “they did a better job of hiding it.”

The blatant lies and hypocrisy aren’t even being hidden anymore.

Lindsey Graham blocking Obama’s appointment in 2016:

“I want you to use my words against me. If there’s a Republican president in 2016 and a vacancy occurs in the last year of the first term, you can say 'Lindsey Graham said let’s let the next president, whoever it might be, make that nomination.'"

Lindsey Graham in 2018:

"If an opening comes in the last year of President Trump's term, and the primary process has started, we'll wait to the next election."

Lindsey Graham last week:

“I will support President Trump in any effort to move forward regarding the recent vacancy created by the passing of Justice Ginsburg.”

Now, it could be that it’s simply easier now to find instances of hypocritical statements due to the Internet keeping literally everything around forever, and I’m sure that definitely helps, but I also think many politicians have just stopped caring about how they come off, because they know they’re basically set for life, regardless of what they do or say.

I honestly think the fact that the fate of the country hangs on the swing vote of the Supreme Court and that this person has more power than King George III could have ever dreamed of is THE problem very few people even bother to notice much less fix. Term limits on judges instead of lifetime appointments might be a way of reducing the stakes which would be a very positive development.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I honestly think the fact that the fate of the country hangs on the swing vote of the Supreme Court and that this person has more power than King George III could have ever dreamed of is THE problem very few people even bother to notice much less fix. Term limits on judges instead of lifetime appointments might be a way of reducing the stakes which would be a very positive development.

It makes too much sense, which is why it'll never happen

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Yes it does sound logical. Until you realize that California alone has 33 million acres of forest. Who is paying to do that removing? Republicans don't want to raise taxes to do it and Democrats don't want it done because of the effects on habitats.

The problem is climate effects; both in the effect on growth and the fires. California's winters are getting both warmer and wetter. This increase the amount of underbrush growth in the forests. Then in the summers and fall California is getting hotter and dryer. This increases the chances of wildfires with all the new growth now dried out on the forest floor. It is a problem from both ends.

But we CAN agree this started in 2016.

 

[sabremike]

The lab leak thesis is viable. An accidental leak by definition would be non-conspiratorial (although I suppose a cover-up would be a conspiracy). From what I've read there's no definitive origin story right now...the prevalent theory is that it was born in nature...that being said there are past documented lab leaks in China of H1N1 and SARS and I would not rule it out here.

On the natural disaster front, I'm looking for aggregate statistics. For instance, here is a history of forest fires in the US measured by acres burned. This article says that in 2020 year to date, the US has ~6.9 million acres burned. Seems to be in the normal distribution.

My point on the judge appointment squabbles is that it's not something unique to 2020. The recent lack of principle/consistency/integrity on the appointment/hearing for the Supremes is disappointing, but I can't remember a time when political skulduggery was not occurring.