There are certainly several ways to look at possible draft options. For the long term betterment of the game, deferring this draft until next year (using the upcoming seasons results to dictate the draft order) and then going with 19 year olds thereafter is the logical approach in my opinion.
However, that said, if a draft this year must (or is chosen to) be held, then one has the obligation to look at the impacts of the player movement post new CBA and the resulting team capability. Will the recent powerhouses (i.e. most big market teams) still be that strong? Not likely. And one must ask themselves who gave up the most for this CBA? Looks like it is the big market teams who were profitable or close to it. Then one should look at who they have in their cupboard to help rebuild from within. What have they recently drafted (i.e. first rounders for example).
How can you justify that a team like Atlanta who has picked first overall once and second overall twice (in the last five years) plus an 8th, 10th, and 30th pick,
needs Crosby to prosper? I can't. Nor can I see Columbus with one first, 2 fourth overall, and 2 eighth overalls needing Crosby. These are the up and coming teams, if they play their cards right.
What about Detroit? "Hockeytown" has been perennial contenders, but post CBA, where will they be? They have not chosen a player in the first round in the last four years, and only had the 29th pick five years ago. Their cupboard isn't truly bear as they have a knack for getting good, if not great, players outside the first round, but all in all, if you isolate it to firsts, it is quite sparse.
If this whole negotiation was about team parity, a case can be made that Detroit should have the best odds of picking first. Even if they have a 1 in 5 chance of selecting Crosby, it's still unlikely that they get their ball picked first (and PS, thanks PecaFan for that fabulous calculator.. good job!!) But perhaps, if one looks at the "cupboard" situation (combined with their helping small market teams in this CBA negotiation), and not the recent results criteria, they as well as others like (gag...) Toronto, perhaps should get a better shot at Crosby.
Ironically, this would actually favour those teams that one might consider "broke" the game in the first place. But going back to the parity situation, using this logic might be for the best of the league in the long run.
And this is from a Flames fan, who is trying to look at the situation objectively.
Now, all of that aside, ultimately Crosby will become a Flame via the lottery and be mentored by Iggy!!!
<ducking and covering from the flack this will receive...>