Speculation: How much will Stone & Ceci cost as RFA's

How much will Stone + Ceci cost as RFA's?


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solidprospect

Borveetzky
Sep 30, 2017
4,422
1,274
Assuming they both re-sign and neither are moved. How much do you think it will cost to re-sign both of these players?

With a projected cap hit next year for the Sens @ $65,579,166 we might need to trade somebody to make the Sens fit under the cap next year. Depending on how much the cap goes up of course.

Will it be 9m, 10m, 11m, 12 m? I'll add a poll.
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
16,575
9,269
If we're talking about actual cash and not cap, both together, under 10 in year 1.

The Senators will do the same thing they've done with every player, kick the can down the road by signing them to a backloaded deal. If Stone signs for a 7.5M AAV, year 1 might be 6.5 or even a bit lower since it his last RFA year. Look at Hoffman's contract for an example of this structure, he makes 5.65M a season every year of his contract aside for the first year where he only makes 3.8M.

Ceci has a 3.3M qualifying offer. Regardless of how long he signs for, I'd expect something around 3.5M on the low end for the first year of his new deal. I think it's possible that they both combine for 9M-10M in salary in year 1 with their actual combined cap hits coming in at 11M-12M (7.5Mx7 years+4.25Mx4 years?)
 

Tundraman

ModerationIsKey
Feb 13, 2010
11,678
1,528
North
Not my preference but I have a feeling Ceci will be gone. Making $3.35M this year I can't see him accepting any less than $4M-$4.25M in year one of any deal on a rising scale. The Sens might try to fill their D spots with Chabot, another cheap UFA not named Oduya, Harpur, Englund, Phaneuf (barring a miracle trade), Boro, a re-signed Wideman, Claesson and Jaros (part time). Not so much for cap reasons but straight out paid out cash, as long as they have Phaneuf and want to re-sign Karlsson they can't afford another big (ish) contract on D.
 
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solidprospect

Borveetzky
Sep 30, 2017
4,422
1,274
I recall someone saying it would probably cost less than 10M next year, mostly because of the play of Ceci. If people agree on him being a good defenceman or not, he's second on the team in ice time and always playing against teams top 6 forwards.

The 2nd part I was wondering about is if we have to make a move before next season, aside from the fact that we probably should make a move before then too. I guess we won't know for sure until next years cap is decided.
 

Nac Mac Feegle

wee & free
Jun 10, 2011
34,829
9,252
I like Ceci, but if he wants more than 3.5, he needs to be moved.

Stone is tricky. He gets injured a fair bit, and when he returns it takes a long time for him to ramp up his game. Plus, he is a very strong candidate to drop off the map the minute he loses half a step. I love the kid, but 6x5 years would be my ideal offer.
 

Lenny the Lynx

Registered User
Sep 20, 2008
4,891
568
ON
I like Ceci, but if he wants more than 3.5, he needs to be moved.

Stone is tricky. He gets injured a fair bit, and when he returns it takes a long time for him to ramp up his game. Plus, he is a very strong candidate to drop off the map the minute he loses half a step. I love the kid, but 6x5 years would be my ideal offer.

No way thats happening - he's going to get probably 7.5
 

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
65,007
49,540
I like Ceci, but if he wants more than 3.5, he needs to be moved.

Stone is tricky. He gets injured a fair bit, and when he returns it takes a long time for him to ramp up his game. Plus, he is a very strong candidate to drop off the map the minute he loses half a step. I love the kid, but 6x5 years would be my ideal offer.

Ceci's salary is at 3.35 now... He gets over 4 imo probably closer to 4.5-5 .. If we are retooling .. I would shop him
I think Stone comes in at 6.5 AAV. I would lock him up for as long as I could at that.
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
16,575
9,269
Stone is tricky. I believe he only has a single RFA year left. He is arbitration eligible. Dorion and Stone apparently talked over an extension during the 2017 off season which lead to them agreeing to put things on hold. That tells me, they probably weren't all that close.

If Stone has a number in mind that he thinks he is worth that Ottawa isn't willing to meet, Stone could very easily opt to let it be known that he is willing to bet on himself and take a 1 year deal with Ottawa.

The counter to that would be "but wouldn't he want the safety of guaranteed money?" If that happens, it puts Ottawa on the spot because presumably if they go 1 year with Stone, his contract demands aren't going to lower in January 2018 when they'd be able to extend him. So the entire situation would create a scenario where the Senators have two options, come in closer to Stone's number and sign him long term, or trade Stone to a team willing to do that so they don't lose Stone for nothing within a year.

Do I think this is likely to happen? It doesn't usually happen so I wouldn't get too scared. But all I am trying to illustrate is because Stone is so close to unrestricted free agency, if both sides aren't close, it'll probably mean that Stone won't be a Senator in 2018-19.
 

Sun God Nika

Palestine <3.
Apr 22, 2013
19,861
8,246
Mark Stone just hit 40 in 40. first senator forward since Spezza 6 Years ago to do that.

I can see him going for 8MX6.
Pay cut Salary of 7X7
Team friendly deal 6.6X8

I would be fine getting Ceci for 4.2X5 give him a full NTC too, so he doesn't have to play with trade rumours.
 
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Langdon Alger

Registered User
Apr 19, 2006
24,777
12,912
Mark Stone just hit 40 in 40. first senator forward since Spezza 6 Years ago to do that.

I can see him going for 8MX6.
Pay cut Salary of 7X7
Team friendly deal 6.6X8

I would be fine getting Ceci for 4.2X5 give him a full NTC too, so he doesn't have to play with trade rumours.

Great, then we can’t move him if he struggles. Don’t paint yourself into a corner like that. That’s the type of thing we will blast Dorion for in a few years from now if things don’t work out. Full NTC should only be for star players. Let him have a modified NTC where he can submit a ten team list.
 
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Karl Prime

Registered User
Feb 13, 2017
4,582
4,310
the fact that we’re a -27 team and stone is a +11 is beyond me. keep this guy

Well, we can try to figure it out. They have 21 PPG and 28 PPGA, so -7 in special teams. That means they are -16 at even strength (-27 GD is really -23 - 5 SO losses, 1 win). Stone has 32 even strength points, and he's by far the team's best player this season, so it's not too surprising.

Frankly it's more amazing that he only has 4 PIMs halfway through the season.
 

The Lewler

GOAT BUDGET AINEC
Jul 2, 2013
4,675
2,815
Eastern Ontario Badlands
The numbers will be too high for the hive mind.

Mark Stone is the best FWD on the team.

It doesn't matter that Bobby Ryan's contract is bushleague, as long as he is here, Stone can point to that deal and say.. yeah I'm better than that guy.

I actually think he goes 7.5 million+ per year.

Ceci is definitely 4.5 million + AAV.
 

Lenny the Lynx

Registered User
Sep 20, 2008
4,891
568
ON
The numbers will be too high for the hive mind.

Mark Stone is the best FWD on the team.

It doesn't matter that Bobby Ryan's contract is bushleague, as long as he is here, Stone can point to that deal and say.. yeah I'm better than that guy.

I actually think he goes 7.5 million+ per year.

Ceci is definitely 4.5 million + AAV.
I think it’s less about the Ryan contract, more about comparables on other teams.

He’s definitely our best forward and this year his production has stepped up, point a game right now. I’d say 7 is the floor but it likely will be in the 7.5 range
 

DanyHeatley

Registered User
Dec 6, 2016
1,358
787
Well, we can try to figure it out. They have 21 PPG and 28 PPGA, so -7 in special teams. That means they are -16 at even strength (-27 GD is really -23 - 5 SO losses, 1 win). Stone has 32 even strength points, and he's by far the team's best player this season, so it's not too surprising.

Frankly it's more amazing that he only has 4 PIMs halfway through the season.
thanks for this. it is now not beyond me that stone is a +11 on a -27 team, and actually more quite impressed that he only has 4PIMs :nod:
 

Karl Prime

Registered User
Feb 13, 2017
4,582
4,310
thanks for this. it is now not beyond me that stone is a +11 on a -27 team, and actually more quite impressed that he only has 4PIMs :nod:

I should correct myself actually. 110 GF and 133 GA, takeaway the special teams and that's 89 and 105, but takeaway the SO counted goals and it's 88 GF and 100 GA, so they're only -12 at ES.
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
15,991
9,555
I like Ceci, but if he wants more than 3.5, he needs to be moved.

Stone is tricky. He gets injured a fair bit, and when he returns it takes a long time for him to ramp up his game. Plus, he is a very strong candidate to drop off the map the minute he loses half a step. I love the kid, but 6x5 years would be my ideal offer.

I think Ceci gets more than that UT that's just me

Stone I agree with. I think if he has any little thing nagging him that impacts his skating he goes from a top 3 player to being very ineffective. That's a huge concern to me.

I can't imagine the shit storm in here if Stone gets moved. The cheap cat calls will hit a feverish pitch
 

Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk

Effortless sexy.
Jul 13, 2006
12,719
1,049
Cumberland
Was hoping for 6.0 - 6.5 for Stone but that might be on the low side, considering Duchene will want 7 mil plus.
7.5 for Stone, maybe 8.0 and then 3.5-4.0 for Ceci. So around 10 million for both.
 

Arkantoss

Registered User
Mar 2, 2016
235
99
I have this weird feeling that on July 1st the team will announce deals for Stone (7.5m/8), Duchene (6.5m/8) and Karlsson (9.5mil/8) out of nowhere.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,708
9,651
Montreal, Canada
I'd think 11.5 is about where it will be

This. Voted 12, could have been 11 but I played safe.

Ceci has a 3.3M qualifying offer. Regardless of how long he signs for, I'd expect something around 3.5M on the low end for the first year of his new deal. I think it's possible that they both combine for 9M-10M in salary in year 1 with their actual combined cap hits coming in at 11M-12M (7.5Mx7 years+4.25Mx4 years?)

So you changed your mind on this? ;)

I was saying something along 4.25 to 4.5 x 5 years for Ceci but you quoted me a few times saying it would be over 5.0 per
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
16,575
9,269
This. Voted 12, could have been 11 but I played safe.



So you changed your mind on this? ;)

I was saying something along 4.25 to 4.5 x 5 years for Ceci but you quoted me a few times saying it would be over 5.0 per

That itched enough for me to dig up that post, just to see how inconsistent I am. ;)

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/138028691/

You suggested 6 years 4.2M for Ceci, in the previous thread I said at 6 years, that's too low.

In my post in this thread, I suggested 4 years 4.25M, in my previous post 4 years 4.5M, so at that point, pretty consistent.

For anybody wanting to see comparable contracts for Ceci, that post is a good read. Not because I am smarter than anybody or because I wrote it, but because I dug up some comparable contracts for Ceci and all the info is in one place. Even if people don't agree with my conclusion, the info is useful.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,708
9,651
Montreal, Canada
That itched enough for me to dig up that post, just to see how inconsistent I am. ;)

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/138028691/

You suggested 6 years 4.2M for Ceci, in the previous thread I said at 6 years, that's too low.

In my post in this thread, I suggested 4 years 4.25M, in my previous post 4 years 4.5M, so at that point, pretty consistent.

For anybody wanting to see comparable contracts for Ceci, that post is a good read. Not because I am smarter than anybody or because I wrote it, but because I dug up some comparable contracts for Ceci and all the info is in one place. Even if people don't agree with my conclusion, the info is useful.

Ok but in that post you said "So, on a 6 year deal, I think you're off by about 1M"... so that means you thought that Ceci would be worth 5.2 on a 6 years deal. Do you still think that?

In a reply to your post, I recognized that I had 1 too many years so I concluded by saying : "I think Ceci on a 5 years would be around 4.5."
 
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