How much stock do you put in Mantha’s 18-19 season finish?

[Pavels Dog]

I need a break out season.

Otherwise, he's top on my trade list.

Trade him and watch him score 40+ goals..

Imagine him next to McDavid? If he is "only" a 60 point player together with Nielsen, Athanasiou, Bertuzzi and Larkin on a team that's bottom of the barrel on the PP, that's pretty good.

 

[Oddbob]

I put no stock at all in end of the season finishes on bottom tier teams. First, they have no pressure to do well, which makes it easier to perform well, secondly top end teams have a great tendency to overlook the low end teams, especially in the last 10-20 games of the season. There are lots of examples from every team of players getting red hot at the end of the season with nothing on the line and then returning to normal form the next season. I live in a Leaf house for many years now, and when they were in the bottom end of the league a while back, they had a fair number of guys get red hot at the end, and then Leafs fans were getting all excited about it. Most of that never materialized and in some cases, those hot players never even made it as regulars in the league.

Tatar did the same thing in his contract year, scoring like 10 or 11 of his 20 or so goals in the final stretch, when we were long out of playoff spot, so where was he the rest of that year? Mantha gets a little more flack cause he was hurt and maybe he was finally getting going, but he is not a 15 in 8 kind of player. Same way that we are not the 7-3 team we were in the final 10 games of the season.

 

[Oddbob]

It's pretty funny that's you're so high on a guy that scored 13 pts in an entire AHL season in Givani, and so down on a guy who scored 15 pts in his last 8 NHL games, lol.

Who the heck is high on Givani Smith? I feel like there is a 85%+ chance he never even plays 10 NHL games without massive injuries to a team. He seems like he is worse than his brother, who is a fill in guy at best right now.

 

[turkleton85]

i dont put too much stock in it, but i'm encouraged by it. Like others have said, it was at the end of the season, no pressure situation, maybe questionable effort by the other teams. But one of the biggest "improvements" was (more of the coaches than mantha himself) that the coaching staff finally lets him rip shots and one timers from the dots on the powerplay. This might be the tool he needs to constantly get goals or at least good chances, and keep his confidence up, which most of the time leads to him being more aggressive and more of a threat. He might be more consistent with this usage, and the chemistry between him, bert and larkin was very very nice to see. if he stays injury free a 60 point season would be a very nice, succesful campaign

 

[Gniwder]

Who the heck is high on Givani Smith?

Uhmm, the guy I was responding to? Read the draft bust thread.

I absolutely hated that pick the moment it was made.

 

[Flowah]

He's streaky like a lot of players. He had cold stretches. He had a hot stretch. It all evened out. He's about what he's going to be. Maybe room for a little improvement with a better team and a bit more experience but he's seen the league now for a few years. He is what he is.

 

[Hen Kolland]

He's streaky like a lot of players. He had cold stretches. He had a hot stretch. It all evened out. He's about what he's going to be. Maybe room for a little improvement with a better team and a bit more experience but he's seen the league now for a few years. He is what he is.

So what's the cutoff for when people "are what they are"? He's been a full time NHLer for 3 years, and lost time in 2 of them. Jakub Voracek played 5 seasons in the NHL before he broke 60 points for the first time. Blake Wheeler took 4-5 years before breaking out, and turned it up even more after year 9. Corey Perry didn't hit his peak until 5 years into his career. Todd Bertuzzi played 6 years in the NHL before having his first break out year.

That's just cherry picking a few names obviously. Hell even Larkin went from being a budding offensive player on the wing, to a struggling offensive center, to a solid 2C getting his footing, to one of the legitimate top young centers in hockey in his 4th full year. Each year there were marked improvement in his game. Feels unfair to say that Mantha "is what he is" given his tools. His potential is still extremely high, we just need to see it cashed in soon.

 

[Winger98]

So what's the cutoff for when people "are what they are"? He's been a full time NHLer for 3 years, and lost time in 2 of them. Jakub Voracek played 5 seasons in the NHL before he broke 60 points for the first time. Blake Wheeler took 4-5 years before breaking out, and turned it up even more after year 9. Corey Perry didn't hit his peak until 5 years into his career. Todd Bertuzzi played 6 years in the NHL before having his first break out year.

That's just cherry picking a few names obviously. Hell even Larkin went from being a budding offensive player on the wing, to a struggling offensive center, to a solid 2C getting his footing, to one of the legitimate top young centers in hockey in his 4th full year. Each year there were marked improvement in his game. Feels unfair to say that Mantha "is what he is" given his tools. His potential is still extremely high, we just need to see it cashed in soon.

Voracek was also an NHLer at age 19.Perry at 20. Bertuzzi was 20. Larkin at 19. These were guys who showed the ability to step in and be NHLers at a much earlier age than Mantha. Wheeler is more comparable, but Wheeler's breakout aligned with getting far more minutes in Winny than he did in Boston.

I'm not saying Mantha couldn't break out, but the fact he came into the league later, is already getting a decent amount of minutes the past couple of years, I'm not sure the same likelihood is there. That said, he keeps going out and putting up 25-30 goals and ~50 points, that's a pretty darn good player. I wouldn't really complain about it, and wouldn't mind seeing that locked up for 5+ years.

 

[Flowah]

So what's the cutoff for when people "are what they are"?
That's just cherry picking a few names obviously. Hell even Larkin went from being a budding offensive player on the wing, to a struggling offensive center, to a solid 2C getting his footing, to one of the legitimate top young centers in hockey in his 4th full year.

Well Larkin came in younger than Mantha. He's almost 2 years younger *and* played a full season before Mantha did. Wheeler came in pretty young as well. And as you acknowledge, cherry picked names.

There are a number of factors I consider. A player who comes in at 18-19 has more time to figure things out *and* they are still developing physically and mentally. ~25ish is a general cutoff point for age in other contexts, like say renting cars. You're still doing a considerable amount of mental development until then and obviously a large part of hockey is mental given its speed and fluidity. But by 25 you're likely at the limits of your development on both fronts. And if you've spent 3 or more years in the league, you've gotten plenty of experience. He's played over 200+ NHL games and a bunch of AHL games. I don't think it's a lack of experience holding him back from his true potential.

Mantha is pretty much 25 now. If he were 22 I wouldn't be saying this. Could he be a late bloomer? I guess he could but I have no reason to expect him to buck the trend. Nothing he's shown me tells me he's going to buck the trend. And even beyond you can look at how rarely a player of his size, at his draft position, puts up 70-80+ points a season. He'd have to defy a lot of odds and given his age, that he's far from a rookie, that he's a forward who tend to develop/peak sooner than d-men/goalies, I just don't expect it to happen.

I think his realistic peak is 75. That's on a good team, playing top line, #1 PP unit, in a career year. That's a damn good player. I think on this team what he's done so far, a 54 point pace over 82 games, is pretty good. Probably on average hits 60-65 on a better team.

I'd love to be wrong. I guess I'll turn it around and ask you why you think it isn't what he is? What makes you think he'll improve significantly over what he's shown us? Besides the few outliers around the league who've done it before.

 

[HisNoodliness]

A lot of big powerforwards can take a little longer to hit their potential and I think it's reasonable to say that Mantha maybe has a little more to offer than what we've seen. I think that he's been misused both in his role as a net-front finisher and with too frequent demotions. When he gets top opportunities he has had some amazing stretches.

He's also been inconsistent and that's why he gets demoted and used in imperfect spots. More than IT I think he's deserved more opportunity as a shooting option instead of net-front. So under the perfect circumstances I think we'd have already seen a bit more production out of Mantha and we can expect him to produce a little more now that he's settling into a better role. I'd say we should expect him to be a high 20s low 30s goal scorer, 60s for points for the next ~5 years and then we'll see how he ages. He's great player and a part of our core, but also not a star and game-breaker.

So the answer to the OP is that I put as much stock into his hot streak at the end as his cold before that and we should expect more of both going forward. If you're expecting him to be hot a little more often and a little warmer even when he's not, that's a good hope. If you're expecting him to be hot streak Mantha all the time, you're probably going to be disappointed.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Well Larkin came in younger than Mantha. He's almost 2 years younger *and* played a full season before Mantha did. Wheeler came in pretty young as well. And as you acknowledge, cherry picked names.

There are a number of factors I consider. A player who comes in at 18-19 has more time to figure things out *and* they are still developing physically and mentally. ~25ish is a general cutoff point for age in other contexts, like say renting cars. You're still doing a considerable amount of mental development until then and obviously a large part of hockey is mental given its speed and fluidity. But by 25 you're likely at the limits of your development on both fronts. And if you've spent 3 or more years in the league, you've gotten plenty of experience. He's played over 200+ NHL games and a bunch of AHL games. I don't think it's a lack of experience holding him back from his true potential.

Mantha is pretty much 25 now. If he were 22 I wouldn't be saying this. Could he be a late bloomer? I guess he could but I have no reason to expect him to buck the trend. Nothing he's shown me tells me he's going to buck the trend. And even beyond you can look at how rarely a player of his size, at his draft position, puts up 70-80+ points a season. He'd have to defy a lot of odds and given his age, that he's far from a rookie, that he's a forward who tend to develop/peak sooner than d-men/goalies, I just don't expect it to happen.

I think his realistic peak is 75. That's on a good team, playing top line, #1 PP unit, in a career year. That's a damn good player. I think on this team what he's done so far, a 54 point pace over 82 games, is pretty good. Probably on average hits 60-65 on a better team.

I'd love to be wrong. I guess I'll turn it around and ask you why you think it isn't what he is? What makes you think he'll improve significantly over what he's shown us? Besides the few outliers around the league who've done it before.

The players that were named were cherry picked for a reason because almost all of them are larger in stature falling under the power forward mold (with the exception being Voracek who isn't super physical). We're talking about players who needed the time and experience to learn at the NHL level and to grow into their body. Whether they broke in at 18-19 or 22 does factor into the points I'm making at all, because even if they did need more time due to age, it still took them more time to establish themselves than Mantha has under his belt at this stage. Many of them were not turning the corner until they hit the 25-26 range, the same range that Mantha is about to enter.

You saying his peak is 75 doesn't sound like he is what he is to me. I assumed that to mean he will flirt around the same production level as he has been with limited room for growth. Peaking at 75 with his style of play makes him probably a 35-40 goal scorer, and that's most certainly not in the same ballpark as where he is right now. Alex DeBrincat scored 41 and had 76 points this year, that puts him in the top 12 of all wingers, and just outside the top 30 of all skaters as they are identified on hockey-reference.com. I think that realistically could be his peak too, so I don't think I can really elaborate on why I think there's more there, because my entire thought process was that you may be underselling what his ceiling is.

 

[Flowah]

You saying his peak is 75 doesn't sound like he is what he is to me.

It was conditional on many things. And I called it a career year. One he will not exceed or match in his career. It happens.

But that's not saying he's a 75 point player. That's saying that's his realistic best year if everything goes right. More likely he's ~60-65 a year.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

It was conditional on many things. And I called it a career year. One he will not exceed or match in his career. It happens.

But that's not saying he's a 75 point player. That's saying that's his realistic best year if everything goes right. More likely he's ~60-65 a year.

I get why you got there but let me just throw you this hypothetical. This is a bad year, we are carried by one line and AA scoring by himself but it is as we fear, the D isn't quite ready, the bottom of our lineup is getting worked routinely, maybe Howard also gets hurt for a chunk, but the four young guys up front and some of the younger rookies/sub 100 game guys are all okay. Still a bottom five finish. After dropping for the first couple years, finally lady luck looks at the Winged Wheel and says come on board. While I spend every hour from the April lottery to the draft pleading for Byfield alas the Wings select Alexis Lafreniere who I do like a lot, in a Andrei Svechnikov kind of way just to be clear. But they get him.

Well I am not going to be happy with that as a career year if he is playing a regular shift with Lafreniere and Larkin. What if Krug signs and becomes our #1 PP point guy or Hronek does the passing Trouba conversation half the board had. It means more often than not when Mantha steps on the ice he actually is surrounded by elite talent, the kind of guys that can use his talent and make better plays. He is an underrated passer, he uses his teammates quite well. I think he is a point per game guy perhaps in that scenario.

I guess that is kind of a semantics debate and it is a part of what makes this argument tough. But while I get he is 25 Mantha's skill set is really tough to stop it is why his hot stretches look the way they do. If we get enough talent he winds up the third option on a line, well my lord we should be getting extremely excited about that in my opinion. I don't think 80 or 90 points is out of the question at that point. Now I realize that requires other things, but I also think limiting him to a lower scenario when we don't know that over the next five years isn't quite the picture on his ceiling either. When we complain about elite attributes on this team it is great that AA and Mantha have some of them and that they can impose them on other teams and we have seen them do it to good and bad teams alike. Now it is driving the consistency, a tough part, but something we have seen strides out of both guys on. Something that will likely be very important in Yzerman's evaluation until the deadline on each guy.

 

[MBH]

Who the heck is high on Givani Smith? I feel like there is a 85%+ chance he never even plays 10 NHL games without massive injuries to a team. He seems like he is worse than his brother, who is a fill in guy at best right now.

I am, to some degree. Don't think he'll ever be a big-name guy. But a guy who's big, hits and fights, and has more talent than a typical goon, isn't a bad depth guy to have around.