How much to extend D-Cat and Strome?

[LordKOTL]

To be fair, I would think as the CAP grows on a year to year basis you have to in parallel increase offers to your most coveted UFA's/RFA's. Toews/Kaner money is no longer top end money for the most coveted FA's.

Exactly. That's where cap% (1st year of the contract) comes into play. Cap inflation is a thing, but the other factor is how much of the cap a player is taking up. Thankfully the cap has never gone appreciably down (except in 2013 and was prorated) so in general, the biggest hit against the cap will be a player's 1st year.

In my previous post I mentioned Saad as an RFA comparable "starting point" to El Gato: 6M. That was 8.22% of the cap. I think it's safe to say Debrincat will command about the same or more. So applying a simple trendline to the cap since it's 2006 inception for extrapolating future cap, approx 7M for Debrincat is a good bet being approx 8.22% of the cap and assuming about 85.8M of cap in 2021

For comparison, Kane's cap hit % of 15.22% would be 13M under an 85.8M cap--vs. his 10.5. To loop back to my last post about Khabibulin's cap% being criminal: at 17.31% that would be nearly 15M! A far cry from the 6.5M he made back then...but the cap was only 39M.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

The blame shouldn't fall on those who know something to lay out the facts in simple terms for everyone to understand(though this is a nice courtesy that people will do). The blame should fall on those who choose not to do anything when it comes to learning about something, IMO, and then expect everyone else to go do it for them, then also explain it in simpler terms. (To be clear, I'm not talking about you here, but people in general.) How is it remotely fair for me to do go do the work and research, and then dumb it down and explain it to someone? How about that person just goes and does the research for him or herself?

I guess. I don’t know why you wouldn’t want to cal out false information and explain the correct information when you have a deep knowledge, but to each their own.

I agree you don’t have to explain things if you don’t want, but this is a community and I think we fairly exhange our knowledge on different topics. Some people know more about certain things than others, and I think it makes sense to help others out.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I guess. I don’t know why you wouldn’t want to cal out false information and explain the correct information when you have a deep knowledge, but to each their own.

I agree you don’t have to explain things if you don’t want, but this is a community and I think we fairly exhange our knowledge on different topics. Some people know more about certain things than others, and I think it makes sense to help others out.

I don't disagree. I'm not speaking in terms of you, or really anyone here on HF Hawks. I'm speaking more in terms of the general population of the world. Everyone wants someone else to do the work for them all the time, and no one wants to do it for themselves and learn something.

If I have knowledge about something, I'm the type of person who will generally share it, and if someone doesn't want to believe me, then fine. I still try. Lots of people don't, and I completely understand why they're hesitant to.

 

[AmericanDream]

Players showing big improvement is the norm. Most don’t improve very much at all. Hundreds of examples? Not really. For every Taveres you have 15 Drew Leblancs. Might be better to agree to disagree here.

over the past 10 to 15 years, sure there have been hundreds of players who have improved their skating. you work on skating all through your life, you work on it in junior/college, in the AHL then the NHL- literally every step of the way it gets worked on, some go the extra step which are typically the players that see the biggest gains. the new technology, training and fitness philosophies are all helping this. Drew LeBlanc? I loved the guy, but it was clear there was more to just skating which held him back. Look at players like Perry, Thornton, Marleau, Brown, etc etc - all players that were never good skaters but carved out amazing careers, if you are skilled enough, have the instincts/high enough IQ you can over come poor skating...and even those guys have improved throughout their career to some degree in their skating.

I never said it was common that every player would make drastic leaps but the reason why the game is the fastest it has ever been is because this is an area you can work on and improve - not all these players are coming out of juniors flying out there, it still takes tons of effort, time, and practice to get to these speeds and accelerations..and to be frank not every player puts in that same effort, some more than others. Shit, high end kids 10-12 years old have personal speed and strength coaches already - seen them at the rinks - it is nuts. I am more than fine with agreeing to disagree here, I have seen enough players that have improved their skating over their careers and seen my own improvements in skating to know that it can be done to certain degrees and with certain levels of help.

 

[BK]

over the past 10 to 15 years, sure there have been hundreds of players who have improved their skating. you work on skating all through your life, you work on it in junior/college, in the AHL then the NHL- literally every step of the way it gets worked on, some go the extra step which are typically the players that see the biggest gains. the new technology, training and fitness philosophies are all helping this. Drew LeBlanc? I loved the guy, but it was clear there was more to just skating which held him back. Look at players like Perry, Thornton, Marleau, Brown, etc etc - all players that were never good skaters but carved out amazing careers, if you are skilled enough, have the instincts/high enough IQ you can over come poor skating...and even those guys have improved throughout their career to some degree in their skating.

I never said it was common that every player would make drastic leaps but the reason why the game is the fastest it has ever been is because this is an area you can work on and improve - not all these players are coming out of juniors flying out there, it still takes tons of effort, time, and practice to get to these speeds and accelerations..and to be frank not every player puts in that same effort, some more than others. ****, high end kids 10-12 years old have personal speed and strength coaches already - seen them at the rinks - it is nuts. I am more than fine with agreeing to disagree here, I have seen enough players that have improved their skating over their careers and seen my own improvements in skating to know that it can be done to certain degrees and with certain levels of help.

A few hundred over 15 years is not that many...

You mention the famous few...few.

Marleau can really skate btw. He is a high end skater to be completely honest so I think you are really wrong about him. Just one scouting report.

Thornton has elite vision and IQ but is an average skater. Perry was a junkyard dog type that knew where is skills needed to go.

I am sorry but if you can't skate well by the time you make it to the NHL the chances of you improving that skating to be good enough to compete is slim at best.

Leblanc was 100% limited by his skating (plus a nasty compound fracture of his leg in college). He had really good IQ and hands but could not keep up.

You are not wrong about the fitness changes but hockey is a wealthy enough sport to where if you are playing at a high end at a younger age it is available to you. It just comes with the cost to be honest.

 

[BK]

We’ll have to disagree on this subject. The players on the Hawks that don’t think the game well won’t be in the league much longer. It happens all the time, just look at many rosters 5 years ago and think, who are these people?

You can disagree on his hockey IQ but you would be wrong. It is listed in most scouting reports on him.

 

[AmericanDream]

A few hundred over 15 years is not that many...

You mention the famous few...few.

Marleau can really skate btw. He is a high end skater to be completely honest so I think you are really wrong about him. Just one scouting report.

Thornton has elite vision and IQ but is an average skater. Perry was a junkyard dog type that knew where is skills needed to go.

I am sorry but if you can't skate well by the time you make it to the NHL the chances of you improving that skating to be good enough to compete is slim at best.

Leblanc was 100% limited by his skating (plus a nasty compound fracture of his leg in college). He had really good IQ and hands but could not keep up.

You are not wrong about the fitness changes but hockey is a wealthy enough sport to where if you are playing at a high end at a younger age it is available to you. It just comes with the cost to be honest.

there is a difference between not skating well to begin with and being able to improve your skating. you guys are saying skating cannot be improved on or is the hardest thing to improve, I disagreed and said it is one of the skills that can be improved. if you said the likelihood of a player going from a really bad skater to a good skater is slim to none, then yes I agree - but what I took your posts as is that it is near impossible to go from an average skater to above average skater which I have seen many many times before as happening.

as long as muscles drive the action/skill it can typically be worked on and improved, it is why speed skaters can better their times with constant training and advancements in training/technology...same with runners - world records are broken each and every year in these respective areas.

it's all good anyway, good discussion but let's get back to Stromer lol..

 

[Pez68]

I never said it was the norm, those that reach out and put in the time and effort can improve their skating, hundreds of examples of it for NHL players. Top speed is something that really can't be changed, but edge work, balance, quickness, stride, acceleration are all things that can be improved with skating coaches and working on/developing different specific muscles in weight training.

Improvement is possible, sure. But some people just don't have the natural athletic ability to be great skaters.... A lot of this is developed when you are very young. The limit to what you can teach the body/brain when it comes to athletics is different for every player.

 

[ChiHawks10]

there is a difference between not skating well to begin with and being able to improve your skating. you guys are saying skating cannot be improved on or is the hardest thing to improve, I disagreed and said it is one of the skills that can be improved. if you said the likelihood of a player going from a really bad skater to a good skater is slim to none, then yes I agree - but what I took your posts as is that it is near impossible to go from an average skater to above average skater which I have seen many many times before as happening.

as long as muscles drive the action/skill it can typically be worked on and improved, it is why speed skaters can better their times with constant training and advancements in training/technology...same with runners - world records are broken each and every year in these respective areas.

it's all good anyway, good discussion but let's get back to Stromer lol..

Only thing I think people are saying is that it's hard to improve skating in comparison to other aspects of personal skills. You can learn to pass better, can learn to shoot better, can learn to play better positioning, and stickhandle better, all fairly easily. It's just about repetition with those things. Stickhandle a golf ball or tennis ball all day, and you'll get quicker/better hands. Repeat drills with positioning, and you'll get better with your positioning. So on and so forth. Whereas with skating, some people just aren't as athletically gifted, so it's harder to improve that aspect of the game... which would be entirely accurate.

I knew kids growing up who played house league their whole lives as opposed to travel... because they could never get better at skating. Their skating was always awkward and clumsy, no matter how much they skated/practiced. Whereas some people it comes naturally to them. I was playing travel hockey after a year of learn to skate, and a single season of mites, simply because I was a stronger skater than the majority of those my age/experience level.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I don't think skating is the hardest to improve, but it isn't easy to. It takes a lot of hard work. It's much more difficult to improve your stick skills. You can't practice it to death and become Patrick Kane. Like most skills in hockey you are either born with it or not. You can get better at a lot of the skills, but you aren't suddenly going to skate like McDavid, stick handle like Kane, or have the vision of Crosby.

If you are a below average skater, you can certainly become slightly above average. Like a Scheifele, or Tavares. Plus more examples league wide. Some kids just never get the coaching, or have the drive to improve it and relied on other aspects of their game to get them as far as they went.

 

[AmericanDream]

Only thing I think people are saying is that it's hard to improve skating in comparison to other aspects of personal skills. You can learn to pass better, can learn to shoot better, can learn to play better positioning, and stickhandle better, all fairly easily. It's just about repetition with those things. Stickhandle a golf ball or tennis ball all day, and you'll get quicker/better hands. Repeat drills with positioning, and you'll get better with your positioning. So on and so forth. Whereas with skating, some people just aren't as athletically gifted, so it's harder to improve that aspect of the game... which would be entirely accurate.

I knew kids growing up who played house league their whole lives as opposed to travel... because they could never get better at skating. Their skating was always awkward and clumsy, no matter how much they skated/practiced. Whereas some people it comes naturally to them. I was playing travel hockey after a year of learn to skate, and a single season of mites, simply because I was a stronger skater than the majority of those my age/experience level.

sure and that isn't what I am talking about. players that are inherently awkward in stride or body frame that are "sluggish" in skating are typically players that will never be good, I am just talking about players that can skate at an average to slightly below average level that can see improvements IF they put in the time and effort- these are players that are slow first step, bad edge work, etc...these areas can be improved on, what you are saying is not what I am saying.

I will use this not apples to apples.

when I was pitching back in middle school/high school I was typically one of the hardest throwers. by my senior year of high school I was throwing consistent 87-89 mph - by the time I finished in the minors I was consistent 92-93 with 4-seam and 90-91 cutter/2 -seam fastball. Back then even in the minors that was still one of the higher velocities typically. the majority of lefties were throwing mid 80's and any lefty coming close to 90 was fast tracked up through the system. but my arm was "God given" which is what most of us players thought back then - we didn't have to work a ton on it to throw hard, it came naturally...but now fast forward to today and 92-93 might not even get you a sniff of MLB attention - seems everyone is throwing mid 90's plus - and why is that?? what was once thought "God given" is now something that can be built up, taught/trained to be enhanced. I see skating as the same thing in a sense, you need to have a strong arm to begin with but you can seriously improve velocity if you work on it which everyone is doing in today's game. I came across one player in my entire career in baseball that I saw who didn't have a strong arm in high school but built it up to be a MLB pitcher. His name was Bobby Madritsch - Seattle Mariners - he was older than me but we did play against each other for a few years and went to same high school and he "morphed" his arm from a 70 mph pitcher to a mid 90's pitcher in a span of 4-5 years...craziest thing I ever saw.

okay I am done lol...

 

[clydesdale line]

Powers must be reading this board.

What might Alex DeBrincat's next contract look like for the...

 

[BK]

Debrincat on Pasta’s deal is fine by me.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Powers must be reading this board.

What might Alex DeBrincat's next contract look like for the...

Even if not, we would have had that article out on our site a week ago.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Debrincat on Pasta’s deal is fine by me.

By percentage, 7.37M cap hit on an 83M cap. No way he gets less IMO and if does, it robbery by Bowman.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

The taxes thing is way overstated. Every place has different perks, there’s no way you could average that out.

How much more money does Mitch Marner make playing in Toronto versus Dallas in endorsements? Marner is also living in a Canadian city getting paid in US dollars. If Oil tanks again should we adjust players on Canadian teams because they’re pay checks suddenly buy more in the city they work in?

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

By percentage, 7.37M cap hit on an 83M cap. No way he gets less IMO and if does, it robbery by Bowman.

I said 7x7. 7.37x7 and he’s locked up first chance we can.

 

[ColdSteel2]

I said 7x7. 7.37x7 and he’s locked up first chance we can.

Yeah, I was saying the same a couple weeks ago. Cat could possibly sign for that this offseason. At the same time, I could easily see him blossoming into a 10M player next year, hence why we would offer it in the first place. It all depends on him.

 

[Geoist]

And the pen Marner and his agent are going to point to the Kane and Toews situation. In a way the Leafs are kind of screwed. You may not agree with it, but that’s the reality.

You may be right, but if I were Toronto I'd laugh at the comparison. Marner and Matthews haven't won jack. Meanwhile, Kane and Toews won three cups when they got their deals. Gotta take results into account at some point.

 

[vshun]

Guentzel should be a decent comparable to Cat, though Guentzel is proven playoff scorer and we do not know if Cat would be able to elevate his game same way should Hawks manage to get into playoffs. Cat should be costing less than Braden Point and Larkin both of which should be the ceiling point for negotiations.
I am not yet on Strome train, I saw Panik score here first few games then being awarded large money and disappear. I would wait 1.5 years till negotiating with him. Hope Bowman is gone and we have more decent negotiator as GM but I have been hoping for it in vain since Bickell/Bollig pair of contracts were handed out.

 

[piteus]

I said 7x7. 7.37x7 and he’s locked up first chance we can.

A couple years ago, Johnny Gaudreau signed a 6 year deal for $40.5mn. It was for $6.75mn per. And NO NMC until a partial no trade clause in his last year.

7x7 sounds fair. It will also give Cat a chance for another huge pay day at 28.

 

[TheSting]

Guentzel should be a decent comparable to Cat, though Guentzel is proven playoff scorer and we do not know if Cat would be able to elevate his game same way should Hawks manage to get into playoffs. Cat should be costing less than Braden Point and Larkin both of which should be the ceiling point for negotiations.
I am not yet on Strome train, I saw Panik score here first few games then being awarded large money and disappear. I would wait 1.5 years till negotiating with him. Hope Bowman is gone and we have more decent negotiator as GM but I have been hoping for it in vain since Bickell/Bollig pair of contracts were handed out.

Well said. I'd like to see if Cat can raise his game in the playoffs when the games get far more physical as the refs tend to keep their whistles in their pockets.

 

[migi]

I don’t think Cat should get more than Guentzel honestly. Probably will though.

 

[piteus]

I don’t think Cat should get more than Guentzel honestly. Probably will though.

Cat is younger with more upside. If Cat signs for 7 years, we're probably going to pay a premium for the longer lock up. I understand the playoffs argument ... but I don't think it will matter in this case.

IMO, Cat will get anywhere from $6-$7mn per dependent on the length of the contract.

 

[Jay haller]

7x8 for Cat. 6-7 x 6 for strome

Margin of error: 1 mill