Value of: How much is Drew Doughty worth?

[Kamiccolo]

Doughty is far from an elite dman anymore. He actually looks quite bad most nights and I dont know if he's trying to do too much now because the team sucks or he just seems more untethered out that and lets his emotions get the best of him, but he's serving up pizzas out there nightly

the only thing elite about him anymore is his contract

People get so upset at it but it's true. Every Kings game I have watched going back to last year Doughty has been trash defensively. People trying to sell him as a defensive stud is hilarious.

 

[Captain Mountain]

He's in the same value category as any very late 20's/early to mid 30's star player on a massive contract who is still good, but that's being paid more for previous achievements than current performance.

You decide what that's worth.

 

[redcard]

Doughty is very good but the Kings lack depth and talent. However, Doughty is a turnover beast and not many talk about that. Certainly not as good as Pietrangello and Giordano. He's still good but he has flaws. Check out the comparisons in production since 16/17 season


Doughty
- 263 games played
- 25 to 27 minutes of TOI/game
- 393 blocks
- 296 giveaways
- 68 takeaways
- 159 pts
- 34 goals

Every time this gets brought up I spend a half hour trying to find home/away splits for these stats and struggle mightily. The Giveaway/Takeaway stat is highly subjective, each arena has its own statistician recording the stats and what constitutes as a giveaway in one arena might not be considered a giveaway in another. So if you play 41 games in an arena with a statistician who is far from the mean you're going to have relatively skewed statistics. The Staples Center guy has consistently recorded far above average giveaways and far below average takeaways. Everyone on the Kings has a much worse Give/Take ratio at home vs away and its been like this for a couple years now. I've yet to be able to find splits online but from previous posts:

Doughty's Norris season
Doughty had 66 home giveaways, 30 road giveaways.
Muzzin had 44 home giveaways, 24 road giveaways.
Martinez had 41 home giveaways, 19 road giveaways.
Kings had a better home record than away record despite everyone on their team with the same home/away giveway discrepancy.

From last year as of 12/12/2018:

So if you look at home/away splits you'll see that Doughty has a Giveaway/Takeaway of 39/2 at Staples Center compared to 13/5 everywhere else. The Kings defense combined is 117/9 at home, 62/22 away. Obviously, they're in last place and the numbers are going to look bad, but the discrepancy between the splits suggests that the statistician at Staples records giveaways at a much higher rate and takeaways at a much lower late than officials at other arenas.

And here's some sortable team stats: https://morehockeystats.com/teams/givetake
Doesn't give you the home/away splits but you can see how year after year LA is near the top at giveaways and at the bottom in takeaways, regardless of whether they were cup winners or bottom feeders, regardless of coach/system.

And then since I seem to do this every year and still can't find home/away splits, I ran through the box scores for each Kings game this season. Thus far:

In 11 road games, Doughty has 12 giveaways and 5 takeaways. (LA's record 2-8-1 )
In 10 home games, Doughty has 24 giveaways and 2 takeaways. (LA's record 6-4)

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Every time this gets brought up I spend a half hour trying to find home/away splits for these stats and struggle mightily. The Giveaway/Takeaway stat is highly subjective, each arena has its own statistician recording the stats and what constitutes as a giveaway in one arena might not be considered a giveaway in another. So if you play 41 games in an arena with a statistician who is far from the mean you're going to have relatively skewed statistics. The Staples Center guy has consistently recorded far above average giveaways and far below average takeaways. Everyone on the Kings has a much worse Give/Take ratio at home vs away and its been like this for a couple years now. I've yet to be able to find splits online but from previous posts:



From last year as of 12/12/2018:



And here's some sortable team stats: https://morehockeystats.com/teams/givetake
Doesn't give you the home/away splits but you can see how year after year LA is near the top at giveaways and at the bottom in takeaways, regardless of whether they were cup winners or bottom feeders, regardless of coach/system.

And then since I seem to do this every year and still can't find home/away splits, I ran through the box scores for each Kings game this season. Thus far:

In 11 road games, Doughty has 12 giveaways and 5 takeaways. (LA's record 2-8-1 )
In 10 home games, Doughty has 24 giveaways and 2 takeaways. (LA's record 6-4)

It's also kind of a dumbass context-less stat. It's not like Doughty is over here hooking up opponents with centering passes.

I distinctly remember a game vs. the Ducks a couple of years back where he made not one but two saves on an empty net and dumped the puck out perfectly so as not to ice it.

His final stat line was like 30 minutes, +2, no takeaways, 2 giveaways.

Plus all the top puckhogs have a lot of giveaways anyway, it's a byproduct of being an elite transitional d-man playing insane minutes vs. tough competition while having the puck all the damn time. You aren't going to get many takeaways vs. giveaways when you're 60% CF% (not this year, obviously).

You can say you don't want his contract or don't want to part with the necessary assets but to downplay his elite abilities or what he'd mean to a team like Toronto is delusional. You can say the first part without having to double down by going to the second and comparing him to Brent Seabrook. Good grief.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Every time this gets brought up I spend a half hour trying to find home/away splits for these stats and struggle mightily. The Giveaway/Takeaway stat is highly subjective, each arena has its own statistician recording the stats and what constitutes as a giveaway in one arena might not be considered a giveaway in another. So if you play 41 games in an arena with a statistician who is far from the mean you're going to have relatively skewed statistics. The Staples Center guy has consistently recorded far above average giveaways and far below average takeaways. Everyone on the Kings has a much worse Give/Take ratio at home vs away and its been like this for a couple years now. I've yet to be able to find splits online but from previous posts:



From last year as of 12/12/2018:



And here's some sortable team stats: https://morehockeystats.com/teams/givetake
Doesn't give you the home/away splits but you can see how year after year LA is near the top at giveaways and at the bottom in takeaways, regardless of whether they were cup winners or bottom feeders, regardless of coach/system.

And then since I seem to do this every year and still can't find home/away splits, I ran through the box scores for each Kings game this season. Thus far:

In 11 road games, Doughty has 12 giveaways and 5 takeaways. (LA's record 2-8-1 )
In 10 home games, Doughty has 24 giveaways and 2 takeaways. (LA's record 6-4)

Sure, there are errors with the stats. I am not going to argue that. However, do you think errors are made with Doughty only and they are accurate with other players? In other words, doesn't the errors even out over the long span? When I look at each player in the list I showed you, what doesn't belong with your eye test? Doughty only and the rest are ok? See what I am saying? Trends don't lie

Don't be sensitive about it. He's still very good and it's OK to talk about his flaws. Most players have them.

 

[redcard]

Sure, there are errors with the stats. I am not going to argue that. However, do you think errors are made with Doughty only and they are accurate with other players? In other words, doesn't the errors even out over the long span? When I look at each player in the list I showed you, what doesn't belong with your eye test? Doughty only and the rest are ok? See what I am saying? Trends don't lie

Don't be sensitive about it. He's still very good and it's OK to talk about his flaws. Most players have them.

I'm not being sensitive about it, if that's what you took away from my post I suggest you reread it as a criticism of the metric rather than an analysis of the player. I have no problems recognizing the players flaws, that's not my point. My point is to expose the heavy flaws with this specific metric.

Your question "doesn't the errors even out over the long span": Well, no. That's what I'm pointing out. There exists Arena bias in the recognition of giveaways and takeaways. Each player plays 41 games in their own arena with 1 stat guy recording giveaway/takeaways. They then play 41 games in 30 other arenas with 30 different stat guys recording giveaways and takeaways. 50% weight to 1 statistician, 50% combined weight to the other 30.

Away stats should even out over the long span, that should clear out bias's because you're getting the average analysis of 30 different people. But that 1 guy recording stats for 41 games is going to heavily impact the total if he is well outside the mean. I posted stats from 3 different seasons and included other Kings defensemen as well as a link that shows how consistently high the Kings numbers as a whole have been for years. You say trends don't lie, I'm saying the trend that you're pointing out is drastically skewed by the trend that I'm pointing out.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

People get so upset at it but it's true. Every Kings game I have watched going back to last year Doughty has been trash defensively. People trying to sell him as a defensive stud is hilarious.

Yeah, he makes a lot of bad gambles now. The difference now and from 5 years ago is that he doesnt have a cup caliber team around him to allow him to keep taking these huge risks

Teams that have elite level forecheck systems alleviate defensive lapses or deficiencies and the Kings under Sutter were a top notch forecheck team. That team and system is long gone and doughty needing to sit back there and defend the last few years has looked pretty ugly on him

 

[deaderhead28]

Surprised this thread isnt locked by now.Doughty isnt being traded per Kings Management and Doughty wants to stay.

 

[deaderhead28]

The LA Kings are in rebuilding mode and in my opinion they should trade away most of their aging veterans even if that means retaining a lot of salary.
Therefore I'd like to know what other posters think would be a fair compensation salary wise for Doughty for the remaining 7 years plus right now. Bonus points for Kopitar, Kovalchuk, Jeff Carter and Jonathan Quick.

Kopitar isnt being moved either.

 

[Bandit]

If he is so great the Kings can keep him.

Thanks, we will.

Also...

Except the Kings and Leafs are at completely different ends of their window so trying to pretend it is hypocritical is laughable.

hyperbolic and hypocritical are different words, because of the spelling.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yeah, he makes a lot of bad gambles now. The difference now and from 5 years ago is that he doesnt have a cup caliber team around him to allow him to keep taking these huge risks

Teams that have elite level forecheck systems alleviate defensive lapses or deficiencies and the Kings under Sutter were a top notch forecheck team. That team and system is long gone and doughty needing to sit back there and defend the last few years has looked pretty ugly on him

I see we're now at the point where we're retroactively rewriting Doughty's career.

Yeah, no, the criticism of Doughty during that period, believe it or not, is that he wasn't risky enough, that he favored defense over offense, because it was clear when he wanted to break the game open he could (see multiple end to end rushes in WCFs and Cup Finals).

Doughty sitting back and defending in and of itself has never been a problem, he was a no contest top-tier defensive d-man. Last year, his commitment level was the question and no doubt he was probably THE major issue on the roster given he was the lynchpin of the entire defense. The year before that he was the Norris runner up and arguably should have won by carrying the same role. This year he's a roller coaster between both forms, unfortunately, but this idea that he can't defend and it's all unraveling because the team sucks is utter trash and paints him as a passenger instead of the elite player he is and has always been.

In short, LOL at Doughty as 'risky.'

 

[Adele Dazeem]

See what Karlsson was traded for; now subtract a significant amount.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

See what Karlsson was traded for; now subtract a significant amount.

Contract status is clearly different.

But yes, we know your agenda, it's not subtle.

 

[Cosmic avenger]

Would still love him in philly
1st ghost and a couple young prospects like robstov and ratcliffe

 

[Guitpik]

It's pretty much pointless, Blake already stated that he's not going anywhere.

 

[Soapdodger]

So how much do you guys think would the King have to retain from Doughty's salary to get him to fair market value for the rest of the duration of the contract?

 

[Deen]

Doughty would fetch a lot imo. He's still a top 10 Defenceman.

 

[TBF1972]

The problem with Doughty's contract (11M) is that he got it for what he was and does not match the reality of the contract during it's lifetime. Basically his contract is a gift for the Stanley Cups. Very similar to Toews contract. I don't think anybody expected for him to live up to it. If I was the GM I would have traded him and invested in youth, but the game thought there can be a final push for a Cup. From 30 to 36 this contract will be getting worse and worse. I do not know it's value, but I would stay away from it if I was a GM. Maybe just maybe if a team is on the verge of a Stanley Cup and Doughty is the last missing piece to finalize the push.

The problem with the 11 million contract is, that hardly any team can fit it under their salary cap without major shuffling of the deck. So if the Kings aren't ready to take one or two short term cap dumps, there won't be many trade options.

 

[TBF1972]

So how much do you guys think would the King have to retain from Doughty's salary to get him to fair market value for the rest of the duration of the contract?

Retain on a 8 year contract? The absolutely shouldn't retain at all. They would be better advised to take a cap dump with up to three year term, than retain money over 8 years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He's signed till 37 and that means negative value like how some talk about Price?

 

[Habs Halifax]

The problem with the 11 million contract is, that hardly any team can fit it under their salary cap without major shuffling of the deck. So if the Kings aren't ready to take one or two short term cap dumps, there won't be many trade options.

Jets if big buff contract is off the books?

 

[WTFMAN99]

I'd happily get him onto the Leafs roster in the off-season somehow.

 

[LAKings88]

My goodness the Doughty hate is strong in this thread. Not surprised really.

Doughty isn’t going anywhere. If he was available, every gm would inquire about him.

 

[Lt Dan]

So how much do you guys think would the King have to retain from Doughty's salary to get him to fair market value for the rest of the duration of the contract?

 

[bernmeister]

The problem with Doughty's contract (11M) is that he got it for what he was and does not match the reality of the contract during it's lifetime. Basically his contract is a gift for the Stanley Cups. Very similar to Toews contract. I don't think anybody expected for him to live up to it. If I was the GM I would have traded him and invested in youth, but the game thought there can be a final push for a Cup. From 30 to 36 this contract will be getting worse and worse. I do not know it's value, but I would stay away from it if I was a GM. Maybe just maybe if a team is on the verge of a Stanley Cup and Doughty is the last missing piece to finalize the push.

possible difference maker on short term splurge for cup run, but any length deal is killer esp for vets